Rebuild the Roster Offseason and Mock

[Crowe]

I like to see how creative I can get with managing the offseason and the draft for our beloved Bengals. I did a complete overhaul of the roster. I cut several vets and underwhelming players and signed a few key free agents. Before anyone says that this player or that player is going to go for more, consider that all my signings with exception of some of the smaller ones were in line with projected signings. Carl Lawson is not projected to get anywhere near 15mil/per. I've actually seen a few places peg him in the 8-10mil range so take this into consideration before you get your panties in a bunch and honestly try to enjoy what I did and give me input on what you would like to do as well.

KEY CUTS:

Geno - this hurts as he is my all-time favorite, but at this point, we can't keep him at his cap and age
Gio - good all-around guy who's been underused and is overpaid
Bobby - stinks
XSF - solid stop-gap/backup but not for almost 4mil per year
CJ Uzo - good dude and made plays from time to time, but grossly overpaid
BJ Finney - better pro career than Price, but Price is younger and I'm hoping the signing of Pollack helps him grow as a player
Josh Tupou - Hasn't done much in his time as a pro even though you'd get the vibe that he would flash some talent

RESTRUCTURES:
Trey Waynes - overpaid, but definitely a need
Joe Mixon - great player, but I'd convert some of his salary to a bonus to free up some extra cap
Trey Hopkins - average player at best, good to have, but could be a cut candidate for this, I think a restructure works here.

These moves along with parting ways with a few PS players created 77mil in cap space.

INTERNAL RESIGNINGS:
Carl Lawson - 9.5 per on a 4-year deal. Seen projections of 4yr/35ish so this is a solid deal for a guy who has great ability but still needs to show he can become a dominant player

Mack Alexander - 5.5 per on a 3 year. Projections close to 3yr/18mil. Like that he's a good tackler and tough player. Helps in the slot.

Christian Covington - 1.7mil/yr on a 2-year deal. Solid depth and can come in and give starters a breather

Kevin Huber - 1.8mil/yr on 2 years. Probably finishes out his career after this, but continues to be one of the more consistent punters in the NFL

Brandon Wilson - 1.3mil/yr on a 2-year deal. Great returner, but hasn't shown much as extra safety. Still young and has excellent athleticism.

Samaje Perine - 775k/yr on a 1-year deal. Played well last year once given a chance. Uses this year to prove whether it was a fluke or not.

Brandon Allen - 1.75mil/yr on a 2-year deal. Showed he has some ability to come in when needed. With an improved roster, he could be a very solid backup to Burrow.

Mitchell Wilcox - 575k/yr on a 1-year deal. Had promise coming out of college last year as a UDFA. Gets a chance to show if he's a capable backup.

KEY OUTSIDE FREE AGENTS:
Taylor Moton - 14.5mil/yr on a 4-year deal. Finally a good offensive lineman at RT. Young and gives us two talented tackles that start.

Joe Thuney - 13mil/yr on a 5-year deal. Ohio boy that is very durable and solid in all aspects. Comes home to Ohio to help protect Joe and does it a lesser value than his projected 13.9. Pair him next to Jonah and this is a good thing.

Ryan Kerrigan - 7mil/yr on a 2-year deal. He's going to be 33, but he would bring tremendous value not only as a pass rusher but as a vet who could help the younger guys. Not sure about his market value, but I have a hard time seeing anything above 9-10 mil unless it is a 1 year deal.

Gareon Conley - 4.5mil/yr on a 2-year deal. Hard to project what he gets. Draft only a few seasons ago and has already been traded. Has a ton of athleticism, but needs to prove he can be more than what he is.

I've done a number of mock drafts and wouldn't have anything against getting Sewell, Slater, or Darrisaw in the first, but due to addressing the line in free agency, I was able to open up my draft to try and address other needs.


17.

Kyle Pitts 

TE Florida
- traded back to try and load up on a few extra picks. Dude is a matchup nightmare, WR with the build of a TE. He would open up the field so much for Boyd and Higgins and he's the type of player that could help Burrow become great.


38.

Zaven Collins 

LB Tulsa
- was hoping for Creed Humphrey, but he went a couple picks ahead. Collins gives us an explosive athlete that can cover rb's and TE's as well as rush the passer. Seen as a mid to late 1st rounder so this is great value here.



43.

Jaelan Phillips

EDGE Miami (FL)
- our first pass-rusher of the draft. Has good size and is quick. Can rotate in with Kerrigan and Hubbard as well as play outside in a 3-4 if we go that route.


48.

Landon Dickerson

OC Alabama
- Good consolation for not getting Humphrey. One of the better interior lineman in the draft and allows us to move Trey to backup C/G


69.

Patrick Jones

EDGE Pitt
- Second pass-rusher drafted. We had a problem creating pressure and sacks this year which meant our LB's and secondary had to play even better. Jones is one of the top pass-rushers in this year's draft and gives us a better rotation which we saw how effective our line was back in '15 when we had a great season.


78.

Dillon Radunz

OT North Dakota State

- not sure how Dillon projects, but he's been rated between the 2-4th rounds so here we get at worst a solid backup at tackle.


105.

Elijah Moore

WR Mississippi

- Mississippi has a recent history of producing super athletic WR's. Elijah Moore is next in line. Gives us a great compliment to our WR core. Body, Higgins, Pitts, Tate, Sample, and Moore screams depth and matchup nightmares.


128.

Jaylen Twyman

DT Pittsburgh
-reminds me of an Aaron Donald/Geno Atkins hybrid. Produces a great interior pass rush which helps our DE's get more 1v1's.


136.

Shaka Toney

EDGE Penn State
- And the next pass rusher on our roster is Toney. A guy who may need a 1 or 2 to groom, but could be a nice replacement for Kerrrigan or Hubbard should they Retire/Leave.


169.

Deommodore Lenoir

CB Oregon
- smooth CB to add to a pretty decent group. Takes over for Phillips if he leaves after this year.


201.

Jordon Scott

DT Oregon
- depth along the line.


208.

Brian Robinson 

RB Alabama
- gives us some competition amongst the backup rb's.

[*Synric*]

If Jaelan Phillips passes his combine physical he will go in the teens. There is alot of talk that Phillips is the best edge in the draft class.

Also you cannot restructure Trae Waynes deal be because it would make his 2022 cap hit/cut in the 20m and Mixon restructure would make it more difficult to move on from him if they want to at the end of his contract.

[Hammerstripes]

Wow. I'm kinda speechless. I doubt any of those guys are going to restructure their contracts. I also cringe when we start to cut good locker room guys that are still productive.

You need guys that know the system both as starters and as depth. I'm not cutting XSF, Gio or Bobby Hart. If Cj comes back ok, I wouldn't cut him either.

This team isn't that far away. Add 1 good FA lineman and add offensive skill guys and pass rushers in the draft and this team could make some noise next year.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-30-2021, 04:13 PM)Synric Wrote: If Jaelan Phillips passes his combine physical he will go in the teens. There is alot of talk that Phillips is the best edge in the draft class.

Also you cannot restructure Trae Waynes deal be because it would make his 2022 cap hit/cut in the 20m and Mixon restructure would make it more difficult to move on from him if they want to at the end of his contract.

This is the problem with restructures. From the way they are portrayed, it sounds like the player is willing to take less money to help field a better team. But what it actually is doing is just pushing the ball further down the road. You may save some cap for 2021, but you're going to pay more in 2022 (and beyond) because the new bonus money is spread across the remaining years of the contract.

What the Bengals really need to probably do is seriously assess the value that both Waynes and Mixon bring in 2021, as both could be cap casualties in 2022. Mixon has the 7th largest AAV amongst RBs, so he needs to at least produce in the Top 10 to justify his contract. Waynes has the 9th highest AAV amongst CBs, so he needs to produce at least in the Top 15.
If neither hits those thresholds, I'd definitely look to cut/trade in 2022.
Moving on from Waynes in 2022 would free up $11 mill in cap space, Mixon would free up $3.2 mill in 2022 but then $12.85 mill in 2023 and $13 mill in 2024.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2021, 01:14 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Wow.  I'm kinda speechless.  I doubt any of those guys are going to restructure their contracts.  I also cringe when we start to cut good locker room guys that are still productive.

You need guys that know the system both as starters and as depth.  I'm not cutting XSF, Gio or Bobby Hart.  If Cj comes back ok, I wouldn't cut him either.

This team isn't that far away.  Add 1 good FA lineman and add offensive skill guys and pass rushers in the draft and this team could make some noise next year.

Not far away from what? A winning record? Making the playoffs? Or winning in the playoffs?

We don't know what the defense is going to look like with Reader and Waynes back, but we saw it that the beginning of the year with Reader and it wasn't a good defense. At this point, you can't honestly say you aren't worried about Atkins unless you are a blind optimist.
You also have the possibility of Lawson and/or WJ3 leaving. If either or both leave, that's more holes you have to fill in the offseason.

You also need more than just 1 good FA OL added. There was not a single spot on the OL who was good both against the run and pass last year. Williams and Hopkins were the only good pass blockers. Hart and Redmond were the only good run blockers. If you add only one new OL, you're looking at MAYBE having an OL in the 20-25 range. We (or at least I) want the OL to be Top 15. If you don't upgrade TE and Uzomah doesn't get back to his pre-injured Achilles, you're looking at another bottom-tier TE again in terms of pass catching production.

Look, it's natural to be worried about regressing, but there really isn't much room to regress. The team gained only 2.5 wins from 2019 to 2020. If they keep all the guys you talk about, they probably only end up with 6-8 wins at the end of the season. 
Is that satisfactory?
It's not for me.
We've gone 5 years without having a winning record, let alone a playoff appearance. I'm tired of waiting for them to get back. I want a playoff appearance in 2021.

Why not take the gamble on losing Gio, Uzomah, Hart, etc. and try to better allocate those funds on upgrades? At worst, the team goes back down to 2-3 wins. Not really any different than 4-5 wins.

[Crowe]

(01-30-2021, 04:13 PM)Synric Wrote: If Jaelan Phillips passes his combine physical he will go in the teens. There is alot of talk that Phillips is the best edge in the draft class.

Also you cannot restructure Trae Waynes deal be because it would make his 2022 cap hit/cut in the 20m and Mixon restructure would make it more difficult to move on from him if they want to at the end of his contract.

Hopefully they address the offensive line in free agency, but I want to see the team get aggressive with addressing the pass rush as well. If Phillips is there in the 2nd I'm taking him otherwise I may look at Creed Humphrey. 

As far as the restructure goes, are they not able to convert some of the salary to a bonus to free up cap without the hit later on? I'm really not sure on how that works.

[samhain]

It'd be great, but I think there's less than zero chance that Lawson signs for 9.5 mil per year. You'd be lucky to get him for 12.

[Bengalstripes9]

Not very realistic. Why does Pitts fall that far in the draft for one? The restructures aren’t happening. You start talking about restructuring, you might as well say goodbye to those players. I’m okay with a couple cuts, but why all the hate for Uzo? Him and Burrow had great chemistry out of the gate. He’s a great locker room guy—as is Gio (who played well this year too). No way we can resign those players that cheap. No way we can afford to sign that many high profile outsiders as well. Would I like the end result of this roster? I think it’s an upgrade (with the exception of corner). Do I think it’s at all realistic? No.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-02-2021, 11:36 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: Not very realistic. Why does Pitts fall that far in the draft for one? The restructures aren’t happening. You start talking about restructuring, you might as well say goodbye to those players. I’m okay with a couple cuts, but why all the hate for Uzo? Him and Burrow had great chemistry out of the gate. He’s a great locker room guy—as is Gio (who played well this year too). No way we can resign those players that cheap. No way we can afford to sign that many high profile outsiders as well. Would I like the end result of this roster? I think it’s an upgrade (with the exception of corner). Do I think it’s at all realistic? No.

It's hard to gauge Uzomah because we only saw him for 2 games. If he had a full season and kept the pace, he'd have had 600-700 yards and a handful of TDs. However, he's coming back from an Achilles injury, playing in a contract year, and will free up $5.2 mill in cap space if released.

For a guy who hasn't had more than 439 yards and 3 TDs in a season and coming off a big injury, seems like a big gamble.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-01-2021, 11:02 PM)samhain Wrote: It'd be great, but I think there's less than zero chance that Lawson signs for 9.5 mil per year.  You'd be lucky to get him for 12.

I agree. I think he gets in the $13-15 mill APY range.

[Hammerstripes]

(02-01-2021, 03:09 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Not far away from what? A winning record? Making the playoffs? Or winning in the playoffs?

We don't know what the defense is going to look like with Reader and Waynes back, but we saw it that the beginning of the year with Reader and it wasn't a good defense. At this point, you can't honestly say you aren't worried about Atkins unless you are a blind optimist.
You also have the possibility of Lawson and/or WJ3 leaving. If either or both leave, that's more holes you have to fill in the offseason.

You also need more than just 1 good FA OL added. There was not a single spot on the OL who was good both against the run and pass last year. Williams and Hopkins were the only good pass blockers. Hart and Redmond were the only good run blockers. If you add only one new OL, you're looking at MAYBE having an OL in the 20-25 range. We (or at least I) want the OL to be Top 15. If you don't upgrade TE and Uzomah doesn't get back to his pre-injured Achilles, you're looking at another bottom-tier TE again in terms of pass catching production.

Look, it's natural to be worried about regressing, but there really isn't much room to regress. The team gained only 2.5 wins from 2019 to 2020. If they keep all the guys you talk about, they probably only end up with 6-8 wins at the end of the season. 
Is that satisfactory?
It's not for me.
We've gone 5 years without having a winning record, let alone a playoff appearance. I'm tired of waiting for them to get back. I want a playoff appearance in 2021.

Why not take the gamble on losing Gio, Uzomah, Hart, etc. and try to better allocate those funds on upgrades? At worst, the team goes back down to 2-3 wins. Not really any different than 4-5 wins.

It's simple, you keep your young talent and add to it.  I wouldn't gamble on losing Gio as we would have been in trouble without him this year.

Sure, we won a few more games, but we have the most important piece (a QB) and we definitely would have won 6-7 games this year had he not been injured.

Waynes isn't going to restructure a contract that he just signed.  

The defense will be in good shape if they can stay healthy and add a pass rusher.  The O-line would be pretty good if they had one concrete starter to build around.  

[*ochocincos*]

(02-05-2021, 07:02 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: It's simple, you keep your young talent and add to it.  I wouldn't gamble on losing Gio as we would have been in trouble without him this year.

Sure, we won a few more games, but we have the most important piece (a QB) and we definitely would have won 6-7 games this year had he not been injured.

Waynes isn't going to restructure a contract that he just signed.  

The defense will be in good shape if they can stay healthy and add a pass rusher.  The O-line would be pretty good if they had one concrete starter to build around.  

Uzomah and Gio aren't "young talent."
Bernard is 29, Uzomah is 28.

And I'm sorry, "would have been in trouble without him this year?" It's not like they were good with him. They ended 4-11-1. You really think they couldn't have performed about the same with Perine or Trayveon Williams? I think they could have.

[pulses]

(02-05-2021, 07:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Uzomah and Gio aren't "young talent."
Bernard is 29, Uzomah is 28.

And I'm sorry, "would have been in trouble without him this year?" It's not like they were good with him. They ended 4-11-1. You really think they couldn't have performed about the same with Perine or Trayveon Williams? I think they could have.

I think Travyeon Williams would be better than Gio if they would play him!!

[Hammerstripes]

(02-05-2021, 07:12 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Uzomah and Gio aren't "young talent."
Bernard is 29, Uzomah is 28.

And I'm sorry, "would have been in trouble without him this year?" It's not like they were good with him. They ended 4-11-1. You really think they couldn't have performed about the same with Perine or Trayveon Williams? I think they could have.

Wasn't referring to Gio and Uzomah as young talent.  Lawson and WJ3 are those guys.

As for Gio, he stepped in and played well and plays great with blitz pickup.  I'm sorry but his small salary isn't worth cutting.  He's still productive and a consummate pro.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-06-2021, 03:47 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Wasn't referring to Gio and Uzomah as young talent.  Lawson and WJ3 are those guys.

As for Gio, he stepped in and played well and plays great with blitz pickup.  I'm sorry but his small salary isn't worth cutting.  He's still productive and a consummate pro.

I apologize then for misinterpreting your post. When you said to keep the young talent and then mentioned Gio right after, I interpreted that as implying Gio was part of the young talent.

If the cap was $200+ mill and the Bengals could find a way to fill out the rest of their team while keeping Bernard, sure go ahead and keep him. But when the cap is expected to fall to $180-185 mill (per most recent reports) and the Bengals need actual starters, it seems silly to pay $4.75 mill to a backup RB. If they can negotiate him down to something like a $2 mill deal, that could be ok too. But even an extra $2-3 mill could be the difference from someone like a Bobby Hart vs a (way) better replacement in Daryl Williams.

[Hammerstripes]

(02-08-2021, 11:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I apologize then for misinterpreting your post. When you said to keep the young talent and then mentioned Gio right after, I interpreted that as implying Gio was part of the young talent.

If the cap was $200+ mill and the Bengals could find a way to fill out the rest of their team while keeping Bernard, sure go ahead and keep him. But when the cap is expected to fall to $180-185 mill (per most recent reports) and the Bengals need actual starters, it seems silly to pay $4.75 mill to a backup RB. If they can negotiate him down to something like a $2 mill deal, that could be ok too. But even an extra $2-3 mill could be the difference from someone like a Bobby Hart vs a (way) better replacement in Daryl Williams.

Mixon can't stay healthy, Bernard should be utilized more in the passing game.  I don't see where keeping him prevents us from getting another free agent.

[*ochocincos*]

(02-09-2021, 05:12 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: Mixon can't stay healthy, Bernard should be utilized more in the passing game.  I don't see where keeping him prevents us from getting another free agent.

It really comes down to what guys they re-sign and who they want in FA.

The current projected cap is $185 mill. The Bengals have $10.8 mill in rollover, which would put their $195.8 mill cap.
When you factor in the guys they already have signed, they have a current available cap space of $45.6 mill.

They need to reserve about $10 mill of that just for the draft and injury reserve.
So realistic spending cap on FAs goes down to around $35 mill.
It could really be down to just $25-30 mill depending on if they hold additional back for 2021 extensions like Bates and/or Hubbard.

I also expect Carl Lawson alone will cost $12-15 mill a year to sign, so just his cap will eat a big chunk into that $25-30 mill.
WJ3 will probably be around $10-15 mill too, as he can easily make the argument that Waynes makes $14 mill APY and he's better than him.
Add in the number of other players they need to sign, and they are going to need to make some cuts to fit everyone in.

I would prioritize cutting Hart, Atkins, Finney, and Uzomah more than Bernard, but I want quite a bit of external FA upgrades, so Bernard is on the table for me too.

If it comes down to needing an extra few mill to sign a clear upgrade at another position and they've already cut the other guys I mentioned, I would have no qualms about moving on from Bernard.