Final Pre-Draft Simulation...really

[OSUfan]

We all know the back and forth right now...we do not have a #1 WR with the loss of AJ Green but we must protect the franchise by building the offensive line. Most know I am of the build from the trenches out philosophy but more and more I have been pondering why we can't do both because this is the certainly the draft to do it.

This draft is deep on the O line and that is for certain...no argument from me. It also appears that the Bengals staff are pretty set on Williams at LT and Reiff at RT. It appears that more and more people have them going Chase in the first and I am not against it however, if we are doing both I would be more confident if we had more selections to build with. Given this info this was how the simulation went.

Jax - Lawrence
Jets - Wilson
S.F. - Fields
Atl. - Lance

At this point every prospect that are on the radar are still available. Detroit offered the 7th and 41st overall selections for 5 overall. My targets considering a trade were in the following priority Chase, Slater, or Sewell. Yes Slater over Sewell. Given this and not a WR one off the board I took the trade.

Det. - DaVonta Smith
Miami - Pitts

First Round - 7th Overall



Ja'Marr Chase - WR - LSU - 6'0" 201

Simply put he does it all. Pure speed and toughness. Has drawn comparisons to the great Tory Holt. Brings a vital element to this offense and that is the vertical game. A reunion with Joe Burrow is just a bonus of the selection. This selection could make one of the most dynamic and complete trios of receivers in the NFL. This was tough selection to make because I feel protecting the franchise should be done at all costs. However, the way things are shaking out the odds say linemen will slide. Fingers crossed!

Round 2 - 38th Overall



Teven Jenkins - OT - Oklahoma State - 6'5" 317

I fully expected Jenkins to be gone however, the top of the draft had some linemen slide down the first and then the end of the first and the top of the second saw a run on pass rushers which would have been my focus has a OT have not slid that had true value. This selection goes beyond true value and adds a 10 season high caliber RT which we have not seen since Willie. A strong, strong blocker that looks to finish every snap. Brings a nasty demeanor to the position and blocks with the attitude you want every lineman to have. Has the ability to play inside at guard if Reiff stays at RT but ideally see him at RT with Reiff moving to guard.

Round 2 - 41st Overall



Wyatt Davis - OG - The Ohio State - 6'3" 315

I hesitated with this selection simply because Price and Jordan have not lived up to their billings since being drafted. With that said they both performed better under Pollack than under Turner. With Pollack returning we have an instant overall O line upgrade. Now to Davis, the facts are that while he may not have any elite traits he is just a really good overall interior lineman with no real holes in his game at all. He is a powerful player that shows good hand usage. There are small things he needs to polish but I have complete faith in Pollack. The name of the game is protect the franchise so he can exploit defenses with his incredible accuracy.

Round 3 - 69th Overall



Milton Williams - DT - Louisiana Tech - 6'3" 284

Losing Geno really hurt me but this selection makes me feel much better. Shades of Geno and the way he played as a young player. Pure compact power that has the potential to be a dominant 3 technique at the NFL level. The off-season moves that the Bengals made will allow Williams to work in a rotation while getting up to the speed of the NFL game. Should be an early asset on passing downs. Produced 34 reps and a 40 of 4.62 and was unhappy with the bench as he wanted to get to 35. Love that attitude!

Round 4 - 111th Overall



Dayo Odeyingbo - DE - Vanderbilt - 6'5" 276

Brings all of the measurables to the table that you are looking for and has drawn comparisons to Montez Sweat. Has shown nice counter moves rushing the passer and plays with violent hands. Still a bit raw and will benefit from not having to be rushed in as he comes back to 100% from his injury. Has shown the versatility and strength to move inside on obvious passing downs. This kid has a very high ceiling if he can put the measurables and potential together.




Round 5 - 149th Overall



Benjamin St-Juste - CB - Minnesota - 6'3" 202



Brings elite size and length to the position along with being fluid in his transitions. Has shown functional football speed while posting a 4.51 in the 40 at the Minnesota pro day. Very good tackler and has shown well in passes defensed. So why is he still on the boards? He has not recorded a collegiate INT. Well, he is not being drafted as a WR and improving catch ability can be coached. With the upside of this young man I really like the selection at this point in the draft. Evaluators have mentioned that a move to safety could as well fit his abilities but I would work him at CB before considering a transition.

Round 6 - 190th Overall



Tre McKitty - TE - Georgia - 6'4" 247

I am honestly shocked that McKitty consistently shows up this late in the draft. Tre brings an athleticism to the position that we don't quite have right now. While his production has not been huge it is his ability after the catch that excites evaluators. His numbers could very well be a result of inconsistent QB play at Georgia as well. While not a dominant blocker McKitty is a willing blocker and that is the biggest portion of the battle. May need a season on the PS or could steal an end of the roster spot on special teams.

Round 7 - 202nd Overall



Tamorrion Terry - WR - Fla. State - 6'3" 207

Tall long receiver with deep speed. While he has flashed elite moments he needs to refine his catch technique but if he can bring this aspect of his game near level with his measurables then he could be a dangerous player for a NFL offense. Low risk, high reward selection at this point in the draft.

Round 7 - 235th Overall



Darrick Forrest - S - UC - 5'11" 206

While not having elite traits he was a solid performer for UC. Good open field tackler who has shown the ability to read and diagnose the field. A question mark heading into the pro days was his long speed and he produced a 4.42 forty along with a 39" vertical. With his strong overall game it is a low risk selection that could produce a solid developmental player.

Priority UDFAs

The following players went undrafted in this simulation:



Jose Borregales - K - Miami(Fla.)

Any Bengals fan should be tired of missed kicks when the pressure is on. Borregales has a huge leg and has been extremely accurate from distance with a long of 57. Groza award winner.



Bryan Mills - CB - North Carolina Central - 6'1" 174

Very good size and length for the NFL and the way he plays has drawn comparison to Daryl Worley. Has good ball skills and functional football speed. 4.55 forty at his pro day. Has some technique issues that are going to have to be cleaned up if he wishes to make an NFL roster but the overall talent and measurables are there along with the production.



Gerrid Doaks - RB - UC - 5'11" 228

A compact bowling ball of power. It has been stated that Doaks "runs angry". While he was not utilized much as a receiver when he was he produced with some very big plays. Excellent in pass protection which was one of the strengths of Gio. We need a back that can spell Mixon frequently and help keep him healthy. Doaks has shown he can handle plenty of carries.



Brenden Jaimes - OT - Nebraska - 6'5" 300

Jaimes has been an extremely consistent performer for the Huskers and made 40 straight starts for them. Played RT and LT and has shown the athletic ability to play LT but will need to continue to gain strength and anchor. Could be a good swing tackle. Evaluators have stated the with his football IQ teams have been interested in a move to the interior line and was seen snapping the ball at his pro day. Coaching staffs said he has an impressive week at the senior bowl.

[phil413]

Props for spelling out your logic on a trade back. A lot to consider. On paper, it looks weird to see Chase at #7. Would Detroit deal up to land Smith? Maybe if they feared Cincy would take him (not likely with Burrow/Chase connection) or Miami would. Which sheds light on Miami passing on Chase if Smith falls to 6. They have the Bama battery connection, so I mean it's possible again it just looks weird. If you get there, this is an instant A+ draft to add anything at all and still get Chase.

Jenkins in the 2nd is the best case scenario for sure. I don't know that I'd hold the school against Davis, it's up to the staff to sift out what the player actually is. Great write up on Williams, the DT class is bad so it's hard to find a good fit but he would make a lot of sense as a UT to prep.

[*ochocincos*]

The simulation really had DeVonta Smith taken by DET even though Chase and Pitts were there?
Not sure I would believe that would happen.

If we instead assume Chase was the selection at 5 and then Pitts at 6, who would you take at 7?

[OSUfan]

(04-22-2021, 03:01 AM)phil413 Wrote: Props for spelling out your logic on a trade back.  A lot to consider.  On paper, it looks weird to see Chase at #7.  Would Detroit deal up to land Smith?  Maybe if they feared Cincy would take him (not likely with Burrow/Chase connection) or Miami would.  Which sheds light on Miami passing on Chase if Smith falls to 6.  They have the Bama battery connection, so I mean it's possible again it just looks weird.  If you get there, this is an instant A+ draft to add anything at all and still get Chase.  

Jenkins in the 2nd is the best case scenario for sure. I don't know that I'd hold the school against Davis, it's up to the staff to sift out what the player actually is.  Great write up on Williams, the DT class is bad so it's hard to find a good fit but he would make a lot of sense as a UT to prep.

Thanks for the reply. I agree with everything you have said and I think the underlying theme is that while we like to believe we know a little bit about what teams may or may not do we really do not. As you have shown there can be motivations to what prods teams along in selections they make. Some teams can may feel more comfortable with players coached by a specific staff. There could be a trait they have graded high for a player that they find more important than a trait graded high by another team.

I prefer simulations over just a random mock of who I would actually like in a situation because just like the draft it is unpredictable. While I and others may feel Chase is the best WR talent in the draft there are those that may feel Smith or Waddle are better fits in what they are doing or with what they have as far as in-house talent.

I will say right now, while some feel Sewell is the hands down best O line prospect in the draft, I would disagree and I feel Slater is the best O line prospect in this draft. I would not mind his selection at #5 if the staff feels O line is the higher need.

[OSUfan]

(04-22-2021, 02:15 PM)ochocincos Wrote: The simulation really had DeVonta Smith taken by DET even though Chase and Pitts were there?
Not sure I would believe that would happen.

If we instead assume Chase was the selection at 5 and then Pitts at 6, who would you take at 7?

I will address your question first....with Chase and Pitts off the board at #7 I select Rashawn Slater. I feel he is the best O line prospect in this draft, even if he is being selected purely as an OT. I believe he is more sound in technique and has better feet than Sewell. Slater seems to show a very high football IQ and coming out of the Northwestern program you know he is extremely intelligent and is very well coached. 

Now to the original statement...I understand why you may not believe those selections would happen but we also o not know what Detroit and Miami how as most valuable in their selection of a player and or how they feel the available player fits best with their scheme and in-house players. Many variables that are specific to each program and staff.

[Emeritus]

(04-24-2021, 11:16 AM)OSUfan Wrote: I will address your question first....with Chase and Pitts off the board at #7 I select Rashawn Slater. I feel he is the best O line prospect in this draft, even if he is being selected purely as an OT. I believe he is more sound in technique and has better feet than Sewell. Slater seems to show a very high football IQ and coming out of the Northwestern program you know he is extremely intelligent and is very well coached. 

Now to the original statement...I understand why you may not believe those selections would happen but we also o not know what Detroit and Miami how as most valuable in their selection of a player and or how they feel the available player fits best with their scheme and in-house players. Many variables that are specific to each program and staff.

That would be a senario where your comfortable taking the kid from Northwestern. Or.. DeVonta Smith will be a star and you can put me on the record.4/24/21

[OSUfan]

(04-24-2021, 03:54 PM)Emeritus Wrote: That would be a senario where your comfortable taking the kid from Northwestern. Or.. DeVonta Smith will be a star and you can put me on the record.4/24/21

Not certain at all what you are trying to say here. Yes I would be comfortable with them taking Slater and yes DeVonta Smith certainly has the potential to be a star.