Jeremy Hill far ahead of his production last year

[fredtoast]

(10-21-2015, 10:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: When Hill is playing well, it's because Hill is awesomesauze!!!!!!!

When Hill is struggling, it's because of everybody BUT Hill.

I'm not surprised that this comes from the same few posters in JN. Don't be surprised. This will happen with any players that these people obsess over.

The line only blocks for Gio because they're out to get Hill!

Whenyou look at it objectively it makes more sense to assume that something else has changed when a very productive player is struggling.

When you look at all the great players in the NFL you will see that their production goes up and down from year to year.  usually it is not because a great QB like Luck suddenly forgets how to play.  Instead it is usually because of other factors.  Do you really think that DeMarco Murray completely forgot how to run the ball after gaining over 2000 yards from scrimmage last year?

People who just look at stats to judge a player are the ones who were saying we should dump Gio before thjis season.

Here is my opinion.  I think part of Hill's problem has been that he is not hitting the hole as hard as he needs to.  That is what Lapham thinks also.  But at the same time I see him get nailed in the backfield A LOT.  People who don't know a lot about football might think it is silly to suggest that the O-line only blocks for Gio and not for Hill.  But people with a deeper understanding will understand that opposing defense may play the run differently when Hill is in the game, or the Bengals may run slightly different blocking schemes when Hill gets the ball.  There are a lot of different variables other than claiming that the only possible explanation is that the line chooses to block better for Gio.

[djs7685]

(10-21-2015, 12:31 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Whenyou look at it objectively it makes more sense to assume that something else has changed when a very productive player is struggling.

When you look at all the great players in the NFL you will see that their production goes up and down from year to year.  usually it is not because a great QB like Luck suddenly forgets how to play.  Instead it is usually because of other factors.  Do you really think that DeMarco Murray completely forgot how to run the ball after gaining over 2000 yards from scrimmage last year?

People who just look at stats to judge a player are the ones who were saying we should dump Gio before thjis season.

Here is my opinion.  I think part of Hill's problem has been that he is not hitting the hole as hard as he needs to.  That is what Lapham thinks also.  But at the same time I see him get nailed in the backfield A LOT.  People who don't know a lot about football might think it is silly to suggest that the O-line only blocks for Gio and not for Hill.  But people with a deeper understanding will understand that opposing defense may play the run differently when Hill is in the game, or the Bengals may run slightly different blocking schemes when Hill gets the ball.  There are a lot of different variables other than claiming that the only possible explanation is that the line chooses to block better for Gio.

Murray went from 1 team to another. Hill is playing with the same guys and the same line that he had last year.

Yes Fred, you're the only person on here with such "deep understanding" because I made a joke about the line forgetting how to block when Hill was in the game and only doing it for Gio

Genius at work, everyone move out of the way for the almighty Fred! You aren't going to get a serious response when you just throw your little jabs all through a post like that.

[fredtoast]

(10-21-2015, 12:38 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Murray went from 1 team to another. Hill is playing with the same guys and the same line that he had last year.

Luck is on the same team and was supposed to be playing with more weapons this year than he had last year.  And I can list dozens of other examples of really good players who had "down seasons" during their careers.  Sometimes these seasons are due to injury, but other times they are due to changes in scheme or other issues.

I honestly believe that opposing teams have spent a lot of time during the off season planning on how to stop Hill.  I think this could have some effect on his production this year.  Perhaps defense have different keys or assignments when he is in the game.  Or perhaps we are more likely to use different blocking schemes when Hill is in the game.  I can't say for sure that either of these are true.  All I know is that is sure does seem like the blocking is more effective when Gio gets the ball.  It isn't just Gio hitting the hole harder.  It is the fact that Gio more often has a hole to hit.

And I also can't say that Hill is 100% healthy, but I do know that I have seen Hill's abilities and I know he is not suddenly a crappy RB.  He has talent.  I don't think those talents have disappeared forever after just one season.

[reuben.ahmed]

I rated the thread 1

[WhoDeyWho]

(10-21-2015, 01:16 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Luck is on the same team and was supposed to be playing with more weapons this year than he had last year.  And I can list dozens of other examples of really good players who had "down seasons" during their careers.  Sometimes these seasons are due to injury, but other times they are due to changes in scheme or other issues.

I honestly believe that opposing teams have spent a lot of time during the off season planning on how to stop Hill.  I think this could have some effect on his production this year.  Perhaps defense have different keys or assignments when he is in the game.  Or perhaps we are more likely to use different blocking schemes when Hill is in the game.  I can't say for sure that either of these are true.  All I know is that is sure does seem like the blocking is more effective when Gio gets the ball.  It isn't just Gio hitting the hole harder.  It is the fact that Gio more often has a hole to hit.

And I also can't say that Hill is 100% healthy, but I do know that I have seen Hill's abilities and I know he is not suddenly a crappy RB.  He has talent.  I don't think those talents have disappeared forever after just one season.

And for some reason the blocking has not been as effective when Hill was in the games

This

[Paul from Dayton]

Gio is hitting the hole faster. It is almost like Hill is trying to be too patient. We have faced some good d-lines recently but Gio has still been effective. I'm not ready to panic on Hill yet and think he'll start getting back to what he was last year soon.

[*rfaulk34*]

Check his splits. By formation, shotgun gave him his highest ypc last year.

This year, I formation is his worst ypc.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/16803/jeremy-hill

[fredtoast]

(10-21-2015, 12:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hill has always been much more effective running out of the shotgun than he has with Andy under center.

(10-21-2015, 01:35 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Check his splits. By formation, shotgun gave him his highest ypc last year.

This year, I formation is his worst ypc.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/splits/_/id/16803/jeremy-hill

Yep.

Brad was already aware of these numbers when he made his claims that Hill was always better with Dalton under center.

[Paul from Dayton]

It does seem like Hewitt's lead blocking has taken a step back this year as well...

[*Synric*]

(10-21-2015, 12:38 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Murray went from 1 team to another. Hill is playing with the same guys and the same line that he had last year.

No, he's not.

Last year the inline TE was Gresham and the Heavy package extra Onlineman was Newhouse. This year it's Eifert and Fisher. Also Winston was the RT for most of the time Hill was putting up his big numbers down the final stretch. Does this make a huge difference? probably not but it was different.

[TGISunday]

I mean no offense, but this argument has a control experiment built into the discussion: Giovanni is running behind the same line. I've yet to read something that argues this point.

That said, I don't know if he's 100% healthy, and I think he can rebound and have fun again. Probably too worried about ball security. He's a young kid.

[BFritz21]

(10-21-2015, 12:07 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Hill has always been much more effective running out of the shotgun than he has with Andy under center.

Very, VERY false.

(10-21-2015, 03:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Yep.

Brad was already aware of these numbers when he made his claims that Hill was always better with Dalton under center.

Except anyone who watched the games knows that Hill looked better running the ball when Dalton was under center and not in the shotgun.  Just looking at stats can't show that, burt if you'd like to take the statistical approach, we'll do that:

Hill carried the ball less than a third as much from shotgun as opposed to having Dalton under center, and I always say you can't discount long runs because they happened, but Hill's 85 yard run on one carry and few other long runs make the stats from the gun very skewed because he carried the ball so much less.

If you'd like to go back and look at play-by-play, Hill normally struggled from the gun, gaining one or two yards whenever he carried from the gun last year, and even took a bunch of rushes for a loss.

Hill ran much better when Dalton was under center because he got the ball while he was running forward, which this video shows, but you probably won't even look at that.

You need to quit even trying to have debates with me, especially when you try and post things like you're better than me and talking down to me like "Brad was already aware....." because you end up looking bad.

I also love how you try to switch the focus of the thread that you created to try and say that Hill was better last year at this point but failed to point out that he wasn't getting many carries up to this point last year.

Typical Fred.  It used to be funny, now it's just annoying.

[type_stripe]

Hill dances and can't hit the closing holes. Gio is a bit smaller and can hit closing holes and gets to them sooner as well. Both are awesome once in the second level, but Gio made the adjustment to make a move quicker & get through line, Hill hasn't yet and still dances or tries breaking to the outside. Hill can be just as productive once he stops hesitating. Could be because of formations or something mental. Who knows?

[BFritz21]

(10-21-2015, 10:36 PM)type_stripe Wrote: Hill dances and can't hit the closing holes. Gio is a bit smaller and can hit closing holes and gets to them sooner as well. Both are awesome once in the second level, but Gio made the adjustment to make a move quicker & get through line, Hill hasn't yet and still dances or tries breaking to the outside. Hill can be just as productive once he stops hesitating.  Could be because of formations or something mental. Who knows?

Pretty sure it's just formations because, when Andy hands him the ball after starting under center, he's just running downhill at full speed and might even stutter-step, but, as soon as he sees the hole develop or a cut to make, he explodes.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-21-2015, 10:52 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Pretty sure it's just formations because, when Andy hands him the ball after starting under center, he's just running downhill at full speed and might even stutter-step, but, as soon as he sees the hole develop or a cut to make, he explodes.

Between the two, it's how quickly Gio hits the hole. Hill still spends too much time trying to be Le'veon Bell v2. 

Regardless of formation, he's starting flat-footed. If he gets a 2 step head start, he's not running full speed and he may still need to make a cut depending on the hole.

[djs7685]

(10-21-2015, 09:06 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Hill carried the ball less than a third as much from shotgun as opposed to having Dalton under center, and I always say you can't discount long runs because they happened, but Hill's 85 yard run on one carry and few other long runs make the stats from the gun very skewed because he carried the ball so much less.

If you'd like to go back and look at play-by-play, Hill normally struggled from the gun, gaining one or two yards whenever he carried from the gun last year, and even took a bunch of rushes for a loss.

Brad, I agree with the logic here, but I need to see the data.

Where are you seeing a detailed game-log where they show whether the play was in shotgun or not? I have the play by play at pro-football-reference, but they don't seem to show that on each play. If there's something I'm missing and Fred (or anyone else that regularly uses the site) can show me how I can view under center vs shotgun snaps, that would be excellent.

[BFritz21]

(10-22-2015, 08:57 AM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Between the two, it's how quickly Gio hits the hole. Hill still spends too much time trying to be Le'veon Bell v2. 

Regardless of formation, he's starting flat-footed. If he gets a 2 step head start, he's not running full speed and he may still need to make a cut depending on the hole.

But he gets a head-start with Andy under center and he's not waiting for Andy to hand him the ball.

With Andy under center, he starts towards the line immediately and, even if he picks his spots before he goes to full speed, it's much easier to kick it up a notch than when he waits for Andy to hand him the ball and then starts towards the hole.

Hue said Hill's the starter and we'll go back to feeding him the rock, so we'll see if he starts lining Andy up under center and if my theories hold true.

[BFritz21]

(10-22-2015, 12:48 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Brad, I agree with the logic here, but I need to see the data.

Where are you seeing a detailed game-log where they show whether the play was in shotgun or not? I have the play by play at pro-football-reference, but they don't seem to show that on each play. If there's something I'm missing and Fred (or anyone else that regularly uses the site) can show me how I can view under center vs shotgun snaps, that would be excellent.

ESPN, play-by-play of games and it tells when Andy starts from shotgun.  Takes a bit more work than just looking at numbers, but it is what it is.

[PDub80]

The Bengals are 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game and 2nd in rushing TDs with 9 (Hill had 6 of those). The Patriots have won for years using RBs in this platoon style, in certain plays, situations, points in games, etc.

Who cares what the individual guy is doing? The group is performing well and are perfectly in line with being successful enough tobwin games.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-22-2015, 12:54 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: But he gets a head-start with Andy under center and he's not waiting for Andy to hand him the ball.

With Andy under center, he starts towards the line immediately and, even if he picks his spots before he goes to full speed, it's much easier to kick it up a notch than when he waits for Andy to hand him the ball and then starts towards the hole.

Hue said Hill's the starter and we'll go back to feeding him the rock, so we'll see if he starts lining Andy up under center and if my theories hold true.

If you watch Hill last year and this year, this year he's slower through the line--for whatever reason--regardless of formation. Last year his splits between shotgun and I formation were almost identical. 
Shotgun- 54 carries
I-form- 67 carries

Shotgun- 355 yards
I-form-  355 yards

Shotgun- 3 tds
I-form-  4 tds

Shotgun- 85 yard long
I-form- 62 yard long

It's not the formation, it's the runner. I'll tell you what would help him the most...

Losing about 10lbs.