Imagine This Offseason

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-04-2020, 09:44 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: My only gripes would be that I like Uzomah and you don't release Hart after developing him and in his prime (as much as so many can't stand him). 

To each their own, but Uzomah is a TE who averaged 250 yards through years 2 -5 (doesn't include rookie year and this year).  He's also coming off an achilies tear, which is rather significant injury.  Is he really someone who you want to pay 6.3 million dollars to in the last year of his contract.

If we draft Sewell where do you move Jonah?  RT would obviously make the most sense.  If Jonah moves to RT then where do you put Bobby Hart?  Do you really want to pay Bobby Hart 6.9 million in his last year of his contract too?

I just think these dollars could be allocated a lot better.  Between these two cuts, you could sign a top tier G.

Fwiw, I actually like Uzomah, I just think he's greatly overpaid.  I'd have no problem with him being here at around 3 mil or so.  But 6.3 is way too much for that production history and coming off the injury.

[Geno_Can_Dunk]

(12-04-2020, 05:07 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: To each their own, but Uzomah is a TE who averaged 250 yards through years 2 -5 (doesn't include rookie year and this year).  He's also coming off an achilies tear, which is rather significant injury.  Is he really someone who you want to pay 6.3 million dollars to in the last year of his contract.

If we draft Sewell where do you move Jonah?  RT would obviously make the most sense.  If Jonah moves to RT then where do you put Bobby Hart?  Do you really want to pay Bobby Hart 6.9 million in his last year of his contract too?

I just think these dollars could be allocated a lot better.  Between these two cuts, you could sign a top tier G.

Fwiw, I actually like Uzomah, I just think he's greatly overpaid.  I'd have no problem with him being here at around 3 mil or so.  But 6.3 is way too much for that production history and coming off the injury.

Butting my head into a convo and haven't read most of this thread, which I know is risky, but this was a good point to mention some things I wanted to mention. 

I know you know a great deal about the NFL, but you often really underestimate the market value of many of our players. So you're saying Bobby Hart would be overpaid at 6.9M if he moved into RG? You know what other NFL interior lineman make? 

Zach Fulton of the Texans makes 7M AAV. You're really so dead sure that Hart would be a lesser guard than Zach Fulton? 
Our own Trey Hopkins makes about  6.8. Are they that drastically different? (Imagining Hart as a RG, not RT). 
James Carpenter of Atl makes about 5.25. That's less than Hart but I'd venture to say Hart as a guard, given that his run blocking is better than his pass blocking, would be a better guard than James Carpenter. 

You also sometimes underestimate what dead cap does to a roster. I know Hart's dead cap would only be 1 million, but that means unless you can find a guard obviously better than Hart for 5.9M it doesn't make sense to cut him (in the scenario w/ Sewell you mention; tackles are a different market). And looking at the examples above, I don't know that you can. I know you're adding that to the money saved by cutting Uzomah, but you can't play that game because then we need another TE. We need a lot of things in fact. So when it comes to finding the WR or D-lineman we need, you can't turn around and say use the money saved by cutting Uzomah. You've already used it. 

And then let's look at Uzomah. Leon Hall came back from two achilles tears, so i'm not worried about that. Remember when we re-upped Uzomah, the Bills came in and paid Tyler Kroft - that's right, Tyler frickin' Kroft - roughly the same money. His 2020 cap hit with the Bills is just a hair over 5.44M. Even if you cut Uzomah, leaving another 1M on the cap, and signed Kroft at what the (very successful, by the way) Bills are paying him, you'd then be paying a total of 6.44M (5.44 for Kroft plus the 1M you still owe Uzomah) for Tyler Kroft! You really like that deal? And if your idea is that you'll go out and find a TE clearly better than Uzomah for less than 5M (because remember you're paying him 1M regardless), good luck. At best you'd just end up with an empty shell game. 

I also understand that you mean to throw that 5M back in the pot and use it wherever, not necessarily on a TE, but even that being the case you still need to go through thought experiments like this. I'm sure you don't want Tyler Kroft, but my point is that's what the market will bear if you're out there trying to spend 5M or so on a TE. 

And now let's look at what sort of NFL TE you get for the 3 million bucks you want to pay Uzomah. Per spotrac.com, it's somebody like Josh Hill, who has all of 45 yards on 7 receptions this year, or Lee Smith, who has, I kid you not, 4 whole yards on 2 receptions. And actually 4M because you're already paying Uzomah 1m. You're not getting C.J. Uzomah for 3M my friend. 

Maybe you want to cut a bunch of players to wad the money together to pay a top flight CB or something, but remember you still then have to pay somebody to give you production at the TE and OL spots you just cut, and draft picks can't do it all, and you just handicapped yourself with 2M of dead cap (Hart and Uzomah 1M each). 

This is why we don't cut as many players each year as fans want us to. Don't underestimate how hard it is to replace that production. 

Sorry this post is so long but yours are always long as hell too! :) 

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-04-2020, 07:27 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: Butting my head into a convo and haven't read most of this thread, which I know is risky, but this was a good point to mention some things I wanted to mention. 

I know you know a great deal about the NFL, but you often really underestimate the market value of many of our players. So you're saying Bobby Hart would be overpaid at 6.9M if he moved into RG? You know what other NFL interior lineman make? 

Zach Fulton of the Texans makes 7M AAV. You're really so dead sure that Hart would be a lesser guard than Zach Fulton? 
Our own Trey Hopkins makes about  6.8. Are they that drastically different? (Imagining Hart as a RG, not RT). 
James Carpenter of Atl makes about 5.25. That's less than Hart but I'd venture to say Hart as a guard, given that his run blocking is better than his pass blocking, would be a better guard than James Carpenter. 

You also sometimes underestimate what dead cap does to a roster. I know Hart's dead cap would only be 1 million, but that means unless you can find a guard obviously better than Hart for 5.9M it doesn't make sense to cut him (in the scenario w/ Sewell you mention; tackles are a different market). And looking at the examples above, I don't know that you can. I know you're adding that to the money saved by cutting Uzomah, but you can't play that game because then we need another TE. We need a lot of things in fact. So when it comes to finding the WR or D-lineman we need, you can't turn around and say use the money saved by cutting Uzomah. You've already used it. 

And then let's look at Uzomah. Leon Hall came back from two achilles tears, so i'm not worried about that. Remember when we re-upped Uzomah, the Bills came in and paid Tyler Kroft - that's right, Tyler frickin' Kroft - roughly the same money. His 2020 cap hit with the Bills is just a hair over 5.44M. Even if you cut Uzomah, leaving another 1M on the cap, and signed Kroft at what the (very successful, by the way) Bills are paying him, you'd then be paying a total of 6.44M (5.44 for Kroft plus the 1M you still owe Uzomah) for Tyler Kroft! You really like that deal? And if your idea is that you'll go out and find a TE clearly better than Uzomah for less than 5M (because remember you're paying him 1M regardless), good luck. At best you'd just end up with an empty shell game. 

I also understand that you mean to throw that 5M back in the pot and use it wherever, not necessarily on a TE, but even that being the case you still need to go through thought experiments like this. I'm sure you don't want Tyler Kroft, but my point is that's what the market will bear if you're out there trying to spend 5M or so on a TE. 

And now let's look at what sort of NFL TE you get for the 3 million bucks you want to pay Uzomah. Per spotrac.com, it's somebody like Josh Hill, who has all of 45 yards on 7 receptions this year, or Lee Smith, who has, I kid you not, 4 whole yards on 2 receptions. And actually 4M because you're already paying Uzomah 1m. You're not getting C.J. Uzomah for 3M my friend. 

Maybe you want to cut a bunch of players to wad the money together to pay a top flight CB or something, but remember you still then have to pay somebody to give you production at the TE and OL spots you just cut, and draft picks can't do it all, and you just handicapped yourself with 2M of dead cap (Hart and Uzomah 1M each). 

This is why we don't cut as many players each year as fans want us to. Don't underestimate how hard it is to replace that production. 

Sorry this post is so long but yours are always long as hell too! :) 

You make a lot of good points, and they're well thought out.  You've even hit on some things that I would have replied with (You're right, I don't want Tyler Kroft, I do want the money thrown back into the pool for bigger signing, etc.)

Personally, I think Bobby Hart is overpaid no matter where you put him.  If we're capping the RG position at strictly his replacement value, I'd rather taking my chances on a John Miller, or XSF, or someone like that at 4 mil and under.

But what I'm calling for for that position especially (Guard) is for the team to go out and sign two legitimate starters.  Take a lot of the savings I'm calling for, combine them with our already decent amount of cap space, and be agrressive with this position.  No more patching, or hoping or any of that.  Put Sewell on one end, Jonah on the other, and get yourself two decent guards.  And just be done with it.

As far as TE's, that was one of the other positions I said to target in free agency (the other was LB).  This team needs a legitimate TE1.  I don't think Sample ever can be that.  I doubted Uzomah could before the injury, and now I'm even less sure.

Let's say we don't want to, or simply can't, spend much more on TE due to spending elsewhere.  What about calling up the Bucs and making a play at Brate or Howard?  Both are priced very similarly to Uzomah and neither are coming off an achilies.  Both have proven capable of being more producive and both are under 30.  And I'm guessing you might be able to swing one for around a 5th round pick.

Look at the market our own Tyler Eifert created.  2 years 9.5 mil.  What about a similarly priced vet like that?  What about just drafting a TE and rounds 3 or 4 and rolling with that?  Put the 6 mil elsewhere.  Would we really be that worse off minus a CJ Uzomah?

I just think this team still needs a lot of new faces and energy.  The Bobby Hart's of the world need to hit the road.  And I think with the cap projected to go down that you'll see a rash of cuts you normally wouldn't see, and I'd expect prices, as a whole, to be lower than in typical years.

More than anything, I just want to be creative.  I want to be aggressive.  Bobby Hart's and CJ Uzomah's aren't going to put you over the hump.  Take the savings and bring in some real bonafied players at other positions.  If that means we may have to play a Mike Daniels type of signing over a Geno Atkins, or we keep Mackenzie Alexander rather than WJIII then so be it.

I just want a solidified OL without any questions, and I want to see efforts made to reinvent this roster.  I'm tired of guys like Hart and Uzomah just riding out their entire contracts just because they're already here.  Take some chances.

[Wes Mantooth]

(12-04-2020, 07:27 PM)Geno_Can_Dunk Wrote: Sorry this post is so long but yours are always long as hell too! :) 

Aint that the truth. 

I'm biased of course, but I think long posts at least show some real effort to make your case. You'll certainly get no complaints from me.

[Tiger Teeth]

Wes - You forgot one thing. We'll be minus half the board during that time, with a whole new set of experts joining!

[*SHRacerX*]

(12-04-2020, 05:07 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: To each their own, but Uzomah is a TE who averaged 250 yards through years 2 -5 (doesn't include rookie year and this year).  He's also coming off an achilies tear, which is rather significant injury.  Is he really someone who you want to pay 6.3 million dollars to in the last year of his contract.

If we draft Sewell where do you move Jonah?  RT would obviously make the most sense.  If Jonah moves to RT then where do you put Bobby Hart?  Do you really want to pay Bobby Hart 6.9 million in his last year of his contract too?

I just think these dollars could be allocated a lot better.  Between these two cuts, you could sign a top tier G.

Fwiw, I actually like Uzomah, I just think he's greatly overpaid.  I'd have no problem with him being here at around 3 mil or so.  But 6.3 is way too much for that production history and coming off the injury.

I'm not cutting Hart at this stage.  Cutting an OT that graded 70 but is paid $7 million is a steal.  No one wants to admit it, and that is fine.  But no way am I cutting him at this point.  

As far as CJ goes, I could see you arguing that a WR with his production isn't that valuable but he is a TE that has shown himself to be a solid blocker.  I can see the argument of saying "would you rather have him or Thuney" and the money being used to help with his contract, but I would much rather see guys at the end of their careers cut (AJ, Atknins, Williams) than someone in their prime.  

[BengalsRocker]

(12-04-2020, 01:31 PM)MileHighGrowler Wrote: I would have zero complaints bringing Bienemy in.  My question is whether his expected skillset makes him a HC or an OC.  He can be a phenomenal player developer, scheme creator and overall offensive genius.  But does that mean he should be driving the entire team, on both sides of the ball, and have the relationships in the league/college to bring in the right staff around him?  I just don't know.  He could be the second coming, but I guess I'd almost rather see him in a role where he could focus on the offense alone.  Sometimes the "promotion" to HC just doesn't work.  

Now the deal with him going as a HC somewhere with a GM as a packaged deal is very interesting to me, as the GM would be responsible for helping to fill the other coaching roles, so Bienemy wouldn't be on an island.  

I'm with you on your thoughts.

Who decides a person can make that move to HC anyway?

When you see a prospect completely leapfrog offensive/defense coordinator's position in the NFL(or college level for that matter)to propel into a HC position.

It just seems like a HUGE risk in terms of money spent for a franchise.

Even if that person has the abilities without ever holding experience in coaching, you'd think other coaches/assistants would be hesitant joining them because of it.

You'd think that franchise would encounter a massive uphill battle convincing them the "vision".

Especially a team that has a track record of not making great decisions or winning to begin with.

I realize that taking this chance happens in the NFL.

It just boggles your mind when a team would take these measures with so much at stake.

Usually hiring/having a respected GM could remedy this...   were does that leave us?    

Man I wish Wes' scenario a least in that area would come to fruition!

[BengalFanInNJ]

(12-02-2020, 06:01 PM)fredtoast Wrote: We don't need new uniforms.

I agree, but, they really need to get rid of the white piping on the the sides of the black jerseys.