03-31-2021, 01:00 PM
I wanted to take a look at who later round guard prospects have fared in the nfl. I did not have a ton of time so went back to 2016. 44 guards were drafted from 2016-2020. 4 of those were moved to play OT and 1 former 1st rounder is out of the league and were not included in this grading. This data includes 2 first round picks: Quenton Nelson and Chris Lindstrom. Also Wyatt teller single handedly skewed the 5th round scores so I showed with and without his numbers.
.Scores were by PFF. The accuracy may be debateable, but the precision is not so I consider this fair enough for an eyeball test.
I gathered 2 sets of info; the score and snap count for their rookie year and the score and snap count for the 2020 season. Feel free to add the intervening data and recalculate the scores.
For reference the scores for Michal Jordan and XSF were an average of 57.90
1st year data:
1st. 73.15 snaps: 722.50
2nd. 56.24 snaps: 689.20
3rd. 47.8 snaps: 736.3
4th. 36.3 snaps: 191.7
5th. 26.5 (23.39 without Wyatt Teller 60.3 ) snaps 110.5 (69.9 without Wyatt Teller)
2020 data:
1st 81.65 snaps: 1102.00
2nd 64.08 snaps: 892.00
3rd 59.28 snaps: 781.00
4th 43.45 snaps: 259.57
5th 40.61 (38.74 without Wyatt Teller 92.9) snaps 268.20 (220.89 without Wyatt Teller)
Looking at this info waiting to select a guard in the 3rd or later round will return a significant immediate drop off from the current level of guard play and an insignificant improvement in the long term. Waiting until the 4th or 5th round serves no purpose other than depth chart filling.
Guards 2016 - 2020.xlsx (Size: 15.19 KB / Downloads: 1)
.Scores were by PFF. The accuracy may be debateable, but the precision is not so I consider this fair enough for an eyeball test.
I gathered 2 sets of info; the score and snap count for their rookie year and the score and snap count for the 2020 season. Feel free to add the intervening data and recalculate the scores.
For reference the scores for Michal Jordan and XSF were an average of 57.90
1st year data:
1st. 73.15 snaps: 722.50
2nd. 56.24 snaps: 689.20
3rd. 47.8 snaps: 736.3
4th. 36.3 snaps: 191.7
5th. 26.5 (23.39 without Wyatt Teller 60.3 ) snaps 110.5 (69.9 without Wyatt Teller)
2020 data:
1st 81.65 snaps: 1102.00
2nd 64.08 snaps: 892.00
3rd 59.28 snaps: 781.00
4th 43.45 snaps: 259.57
5th 40.61 (38.74 without Wyatt Teller 92.9) snaps 268.20 (220.89 without Wyatt Teller)
Looking at this info waiting to select a guard in the 3rd or later round will return a significant immediate drop off from the current level of guard play and an insignificant improvement in the long term. Waiting until the 4th or 5th round serves no purpose other than depth chart filling.
Guards 2016 - 2020.xlsx (Size: 15.19 KB / Downloads: 1)
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