Serious Question about OL talent in round 2.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-24-2021, 05:24 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: I think you are right on Radunz needing time to develop but again people are saying we can wait till round 2 to get OL help and we don't need a tackle.. every one of those guys Leatherwood, Radunz, Eichenberg, and Jenkins are tackles. 

I'm just not sure why we are okay taking a round two tackle and flipping him to guard when it is taboo to do it in round one? 

I get the love for Meinerz and I share that love, he will be a good fit for us as he is a natural interior lineman, same with Trey Smith from Tennessee, or Green from Illinois (well sort of natural as he was a DL that was converted) but at least these are inside guys. 

If we need a tackle (Leatherwood, Radunz, etc) then take the best one, if you need guards and that is why we pass on Sewell, then don't take a tackle in round two. Humphrey, Meinerz, Cleveland,  Smith, those all make sense but pick 38 might be too soon for them?

The truth is that the Bengals should double down on OL, in two of the first 3 picks.  However, fantasy football has jaded so many to believe that the way to create a strong team is weapons, weapons, weapons.  The reality of the matter is that the team with all the good weapons lost the Superbowl, because their OL was weak that day, and couldn't protect their franchise QB..

[Burma]

(04-24-2021, 05:43 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: The truth is that the Bengals should double down on OL, in two of the first 3 picks.  However, fantasy football has jaded so many to believe that the way to create a strong team is weapons, weapons, weapons.  The reality of the matter is that the team with all the good weapons lost the Superbowl, because their OL was weak that day, and couldn't protect their franchise QB..

And they have spent this offseason rebuilding that offensive line based on the lessons learned.  Guess champion just think differently than cellar dwellers.

[SunsetBengal]

(04-24-2021, 06:34 PM)Burma Wrote: And they have spent this offseason rebuilding that offensive line based on the lessons learned.  Guess champion just think differently than cellar dwellers.

And that, my friend is the cold, hard truth.

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 06:34 PM)Burma Wrote: And they have spent this offseason rebuilding that offensive line based on the lessons learned.  Guess champion just think differently than cellar dwellers.

Pretty easy to spend most of your resources on your OL when that is the only soft spot on your roster, though.  

[Burma]

(04-24-2021, 09:09 PM)Whatever Wrote: Pretty easy to spend most of your resources on your OL when that is the only soft spot on your roster, though.  

They have earned themselves that luxury through having a solid team building approach.  The Cheifs could have easily chased Kenny Golladay or some other flashy toy for Mahomes and relied on finding these "starting offensive linemen in the 2nd and 3rd round" we keep hearing about. Instead they took the approach of rebuilding a weakness that cost them a championship instead of fortifying a strength.  

[Essex Johnson]

(04-24-2021, 03:19 AM)Whatever Wrote: Different situations completely.  KC was in the SB last year and won it the year before.  Orlando Brown is still very young and is already a 2x Pro Bowler.  With any draft pick, there is an element of risk, no matter how confident you are in your evaluation.  Brown is a sure thing, or as close as you can get to it.  That close to a championship and with that few holes, it makes sense.  For a team like the Bengals that needs to increase it's talent base in a number of different position groups, it doesn't make sense.  To that point, KC lost a Pro Bowl LT in Eric Fisher that they are trying to replace with a player of equal ability.  It's simply not realistic to think any rookie T, even the top guys like Sewell and Slater, will step in and play at Fisher's level as a rookie.   It should also be noted that last year Deandre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs were traded before what was considered a stacked WR draft.  It certainly didn't mean there were no good WR's left after round 1.

KC also needed a starting LT.  The Bengals don't.  The Bengals need a starting RG and/or LG.  That's going to mean the Bengals will have a lot more viable options than the Chiefs will.  Also keep in mind that Baltimore is confident enough in this draft class to find Brown's replacement, similar to the Vikings finding Diggs' replacement in Jefferson last year.  

The Bengals need top Oline regardless position besides  they do need tackles.. Williams hurt for two years.. Reiff signed for a year.. no very good backups, also you see more and more Oline play tackle and guard... Going from #5 to #38 is potentially a major drop at both Oline and WR... 

And if we are going by need we  already have two quality starting NFL WRs (which is more than we can say at tackle/guard) so do we really need a WR at #5 ?

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 09:34 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: The Bengals need top Oline regardless position besides  they do need tackles.. Williams hurt for two years.. Reiff signed for a year.. no very good backups, also you see more and more Oline play tackle and guard... Going from #5 to #38 is potentially a major drop at both Oline and WR... 

And if we are going by need we  already have two quality starting NFL WRs (which is more than we can say at tackle/guard) so do we really need a WR at #5 ?

Analytics will tell you that the Wins Above Replacement for an elite WR is over double that of an elite OT.  An elite WR and an average OL in the first two rounds will help the team win more games than an elite OL and an average WR.

In fact, a lot of people indirectly defended this philosophy last year when defending the team FT'ing AJ by pointing out the vast disparity between the team's W-L record when AJ was in the lineup Vs games he missed.  

Depth at WR is far worse than depth at OL.  Tate, Thomas, and Morgan have a combined 2 TD's in 10 years in the league.  That's pathetic.  All three are in contract years.  Don't even get me to the point where I start comparing the number of career starts we have on the bench between the two groups.  If you want to say Jonah is injury prone and can't be counted on, you would also have to say the same for Tate.  Not to mention that we're in 3+ WR sets 83% of the time, so who's the third starter?  I don't see one.  

Jonah and Reiff are quality starters and Trey is average (good pass blocker/bad run blocker).  I am not a Spain fan, but he has his supporters and at one point was a good starter and could potentially be so again.  I would personally like a G in 2 and a T in 3 or 4 and maybe a flyer on a guy like Dickerson who falls due to medicals.  

[PikesPeakUC]

(04-24-2021, 09:23 PM)Burma Wrote: They have earned themselves that luxury through having a solid team building approach.  The Cheifs could have easily chased Kenny Golladay or some other flashy toy for Mahomes and relied on finding these "starting offensive linemen in the 2nd and 3rd round" we keep hearing about. Instead they took the approach of rebuilding a weakness that cost them a championship instead of fortifying a strength.  

They earned that luxury having the best QB in the NFL and arguably the best coach in the NFL to put that QB in position to win. The reason they've built so well is finding value in the draft, which is what smart teams do, and when you're close, you attack the positions of weakness. 

The Bengals are not close, so I would argue that the comparison between the two is kind of apples and oranges. 

At this point, I feel like you should draft whoever is higher on your board and accumulate talent. If that's Chase or Sewell or even Pitts, so be it. I'm of the opinion that it's harder to find a true number one later on if you get lucky, but I get the Sewell argument too. At this point, I'm just ready for the draft because I think most people won't be able to really formulate a full opinion until we see what our entire draft looks like. 

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 09:23 PM)Burma Wrote: They have earned themselves that luxury through having a solid team building approach.  The Cheifs could have easily chased Kenny Golladay or some other flashy toy for Mahomes and relied on finding these "starting offensive linemen in the 2nd and 3rd round" we keep hearing about. Instead they took the approach of rebuilding a weakness that cost them a championship instead of fortifying a strength.  

The Chiefs are successful because they drafted well for years and that gives them the flexibility to be aggressive and go after guys that they feel can can make their team better, whether that's filling a gaping hole in their lineup(Brown) or fortifying a strength(Mahomes when they already had Smith).  I'll guarantee you if KC was heading into the season with Higgins, Boyd, Tate, and Thomas as their Top 4 WR's, they'd go to similar extremes.

[BURROWorBUST]

(04-24-2021, 03:19 AM)Whatever Wrote: Different situations completely.  KC was in the SB last year and won it the year before.  Orlando Brown is still very young and is already a 2x Pro Bowler.  With any draft pick, there is an element of risk, no matter how confident you are in your evaluation.  Brown is a sure thing, or as close as you can get to it.  That close to a championship and with that few holes, it makes sense.  For a team like the Bengals that needs to increase it's talent base in a number of different position groups, it doesn't make sense.  To that point, KC lost a Pro Bowl LT in Eric Fisher that they are trying to replace with a player of equal ability.  It's simply not realistic to think any rookie T, even the top guys like Sewell and Slater, will step in and play at Fisher's level as a rookie.   It should also be noted that last year Deandre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs were traded before what was considered a stacked WR draft.  It certainly didn't mean there were no good WR's left after round 1.

KC also needed a starting LT.  The Bengals don't.  The Bengals need a starting RG and/or LG.  That's going to mean the Bengals will have a lot more viable options than the Chiefs will.  Also keep in mind that Baltimore is confident enough in this draft class to find Brown's replacement, similar to the Vikings finding Diggs' replacement in Jefferson last year.  

I'm so glad we didn't need a starting LT. They do need a starting RT within the next 2 years, and they need depth at both OTs. But they don't need a starter this year. We have Williams and Rief. I think they know if they DO draft an OT in the second or later, he'll need development. Rief gives them the luxury of 1-2 years to develop the next OT. They need interior guys immediately. 

[Burma]

(04-24-2021, 11:11 PM)Whatever Wrote: The Chiefs are successful because they drafted well for years and that gives them the flexibility to be aggressive and go after guys that they feel can can make their team better, whether that's filling a gaping hole in their lineup(Brown) or fortifying a strength(Mahomes when they already had Smith).  I'll guarantee you if KC was heading into the season with Higgins, Boyd, Tate, and Thomas as their Top 4 WR's, they'd go to similar extremes.

This is where it get's interesting and goes beyond just drafting but more into team building. Yes, the Chiefs draft well, as of the 2018 (most recent info i found when looking a month or so ago), the Chiefs had the the highest percentage of drafted players still in the NFL since 2015, BUT they had the 5th fewest percentage of drafted players still on their team with 53% still on their roster (the Bengals had 5th most with 76.3%).

So they are the best in the league at finding players who can play, but are not afraid to move on from them if an upgrade is available or they don't fit what they want to do.  They are outstanding at seeing holes and fixing them.  They just do things differently and it pays.  There is no way they would have gone 6 years in a row with a huge hole at RT like the Bengals. They are aggressive, but smart, in player acquisition. Not just in the draft, but also free agency, and trades. 

Look at how they handled the pass rush situation that developed in the 2019 off season. They lost 2 of their 4 leading sackers (Dee Ford traded, Justin Huston released) due to impending agency and contract demands. They went out and signed Alex Oakafor and then traded a CB for Emmanuel Ogbah, and finally traded their 2019 1st, 3rd, and 2020 2nd for Frank Clark.  They could have simply sat on their first 2 pickups and grabbed another WR for Mahomes like N'keal Harry or Deebo Samuel (the next 2 WR that were drafted) given the issues Tyreek Hill was having, Sammy Watkins not emerging, and Dwayne Bowe underperforming. But they didn't because they knew their pass rush was still weak so they got aggressive and dealt for Frank Clark.  


They just operate at a whole different level.

[Burma]

(04-24-2021, 11:52 PM)BURROWorBUST Wrote: I'm so glad we didn't need a starting LT. They do need a starting RT within the next 2 years, and they need depth at both OTs. But they don't need a starter this year. We have Williams and Rief. I think they know if they DO draft an OT in the second or later, he'll need development. Rief gives them the luxury of 1-2 years to develop the next OT. They need interior guys immediately. 

Williams in on the roster. That's all you can really say at this point for a guy who has played in only 11 games in 2 seasons, and in 2 of those games he had to leave due to injury.

If you are anticipating having an opening at one or both OT in the next year or 2 why wouldn't you get the best OT you can now and let them compete for the job and move the loser to G? 2 birds with 1 stone.

[Essex Johnson]

(04-24-2021, 11:03 PM)Whatever Wrote: Analytics will tell you that the Wins Above Replacement for an elite WR is over double that of an elite OT.  An elite WR and an average OL in the first two rounds will help the team win more games than an elite OL and an average WR.

In fact, a lot of people indirectly defended this philosophy last year when defending the team FT'ing AJ by pointing out the vast disparity between the team's W-L record when AJ was in the lineup Vs games he missed.  

Depth at WR is far worse than depth at OL.  Tate, Thomas, and Morgan have a combined 2 TD's in 10 years in the league.  That's pathetic.  All three are in contract years.  Don't even get me to the point where I start comparing the number of career starts we have on the bench between the two groups.  If you want to say Jonah is injury prone and can't be counted on, you would also have to say the same for Tate.  Not to mention that we're in 3+ WR sets 83% of the time, so who's the third starter?  I don't see one.  

Jonah and Reiff are quality starters and Trey is average (good pass blocker/bad run blocker).  I am not a Spain fan, but he has his supporters and at one point was a good starter and could potentially be so again.  I would personally like a G in 2 and a T in 3 or 4 and maybe a flyer on a guy like Dickerson who falls due to medicals.  

And Draft history of late shows you much more mix history of WRs early in 1st round vs Oline and very good history of WRs in 2nd round... Shocking that we continue to actually defend the idea that we could still have 4/3 players from last years Oline starting on opening day if we pass on Sewell. and that includes cutting Hart who actually graded out higher than I believe everyone projected to start outside of Williams opening day.. not sure what has happen to the core pleading for massive changes to the line after Burrow was hurt... 

[Essex Johnson]

(04-24-2021, 11:58 PM)Burma Wrote: Williams in on the roster. That's all you can really say at this point for a guy who has played in only 11 games in 2 seasons, and in 2 of those games he had to leave due to injury.

If you are anticipating having an opening at one or both OT in the next year or 2 why wouldn't you get the best OT you can now and let them compete for the job and move the loser to G? 2 birds with 1 stone.

It is not rocket science for sure and it seems some forget also that a trend of late has been having moving pieces on offensive lines.. we have been seeing that in FA and in draft of late... and don;t get me going on injuries... Oline we know are much more hurt than WRs.. we already have lack of depth.. think about it, lets assume one of our guards gets hurt in preseason and/or Williams/Hopkins can;t go yet 1st game there is a good chance Price and Jordan could be starting game 1 especially if our 2nd round lineman is not ready by opening day to start.. but all is good since we have Chase to throw to... 

[Burma]

(04-25-2021, 12:09 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: It is not rocket science for sure and it seems some forget also that a trend of late has been having moving pieces on offensive lines.. we have been seeing that in FA and in draft of late... and don;t get me going on injuries... Oline we know are much more hurt than WRs.. we already have lack of depth.. think about it, lets assume one of our guards gets hurt in preseason and/or Williams/Hopkins can;t go yet 1st game  there is a good chance Price and Jordan could be starting game 1 especially if our 2nd round lineman is not ready by opening day to start.. but all is good since we have Chase to throw to... 

You put the whammy on them Essex.  No coming back from this evil conjuring.

[Whatever]

(04-25-2021, 12:01 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: And Draft history of late shows you much more mix history of WRs early in 1st round vs Oline and very good history of WRs in 2nd round... Shocking that we continue to actually defend the idea that we could still have 4/3 players from last years Oline starting on opening day if we pass on Sewell. and that includes cutting Hart who actually graded out higher than I believe everyone projected to start outside of Williams opening day.. not sure what has happen to the core pleading for massive changes to the line after Burrow was hurt... 

If we're looking at draft history, what does it tell us about LSU WR's vs Oregon OT's?

If we're looking at the recent draft history of PAC-12 T's in the 1st round, your chances of getting a decent day 1 starter from that conference in the 1st is pretty slim.  Let's take a look at the past few years, shall we?

In '20, Miami took USC T Austin Jackson, who had a 52.3 PFF grade, took 5 penalties, and allowed 4 sacks in 848 snaps as a rookie.

In '19, Philly took Andre Dillard, out of Washington St., who had a 59.7 PFF grade, took 1 penalty, and allowed 4 sacks in 337 snaps.

In '18, the Raiders took Kolton Miller out of UCLA.  He had a 49.6 PFF grade, took 8 penalties, and allowed 16(not a typo) sacks in 1008 snaps as a rookie.  

Denver took Garrett Bolles out of Utah in '17, who graded well overall at 72.9, but sucked in pass protection, allowing 8 sacks and took a massive 15 penalties.


If you look at them as individual prospects, Chase is a very safe pick based on his high level of production against elite talent at a very young age and elite athletic testing.  Sewell would also be safe due to his athletic testing for his size, but would be unlikely to come in and play well as a rookie due to simply not playing against many NFL caliber edge rushers in his college career.

There are in all likelihood going to be at least two different starters on the OL than opening day last year.  If the guys we have are so bad, it should be easy to find guys to step in and win starting jobs in 2-3, right?  

[Whatever]

(04-24-2021, 11:52 PM)Burma Wrote: This is where it get's interesting and goes beyond just drafting but more into team building. Yes, the Chiefs draft well, as of the 2018 (most recent info i found when looking a month or so ago), the Chiefs had the the highest percentage of drafted players still in the NFL since 2015, BUT they had the 5th fewest percentage of drafted players still on their team with 53% still on their roster (the Bengals had 5th most with 76.3%).

So they are the best in the league at finding players who can play, but are not afraid to move on from them if an upgrade is available or they don't fit what they want to do.  They are outstanding at seeing holes and fixing them.  They just do things differently and it pays.  There is no way they would have gone 6 years in a row with a huge hole at RT like the Bengals. They are aggressive, but smart, in player acquisition. Not just in the draft, but also free agency, and trades. 

Look at how they handled the pass rush situation that developed in the 2019 off season. They lost 2 of their 4 leading sackers (Dee Ford traded, Justin Huston released) due to impending agency and contract demands. They went out and signed Alex Oakafor and then traded a CB for Emmanuel Ogbah, and finally traded their 2019 1st, 3rd, and 2020 2nd for Frank Clark.  They could have simply sat on their first 2 pickups and grabbed another WR for Mahomes like N'keal Harry or Deebo Samuel (the next 2 WR that were drafted) given the issues Tyreek Hill was having, Sammy Watkins not emerging, and Dwayne Bowe underperforming. But they didn't because they knew their pass rush was still weak so they got aggressive and dealt for Frank Clark.  


They just operate at a whole different level.

One thing you touched on that's way different than most NFL teams operate is KC is not afraid of trading away draft picks, while most GM's cling to them.  One thing I've been screaming all off-season is that the Saints are in cap hell and both their starting T's are FA's next year, so they're practically guaranteed to lose one. Make a strong offer for Ryan Ramcyk. Maybe not before the draft if you're going Pitts or Chase so as not to show your hand, but after you turn in the card, get them on the phone and offer next year's 1st for him.  

The other thing about KC's offense is it's pretty much built around Hill and Kelce and they supplement it with the supporting cast.  And they get speed for their WR corps.  They have 3 WR's on that offense that run sub 4.4.  When you have 2 elite weapons like Hill and Kelce and surround them with guys that are not necessarily great, but can take it to the house any time you forget about them, it makes for a very dangerous offense.  They get huge chunk plays, which lessens Mahomes' exposure to the pass rush vs an offense like ours where Burrow has to get 5-6 1st downs before getting it in the end zone.  

[Burma]

(04-25-2021, 02:15 AM)Whatever Wrote: If we're looking at draft history, what does it tell us about LSU WR's vs Oregon OT's?

That's no joke with the LSU receivers.  I was looking at WR rankings in the NFL and it's a whos who of LSU guys. And they are coming from all rounds of the draft.  It is really impressive.  This article I came across makes me feel even better about trading up into the bottom of 1 for Marshall Jr. if given the chance. Jokes aside, this was a really interesting read and a good look at a guy getting glossed over. 

https://nflmocks.com/2021/03/30/2021-nfl-draft-terrace-marshall-lsu-wide-receiver/

He was the #1 wr in contested catch percentage with 82%  Incidentally Burrow, in his limited play time, had the 3rd highest aggressiveness rating for QBs. This could be a result of WR not getting seperation or by play design, i can't claim to know.  I do recall the staff really talked up Burrows touch on back shoulder throws and how hard that is to defend against and wanting to implement that more, perhaps that is related.

Quote:Aggressiveness (AGG%)
Aggressiveness tracks the amount of passing attempts a quarterback makes that are into tight coverage, where there is a defender within 1 yard or less of the receiver at the time of completion or incompletion. AGG is shown as a % of attempts into tight windows over all passing attempts.[/color]

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

[Whatever]

(04-25-2021, 02:55 AM)Burma Wrote: That's no joke with the LSU receivers.  I was looking at WR rankings in the NFL and it's a whos who of LSU guys. And they are coming from all rounds of the draft.  It is really impressive.  This article I came across makes me feel even better about trading up into the bottom of 1 for Marshall Jr. if given the chance. Jokes aside, this was a really interesting read and a good look at a guy getting glossed over. 

https://nflmocks.com/2021/03/30/2021-nfl-draft-terrace-marshall-lsu-wide-receiver/

He was the #1 wr in contested catch percentage with 82%  Incidentally Burrow, in his limited play time, had the 3rd highest aggressiveness rating for QBs. This could be a result of WR not getting seperation or by play design, i can't claim to know.  I do recall the staff really talked up Burrows touch on back shoulder throws and how hard that is to defend against and wanting to implement that more, perhaps that is related.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#aggressiveness

I like Marshall a lot.  Unfortunately, he's had medical issues crop up and he may fall due to that.  After our terrible history with stuff like that, I don't know that I'd risk a 2nd on him.  If he's still there in 4, I snap him up a heartbeat, though.

[Burma]

(04-25-2021, 03:08 AM)Whatever Wrote: I like Marshall a lot.  Unfortunately, he's had medical issues crop up and he may fall due to that.  After our terrible history with stuff like that, I don't know that I'd risk a 2nd on him.  If he's still there in 4, I snap him up a heartbeat, though.

Oh, I missed that medical combine news.  That really stinks for him. I know he had been pegged for Baltimore in the 1st for quite awhile, wondering if they or other WR needy teams will pass on him twice or even 3 times.  I couldn't find any details on the severity in my limited searching so no clue if he messed his foot or leg up again.