How do Players retiring or being traded impact draft?

[CJD]

(01-25-2021, 03:02 PM)TJHoushmandzadeh Wrote: The ones in bold are all trading up for a top 3 pick.

The Bengals don't have a top 3 pick. They have the 5th pick.

A top 3 pick is extra valuable as you usually get the chance of either the 2nd best QB in the draft or the best non-QB player in the draft. Picking 5th you might be looking at only the 3rd or 4th best QB in the draft. Are you going to break the bank for the 4th QB on your board?

I just provided those to give an idea of what a team would pay to trade up into the general area of the top 5. And, in my summary, I mention the trades that I think would be our "high" and our "low" in terms of what we could hope to get, depending on how far we're willing to drop.

Quote:I'd look at the Bills trade in 2018 and the Bills trade in 2014 as an archetype for what we could get if we choose to move down to the bottom of the top 10 or maybe into the top 15, which is a few 2nds or maybe even a 1st the following year. I'd say the Tennessee trade in 2016 would be our worst case scenario (dropping to 15 and getting an additional 2nd and 3rd).

As for whether a team is willing to break the bank for the 4th QB on their board, that depends. Not every team is going to have the same opinions on every QB. The Broncos may think Trey Lance is worth a top 5 pick whereas NYJ and ATL may think he's merely a top 10 pick. So, if the top 4 picks in the draft are Lawrence, Fields, Wilson and Sewell, Denver may be eager to move up to 5 to snag him. To them, maybe he was QB2 or QB3. If you think you can succeed with a QB, you go get them, even if a few other QBs were selected before them. This is a very top heavy draft in terms of QBs, so being the 4th best QB prospect in this draft doesn't necessarily have any bearing on whether they're worth a top 5 pick or not.

[Big Boss]

If Deshaun Watson goes to the Jets, you figure the Texans take that #2 pick. If the Texans get Sam Darnold as well, then Penei Sewell could still go here.