SHRacerX Mock 10.0 2021: Skeptics draft, not much FA

[*SHRacerX*]

I tried to make this one as realistic (pessimistic?) as possible. Next to no FA from outside, and we lose WJIII. That being said, I am sure to be killed for waiting until the third round to draft a CB. I will venture to say that if they can't sign WJIII they will sign a solid FA CB to be his replacement, but won't command the money of WJIII. Like I said, trying to be realistic.

So here goes with the FA:

Carl Lawson signed for 4 years, 50 million. I don't think he gets more on the open market, and guaranteed dollars will be the big issue given his injury history, but I think he earned it. Folks will say: "We sucked with him", but you don't get better by not retaining your best pass rusher.

Mackenzie Alexander signed for 3 years, 16 million.

I don't know the dollars at all, but I want Huber and Clark retained as well.

Cuts: Geno Atkins, Bobby Hart

The draft: Knowing what I know about the lack of FA at this point, the draft has a lot of work to fill some gaps. I didn't do any trades and FWIW, Chase was gone. I still really want him and see him as a Devonta Adams-type. Watch how that guy plays this weekend. He simply can't be stopped. He opens up everything for that offense. That is how I see Chase. Regardless, Miami took him and I was pissed.

R1 P5 OT Penei Sewell - Oregon: He becomes the LT for the next 10 years.

R2 P6 DL Daviyon Nixon - Iowa: Underrated beast inside that can play three downs.

R3 P5 CB Greg Newsome II - Northwestern: Will push to start outside. A real playmaker.

R4 P6 WR Dyami Brown - North Carolina: Perfect #3 option that has speed and is a tenacious blocker and competitor

R5 P5 EDGE Jordan Smith - UAB: Was a part of a credit card theft scam in his first college stint and had to go to a JUCO, then worked back to UAB. If he had not been in trouble, he would be a day 2 prospect. Freak athlete with great motor.

R6 P6 LB Amen Ogbongbemiga - Oklahoma State: Tackling machine that has experience in defending wide-open offenses.

R7 P5 TE Shaun Beyer - Iowa: Had a lot of unfortunate injuries in college and was stuck behind the likes of Kittle, Fant, and Hockenson. Underrated talent that could push for starting time. All-around TE.

R7 P7 K Alex Kessman - Pitt ; Accurate thunderfoot. Huge leg. Used to kicking in poor climate and not always on best field (Heinz).

I wanted a guard, but there simply was no value early on. I didn't want to take Deonte Brown in the 3rd over the CB from NW. Simply put, the guards in Rd 4 I didn't see as strong as what they have in XSF and Spain. I am willing to bet they find a serviceable guard in FA, but like I said, I wasn't counting on it.

[schroomytunes]

I think your probably right about the FA's, as I expect us to focus on some of our own, and bring in solid vets to fill the roster. It wont be like last year but I expect some decent FA's. I also think some guys will most likely be cut or not re-signed.

Our Re-signs:

1) Carl Lawson-Edge
2) Mackenzie Alexander-Slot CB
3) Kevin Huber-P
4) Quinten Spain- G
5) Mike Thomas-WR/ST Gunner
6) Brandon Wilson-S/ KR
7) Brandon Allen-QB

Cutsreplacement)
1) Bobby Hart 5.9- (draft)
2) Geno Atkins 9.6- (draft)
3) Ryan Finley 1.05 (draft)
4) Michael Jordan .975 (FA)
5) BJ Finney 3.5 (draft)
6) Trey Hopkins- injury settlement, as he will miss most of the year.

-@21/24 million to be added to cap spending, depending on Hopkins

Outside FA's
1) Austin Reiter-C (Chiefs)-young C to pair with Burrow
2) Matt Feiler- G/RT (Steelers)- solid swing guy that can play multiple spots
3) Gareon Conley-CB (Texans)- coming off injury, might be able to get him on a 1yr deal for depth.
4) Isaiah McKenzie-WR (Bills)- speedy type reciever, becomes an Edelman type pickup for us.

-tried to use the conservative approach to upgrading the roster

Draft: (PFN Simulator)
-I see a trade down to acquire at least a 3rd round pick this draft:

1) (7Det) Christian Darrisaw-RT (Va.Tech)- starts at RT

2) Davion Nixon-DT (Iowa)- starts next to DJ Reader

3) Seth Williams- WR (Auburn) -solid #3 X receiver 6'2 225, runs 4.4/4.5

3) (139Det) Camryn Bynum-CB (Cal) - solid #4 CB depth

4) Tommy Kraemer- G (ND) 6'6 320, could be future RG, at most solid backup.

5) Chris Rumph-Edge (Duke) 6'4 240 Edge guy, can be used in certain packages

6) Amen Ogbongmeiba-LB (Okla St)- good LB depth, replaces Bynes

7) Riley Patterson- K (Memphis) -strong leg, worth a shot.

7) Shane Buechle-QB (SMU) 6'1 210, nice developmental arm to groom

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2021, 01:24 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I tried to make this one as realistic (pessimistic?) as possible.  Next to no FA from outside, and we lose WJIII.  That being said, I am sure to be killed for waiting until the third round to draft a CB.  I will venture to say that if they can't sign WJIII they will sign a solid FA CB to be his replacement, but won't command the money of WJIII.  Like I said, trying to be realistic.

So here goes with the FA:

Carl Lawson signed for 4 years, 50 million.  I don't think he gets more on the open market, and guaranteed dollars will be the big issue given his injury history, but I think he earned it.  Folks will say:  "We sucked with him", but you don't get better by not retaining your best pass rusher.  

Mackenzie Alexander signed for 3 years, 16 million.

I don't know the dollars at all, but I want Huber and Clark retained as well.

Cuts:  Geno Atkins, Bobby Hart

The draft:  Knowing what I know about the lack of FA at this point, the draft has a lot of work to fill some gaps.  I didn't do any trades and FWIW, Chase was gone.  I still really want him and see him as a Devonta Adams-type.  Watch how that guy plays this weekend.  He simply can't be stopped.  He opens up everything for that offense.  That is how I see Chase. Regardless, Miami took him and I was pissed.

R1 P5 OT Penei Sewell - Oregon:  He becomes the LT for the next 10 years.

R2 P6 DL Daviyon Nixon - Iowa:  Underrated beast inside that can play three downs.

R3 P5 CB Greg Newsome II - Northwestern:  Will push to start outside.  A real playmaker.  

R4 P6 WR Dyami Brown - North Carolina:  Perfect #3 option that has speed and is a tenacious blocker and competitor

R5 P5 EDGE Jordan Smith - UAB:  Was a part of a credit card theft scam in his first college stint and had to go to a JUCO, then worked back to UAB.  If he had not been in trouble, he would be a day 2 prospect.  Freak athlete with great motor.  

R6 P6 LB Amen Ogbongbemiga - Oklahoma State:  Tackling machine that has experience in defending wide-open offenses.  

R7 P5 TE Shaun Beyer - Iowa:  Had a lot of unfortunate injuries in college and was stuck behind the likes of Kittle, Fant, and Hockenson.  Underrated talent that could push for starting time.  All-around TE.

R7 P7 K Alex Kessman - Pitt ;  Accurate thunderfoot.  Huge leg.  Used to kicking in poor climate and not always on best field (Heinz).

I wanted a guard, but there simply was no value early on.  I didn't want to take Deonte Brown in the 3rd over the CB from NW.  Simply put, the guards in Rd 4 I didn't see as strong as what they have in XSF and Spain.  I am willing to bet they find a serviceable guard in FA, but like I said, I wasn't counting on it.

I like a lot of it.
I'd prefer a DE taken earlier but I understand you can't fill everything early without trades.
Jordan Smith sounds like he could be a good developmental guy and be part of a rotation at the start, but there will be people against his off-field character red flags.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-25-2021, 01:10 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I like a lot of it.
I'd prefer a DE taken earlier but I understand you can't fill everything early without trades.
Jordan Smith sounds like he could be a good developmental guy and be part of a rotation at the start, but there will be people against his off-field character red flags.

From what I learned of it, he has been a model citizen and both his JUCO coach and UAB coach had nothing but positives to say about his character, but it is still a part of the reason why he is here, no doubt.  He really stood out on film.  

Don't forget the 2nd round pick on Nixon.  He could be a beast next to Reader and helps the end spots by pushing the pocket.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-26-2021, 11:42 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: From what I learned of it, he has been a model citizen and both his JUCO coach and UAB coach had nothing but positives to say about his character, but it is still a part of the reason why he is here, no doubt.  He really stood out on film.  

Don't forget the 2nd round pick on Nixon.  He could be a beast next to Reader and helps the end spots by pushing the pocket.  

I haven't forgotten about Nixon. I like that pick. But I still think the Bengals need another edge rusher to rotate with Hubbard and Lawson. I actually prefer Hubbard playing inside on passing downs, as I don't think he's a good enough pure edge rusher. I don't care for the other DEs on the roster aside from Hubbard and Lawson.

[BenZoo2]

(01-24-2021, 01:24 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I tried to make this one as realistic (pessimistic?) as possible. Next to no FA from outside, and we lose WJIII. That being said, I am sure to be killed for waiting until the third round to draft a CB. I will venture to say that if they can't sign WJIII they will sign a solid FA CB to be his replacement, but won't command the money of WJIII. Like I said, trying to be realistic.

So here goes with the FA:

Carl Lawson signed for 4 years, 50 million. I don't think he gets more on the open market, and guaranteed dollars will be the big issue given his injury history, but I think he earned it. Folks will say: "We sucked with him", but you don't get better by not retaining your best pass rusher.

Mackenzie Alexander signed for 3 years, 16 million.

I don't know the dollars at all, but I want Huber and Clark retained as well.

Cuts: Geno Atkins, Bobby Hart

The draft: Knowing what I know about the lack of FA at this point, the draft has a lot of work to fill some gaps. I didn't do any trades and FWIW, Chase was gone. I still really want him and see him as a Devonta Adams-type. Watch how that guy plays this weekend. He simply can't be stopped. He opens up everything for that offense. That is how I see Chase. Regardless, Miami took him and I was pissed.

R1 P5 OT Penei Sewell - Oregon: He becomes the LT for the next 10 years.

R2 P6 DL Daviyon Nixon - Iowa: Underrated beast inside that can play three downs.

R3 P5 CB Greg Newsome II - Northwestern: Will push to start outside. A real playmaker.

R4 P6 WR Dyami Brown - North Carolina: Perfect #3 option that has speed and is a tenacious blocker and competitor

R5 P5 EDGE Jordan Smith - UAB: Was a part of a credit card theft scam in his first college stint and had to go to a JUCO, then worked back to UAB. If he had not been in trouble, he would be a day 2 prospect. Freak athlete with great motor.

R6 P6 LB Amen Ogbongbemiga - Oklahoma State: Tackling machine that has experience in defending wide-open offenses.

R7 P5 TE Shaun Beyer - Iowa: Had a lot of unfortunate injuries in college and was stuck behind the likes of Kittle, Fant, and Hockenson. Underrated talent that could push for starting time. All-around TE.

R7 P7 K Alex Kessman - Pitt ; Accurate thunderfoot. Huge leg. Used to kicking in poor climate and not always on best field (Heinz).

I wanted a guard, but there simply was no value early on. I didn't want to take Deonte Brown in the 3rd over the CB from NW. Simply put, the guards in Rd 4 I didn't see as strong as what they have in XSF and Spain. I am willing to bet they find a serviceable guard in FA, but like I said, I wasn't counting on it.

Solid, and realistic. I appreciate the fact you put so much time and effort in explaining your rationale. No matter what you do in rd2 it will be easy for someone to say I can’t believe you waited until round ? to address position ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*Synric*]

Jordan Smith might still go day two. He's one of those 6'6 freak athletes that could have been a TE with his flexibility and body control. He destroyed offensive linemen at the JUCO level and was dominant at UAB in the AAC. I think Dane Brugler has a second round grade on him.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-26-2021, 12:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I haven't forgotten about Nixon. I like that pick. But I still think the Bengals need another edge rusher to rotate with Hubbard and Lawson. I actually prefer Hubbard playing inside on passing downs, as I don't think he's a good enough pure edge rusher. I don't care for the other DEs on the roster aside from Hubbard and Lawson.

I think Kareem did a pretty damn good job as a rookie.  Didn't get a ton of sacks, but contained well and had pressures.

That being said, I wonder why they haven't tried ADG more as a pass rusher?   It was his highest rated trait coming out of college.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-26-2021, 05:30 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I think Kareem did a pretty damn good job as a rookie.  Didn't get a ton of sacks, but contained well and had pressures.

That being said, I wonder why they haven't tried ADG more as a pass rusher?   It was his highest rated trait coming out of college.  

Kareem had a total of 4 pressures all season. 2 hurries, 1 knockdown, 1 sack. He played 259 defensive snaps.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KareKh00.htm

For comparison, here are Lawson's and Hubbards pressures vs snaps:
Lawson - 44 pressures (12 hurries, 23 knockdowns, 5.5 sacks) on 723 snaps
Hubbard - 18 pressures (8 hurries, 8 knockdowns, 2 sacks) on 664 snaps

When doing pressures per snap ratio:
Kareem - 0.0154 PPS
Lawson - 0.0609 PPS
Hubbard - 0.0271 PPS

Kareem did have 19 tackles, which is a higher tackles-per-snap ratio than Lawson though:
Kareem - 0.0733 TPS
Lawson - 0.0497 TPS

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-26-2021, 05:58 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Kareem had a total of 4 pressures all season. 2 hurries, 1 knockdown, 1 sack. He played 259 defensive snaps.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/K/KareKh00.htm

For comparison, here are Lawson's and Hubbards pressures vs snaps:
Lawson - 44 pressures (12 hurries, 23 knockdowns, 5.5 sacks) on 723 snaps
Hubbard - 18 pressures (8 hurries, 8 knockdowns, 2 sacks) on 664 snaps

When doing pressures per snap ratio:
Kareem - 0.0154 PPS
Lawson - 0.0609 PPS
Hubbard - 0.0271 PPS

Kareem did have 19 tackles, which is a higher tackles-per-snap ratio than Lawson though:
Kareem - 0.0733 TPS
Lawson - 0.0497 TPS

So, he had a greater tackle per snap, slightly less than half Hubbards pressures per snap, played largely on rushing downs, and was a rookie.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-27-2021, 09:48 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: So, he had a greater tackle per snap, slightly less than half Hubbards pressures per snap, played largely on rushing downs, and was a rookie.  

The Bengals need an improved pass rush now, not wait and bank on Kareem to eventually become a good pass rusher.
He was a solid run defender and had flex position potential as 4-3 base DE and swing inside on passing downs, but he was not some prolific pass rusher in college either.

Look, I never said I wanted him off the roster. I just think the Bengals need to invest in better pass rushers.
For Kareem long term, I see a guy who could become a good run defender on early downs and may get around 3-5 sacks a year.
There's a role for him, but I'd be shocked to see him become some 8+ sack a year guy.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-27-2021, 11:53 AM)ochocincos Wrote: The Bengals need an improved pass rush now, not wait and bank on Kareem to eventually become a good pass rusher.
He was a solid run defender and had flex position potential as 4-3 base DE and swing inside on passing downs, but he was not some prolific pass rusher in college either.

Look, I never said I wanted him off the roster. I just think the Bengals need to invest in better pass rushers.
For Kareem long term, I see a guy who could become a good run defender on early downs and may get around 3-5 sacks a year.
There's a role for him, but I'd be shocked to see him become some 8+ sack a year guy.

I hear ya, but I think he is a solid piece and showed me a lot as a rookie without preseason.  I want a guy like Nixon or Barmore to push the pocket and help the DEs.  I think the middle of the line was a much bigger issue than the outside.  I look at how Washington has built their defensive line.  It isn't all Chase Young, but he will get crazy stats thanks in part to the two studs in the middle of the defense.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-28-2021, 10:10 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I hear ya, but I think he is a solid piece and showed me a lot as a rookie without preseason.  I want a guy like Nixon or Barmore to push the pocket and help the DEs.  I think the middle of the line was a much bigger issue than the outside.  I look at how Washington has built their defensive line.  It isn't all Chase Young, but he will get crazy stats thanks in part to the two studs in the middle of the defense.  

I agree with you that IDL is a bigger need, but I don't want them to ONLY go IDL. I want another edge guy because...
1) I don't think Hubbard is a great edge rusher. He's solid, but not great. He's better at flexing inside on passing downs IMO.
2) Hubbard is entering the last year of his contract, could leave in FA in 2022. If he leaves, the pass rush gets even worse.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-28-2021, 10:40 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I agree with you that IDL is a bigger need, but I don't want them to ONLY go IDL. I want another edge guy because...
1) I don't think Hubbard is a great edge rusher. He's solid, but not great. He's better at flexing inside on passing downs IMO.
2) Hubbard is entering the last year of his contract, could leave in FA in 2022. If he leaves, the pass rush gets even worse.

I like Hubbard more than most and I chalk up a lot of this year with him to injury and pathetic interior defensive line play.

What do you think about ADG as a situational pass rusher?  And I wish they would use more of the LBs and secondary on the occasional blitz.  So rare they do that, but Phillips had a hell of a game rushing Jackson in the first baltimore game.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-28-2021, 10:44 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I like Hubbard more than most and I chalk up a lot of this year with him to injury and pathetic interior defensive line play.

What do you think about ADG as a situational pass rusher?  And I wish they would use more of the LBs and secondary on the occasional blitz.  So rare they do that, but Phillips had a hell of a game rushing Jackson in the first baltimore game.  

ADG may end up being a good blitzer, but it's not like he was some elite pass rusher in college. His most sacks in a season was 5.0.
He's also only 224 lbs. That's on the lower end for stack LBs, let alone pass rushers. Dude has to win by using his speed and agility avoiding contact with OL. He's not going to be able to win if he gets tangled up with an OL.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-28-2021, 11:05 AM)ochocincos Wrote: ADG may end up being a good blitzer, but it's not like he was some elite pass rusher in college. His most sacks in a season was 5.0.
He's also only 224 lbs. That's on the low end for stack LBs, let alone pass rushers. Dude has to win by using his speed and agility avoiding contact with OL. He's not going to be able to win if he gets tangled up with an OL.

There is no way he is 224 now.  Been trying to verify his weight.  Don't trust roster at all.  Dude looks every bit of 245 lbs.  And he has a tremendous lean...no idea how he stays up, but he defies gravity.  You must not have seen much of his college tape, but the kid has skills we never explored.  Typical.  

[*ochocincos*]

(01-28-2021, 11:08 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: There is no way he is 224 now.  Been trying to verify his weight.  Don't trust roster at all.  Dude looks every bit of 245 lbs.  And he has a tremendous lean...no idea how he stays up, but he defies gravity.  You must not have seen much of his college tape, but the kid has skills we never explored.  Typical.  

If he is around that size now, I think it's more realistic for him moving to EDGE.
However, the coaches would really need to develop him as an edge rusher if they want him to do it more than once or twice a game.
I'd be hesitant though to take focus away from off-ball LB, as I didn't think he was good this past year. Also, the Bengals have both Bynes and Evans hitting FA and so many other needs to address in the offseason that they probably can't afford to move a LB to EDGE.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-28-2021, 11:19 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If he is around that size now, I think it's more realistic for him moving to EDGE.
However, the coaches would really need to develop him as an edge rusher if they want him to do it more than once or twice a game.
I'd be hesitant though to take focus away from off-ball LB, as I didn't think he was good this past year. Also, the Bengals have both Bynes and Evans hitting FA and so many other needs to address in the offseason that they probably can't afford to move a LB to EDGE.

I thought about that, but was hoping Bailey would become the eventual starter at WILL, and we already have Wilson and Pratt as the nickel starters.  They need edge presence, as you said earlier, a lot more than depth at LB and I don't see why it would disrupt his development.  It would just get the most out of him. 

[*ochocincos*]

(01-28-2021, 11:38 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I thought about that, but was hoping Bailey would become the eventual starter at WILL, and we already have Wilson and Pratt as the nickel starters.  They need edge presence, as you said earlier, a lot more than depth at LB and I don't see why it would disrupt his development.  It would just get the most out of him. 

IMO ADG needs to put his full focus into one role because he's not good at any role yet. He's had flashes, but he's not starter-quality anywhere.
If he splits time between learning EDGE and growing as an off-ball LB, it's probably going to just make him lackluster at both. I'd rather him get good at one position then look to expand to another position after that.

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-28-2021, 11:54 AM)ochocincos Wrote: IMO ADG needs to put his full focus into one role because he's not good at any role yet. He's had flashes, but he's not starter-quality anywhere.
If he splits time between learning EDGE and growing as an off-ball LB, it's probably going to just make him lackluster at both. I'd rather him get good at one position then look to expand to another position after that.

Right now, I look at ADG as a backup LB that weight was added to and he might have lost some of his speed.  If he is able to provide something as an outside edge rusher as a 4th round pick, I am all over it.