Patrick Surtain II

[SunsetBengal]

(01-14-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But there’s no pass rushers really worth a top 5 pick. Most of the best value guys are probably going to be 2nd rounders.

Well, my preference is Penei Sewell if he's there at #5.  

[samhain]

(01-14-2021, 12:17 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: Well, my preference is Penei Sewell if he's there at #5.  

I don't see any defender outside of maybe Parsons worth the 5th pick.  This is especially true if 2 QBs go first and there are only 3 non QBs taken in the top 5.  To me, it's almost a lock that it's 2 receivers and Sewell.  If another team falls in love with a 3rd quarterback and trades up, that changes it a bit, but probably not much.  

I'd be just fine with the Bengals taking Parsons at 5, maybe even a bit excited about it.  I suppose if I had to pick another defender, it would be Surtain.  I wouldn't be mad, but I wouldn't be pumped, either.  He needs some work and his chances of making an instant impact are suspect.  Still, as the OP said, Waynes, Bell, Bates, and Surtain would be a nice group to have back there.  

I see zero chance that Jackson returns, so to me, they either roll with Phillips, sign a mid-range FA CB or draft one high.  I'm just not sure that Surtain gets us the most bang for the buck at 5.

As I said, wouldn't hate it, but it's hard to stare potentially elite offensive prospects like Sewell, Smith, and Chase in the face at 5 and not gift them to your young franchise quarterback.  You might not get another chance to.

[DYT_Bengal]

Who do you think is better: Wayne’s or Jackson? Because Wayne’s is being paid 20mthis year.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-14-2021, 01:07 PM)willieFANderson Wrote: Who do you think is better: Wayne’s or Jackson? Because Wayne’s is being paid 20mthis year.

Jackson has been better overall than Waynes according to PFF.
Waynes has only had a PFF grade of 70+ one time across five seasons played. It was 2017, and it was 70.6.
WJ3 has had a PFF grade of 70+ three times out of four seasons played. 2017 (90.2), 2018 (73.4), and 2020 (71.4).

When looking at stats across their careers:
WJ3
games played = 59
INTs = 3
PDs = 41
Sacks = 1.0
Tackles = 150

Waynes
games played = 74
INTs = 7
PDs = 42
FFs = 2
Sacks = 1.0
Tackles = 247

Stat-wise, Waynes makes more tackles and turnovers. However, WJ3 is "stickier" in coverage, defending more passes on a per-game basis.

Also, I think it's more important to look at a player's cap hit, not their yearly cash. Only the cap hit should matter unless a team is incredibly strapped for cash.
His cap hit in 2020 was $10 mill.
His cap hits in 2021 and 2022 are both $16 mill.

The Bengals realistically overpaid for Waynes TBH. But WJ3 might use Waynes' contract to justify himself getting paid $14+ mill APY.
If the Bengals could only pay WJ3 or Bates, who would you rather have? I'd go Bates>WJ3>Waynes.

What might make the most sense is to:
Re-sign WJ3 to a 3-year extension. It can even be at $14 mill APY.
Draft a CB in Rds 1-2 as insurance.
Extend Bates this offseason, but make don't have a big cap hit in 2021.
Plan to only keep Waynes for 2021 and cut/trade him next offseason, as his 2022 dead cap is only going to be $5 mill, freeing up $11 mill in cap space.
For 2022, the drafted CB would take over as the starter in place of Waynes.

[J24]

(01-14-2021, 12:02 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: But there’s no pass rushers really worth a top 5 pick. Most of the best value guys are probably going to be 2nd rounders.

depending on what happens in April I could see a couple edge players move into the top 10. 
Jalean Phillips from Miami and Zaven Collins are two guys I think will shoot up the draft boards come April.

[Gdale_Bengal]

How much man coverage does anarumo run? Surtain is best at man and is just ok at zone.

If he plays more zone then I’m not sure Ud want him. He also seems like a WJ3 clone with bad hands.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-15-2021, 10:30 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: How much man coverage does anarumo run? Surtain is best at man and is just ok at zone.

If he plays more zone then I’m not sure Ud want him. He also seems like a WJ3 clone with bad hands.

He’s got a couple inches on WJ3.

[*rfaulk34*]

(01-15-2021, 10:58 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: He’s got a couple inches on WJ3.

That's what she said. 

[BoomerFan]

I've said it before, I'd keep 7 Corners (and 26 total on the defense) if we had enough talented players to do so. It used to be good defenses started with the defensive line but nowadays more coaches believe in building the secondary first. Corner is a tough position -- sometimes it takes a year at least to get up to speed. Having enough guys to rotate and absorb injuries can mean you're winning more games from late in the year.

So yeah I'd be happy with Surtain if Sewell is gone. I hope we move on from Lou A at some point for the defense to really flourish, and we do need to address the Oline in FA (especially interior) because protecting Burrow is a priority. Regarding that last part though, we can run the ball more if teams aren't putting up a ton of points on us through the air, which would also protect Burrow.