The bFirst Mock (21)

[Hammerstripes]

(01-21-2021, 12:46 PM)bfine32 Wrote: After his workouts he will fly up draft boards. 

I guess.  But you don't make that pick at 5 if he's not one of the best 5 players in the draft.  I don't think he is.

I also don't think that we will see these workout warriors this year with the changes to the combine.  

[Whatever]

(01-22-2021, 02:40 AM)bfine32 Wrote: Funny how sack total becomes the biggest factor now.

Ziggy Ansah had 4.5 sacks in 3 years, Aaron Rodgers had 2500 passing yards his last year in college and never topped 3,000 in his career, Jalen Ramsey had 3 INTs in his college career and 0 in his last.

The kid only played 4 games this year and still had 22 pressures and over an 87 pass rush grade by PFF.

He's not "only" an athletic freak. 

If we're looking at edges because we're at the bottom of the league in sacks, then I think sacks are a pretty important measurement.  After all, if a guy can't finish at the college level, his chances of being able to finish at the pro level are dramatically reduced.

Ziggy Ansah has averaged 6.3 sacks per season for his NFL career.  He has twice as many sub 5 sack seasons(4) as double digit sack seasons (2).  If you're going edge at 5, you should be drafting a guy you think will be the next Khalil Mack, not the next Ziggy Ansah.  

He played 4 games, three of which were against teams with losing records.  Besides which, for things like grading, a larger sample size means more.

[*bfine32*]

(01-22-2021, 01:57 PM)Whatever Wrote: If we're looking at edges because we're at the bottom of the league in sacks, then I think sacks are a pretty important measurement.  After all, if a guy can't finish at the college level, his chances of being able to finish at the pro level are dramatically reduced.

Ziggy Ansah has averaged 6.3 sacks per season for his NFL career.  He has twice as many sub 5 sack seasons(4) as double digit sack seasons (2).  If you're going edge at 5, you should be drafting a guy you think will be the next Khalil Mack, not the next Ziggy Ansah.  

He played 4 games, three of which were against teams with losing records.  Besides which, for things like grading, a larger sample size means more.

In their first 3 years in the NFL both Khalil and Ziggy had 30 sacks. Given Ziggy has fallen off lately but that doesn't change the prospect they were coming out of college. If you can predict that, then you're waisting your time here.


Unsure what the record of KP's opponents have to do with his shown propensity to get after the QB. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-22-2021, 07:24 PM)bfine32 Wrote: In their first 3 years in the NFL both Khalil and Ziggy had 30 sacks. Given Ziggy has fallen off lately but that doesn't change the prospect they were coming out of college. If you can predict that, then you're waisting your time here.


Unsure what the record of KP's opponents have to do with his shown propensity to get after the QB. 

I think it was referring to the talent level of the guys KP was going up against.

[*bfine32*]

(01-22-2021, 07:28 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I think it was referring to the talent level of the guys KP was going up against.

Every LT he went against was a starter in the Big 10; 3 of the 4 were returning starters. You don't become a starting LT in the Big 10 without talent. 

[Whatever]

(01-22-2021, 07:24 PM)bfine32 Wrote: In their first 3 years in the NFL both Khalil and Ziggy had 30 sacks. Given Ziggy has fallen off lately but that doesn't change the prospect they were coming out of college. If you can predict that, then you're waisting your time here.


Unsure what the record of KP's opponents have to do with his shown propensity to get after the QB. 

Why stop at 3 years when rookie deals are 4 years with a 5th year option that you should logically be picking up for a top 5 pick?  Mack had 53 sacks and 4 double digit sack seasons in his first 5 years.  Ansah had 44 sacks and 2 double digit sack years.  On top of that, Ansah had guys like Suh, Nick Fairly, and Haloti Ngata on the DL with him starting out while Mack had basically no one drawing attention away from him.  

Quality of competition is pretty important.  Paye didn't play Wisconsin, OSU, or Iowa.  He had 2 sacks and 3 TFL against a redshirt senior with a 7th round/CFA grade from Minnesota and only had one TFL in his remaining games.  How many draft worthy prospects did he actually go against in those 4 games?

[*bfine32*]

(01-23-2021, 03:16 PM)Whatever Wrote: Why stop at 3 years when rookie deals are 4 years with a 5th year option that you should logically be picking up for a top 5 pick?  Mack had 53 sacks and 4 double digit sack seasons in his first 5 years.  Ansah had 44 sacks and 2 double digit sack years.  On top of that, Ansah had guys like Suh, Nick Fairly, and Haloti Ngata on the DL with him starting out while Mack had basically no one drawing attention away from him.  

Quality of competition is pretty important.  Paye didn't play Wisconsin, OSU, or Iowa.  He had 2 sacks and 3 TFL against a redshirt senior with a 7th round/CFA grade from Minnesota and only had one TFL in his remaining games.  How many draft worthy prospects did he actually go against in those 4 games?

Yet you reference Khalil Mack who hails from the mighty MAC. I'll go out on a limb and suggest scouts put much more stock in Khalil's skill set than they did quality of competition.

I get it; you're not changing your opinion. 

[Whatever]

(01-23-2021, 04:30 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Yet you reference Khalil Mack who hails from the mighty MAC. I'll go out on a limb and suggest scouts put much more stock in Khalil's skill set than they did quality of competition.

I get it; you're not changing your opinion. 

Scouts were probably looking at Mack's Ohio State tape where he had 9 tackles, 2.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, and a 45 yard interception return for a TD.  Plus, he didn't have the production questions Paye has.  

It's a tough sell.  We're talking a guy ranked 14th on average at #5 here.

[Speedy Thomas]

Realize this mock is old news but I thought of Bfine's much-maligned initial mock when I read ESPN's story on Kwity Paye. All I can say is WOW. I mean, there are back stories, and there are experiences that we cannot imagine. Take 10 minutes and read this.

I will pull for Kwity to be successful even if he goes to a division rival.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story/_/id/31310483/meet-nfl-draft-most-extraordinary-prospect-kwity-paye

[Emeritus]

Are these members still here from back when:
Lolli
HammerStripes
Bob 4980
Burma aka "Big Ugglies" ( Which we need now!)

They used to make solid mocks but I didn't see them this time. I wonder if they're still around?
Fine mock as always here as well as the OSUFan catalogs. PS: Pulses was very hard on me this year...

[Hammerstripes]

(04-24-2021, 03:31 PM)Emeritus Wrote: Are these members still here from back when:
Lolli
HammerStripes
Bob 4980
Burma aka "Big Ugglies" ( Which we need now!)

They used to make solid mocks but I didn't see them this time. I wonder if they're still around?
Fine mock as always here as well as the OSUFan catalogs. PS: Pulses was very hard on me this year...

I'm still here.  I just haven't followed the draft as much to really give a deep analysis, but.....  I've been kicking around doing one today.

[Emeritus]

(04-24-2021, 07:00 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I'm still here.  I just haven't followed the draft as much to really give a deep analysis, but.....  I've been kicking around doing one today.

Lets bring you out of retirement and put one up for old times sake!!! He responded!!

[*bfine32*]

(01-18-2021, 03:32 PM)bfine32 Wrote: PK1- Jackson Jaguars- TREVOR LAWRENCE/QB

PK2- NY Jets- PENEI SEWELL/OT

PK3- Miami Dolphins- DEVONTA SMITH/WR

PK4- Atlanta Falcons- JUSTIN FIELDS/QB

PK5- Cincinnati Bengals

RD1- KWITY PAYE/DE (6'4"/277)


At least one dlineman has gone in the first 5 picks of every draft but one in the last 15 years. Why? Because they are valuable. We will have the luxury of picking the top prospect in this draft. KP has the twitch of an undersized tush specialist, but clocks in at 6’4” 275. Dude is a freak athlete. Ran a 4.5 for college scouts and won his state’s High School Long Jump championship. The son of an immigrant from Liberia, hard work has been fused into his DNA. I but a lot of stock in a player’s character and this guy’s is outstanding.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2019/10/11/michigan-football-kwity-paye/3904856002/

RD2- TREY SMITH/OG (6'5"/330)


The term beast gets thrown around too much; but take time to watch this 6’5” 330 pound child move people. Smith came to UT as a highly recruited OT but after a medical scare found his home at RG. This kid has every tool he just needs to technique help due to position move, illness, and a covid season. A little more about his character:
https://www.knoxnews.com/story/sports/college/university-of-tennessee/football/2020/01/13/trey-smith-honors-mother-dorsetta-returning-tennessee-vols/4421903002/

RD3- SPENCER BROWN/OT (6'9"/321)


To complete the right side wall for JB we bring in the 6’9” 321 pound athletic lineman. This kid came into college 100 pounds lighter than he is right now and the gains are weight room, not McDonalds. Dude has 35” arms and can bench over 500 ils. Reminds me of Whitworth; huge guy with not an ounce of fat.  

RD4- TRE’ MCKITTY/TE (6'5"/241)


Kyle Pitts will go in the top half of the first rd and rightly so, but a guy of exact build and similar skill set will drop to the 4th due to getting lost in the shuffle at UGA. Tre transferred from FSU where he was quite productive. If he performs well at the combine stock may rise.

RD5- DEOMMODORE LENOIR/CB (5'11"/202)

Sometimes you see a player and like him for some unknown reason. DL is not particularly fast or big, but he appears to be all heart. Reminds me of our own Mack Alexander or recently departed Daquese Dennard.

RD6- ERROLL THOMPSON/LB (6'1/250)

A one dimensional run defender in the mold of Josh Bynes

RD7- TRAVIS JONES/DT (6'4"/336)

Big man that's still learning the position. Played OG in High School.

EVAN MCPHERSON/K (Who cares)

We need somebody.

Looking back at my first mock last year to see how "my guys" are doing:

My first 2 picks have made the PFF Midseason All Rookie Team:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-2021-midseason-nfl-all-rookie-team-mac-jones-jamarr-chase-micah-parsons


Paye is an NFL version of his college self

Obviously I was higher on Smith than NFL personnel, but I'd be good with him at #2

Spencer Bown had earned the starting RT spot in Buffalo prior to injury

Tre McKitty has made Drew Sample look like a great TE so far

Lenoir has got a couple starts in SF, but really hasn't produced yet

Thompson went undrafted, wen to camp with the Falcons, and I don't believe he's on an active roster

Jones did nothing

I got a Bengal right

[Hammerstripes]

(11-14-2021, 03:42 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Looking back at my first mock last year to see how "my guys" are doing:

My first 2 picks have made the PFF Midseason All Rookie Team:
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-pff-2021-midseason-nfl-all-rookie-team-mac-jones-jamarr-chase-micah-parsons


Paye is an NFL version of his college self

Obviously I was higher on Smith than NFL personnel, but I'd be good with him at #2

Spencer Bown had earned the starting RT spot in Buffalo prior to injury

Tre McKitty has made Drew Sample look like a great TE so far

Lenoir has got a couple starts in SF, but really hasn't produced yet

Thompson went undrafted, wen to camp with the Falcons, and I don't believe he's on an active roster

Jones did nothing

I got a Bengal right

You weren't.  You were higher on him than most team doctors.

[Emeritus]

We love what you do just post.
I'm a fan of you.)