How the Cincinnati Bengals can revolutionize the NFL Draft

[Tomkat]

Has anyone posted this, yet? I looked, but didn't see anything obvious.

https://sportsnaut.com/cincinnati-bengals-revolutionize-nfl-draft/

[Au165]

Sounds cool in Madden but isn't happening in real life for a multitude of reasons. Moving into the top 10 of this year's draft without offering a 1st that isn't 2 years out simply isn't happening. Also, his valuation of future picks is completely off. They essentially get halved for each year out, so that 2024 pick he acts like will have high 2nd/low-end 1st value is way off. The whole "plan" is a bunch of wishful thinking rather than being "bold" or clever.

[XenoMorph]

(04-06-2021, 02:13 PM)Tomkat Wrote: Has anyone posted this, yet?  I looked, but didn't see anything obvious.

https://sportsnaut.com/cincinnati-bengals-revolutionize-nfl-draft/

wait it says improving reputation?  going from around 8 wins a year to 4 is improving the reputation?

but we would have to give up years worth of draft picks for this to work

[RiverRat13]

Miami gave up a future 1st round pick to get back to 6. The article doesn't make sense.

[yang]

(04-06-2021, 02:13 PM)Tomkat Wrote: Has anyone posted this, yet?  I looked, but didn't see anything obvious.

https://sportsnaut.com/cincinnati-bengals-revolutionize-nfl-draft/

It's one of those stupid sites that exists to sell advertising and spews garbled nonsense that drags on forever and ends with a ridiculous scenario.   Ugh.  Trade with Miami?  LOL

[CJD]

What we're realistically talking about is moving from 38 to 6. That's a full round of movement. We haven't really seen much like it in recent history.

The closest I could find is in 2017 when KC moved up to 10th from 27th, about half of a round. It cost a 3rd and 1st rounder. And then, in 2018, the Ravens traded from #52 to #32 to select Lamar Jackson and that cost them a 2nd rounder (and they swapped 4th rounders).

Going from #52 to #32 (20 spots movement) is probably about the same value as moving from #38 to #27 (11 spots movement), since moving up a little higher gains more value even if it's half the movement. Maybe it'd cost a little more to move to #27.

So, if you combine those two values, you have a 1st rounder, a 2nd rounder and a 3rd rounder to get from #38 to #10.

Then, the most recent example of moving a little bit inside the top ~10 to 12 picks is Miami's own trade from #12 to #6, which cost them an additional 1st and swapping a 5th for a 4th.

So, adding it all together, getting from #38 to #6 would cost at least 2 first rounders, a 2nd, a 3rd and let's say a 4th just to account for the two swaps and a little bit of additional value moving up to 27 rather than up to 32...

That's in addition to the #38 pick itself.

So, we're talking 2 1sts, 2 2nds, a 3rd and a 4th to get consecutive picks at 5 and 6. And, as picks lose value each year (because coaches want picks now to keep their jobs), those 3rd and 4th rounders may need to be in this draft. So you're looking at picking #5, #6 and then not another pick until the 5th round. And then you also don't have your 1st or 2nd round pick next year or your 1st round pick in 2023.

And that's the starting price. God knows what would happen if Denver starts throwing their name into the ring in pursuit of the 4th (or 5th) QB.

It's definitely a fun what if, but the price is steep as all hell and not something I'd be willing to entertain, personally.