Next Gen Stats “Can’t Miss Prospects”

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 01:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: It will be interesting to see if Meyer can adjust to the NFL.
Bevell is the OC, and he hasn't really ran a good offense since the mid-2010's Seahawks, which was when the offense ran through Marshawn Lynch. He's never really ran a passing-oriented offense and succeeded.

I am a big fan of Meyer, but more at the college level.  His ability to exploit COLLEGE defenses made his offenses legendary.  Sure, he is a great recruiter as well.  However, in the pro game, there are not the duds on defense that he saw at least in the majority of his college opponents.  If he has an elaborate scheme that takes a while to uncover, Lawrence will get pummeled.  That being said, they have a cupcake division with only the Colts being a solid contender. 

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2021, 02:07 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I am a big fan of Meyer, but more at the college level.  His ability to exploit COLLEGE defenses made his offenses legendary.  Sure, he is a great recruiter as well.  However, in the pro game, there are not the duds on defense that he saw at least in the majority of his college opponents.  If he has an elaborate scheme that takes a while to uncover, Lawrence will get pummeled.  That being said, they have a cupcake division with only the Colts being a solid contender. 

Uhh...what?
You don't consider the Titans a solid contender?

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 02:11 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Uhh...what?
You don't consider the Titans a solid contender?

No, I don't.  They are limited at QB and their defense is very suspect.  They have a great rushing attack, and that is about it.  

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2021, 02:31 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: No, I don't.  They are limited at QB and their defense is very suspect.  They have a great rushing attack, and that is about it.  

They've had at least 9 wins every season since 2016.

Dog Tannehill all you want, but he still threw for 3819 yards with a 65.5% completion with 33 TDs and just 7 INTs.
When he took over as the starter the year prior, he had 2742 yards with a 70.3% completion with 22 TDs and 6 INTs across 10 starts.

He's not an elite QB, but he's good enough to get wins and make passes in a run-oriented offense.

They may not contend for a championship, but they're still better than JAX and will probably have a winning record again.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 02:53 PM)ochocincos Wrote: They've had at least 9 wins every season since 2016.

Dog Tannehill all you want, but he still threw for 3819 yards with a 65.5% completion with 33 TDs and just 7 INTs.
When he took over as the starter the year prior, he had 2742 yards with a 70.3% completion with 22 TDs and 6 INTs across 10 starts.

He's not an elite QB, but he's good enough to get wins and make passes in a run-oriented offense.

They may not contend for a championship, but they're still better than JAX and will probably have a winning record again.

Their defense was so bad that the Bengals put a 30 burger on them with 3 or 4 new guys on the offensive line.  Jax might actually score some points this year, and they could get beat in a shootout with them.  Tannehill is Dalton.  They aren't going that far with him the way the team is assembled now.  The Texans are a train wreck, though.  Most vegas sportbooks have their over/under at 9.5 for the 2021 season with a 17 game schedule.  

Last year, the Titans started out 5-0, including a very solid win over Buffalo, but went 6-5 down the stretch with four of their wins coming against Chicago, Jacksonville, Houston, and Detroit.  I think once everyone got in shape post-covid, the Titans were not the stalwart they started out as and they also lost both their starting CBs, their #1 pass rusher, and their #1 WR. I think they are in trouble this year.  

I called it a cupcake division aside from Indy and I stand by that.  

[fredtoast]

(04-23-2021, 02:31 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: No, I don't.  They are limited at QB 

Since becoming the starter in 2019 Tannehill has a 110.6 passer rating and 55 tds in just 26 games.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-23-2021, 03:13 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Their defense was so bad that the Bengals put a 30 burger on them with 3 or 4 new guys on the offensive line.  Jax might actually score some points this year, and they could get beat in a shootout with them.  Tannehill is Dalton.  They aren't going that far with him the way the team is assembled now.  The Texans are a train wreck, though.  Most vegas sportbooks have their over/under at 9.5 for the 2021 season with a 17 game schedule.  

Last year, the Titans started out 5-0, including a very solid win over Buffalo, but went 6-5 down the stretch with four of their wins coming against Chicago, Jacksonville, Houston, and Detroit.  I think once everyone got in shape post-covid, the Titans were not the stalwart they started out as and they also lost both their starting CBs, their #1 pass rusher, and their #1 WR. I think they are in trouble this year.  

I called it a cupcake division aside from Indy and I stand by that.  

They didn't lose their #1 WR, they lost their #2 WR.

AJ Brown had more targets, receptions, yards, and TDs than Corey Davis.
By all accounts, Davis was the WR2.
They signed Josh Reynolds, who probably will take Davis's spot as WR2 unless they draft someone. I would expect Reynolds to put up 700+ yards if he's the WR2.

As for pass rusher, they signed Bud Dupree, who was way more productive than Clowney.
They also signed Autry, who I expect to be a solid pass rusher opposite of Dupree.
I expect their pass rush to be better than last year.

Regarding CBs, yes they did lose Jackson and Butler, but they did sign Janoris Jenkins and will probably draft a guy in 1st or 2nd round to start opposite of him. Jackson was basically out all year last year, so the DBs will almost assuredly be better compared to last year.

Last, losing Lewan last year was a big hit to them. I expect their OL to be much better with Lewan back.

I think you are underestimating how good the Titans are still, but we'll see how the season plays out I guess.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 03:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since becoming the starter in 2019 Tannehill has a 110.6 passer rating and 55 tds in just 26 games.

And he played twice a year against Jacksonville and a very suspect Texans defense.  Think he would do that in the AFC North?  He's the perfect example of how to not lose a game, but what has he done in the postseason?  Been put in the back seat to an amazing rushing attack.  The biggest knock on the Titans isn't Tannehill, if you read the entire post.  It is their defense.  I said he is Dalton, and Dalton was pretty good when he had a supporting cast.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 03:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: They didn't lose their #1 WR, they lost their #2 WR.

AJ Brown had more targets, receptions, yards, and TDs than Corey Davis.
By all accounts, Davis was the WR2.
They signed Josh Reynolds, who probably will take Davis's spot as WR2 unless they draft someone. I would expect Reynolds to put up 700+ yards if he's the WR2.

As for pass rusher, they signed Bud Dupree, who was way more productive than Clowney.
They also signed Autry, who I expect to be a solid pass rusher opposite of Dupree.
I expect their pass rush to be better than last year.

Regarding CBs, yes they did lose Jackson and Butler, but they did sign Janoris Jenkins and will probably draft a guy in 1st or 2nd round to start opposite of him. Jackson was basically out all year last year, so the DBs will almost assuredly be better compared to last year.

Last, losing Lewan last year was a big hit to them. I expect their OL to be much better with Lewan back.

I think you are underestimating how good the Titans are still, but we'll see how the season plays out I guess.

I am taking the under 9.5 wins, even in their sorry division.

[Burma]

(04-23-2021, 03:17 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Since becoming the starter in 2019 Tannehill has a 110.6 passer rating and 55 tds in just 26 games.

That well built offensive line, that had enough depth to weather the loss of Lewan, and good running game has really allowed Tannehill to shine.  Those numbers are even more impressive when you consider their starting WR are ranked 19th, 33rd, and 137th in the league, solid but not incredible.  

[Murdock2420]

(04-23-2021, 03:34 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: I am taking the under 9.5 wins, even in their sorry division.

So you predict the under for the Titans while also in another thread saying the Bengals will draft Chase and make the playoffs because of it??

You should save your money and never go to Vegas with these projections.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-23-2021, 10:42 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Truth.  Even Trubisky made a Pro Bowl, which I didn't remember.  Maybe the "action" should be the "first ballot" before all the drop outs.  Heck, are they even playing the Pro Bowl any more?

I assume they're still playing the Pro Bowl. Just didn't last year due to COVID travel.

Also, even "first ballot" Pro Bowl, I think I would still probably bet on Lawrence getting at least 1..... 
-Drew Brees retired.
-Philip Rivers retired.
-Aaron Rodgers is heading into his age 38 season.
-Ben Roethlisberger is heading into his age 39 season.
-Tom Brady is heading into his age 44 season.
-Deshaun Watson might be heading out of the league.

There's going to be a big changing of the guard in 1-3 years, and it's already started a bit. Right now the only young (or young-ish) Pro Bowl locks at QB are Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. That's a whole lot of open ground for another QB to sneak in since there's 6 QBs chosen for the Pro Bowl each year.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 04:00 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: So you predict the under for the Titans while also in another thread saying the Bengals will draft Chase and make the playoffs because of it??

You should save your money and never go to Vegas with these projections.

If you are so sure I will be wrong, put your money where your mouth is...

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-23-2021, 06:11 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: I assume they're still playing the Pro Bowl. Just didn't last year due to COVID travel.

Also, even "first ballot" Pro Bowl, I think I would still probably bet on Lawrence getting at least 1..... 
-Drew Brees retired.
-Philip Rivers retired.
-Aaron Rodgers is heading into his age 38 season.
-Ben Roethlisberger is heading into his age 39 season.
-Tom Brady is heading into his age 44 season.
-Deshaun Watson might be heading out of the league.

There's going to be a big changing of the guard in 1-3 years, and it's already started a bit. Right now the only young (or young-ish) Pro Bowl locks at QB are Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. That's a whole lot of open ground for another QB to sneak in since there's 6 QBs chosen for the Pro Bowl each year.

Lot of truth here, but you didn't mention Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahommes, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and even our own Joe Burrow.  I think with the weapons Lawrence will have in Jax and their schedule has the AFC East (fairly good defenses all) and the NFC West (perhaps the only division as tough or tougher than the AFC North), I would be shocked if he somehow ended up in the initial top 6.  I think he will really struggle with NFL defenses.  Just my opinion and I know I am in the vast minority.  

[Murdock2420]

(04-24-2021, 12:04 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: If you are so sure I will be wrong, put your money where your mouth is...

I did.

I posted about it all ready. I drove to Lawrenceburg and bet on the pick of Chase as well as the under on the season. Figure if I'm going to dislike the pick and the season might as well make money. 

The thing is, even if they took Sewell I'd bet the under.

Taylor still coaching. Lou has the defense and this team needs two great drafts to restock the talent levels. It is probably the biggest reason I want Sewell now. He develops in a down season and bam 2022 you plug in missing pieces. 

People said the same thing last year about Burrow. We draft Joe and we might sneak into the playoffs. We aren't good enough yet.

People say we have Pollack who can "fix" the line with how good he is, well if you believe Pollack is that good then he'd get Sewell to his ceiling of a HoF level lineman. I'd rather see them spend the season getting the line right and then when you hit 2022, one or two guys picked can come in to push us over.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-24-2021, 01:15 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I did.

I posted about it all ready. I drove to Lawrenceburg and bet on the pick of Chase as well as the under on the season. Figure if I'm going to dislike the pick and the season might as well make money. 

The thing is, even if they took Sewell I'd bet the under.

Taylor still coaching. Lou has the defense and this team needs two great drafts to restock the talent levels. It is probably the biggest reason I want Sewell now. He develops in a down season and bam 2022 you plug in missing pieces. 

People said the same thing last year about Burrow. We draft Joe and we might sneak into the playoffs. We aren't good enough yet.

People say we have Pollack who can "fix" the line with how good he is, well if you believe Pollack is that good then he'd get Sewell to his ceiling of a HoF level lineman. I'd rather see them spend the season getting the line right and then when you hit 2022, one or two guys picked can come in to push us over.

You mocked my statements about the Titans going under and the Bengals making the playoffs if they draft Chase and he, Boyd, Higgins and Burrow stay healthy all season.  I said "put your money where your mouth is" in relation to those statement.  If you are so sure I am wrong, wager with me.  

[Murdock2420]

(04-24-2021, 03:01 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: You mocked my statements about the Titans going under and the Bengals making the playoffs if they draft Chase and he, Boyd, Higgins and Burrow stay healthy all season.  I said "put your money where your mouth is" in relation to those statement.  If you are so sure I am wrong, wager with me.  

Oh okay... and how do we collect on this magical wager, cause I tend to avoid giving my information out to weirdos on the internet.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-24-2021, 03:08 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Oh okay... and how do we collect on this magical wager, cause I tend to avoid giving my information out to weirdos on the internet.

Might I make a suggestion? The loser of the bet could just make a donation to the board (directly to Holic). It’s what we do on the hockey board I’m a member of. Makes things interesting, and helps go towards the costs associated with running a site like this. Just a thought.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(04-24-2021, 12:11 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: Lot of truth here, but you didn't mention Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahommes, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford, and even our own Joe Burrow.  I think with the weapons Lawrence will have in Jax and their schedule has the AFC East (fairly good defenses all) and the NFC West (perhaps the only division as tough or tougher than the AFC North), I would be shocked if he somehow ended up in the initial top 6.  I think he will really struggle with NFL defenses.  Just my opinion and I know I am in the vast minority.  

Quote:Right now the only young (or young-ish) Pro Bowl locks at QB are Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson.

Lamar Jackson needs to get back to at least throwing over 200 yards a game, and his OL is dissolving around him.
Baker Mayfield has 0 Pro Bowls and is more hype because the Browns have a QB with a winning record more than actual stats.
Kyler Murray is still just so small. I am not sure I believe he'll stay healthy long enough to be a mainstay.
Josh Allen... I need to see him repeat before I buy in that 2020 is the real him now.
Matthew Stafford has 1 Pro Bowl in 12 years, and it was in 2014. He's more proof that Lawrence will get at least 1 than proof against it. Lol
Joe Burrow first thing first, needs to play an entire season and he needs to be above average in that season.


None of those guys fall into the same category of Brees/Rodgers/Brady of being perennial guys who are basically eating up slots before the season even really starts.


What Lawrence has in his favor is a mediocre division. The Carson Wentz Colts and the Tyrod Taylor Texans aren't exactly intimidating. The Titans are the only good team in that division right now, and even they had the 24th ranked scoring defense last year so even if Lawrence loses, he should lose with some big numbers.


Should be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next couple years.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-24-2021, 03:08 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Oh okay... and how do we collect on this magical wager, cause I tend to avoid giving my information out to weirdos on the internet.

Well, it could have been something funny like a sig bet and you have never used this magical tool called Venmo?