Chase vs Sewell

[Beaker]

With the 49ers trade, the Bengals are pretty sure to have a choice between Penei Sewell and J'marr Case at pick #5. The debate over the next month will be which player should they take.

It is universally know that our L has been bad, and that we need to protect our franchise QB to be successful. It is also known that our WR group is thin at this point and for Burrow to be successful, he also needs quality targets to throw to. With AJ Green gone, there is no clear #1 WR. Higgins makes an excellent #2, and Boyd is a monster in the slot, but no clear standout #1. That puts both Sewell and Chase frmly in play at pick #5. Thus the debate.

I am going to propose we look at the choice in a different way. It has been proven over the history of the NFL draft that the best strategy is to take the best player available when its your turn to pick. Teams who constantly chase needs instead of picking high quality players regardless of need end up not doing as well in the win column historically. So let's ask ourselves, who will be the best non-quarterback player available at pick #5? And to do so, I propose we ask the simple question...which player (Chase or Sewell) has the better chance of NOT being as good as projected? Who has the better chance of being a bust, or at least being serviceable but not great? For my money, I think Sewell has the better chance to not be a great player.

One analyst who first made me question Sewell was Brian Baldinger. He played O line, and has a pretty good track record for evaluating talent. He was asked to evaluate the O line prospects. One thing about Sewell that he said that scared me was that after watching tape on the different prospects, he wasn't convinced Sewell was the outright best O line prospect. He said the reason was that he saw Sewell on the ground too much. To him, this indicated that Sewell's balance was not top tier. He said you can coach technique, but like speed, you cannot coach innate balance. Combine that with the factors of sitting out a year, playing in the PAC 12 which doesn't have a lot of stellar defenses to play against, and playing on a spread offense system at Oregon, and I think you may have a recipe for not bust, but maybe non- greatness.

Contrast that with Chase who has been rated highly by nearly every source I've read about him. His qualities have been said to be a blend between those of AJ Green, and Julio Jones. Height, speed, catch radius, ability to make contested catches, etc. Throw on top of that the fact that Burrow knows him, has chemistry with him, and has actually asked for him, and I think you have a recipe for a much higher likelihood of not being not as good as projected. In other words, a higher chance of being the better player.

I know we need O line. But this draft is deep for O line. We can get good O linemen in rounds 2 and 3. In fact, we could get guys that could turn out being as good as or better than Sewell. I don't believe that to be the case with Chase. I think he is definitely the BPA with the most upside, and lower chance of not panning out to what we thought he would be. In that case, my choice would be to go with Chase at #5, and get O line help in subsequent rounds.

Who do you think has the better chance to not be great?

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-27-2021, 09:38 AM)Beaker Wrote: With the 49ers trade, the Bengals are pretty sure to have a choice between Penei Sewell and J'marr Case at pick #5. The debate over the next month will be which player should they take.

It is universally know that our L has been bad, and that we need to protect our franchise QB to be successful. It is also known that our WR group is thin at this point and for Burrow to be successful, he also needs quality targets to throw to. With AJ Green gone, there is no clear #1 WR. Higgins makes an excellent #2, and Boyd is a monster in the slot, but no clear standout #1. That puts both Sewell and Chase frmly in play at pick #5. Thus the debate.

I am going to propose we look at the choice in a different way. It has been proven over the history of the NFL draft that the best strategy is to take the best player available when its your turn to pick. Teams who constantly chase needs instead of picking high quality players regardless of need end up not doing as well in the win column historically. So let's ask ourselves, who will be the best non-quarterback player available at pick #5? And to do so, I propose we ask the simple question...which player (Chase or Sewell) has the better chance of NOT being as good as projected? Who has the better chance of being a bust, or at least being serviceable but not great? For my money, I think Sewell has the better chance to not be a great player.

One analyst who first made me question Sewell was Brian Baldinger. He played O line, and has a pretty good track record for evaluating talent. He was asked to evaluate the O line prospects. One thing about Sewell that he said that scared me was that after watching tape on the different prospects, he wasn't convinced Sewell was the outright best O line prospect. He said the reason was that he saw Sewell on the ground too much. To him, this indicated that Sewell's balance was not top tier. He said you can coach technique, but like speed, you cannot coach innate balance. Combine that with the factors of sitting out a year, playing in the PAC 12 which doesn't have a lot of stellar defenses to play against, and playing on a spread offense system at Oregon, and I think you may have a recipe for not bust, but maybe non- greatness.

Contrast that with Chase who has been rated highly by nearly every source I've read about him. His qualities have been said to be a blend between those of AJ Green, and Julio Jones. Height, speed, catch radius, ability to make contested catches, etc. Throw on top of that the fact that Burrow knows him, has chemistry with him, and has actually asked for him, and I think you have a recipe for a much higher likelihood of not being not as good as projected. In other words, a higher chance of being the better player.

I know we need O line. But this draft is deep for O line. We can get good O linemen in rounds 2 and 3. In fact, we could get guys that could turn out being as good as or better than Sewell. I don't believe that to be the case with Chase. I think he is definitely the BPA with the most upside, and lower chance of not panning out to what we thought he would be. In that case, my choice would be to go with Chase at #5, and get O line help in subsequent rounds.

Who do you think has the better chance to not be great?

Good post. I’m really big on both guys, but I have to agree with you that Sewell probably has the higher odds of not living up to the hype. Chase I think is almost guaranteed to be a star.

I’ll be super happy with either of them though, and I’m glad I don’t have to make the decision. I almost hope NY or ATL take one of them to make it a easy selection for us (assuming we’re not interested in Pitts).

[HarleyDog]

Regardless of who they pick, it will be wrong. They go Chase, we need an OL badly. They go Sewell, we need a WR. Fans I think are pretty split in this. For me, I want OL even if not Sewell. Knowing Mike Browns past, I guarantee we are taking Chase.

[Nati#1]

Agree with Baldinger.. Sewell is not the guy.. I think we taienneed to take chase and take OT Tevin Jenkins in the 2nd.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

I wholeheartedly agree that Sewell has the lower floor... but I also think he has the highest ceiling.

Thus, it comes down to the great debate, IMO; do you take the guy who's guaranteed to be the safer pick or do you take a chance on a potentially-generational-esque player? (kind of like the Sewell/Slater debate)

I agree with Nicomo that I'm glad I don't have to make the decision and I also agree that I'd rather Atlanta take one of the two.

But I'd be thrilled with either; even if Sewell is not generational, he still makes our team better. Same with Chase.

[Goalpost]

I still think Pitts is the best non qb in the draft. But it seems the team might like Chase better. And honestly the best pick for Joe's sake is Sewell imo.
We were so outclassed against Baltimore last year...out scored 65-6 in two games. In terms of that opponent, which player closes the gap most...

[impactplaya]

You have to ask yourself which player has the largest player dropoff in terms of talent after them.?
Is Sewell that much better than Alex Leatherwood for example ....or Tavon Jenkins?
If you pass on Jamar Chase then what WR in RD 2 or 3 can give you the same skillset?
All the Sewell fans think hes the only OT that dominated his matchups at the college level.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-27-2021, 11:01 AM)Goalpost Wrote: I still think Pitts is the best non qb in the draft. But it seems the team might like Chase better. And honestly the best pick for Joe's sake is Sewell imo.
We were so outclassed against Baltimore last year...out scored 65-6 in two games. In terms of that opponent, which player closes the gap most...

Baltimore mostly killed us by blitzing. A lot of that is on the coaching.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-27-2021, 11:23 AM)impactplaya Wrote: You have to ask yourself which player has the largest player dropoff in terms of talent after them.?
Is Sewell that much better than Alex Leatherwood for example ....or Tavon Jenkins?
If you pass on Jamar Chase then what WR in RD 2 or 3 can give you the same skillset?
All the Sewell fans think hes the only OT that dominated his matchups at the college level.

Don’t generalize. Plenty of us realize there will be good options on day two.

[impactplaya]

(03-27-2021, 11:28 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Don’t generalize. Plenty of us realize there will be good options on day two.

Ooops I meant Murdock. 

[*Synric*]

(03-27-2021, 11:26 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Baltimore mostly killed us by blitzing. A lot of that is on the coaching.

Some of it is on Joe not recognizing the blitz. I remember once he motioned his TE of protection into a round and a safety came off the edge and sacked him. He had a few blitz recognition fails in that game.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(03-27-2021, 12:06 PM)Synric Wrote: Some of it is on Joe not recognizing the blitz. I remember once he motioned his TE of protection into a round and a safety came off the edge and sacked him. He had a few blitz recognition fails in that game.

Martindale definitely did a good job throwing stuff at Burrow he wasn’t ready for. I just wish I had more confidence in Taylor/Callahan/Pitcher to coach him up...

[Beaker]

(03-27-2021, 10:18 AM)HarleyDog Wrote: Regardless of who they pick, it will be wrong. They go Chase, we need an OL badly. They go Sewell, we need a WR. 

This is why I said we shouldn't go by which is the bigger need. We should go by BPA....and look at which player has a greater chance of not panning out as advertised, along with what is available and could be comparable in later rounds..

[*Synric*]

(03-27-2021, 12:20 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Martindale definitely did a good job throwing stuff at Burrow he wasn’t ready for. I just wish I had more confidence in Taylor/Callahan/Pitcher to coach him up...

My biggest gripe with the offense hasn't been the pass game it's been the run scheme. It was very straight forward and easy to read... Then they would have a head scratcher like the offensive line blocking left and a designed run to the right off the block of Drew Sample 1 on 1 vs the best edge in the NFL TJ Watt.

[*Synric*]

Daniel Jeremiah said he has an updated top 50 and postion rankings coming out this week but he snuck the OT rankings onto Path to the Draft.

His top 5 OTs in order:

Rashawn Slater
Penei Sewell
Jalen Mayfield
Teven Jenkins
Christian Darrisaw

[Beaker]

(03-27-2021, 12:27 PM)Synric Wrote: Daniel Jeremiah said he has an updated top 50 and postion rankings coming out this week but he snuck the OT rankings onto Path to the Draft.

His top 5 OTs in order:

Rashawn Slater
Penei Sewell
Jalen Mayfield
Teven Jenkins
Christian Darrisaw

Exactly what Im saying. There is debate whether Sewell is even the best OT. Nobody is debating that Chase is not the top WR. His skillset is above everyone elses, and the dropoff after the first round WRs is much more significant than the dropoff in the OT talent after the first round.

[Whatever]

(03-27-2021, 04:26 PM)Beaker Wrote: Exactly what Im saying. There is debate whether Sewell is even the best OT. Nobody is debating that Chase is not the top WR. His skillset is above everyone elses, and the dropoff after the first round WRs is much more significant than the dropoff in the OT talent after the first round.

I personally have Chase as the #1 WR, but some people have Smith in that spot.  However, Chase makes a lot more sense for us given his connection to Burrow and questions about whether Smith and his slight frame can hold up in the AFCN.

One thing I haven't seen anyone discuss is Miami is pegged for a WR in the first.  They had #12 and #18 and gave up a 1st next year to move back up to 6 to presumably get a WR.  So a team that had 12, 18, 36, and 50 wasn't confident in getting a WR1 at any of those spots and gave up a 1st to come back up for one?  Their scouting department doesn't seem anywhere near as confident in this WR class as a lot of folks around here are.

[Gdale_Bengal]

(03-27-2021, 04:56 PM)Whatever Wrote: I personally have Chase as the #1 WR, but some people have Smith in that spot.  However, Chase makes a lot more sense for us given his connection to Burrow and questions about whether Smith and his slight frame can hold up in the AFCN.

One thing I haven't seen anyone discuss is Miami is pegged for a WR in the first.  They had #12 and #18 and gave up a 1st next year to move back up to 6 to presumably get a WR.  So a team that had 12, 18, 36, and 50 wasn't confident in getting a WR1 at any of those spots and gave up a 1st to come back up for one?  Their scouting department doesn't seem anywhere near as confident in this WR class as a lot of folks around here are.

They also drafted tua last year and he didn’t do very well with him at qb. They might be thinking lb at 6

[BengalsRocker]

Take Chase at #5 or Pitts if you can drop back a few spots.

Save the early 2nd round for OG or C.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-27-2021, 12:27 PM)Synric Wrote: Daniel Jeremiah said he has an updated top 50 and postion rankings coming out this week but he snuck the OT rankings onto Path to the Draft.

His top 5 OTs in order:

Rashawn Slater
Penei Sewell
Jalen Mayfield
Teven Jenkins
Christian Darrisaw

Mayfield and Jenkins over Darrisaw? I’m surprised by that. I think Darrisaw would be a good fit for the Bengals.

I would be happy with Chase or Sewell. I’d also be happy trading back, drafting Darrisaw, and picking up an additional 1st or 2nd round pick.

At #5, you want an elite prospect, an impact player, and an immediate Day 1 plug and play player. The Bengals need a #1 WR to line up at the x position. Chase checks those boxes and has the added bonus of having played with Burrow in college.

In round 2, I’m not sure the Bengals can find a WR1 to line up at the x position. But, I’m almost certain they will be able to find a very good, but not elite, OT or OG who could be a Day 1 plug and play player somewhere along the interior offensive line.

If they draft Sewell at 5 and Terrace Marshall in the 2nd round, I don’t think that improves the team as much as the first option. That’s why I think the Bengals will pick Chase at 5.