Rumors: Scouts Think Sewell Is Overrated

[BFritz21]

From a Falcons website called The Falcoholic, a lot of scouts see Sewell as overrated and can find many flaws in his game.

Quote:Every year since the 1980s, Bob McGinn has polled NFL scouts, general managers, and evaluators heading into the NFL draft about the draft class and top prospects. Before moving to purely anonymous names, even former Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff showed up from time to time.

McGinn polls the evaluators about who they like the most, who they hate, and generally give lonely scouts an outlet to complain about players or the NFL in general. The evaluations are fun to look at, both before and after the draft, as the accuracy of those rankings don’t always play out.

However, they are the most interesting and comprehensive look into what some of these evaluators think about specific players, positions, and the NFL.

With the Falcons still publicly undecided on the fourth overall pick, the draft’s top offensive lineman has been occasionally connected to Atlanta. After all, look at what the Titans did to help Arthur Smith put together a dominant offense. They drafted offensive linemen high and often. Why not add the top tackle in the draft who should help the offense for the next decade?

“I put the tape on expecting to see Jonathan Ogden or Joe Thomas or Walter Jones or Orlando Pace, and I didn’t see it,” one longtime scout said. “But he’s going high because there’s nobody else.”
Another scout said Sewell projects to be a good player but not a “generational” talent. The term generational seems to be thrown around a lot but Kyle Pitts is expected to be a generational talent, however, tight ends have never been drafted as early as the Falcons’ pick. If Sewell goes as high as 4, you would hope he becomes a great player, if not borderline generational.

“You’d be really happy with having Sewell,” the executive said after completing the exercise. “He will trend toward being a Pro Bowl-level player if not competing to be one of the best tackles in the league and if not the best just off those comparisons.”
Evaluators believe Sewell is still raw but has plenty of room to grow. He is still only 20. Perhaps with a few years of development and increased strength, Sewell could be among the best tackles in the league.

The scouts, as they do with all prospects, poked some holes in Sewell’s game. Some questions about what film he put together in the 2019 season and if he would be able to start at tackle immediately.

That may be problematic for a fourth overall pick. There has been a surprising lack of smoke around Sewell and the Falcons. Atlanta has a big decision to make with their first pick, kicking off the path for the new regime. There are options, likely potential franchise quarterbacks, an elite tight end, some talented wide receivers, or even a trade down to load up on picks.

Whether or not Sewell is worth the risk may depend on which of these scouts are employed by Atlanta.

He is only 20, so he has room to grow, and Pollack's a good coach, so that plays in our favor, but do we really want to chance that with our first round pick to protect our franchise quarterback for the next ten years?

Could he find the motivation here?

With our luck and first round busts, I don't like picking a guy that hasn't played in a year and that experts who are payed a lot of money to make these decisions are having doubts about him.

I'm completely sold on Chase now or trading down for more picks and taking Smith.

This definitely has me worried now that we'll make the wrong choice and pick him.

[Weazzel80]

He doesn't have elite measurables; his arms are actually shorter than Jonah Williams and I always thought that was Jonah's biggest weakness.

And he didn't play against top competition, from my understanding his worst game was against Auburn when he actually played an SEC school.

Those are two huge red flags when you're talking about him potentially being the first non-QB off the board.

[Au165]

I was early in the draft area saying I think the myth of Penei Sewell had overtaken the player. He has become this Paul Bunyan-type personality that I just don't see on tape. I think he is a good player, but I don't see this sure-fire hall of fame player some people are talking about. I see a guy who looks physically underdeveloped still who I question if he will be able to anchor against NFL caliber power rushers.

Again, can he be a good player? Sure. Is he bust-proof? No, he has some issues that could be a problem. Overrated is relative though, if you say he is only going to be a good player instead of what some have said (Generational) then that would mean he is overrated but it doesn't mean he is a bust. If I had to bet money I'd say 10+ year starter but not the perennial All-Pro some have projected.

[Burma]

Total bullshit article. Even moronic Florio at PFT is calling it out as such.

Anonymous scouts make one last run at sparking a Penei Sewell slide
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/25/anonymous-scouts-make-one-last-run-at-sparking-a-penei-sewell-slide/

Quote:Few doubt that Oregon tackle Penei Sewell will be the first tackle taken in the draft. Most believe he won’t make it past the Bengals at No. 5.

That, of course, won’t stop the anonymous scouts from trying to make it happen.

Yes, only a few days remain for the anonymous scouts to do their work. Nameless, faceless fonts of opinion that, in the context of the NFL draft, are skewed by ulterior motives. This doesn’t stop media members from trafficking in these anonymous opinions, even though it gives the audience no way of knowing whether they’re coming from an anonymous scout whose team would love to see one or two or more teams pass on the player, so that the anonymous scout’s team can draft him.

Tonight’s example is Sewell. Bob McGinn, who has given voice to the agendas of anonymous scouts for years, has a collection of quotes from unnamed scouts, one or more of whom possibly aren’t giving a full and fair assessment of Sewell, for strategic reasons

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 08:30 AM)Burma Wrote: Total bullshit article.  Even moronic Florio at PFT is calling it out as such.

Anonymous scouts make one last run at sparking a Penei Sewell slide
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/25/anonymous-scouts-make-one-last-run-at-sparking-a-penei-sewell-slide/

Nah, it's come from a lot of places and it has been out there for well over a month (maybe two). 

[*Synric*]

It's not such a hot take... Some of Penei Sewells tape reminds me of 2017 William Jackson III. In 2017 there were times when WJ3 was beat initially and was able to recover with speed and make a play but he still got beat and had things to work on which we seen in 2018. Penei Sewell's tape was the same at times against guys like Marlon Davidson, Derrick Brown, and Bradlee Anae. Sewell was beat at times but had the strength and athleticism to recover but will he be able to do that as often in the Pros?

Sewell isn't the only one Rashawn Slater had issues no one is mentioning either. Everyone talks about how he shut down Chase Young (so did Michigan's Jon Runyan Jr btw) but Slater also had issues with his lack of power and length against Iowa's AJ Espensa and Wisconsin's Zack Baun.

[lone bengal]

Tobins the professional I’ll leave it up to him to make the right choice and then I’ll criticize him if he makes the wrong pick lol.

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 08:33 AM)Au165 Wrote: Nah, it's come from a lot of places and it has been out there for well over a month (maybe two). 

Guess those anonymous scouts have been getting around.  Probably mixing it up with those anonymous sources we're always hearing about. 

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 09:35 AM)Burma Wrote: Guess those anonymous scouts have been getting around.  Probably mixing it up with those anonymous sources we're always hearing about. 

This is always interesting because of the idea that "anonymous" somehow means not true. Sure, some could be made up but on the other hand, when guys who have been reporting for 30 years use a source you tend to believe the source is pretty good and definitely real because otherwise, you don't stay in the game that long. No one can put their name on it because if they are employed by a team they literally lose their job, so the only time you can get an idea on guys pre-draft from a team's perspective is anonymous. A couple of guys I follow who have been tied to the scouting community for years, along with a scout I am acquaintances with, have all said some teams in this draft do not like Sewell as much as the media and fans do.

With 32 different teams and each team having 6-15 scouts, it is not crazy to be able to find plenty of varying opinions on players. I actually know there is one team who wouldn't take Lawrence as the 1st QB off the board. There are very few consensus picks good or bad in the draft, it's why it's such a crap shoot.

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 09:48 AM)Au165 Wrote: This is always interesting because of the idea that "anonymous" somehow means not true. Sure, some could be made up but on the other hand, when guys who have been reporting for 30 years use a source you tend to believe the source is pretty good and definitely real because otherwise, you don't stay in the game that long. No one can put their name on it because if they are employed by a team they literally lose their job, so the only time you can get an idea on guys pre-draft from a team's perspective is anonymous. A couple of guys I follow who have been tied to the scouting community for years, along with a scout I am acquaintances with, have all said some teams in this draft do not like Sewell as much as the media and fans do.

With 32 different teams and each team having 6-15 scouts, it is not crazy to be able to find plenty of varying opinions on players. I actually know there is one team who wouldn't take Lawrence as the 1st QB off the board. There are very few consensus picks good or bad in the draft, it's why it's such a crap shoot.

This kind of leads me back to a subject that was touched on awhile ago, team draft boards.  I wish there was access to the public, after the draft, to team draft boards and that player scouting service the NFL provides to the teams.  That would be very interesting to me.  Just to see who was really blowing smoke and the games going on behind the scenes.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 09:52 AM)Burma Wrote: This kind of leads me back to a subject that was touched on awhile ago, team draft boards.  I wish there was access to the public, after the draft, to team draft boards and that player scouting service the NFl provides to the teams.  That would be very interesting to me.  Just to see who was really blowing smoke and the games going on behind the scenes.

Those are usually kept pretty secret because teams don't even like to share how they ranked guys for future potential FA/trade opportunities. I know the Cowboys board leaked a couple of years back and it was definitely interesting to see how they stacked things. We do get some ideas of it after the draft as often various media members will be embedded and they will be allowed to share tidbits that shed light on things. 

I think, for the most part, the idea of the smokescreen is so well known that it's almost a smokescreen more so to not say anything about a player than it is to try and put out bad info. A lot of that stuff worked better in the pre-social media era and I think teams have caught on a lot better. 

[CJD]

Our choice at #5 comes down to two players that did not play in 2020, both of whom fill a very big need on our team and would improve the offense drastically.

I know that I've been arguing the Sewell direction for the last few months but if we go Chase, I won't be upset. I'd be nervous about a good player dropping to #38, but I wouldn't be concerned about Chase joining this team.

I do think Sewell has transcended his own value in some circles, however. Slater, for months, was labeled "undersized" almost exclusively because of his arm length. The idea of taking Slater at #5 was scoffed at and Sewell was considered this can't miss OT that we haven't seen in a decade or more.

Then they measured his arms, which showed he was not a flawless prospect but, instead of reconciling this, a lot of people doubled down saying he was so good, he could overcome his arm length just like Joe Thomas.

That was when I knew the hype train had gone off the rails. The thing that prevented some people from grading Slater at the same level as Sewell (his arm length) was now a con for both players, yet Sewell still remained the consensus top pick and excuses were being made for him that never would have been made for Slater.

With all that said, I would still likely take Sewell at 5 if given the chance because historical draft data indicates it's better to draft OTs early and WRs later, as well as some historical data on the success of teams selecting WRs in the top 5 (I remember seeing a statistic that no team that has taken a WR in the top 5 has had significant success when that player was on the roster) and there are far more elite WRs from the middle rounds than there are good OTs from the middle rounds but I am not under the delusion that Sewell is a generational talent.

[BFritz21]

(04-26-2021, 08:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: I was early in the draft area saying I think the myth of Penei Sewell had overtaken the player. He has become this Paul Bunyan-type personality that I just don't see on tape. I think he is a good player, but I don't see this sure-fire hall of fame player some people are talking about. I see a guy who looks physically underdeveloped still who I question if he will be able to anchor against NFL caliber power rushers.

Again, can he be a good player? Sure. Is he bust-proof? No, he has some issues that could be a problem. Overrated is relative though, if you say he is only going to be a good player instead of what some have said (Generational) then that would mean he is overrated but it doesn't mean he is a bust. If I had to bet money I'd say 10+ year starter but not the perennial All-Pro some have projected.

He's only 20, so he still can develop, both physically and talent-wise, but do we really want to bank on our franchise quarterback's health with that?  Do we really want to waste our first-round pick on him when we can take a generational player like Chase or Smith?

What's the drop-off to a tackle we can take in the 2nd?  is it worth passing on Chase, Smith, or anyone else?

We can get a generational talent, so I don't think we should settle for Sewell, especially when high schools have better weight rooms and training facilities than we do.

(04-26-2021, 09:05 AM)Synric Wrote: It's not such a hot take... Some of Penei Sewells tape reminds me of 2017 William Jackson III. In 2017 there were times when WJ3 was beat initially and was able to recover with speed and make a play but he still got beat and had things to work on which we seen in 2018. Penei Sewell's tape was the same at times against guys like Marlon Davidson, Derrick Brown, and Bradlee Anae. Sewell was beat at times but had the strength and athleticism to recover but will he be able to do that as often in the Pros?

Sewell isn't the only one Rashawn Slater had issues no one is mentioning either. Everyone talks about how he shut down Chase Young (so did Michigan's Jon Runyan Jr btw) but Slater also had issues with his lack of power and length against Iowa's AJ Espensa and Wisconsin's Zack Baun.

Sewell's short arms make it difficult for him to recover because a pass rusher is by him quick if he can't get his hands on him, and a defensive back also has more time to recover.

I don't like having to use terms like him being "able to recover" when protecting our franchise quarterback because it's not like with WJIII where getting beat could cost us a touchdown or even a game, Sewell getting beat could get Burrow hurt and cost us a season.

[Burma]

(04-26-2021, 09:55 AM)Au165 Wrote: Those are usually kept pretty secret because teams don't even like to share how they ranked guys for future potential FA/trade opportunities. I know the Cowboys board leaked a couple of years back and it was definitely interesting to see how they stacked things. We do get some ideas of it after the draft as often various media members will be embedded and they will be allowed to share tidbits that shed light on things. 

I think, for the most part, the idea of the smokescreen is so well known that it's almost a smokescreen more so to not say anything about a player than it is to try and put out bad info. A lot of that stuff worked better in the pre-social media era and I think teams have caught on a lot better. 

So who has the scout you're acquaintances with said is the top of the 2nd tier OTs, if they have even mentioned that. If the draft goes as expected with Chase being the pick in the 1st, I would hope the Bengals are aggressive in getting the best of the 2nd tier guys and not waiting to see who drops.  I said "hope" because I don't think they will be aggresive, but regardless, is the scouts thinking Cosi, Eichenberg, or someone else?

[XenoMorph]

(04-26-2021, 04:56 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: From a Falcons website called The Falcoholic, a lot of scouts see Sewell as overrated and can find many flaws in his game.  


He is only 20, so he has room to grow, and Pollack's a good coach, so that plays in our favor, but do we really want to chance that with our first round pick to protect our franchise quarterback for the next ten years?  

Could he find the motivation here?

With our luck and first round busts, I don't like picking a guy that hasn't played in a year and that experts who are payed a lot of money to make these decisions are having doubts about him.  

I'm completely sold on Chase now or trading down for more picks and taking Smith.  

This definitely has me worried now that we'll make the wrong choice and pick him.

1st rounders when your picking top 10 have to step on the field and be a starter day 1 or you failed with the pick imo.

Sewell might turn out to be Great but he was listed as raw and took last year off.. so who knows.

[BFritz21]

(04-26-2021, 10:06 AM)XenoMorph Wrote: 1st rounders when your picking top 10 have to step on the field and be a starter day 1 or you failed with the pick imo.

Sewell might turn out to be Great but he was listed as raw and took last year off.. so who knows.

That's what I'm saying, and it's not like "oh, he can start and just develop," or even rotate in, because we need him to protect the franchise in Burrow.

I don't want "raw" and "developing" because those picks never seem to work out for us.

We can take ROY candidates in Chase, Smith, or even Pitts, or we could take Sewell and hope that he doesn't let our franchise quarterback end up more crippled than I am.

[Fullrock]

(04-26-2021, 04:56 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: From a Falcons website called The Falcoholic, a lot of scouts see Sewell as overrated and can find many flaws in his game.  


He is only 20, so he has room to grow, and Pollack's a good coach, so that plays in our favor, but do we really want to chance that with our first round pick to protect our franchise quarterback for the next ten years?  

Could he find the motivation here?

With our luck and first round busts, I don't like picking a guy that hasn't played in a year and that experts who are payed a lot of money to make these decisions are having doubts about him.  

I'm completely sold on Chase now or trading down for more picks and taking Smith.  

This definitely has me worried now that we'll make the wrong choice and pick him.

You do realize Chase hasn't played in a year too, right?

[QueenCity]

Just give me Chase and then trade your 2nd rounder to move back into the 1st round. Bengals make that move and the fanbase will scream for joy.

[Au165]

(04-26-2021, 10:04 AM)Burma Wrote: So who has the scout you're acquaintances with said is the top of the 2nd tier OTs, if they have even mentioned that. If the draft goes as expected with Chase being the pick in the 1st, I would hope the Bengals are aggressive in getting the best of the 2nd tier guys and not waiting to see who drops.  I said "hope" because I don't think they will be aggresive, but regardless, is the scouts thinking Cosi, Eichenberg, or someone else?

Haven't talked to him in a while but he wasn't as high on the group as many in the media. He thought Slater/Sewell were probably not as good as how they have been projected (he liked a couple of guys last year better) then a drop to four guys that he said are all the same level in his mind, most likely 10-year starters in the league of various talent and production. He like Jenkins/ Derrishaw/Eichenburg/ Cosmi in that order from what I remember.

[XenoMorph]

(04-26-2021, 10:28 AM)QueenCity Wrote: Just give me Chase and then trade your 2nd rounder to move back into the 1st round.  Bengals make that move and the fanbase will scream for joy.

moving back up is expensive depending how far up you want to go and teams love those 5th year options now