02-08-2021, 12:32 PM
What better time to officially start the off season than when the last game of the season just ended?
I used PFN's mock draft simulator for this one. I like them because they automatically offer you trade deals with each of your picks, so you don't have to spend time digging through PFF's trade proposal page and trying to see if anything sticks.
I went into this draft assuming we had a pretty pedestrian off season. We keep most of our free agents, including WJIII and Carl Lawson, but we don't get any of the guards like Thuney. Maybe we can nab one major free agent, but I would rather assume we don't just for the "worst case scenario" off season.
Round 1, Pick 8: Kyle Pitts TE, Florida
Trade down to #8, pick up Carolina's 2022 first round pick
We start with what I think a lot of people may consider our "worst case scenario." The top 4 picks in the draft were Trevor Lawrence, Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Penei Sewell. Now, I don't think this would ever happen. I suspect PFN's simulator probably emphasizes BPA over positional value, as I don't think NYJ can possibly pass on a QB here. Regardless, they do here and I am faced with a situation where all the top QBs other than Lawrence are still on the board at pick 5. Predictably, this lead to a lot of trade offers. I think I got 4 total. They were ranging from an additional 2nd and 3rd this year to move down to 9 to a 1st round pick in 2022 to move down to 8.
I chose the latter (trade down to #8, pick up Carolina's 2022 first round pick) as I think getting a first round pick for moving down 3 slots is a fantastic deal. Carolina moved up for Justin Fields, with Waddle going to the Eagles, Zach Wilson going to Detroit and then I come up at 8 and nab Kyle Pitts. I think we can do a whole lot with this guy to make our offense truly dangerous. I was seriously considering taking Slater here, but I figured I have all the time in the world to make mock drafts where we go OT in the first so why not start with a less common choice here. Besides, this is a very deep draft in terms of Oline talent. If there's ever a time to take a risk on an elite playmaker at TE (something we've only had for 1 season in the last 10, Eifert in 2015), it would be now. Burrow showed how much he loves using the TE in college with Moss and then in the first few games, with Uzomah pulling in 8 catches on 11 targets for 87 yards and a TD in just 2 games.
Pitts offers elite size and speed, elite receiving skills, elite hands, elite routes and elite catch radius. He's a mismatch for almost anyone that covers him, as he's too fast for most LBs and too big for most CBs and safeties. I do have some reservations about his run and pass blocking, however. I think he can learn these skills but if he doesn't he'd be little more than a big receiver, which has its uses but may not be worth a top 10 pick. So that determination will be on the coaches to see if they think he's able to block in the future, at least to a level such that his presence on the field isn't an immediate giveaway that you've called a pass play. Assuming he can learn to block, getting him at #8 overall and picking up a 2022 first round pick is an absolute steal.
Round 2, pick 56: Creed Humphrey OC/OG, Oklahoma
Traded Picks 38 (2nd) and 169 (6th) for Picks 56 (2nd) and 63 (2nd)
Another pick, another trade down. The offensive linemen I was targeting at 38 didn't quite make it there in this mock draft, with Teven Jenkins, Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield and Wyatt Davis all going before I picked, between 24 and 38. The top Olineman available were Deonte Brown, Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers and Creed Humphrey. Brown is an interesting player, but I am not sure that our scheme really relies on these power blockers. Landon Dickerson was also tempting, but I believe he suffered a relatively major injury late this season, so he may not be ready for the 2021 season. I really need to extract two starting offensive linemen from this draft (because, as I said in the beginning, I assumed the worst case scenario where we did not address the offensive line in free agency). So the idea that I could get a second 2nd round pick by moving down 18 picks was very appealing to me, especially since I suspected a good guard would still be available at 56, since there were 4 good interior linemen available at 38. And there was one left in Humphrey. I see him as a player who could reliably play center for this offense, but everything I've read about him makes me believe he is a future guard in the NFL. With our starting center tearing his ACL in the last game of the season, I think we're going to need to have a different starter on day 1 of the season. While I don't think Price would be a disaster there, I'd be more comfortable with Humphrey there. When Hopkins comes back from injury, Humphrey can move to guard, where he will be for the immediate future.
Round 2, pick 63: Liam Eichenberg OT, Notre Dame
And here's where the trade down pays off. Eichenberg has been mentioned as a possible first round pick, so seeing him at the bottom of the 2nd round was very exciting to me. He can play RT on day 1, shifting Fred Johnson to the back up swing tackle, which is probably where he is best suited. Notre Dame has a very good history in producing quality offensive tackles, so the pedigree is encouraging here. This is step 2 in the complete revamp of our offensive line.
Round 3, pick 69: Dillon Radunz OT, North Dakota State
The wild card selection and the player that has risen higher as a result of the Senior Bowl than nearly any other prospect this year, Radunz was clearly the best offensive lineman at the Senior Bowl. I think between him, Eichenberg and Humphrey, we can expect 2 decent starting offensive linemen in their rookie years. This may be seen as sacrificing other positions to fix the offensive line but, in my opinion, that trade is worth it. As you will see in this draft, I didn't really address pass rusher. If I had a crystal ball as a GM and this is how my draft fell, I would have gone back and signed Leonard Williams to whatever money he wanted but, since the draft occurs after free agency, let's just pretend that was my intention all along!
Round 4, pick 105: Greg Newsome II CB, Northwestern
In my "mock off season" at the beginning of this post, I assumed we brought back WJIII, which means we likely don't keep Mackensie Alexander. Consequently, we have our two starting CBs (WJIII and Waynes) and we have Darius Phillips as a reliable 3rd corner, but there is a cliff past those three players. Newsome will come in as the 4th CB, relieving us of the God awful player that was LeShaun Sims. Newsome is a good athlete with good size at CB. I'm honestly surprised he was here, as many consider him a top 100 prospect, but good players fall into the 3rd day every year. I'm glad to have him fall to me at 105. We have the luxury of letting him come along gradually rather than being forced to start him from day 1, a position that very few cornerbacks thrive in as a rookie.
Round 5, pick 136: Seth Williams WR, Auburn
Round 7, pick 199: Anthony Schwartz WR, Auburn
I'm just going to package these two picks together because they were my next two picks (as I had traded my 6th rounder in the trade for 2 2nd rounders) and they are related to each other, as wide receivers from the same team. These two players were Auburn's #1 and #2 receiving threats in 2020, respectively and accounted for 58% of Auburn's passing offense throughout the year (both yards and TDs). They are, however, very different players with Williams being the tall jump ball receiver and Schwartz being the speedy underneath guy who can take a screen or crossing route the distance. I'd be pretty surprised if these two were available this late in the draft, especially if Schwartz runs as fast as many people expect him to (somewhere in the 4.3s) but I think it's because he's considered a speed guy who lacks a lot of the route running and technique you'd want in an NFL WR. Think of him as a John Ross that was actually picked where John Ross should have been picked haha. Williams, on the other hand, is your typical jump ball receiver. He is expected to be a bit faster than Auden Tate, but not by much. Adding these two to our offense will give Burrow different kind of options and will allow Zac to call a variety of different plays with different personnel packages. Good value late in the draft.
Round 7, pick 201: Joshua Kaindoh, Edge Florida State
And, finally, I address edge in this draft. I will be totally honest and say I have no idea who Kaindoh is, what his strengths are what his weaknesses are and if he even serves a role on this team. I just felt bad that I didn't address edge at all in the draft haha. For what it's worth, these are the edge rushers I passed on at each pick, so you can get an idea of whether you would have gone in another direction with any of the picks.
Players who were available at each pick but not the next pick:
Round 1, Pick 5 and 8: Kwity Paye, Micah Parsons, Gregory Rousseau, Azeez Ojulari, Joseph Ossai
Round 2, pick 38 (which I traded down from): Jaelan Phillips, Jayson Oweh, Jordan Smith
Round 2, pick 56 (my first 2nd round pick): Carlos Basham Jr, Patrick Jones
Round 2, pick 63: None were picked between this pick and my next pick
Round 3, pick 69: Rashad Weaver, Dayo Odeyingbo, Quincy Roche, Joe Tryon
Round 4, pick 105: Hamilcar Rashed Jr, Payton Turner, Victor Dimukeje, Chauncey Gholston
Round 5, pick 136: Daelin Hayes, Shaka Toney, William Bradley-King, Janarius Robinson, Malcolm Koonce
Round 7, pick 199: None were picked between this pick and my next pick
Round 7, pick 201: Jonathon Cooper
So should I have taken one of these guys at any of those picks rather than the pick I chose? I'll let you decide :).
I used PFN's mock draft simulator for this one. I like them because they automatically offer you trade deals with each of your picks, so you don't have to spend time digging through PFF's trade proposal page and trying to see if anything sticks.
I went into this draft assuming we had a pretty pedestrian off season. We keep most of our free agents, including WJIII and Carl Lawson, but we don't get any of the guards like Thuney. Maybe we can nab one major free agent, but I would rather assume we don't just for the "worst case scenario" off season.
Round 1, Pick 8: Kyle Pitts TE, Florida
Trade down to #8, pick up Carolina's 2022 first round pick
We start with what I think a lot of people may consider our "worst case scenario." The top 4 picks in the draft were Trevor Lawrence, Ja'Marr Chase, Devonta Smith, Penei Sewell. Now, I don't think this would ever happen. I suspect PFN's simulator probably emphasizes BPA over positional value, as I don't think NYJ can possibly pass on a QB here. Regardless, they do here and I am faced with a situation where all the top QBs other than Lawrence are still on the board at pick 5. Predictably, this lead to a lot of trade offers. I think I got 4 total. They were ranging from an additional 2nd and 3rd this year to move down to 9 to a 1st round pick in 2022 to move down to 8.
I chose the latter (trade down to #8, pick up Carolina's 2022 first round pick) as I think getting a first round pick for moving down 3 slots is a fantastic deal. Carolina moved up for Justin Fields, with Waddle going to the Eagles, Zach Wilson going to Detroit and then I come up at 8 and nab Kyle Pitts. I think we can do a whole lot with this guy to make our offense truly dangerous. I was seriously considering taking Slater here, but I figured I have all the time in the world to make mock drafts where we go OT in the first so why not start with a less common choice here. Besides, this is a very deep draft in terms of Oline talent. If there's ever a time to take a risk on an elite playmaker at TE (something we've only had for 1 season in the last 10, Eifert in 2015), it would be now. Burrow showed how much he loves using the TE in college with Moss and then in the first few games, with Uzomah pulling in 8 catches on 11 targets for 87 yards and a TD in just 2 games.
Pitts offers elite size and speed, elite receiving skills, elite hands, elite routes and elite catch radius. He's a mismatch for almost anyone that covers him, as he's too fast for most LBs and too big for most CBs and safeties. I do have some reservations about his run and pass blocking, however. I think he can learn these skills but if he doesn't he'd be little more than a big receiver, which has its uses but may not be worth a top 10 pick. So that determination will be on the coaches to see if they think he's able to block in the future, at least to a level such that his presence on the field isn't an immediate giveaway that you've called a pass play. Assuming he can learn to block, getting him at #8 overall and picking up a 2022 first round pick is an absolute steal.
Round 2, pick 56: Creed Humphrey OC/OG, Oklahoma
Traded Picks 38 (2nd) and 169 (6th) for Picks 56 (2nd) and 63 (2nd)
Another pick, another trade down. The offensive linemen I was targeting at 38 didn't quite make it there in this mock draft, with Teven Jenkins, Alex Leatherwood, Jalen Mayfield and Wyatt Davis all going before I picked, between 24 and 38. The top Olineman available were Deonte Brown, Landon Dickerson, Josh Myers and Creed Humphrey. Brown is an interesting player, but I am not sure that our scheme really relies on these power blockers. Landon Dickerson was also tempting, but I believe he suffered a relatively major injury late this season, so he may not be ready for the 2021 season. I really need to extract two starting offensive linemen from this draft (because, as I said in the beginning, I assumed the worst case scenario where we did not address the offensive line in free agency). So the idea that I could get a second 2nd round pick by moving down 18 picks was very appealing to me, especially since I suspected a good guard would still be available at 56, since there were 4 good interior linemen available at 38. And there was one left in Humphrey. I see him as a player who could reliably play center for this offense, but everything I've read about him makes me believe he is a future guard in the NFL. With our starting center tearing his ACL in the last game of the season, I think we're going to need to have a different starter on day 1 of the season. While I don't think Price would be a disaster there, I'd be more comfortable with Humphrey there. When Hopkins comes back from injury, Humphrey can move to guard, where he will be for the immediate future.
Round 2, pick 63: Liam Eichenberg OT, Notre Dame
And here's where the trade down pays off. Eichenberg has been mentioned as a possible first round pick, so seeing him at the bottom of the 2nd round was very exciting to me. He can play RT on day 1, shifting Fred Johnson to the back up swing tackle, which is probably where he is best suited. Notre Dame has a very good history in producing quality offensive tackles, so the pedigree is encouraging here. This is step 2 in the complete revamp of our offensive line.
Round 3, pick 69: Dillon Radunz OT, North Dakota State
The wild card selection and the player that has risen higher as a result of the Senior Bowl than nearly any other prospect this year, Radunz was clearly the best offensive lineman at the Senior Bowl. I think between him, Eichenberg and Humphrey, we can expect 2 decent starting offensive linemen in their rookie years. This may be seen as sacrificing other positions to fix the offensive line but, in my opinion, that trade is worth it. As you will see in this draft, I didn't really address pass rusher. If I had a crystal ball as a GM and this is how my draft fell, I would have gone back and signed Leonard Williams to whatever money he wanted but, since the draft occurs after free agency, let's just pretend that was my intention all along!
Round 4, pick 105: Greg Newsome II CB, Northwestern
In my "mock off season" at the beginning of this post, I assumed we brought back WJIII, which means we likely don't keep Mackensie Alexander. Consequently, we have our two starting CBs (WJIII and Waynes) and we have Darius Phillips as a reliable 3rd corner, but there is a cliff past those three players. Newsome will come in as the 4th CB, relieving us of the God awful player that was LeShaun Sims. Newsome is a good athlete with good size at CB. I'm honestly surprised he was here, as many consider him a top 100 prospect, but good players fall into the 3rd day every year. I'm glad to have him fall to me at 105. We have the luxury of letting him come along gradually rather than being forced to start him from day 1, a position that very few cornerbacks thrive in as a rookie.
Round 5, pick 136: Seth Williams WR, Auburn
Round 7, pick 199: Anthony Schwartz WR, Auburn
I'm just going to package these two picks together because they were my next two picks (as I had traded my 6th rounder in the trade for 2 2nd rounders) and they are related to each other, as wide receivers from the same team. These two players were Auburn's #1 and #2 receiving threats in 2020, respectively and accounted for 58% of Auburn's passing offense throughout the year (both yards and TDs). They are, however, very different players with Williams being the tall jump ball receiver and Schwartz being the speedy underneath guy who can take a screen or crossing route the distance. I'd be pretty surprised if these two were available this late in the draft, especially if Schwartz runs as fast as many people expect him to (somewhere in the 4.3s) but I think it's because he's considered a speed guy who lacks a lot of the route running and technique you'd want in an NFL WR. Think of him as a John Ross that was actually picked where John Ross should have been picked haha. Williams, on the other hand, is your typical jump ball receiver. He is expected to be a bit faster than Auden Tate, but not by much. Adding these two to our offense will give Burrow different kind of options and will allow Zac to call a variety of different plays with different personnel packages. Good value late in the draft.
Round 7, pick 201: Joshua Kaindoh, Edge Florida State
And, finally, I address edge in this draft. I will be totally honest and say I have no idea who Kaindoh is, what his strengths are what his weaknesses are and if he even serves a role on this team. I just felt bad that I didn't address edge at all in the draft haha. For what it's worth, these are the edge rushers I passed on at each pick, so you can get an idea of whether you would have gone in another direction with any of the picks.
Players who were available at each pick but not the next pick:
Round 1, Pick 5 and 8: Kwity Paye, Micah Parsons, Gregory Rousseau, Azeez Ojulari, Joseph Ossai
Round 2, pick 38 (which I traded down from): Jaelan Phillips, Jayson Oweh, Jordan Smith
Round 2, pick 56 (my first 2nd round pick): Carlos Basham Jr, Patrick Jones
Round 2, pick 63: None were picked between this pick and my next pick
Round 3, pick 69: Rashad Weaver, Dayo Odeyingbo, Quincy Roche, Joe Tryon
Round 4, pick 105: Hamilcar Rashed Jr, Payton Turner, Victor Dimukeje, Chauncey Gholston
Round 5, pick 136: Daelin Hayes, Shaka Toney, William Bradley-King, Janarius Robinson, Malcolm Koonce
Round 7, pick 199: None were picked between this pick and my next pick
Round 7, pick 201: Jonathon Cooper
So should I have taken one of these guys at any of those picks rather than the pick I chose? I'll let you decide :).
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