My final pre-draft thoughts on Chase/Sewell

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(04-23-2021, 07:40 PM)Beaker Wrote: Chase is the safer and smarter pick, hands down.

While I would not object to the Chase pick, I don't think I agree with this assertion.

It is true that more doubts can be raised about Sewell given his measurements, his competition, etc. I would agree with this assertion:

Chase is a safer pick relative to the WR position group than Sewell is relative to the OL position group. That's not quite the same thing though, because it doesn't account for base rate.

Offensive lineman selected in the first round become franchise stalwarts more consistently than first round wide receivers do. It's not particularly close: WRs bust constantly. No matter how good a WR prospect looks, I would nearly never call one a truly "safe" pick. The only exception that readily comes to mind from semi-recent memory is Calvin Johnson. He was a safe pick. Is Chase in that stratosphere? I don't think so.

I think Sewell is a safer choice than Chase is. That doesn't mean Sewell is a better choice than Chase is. Indeed at this point I tend to lean slightly toward Chase as my own preference, but I do so acknowledging that it comes with greater risk.

[ezekiel23]

Dan Hoard just interviewed Doke Tobin concerning the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.Threw a lot of questions at him in reference to O-linemen and WR in the draft.Tobin was impressed with the talent this draft class has to offer Offensive line.But not so deep on elite WR.He said,and I quote,”they had starter grades on O-linemen in the second and third rounds”.Not so much with the wide receivers.So my question is,If you can get that high quality O-Lineman in those rounds,then why not just go ahead and take Chase at 5? Sounds to me like he may have unintentionally tipped his hand.Watched the interview on YouTube.

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 10:20 PM)SadFaceBengal15 Wrote: Fun read but this is when u take Sewell u build ur team inside out.  It’s that simple.

A guard (where Sewell projects to) at 5 is insane to me, especially when you can get 80% of that same player with the body to kick out to OT in the 2nd.

Even so, if it's Sewell, I'll still be 100% behind it!

[PDub80]

(04-23-2021, 11:52 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Dan Hoard just interviewed Doke Tobin concerning the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.Threw a lot of questions at him in reference to O-linemen and WR in the draft.Tobin was impressed with the talent this draft class has to offer Offensive line.But not so deep on elite WR.He said,and I quote,”they had starter grades on O-linemen in the second and third rounds”.Not so much with the wide receivers.So my question is,If you can get that high quality O-Lineman in those rounds,then why not just go ahead and take Chase at 5? Sounds to me like he may have unintentionally tipped his hand.Watched the interview on YouTube.

^ This

[phil413]

(04-23-2021, 11:52 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Dan Hoard just interviewed Doke Tobin concerning the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.Threw a lot of questions at him in reference to O-linemen and WR in the draft.Tobin was impressed with the talent this draft class has to offer Offensive line.But not so deep on elite WR.He said,and I quote,”they had starter grades on O-linemen in the second and third rounds”.Not so much with the wide receivers.So my question is,If you can get that high quality O-Lineman in those rounds,then why not just go ahead and take Chase at 5? Sounds to me like he may have unintentionally tipped his hand.Watched the interview on YouTube.

Very well could be.  I think we have to be careful with hedging bets on the probability that a "starter" level player is there in rounds 2 and 3.  Mikey justified the 90's drafts as great with giving us stats of how many "starters" the Bengals got from those drafts.  As if treading out inadequate players at key positions made them good because they started the game.  

I do think that he has a point specific to the Bengals.  If Boyd is a true slot, then most of the guys that could be there in the 2nd or 3rd are also slot guys...so they wouldn't start.  If our biggest weaknesses are OL (1st rd) and pass rush (2nd rd) then you can actually get a "starter" at WR in the 3rd that could challenge Tate.  

It may be smoke, but if he really believes you can't get a starter in the 2nd then deal a 4th and get into the back of the 1st and get your starter in Marshall Jr or Bateman.  If Chase is worth passing on a stud LT then talk him up, don't sell me that your goal this draft was to find starters at two positions.  With that logic, lets keep trading back and land starters at WR late 1st, get two of those starters on the OL and a starter on the DL and another starter at TE since a 3rd could beat out CJ.  Then there is FA too.  Instead of the decision maker lamenting the WR class he could just prepare for a starter at WR not swaying the draft by passing on a similar BPA at a bigger need an being afraid to take a good trade package.  Makes you wonder if Chase is the guy.....what happens if Chase goes #4?  

[phil413]

(04-24-2021, 12:12 AM)PDub80 Wrote: A guard (where Sewell projects to) at 5 is insane to me, especially when you can get 80% of that same player with the body to kick out to OT in the 2nd.

Even so, if it's Sewell, I'll still be 100% behind it!

Sewell is an elite tackle prospect, if he played guard it would be for the same reasoning that Whit did.  I'm fine with angering Williams or Reiff if Sewell is the better tackle though.  

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-24-2021, 12:12 AM)PDub80 Wrote: A guard (where Sewell projects to) at 5 is insane to me, especially when you can get 80% of that same player with the body to kick out to OT in the 2nd.

Even so, if it's Sewell, I'll still be 100% behind it!

Sewell is not going to be a OG long term.

[ah5]

(04-23-2021, 03:57 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I would not mind dropping to #9 (Denver).  

I think #15 (New England) would be the next option but I would not really want to drop that far.

Would swapping with Denver get an extra 2 this year and a 1 next year?

[PDub80]

(04-24-2021, 12:22 AM)phil413 Wrote: Sewell is an elite tackle prospect, if he played guard it would be for the same reasoning that Whit did.  I'm fine with angering Williams or Reiff if Sewell is the better tackle though.  

(04-24-2021, 01:02 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Sewell is not going to be a OG long term.

I don'tsee it. Reading a bunch of articles on the Athletic recently. They have been covering the draft and different prospects with interviews from NFL scouts and coaches. It isn't all roses with Sewell. I agree with one o line coach's assesment: Potential to be an elite guard or an ok OT. A lot... a LOT of NFL personnel interviews are less than over the moon on Sewell's prospects at OT. Same with Slater.

Time will tell. I don't mind putting it out there that I think Sewell is more guard material than anything else. Let the record state!

[Beaker]

Here is another factor that bolsters the Chase pick at #5:

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/4/23/22400055/nfl-news-ravens-trade-orlando-brown-to-chiefs-for-1st-round-pick

The Chiefs are another team that is O line needy. It was well known their first pick was likely O line. With this trade they no longer have to go O line in the first, which increases the possibility there is even more O line talent available to us at #38.

Chase at 5, OL at 38 (and likely beyond too). This is how you build the strongest team.

[fredtoast]

(04-23-2021, 11:52 PM)ezekiel23 Wrote: Dan Hoard just interviewed Doke Tobin concerning the upcoming 2021 NFL draft.Threw a lot of questions at him in reference to O-linemen and WR in the draft.Tobin was impressed with the talent this draft class has to offer Offensive line.But not so deep on elite WR.He said,and I quote,”they had starter grades on O-linemen in the second and third rounds”.Not so much with the wide receivers.So my question is,If you can get that high quality O-Lineman in those rounds,then why not just go ahead and take Chase at 5? Sounds to me like he may have unintentionally tipped his hand.Watched the interview on YouTube.

This comment is why I think the Bengals will probably take Chase at #5.

There are many arguments being repeated over and over here, but to me it boils down to the fact that our need at O-line is just much greater than our need at WR.  We have 2 good WRs under contract for 3 more years and we just need 3 starters.  On the O-line we have one good and one decent player (who is returning from injury) under contract past 2021 and we need 5 starters.

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2021, 09:22 AM)Beaker Wrote: Here is another factor that bolsters the Chase pick at #5:

https://www.cincyjungle.com/2021/4/23/22400055/nfl-news-ravens-trade-orlando-brown-to-chiefs-for-1st-round-pick

The Chiefs are another team that is O line needy. It was well known their first pick was likely O line. With this trade they no longer have to go O line in the first, which increases the possibility there is even more O line talent available to us at #38.

Chase at 5, OL at 38 (and likely beyond too). This is how you build the strongest team.

 

Or you could say that this proves the Chiefs new there would not be a high quality O-lineman available at #31 which means for sure there won't be one at #38.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-23-2021, 04:05 PM)jj22 Wrote: I think Carolina would be the only true threat to take Sewell. I think he's there at 9 tho.

I think Waddle could go before Sewell (to answer your question).

I tend to agree but I don;t think Denver is moving up.. if anything they are moving back if they don;t stay at #9.  So it would need to be Carolina to want to jump to #5 for the most likely 4th QB... I prefer not to fall back past Denver since they also are in need of a tackle to get Sewell

[Sled21]

If we take Sewell (which I'm totally fine with), we will be listening for years to people complain as Chase tears it up in the NFL for some other team. If we take Chase (which is where I lean) and Sewell becomes an elite LT, as long as we have a decent LT no one will notice. But maybe another intangible no one is talking about in regards to picking Chase is Thaddeus Moss. Moss has yet to play a down in the NFL. Reuniting him with not only Burrow, but also with Chase, can only be a good thing to get him comfortable and going.

[BURROWorBUST]

Shake nailed it. The Bengals really need to draft Sewell. I think we already have a #1WR in Higgins. We have a slot guy in Boyd. We need a Chris Henry type WR. I'll nominate Tamorrion Terry for that role. He even wears #15. I think he'd be a perfect fit in the 4th or 5th round.

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-24-2021, 11:01 AM)Sled21 Wrote: If we take Sewell (which I'm totally fine with), we will be listening for years to people complain as Chase tears it up in the NFL for some other team. If we take Chase (which is where I lean) and Sewell becomes an elite LT, as long as we have a decent LT no one will notice. But maybe another intangible no one is talking about in regards to picking Chase is Thaddeus Moss. Moss has yet to play a down in the NFL. Reuniting him with not only Burrow, but also with Chase, can only be a good thing to get him comfortable and going.

I don't think we'd hear for years if Chase tears it up. We took John Ross one spot ahead of Patrick Mahommes and i don't hear that mentioned too often. In order to hear about Chase he'd have to do what Mahommes does and make his team a superbowl contender every year and not even Calvin Johnson could do that. 

[BengalsBong]

(04-24-2021, 11:30 AM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: Shake nailed it. The Bengals really need to draft Sewell. I think we already have a #1WR in Higgins. We have a slot guy in Boyd. We need a Chris Henry type WR. I'll nominate Tamorrion Terry for that role. He even wears #15. I think he'd be a perfect fit in the 4th or 5th round.

We run 3WR 82% of the time you think a 4th or 5th round pick can start year one is laughable. We need at least two speed WR and one of them has to be a starter year one and make an impact.

We lost 47 catches and 523 yards with A.J. Green leaving. We lost 47 catches and 355 yards by losing Gio. Perine and Trayveon can make up for Gio production. But you want to put a 4th or 5th round rookie in his first year to make up for the loss of Green and Ross. 

Tate 14 catches and 150 yards, Thomas 13 catches 132 yards and Trenton Irwin 1 catch for 5 yards and a rookie 4th or 5th round pick is not going to get it done.

[Bengalholic]

(04-24-2021, 11:56 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: We run 3WR 82% of the time you think a 4th or 5th round pick can start year one is laughable. We need at least two speed WR and one of them has to be a starter year one and make an impact.

We lost 47 catches and 523 yards with A.J. Green leaving. We lost 47 catches and 355 yards by losing Gio. Perine and Trayveon can make up for Gio production. But you want to put a 4th or 5th round rookie in his first year to make up for the loss of Green and Ross. 

Tate 14 catches and 150 yards, Thomas 13 catches 132 yards and Trenton Irwin 1 catch for 5 yards and a rookie 4th or 5th round pick is not going to get it done.

Yeah, and if they continue anywhere close to that this year, they're really going to need a dependable outside guy opposite Higgins that can not only provide a vertical threat when needed, but be able to win on the boundaries as well. This issue with many of the guys after round one is a lot of them are going to end up being primarily slot receivers...and of the outside guys, many are going to need time to develop. 

For me, this is what makes the decision a little tougher. 

[BURROWorBUST]

(04-24-2021, 11:41 AM)NUGDUKWE Wrote: I don't think we'd hear for years if Chase tears it up. We took John Ross one spot ahead of Patrick Mahommes and i don't hear that mentioned too often. In order to hear about Chase he'd have to do what Mahommes does and make his team a superbowl contender every year and not even Calvin Johnson could do that. 

We're going to get crucified either way. Just be ready for it.

(04-24-2021, 11:56 AM)BengalsBong Wrote: We run 3WR 82% of the time you think a 4th or 5th round pick can start year one is laughable. We need at least two speed WR and one of them has to be a starter year one and make an impact.

We lost 47 catches and 523 yards with A.J. Green leaving. We lost 47 catches and 355 yards by losing Gio. Perine and Trayveon can make up for Gio production. But you want to put a 4th or 5th round rookie in his first year to make up for the loss of Green and Ross. 

Tate 14 catches and 150 yards, Thomas 13 catches 132 yards and Trenton Irwin 1 catch for 5 yards and a rookie 4th or 5th round pick is not going to get it done.

OH, I know. I can build you one hell of a case for Chase. The biggest part of me WANTS to take Pitts or Chase. I can build a case for Pitts, too. But there is a case to be made for Sewell. It's a more conservative approach, and it's the one the Bengals are likely to take. More likely than Chase or Pitts? I don't know. Just a feeling. But then I walso have a feeling that the Falcons take Sewell, leaving us with the choice of Pitts or Chase, in which case I think they'd go Chase. 

[NUGDUKWE]

(04-24-2021, 12:09 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: Yeah, and if they continue anywhere close to that this year, they're really going to need a dependable outside guy opposite Higgins that can not only provide a vertical threat when needed, but be able to win on the boundaries as well. This issue with many of the guys after round one is a lot of them are going to end up being primarily slot receivers...and of the outside guys, many are going to need time to develop. 

For me, this is what makes the decision a little tougher. 

We have time for players to develop. We aren't doing anything this year no matter who we draft. Best case scenario we go .500 ( or close since that's no longer possible ) and I have a very hard time seeing that happening. If we get thru this year with a healthy Joe Burrow, some signs of legitimate progress and an offensive line that is set at least on paper. That would be huge and a chance to get the pieces in place in next years draft to have success.