Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
The tight end is more about dictating personnel than it is about just raw receiving numbers.
You put a guy like Pitts in the game, the defense HAS to change what they are doing defensively. There's no way they can cover him with a linebacker and he's an immediate mismatch for a safety or corner size wise. He's guy that will take 2 guys to cover in the middle of the field, which should open up the deep routes. If they don't cheat to cover Pitts, the middle the field will be open all day. He could do the same thing that Eifert did for this offense when he was healthy.
To me, Pitts is the best player in the draft followed by Lawrence, Sewell and Chase. I also think he has the biggest impact if he is used correctly. I also think he has the least downside as I also feel like he's the best WR in the draft. We won't take him, but he would really take this offense to another dimension.
Posts: 17,288
Threads: 239
Reputation:
136964
Joined: Oct 2015
(04-28-2021, 10:37 AM)Bengalitis Wrote: TEs are all about the endzone TDs, the 1st downs and the blocking when needed. They should not have, in general, more yardage than a WR. If they do, your WRs are underutilized or the QB lacks the distance/accuracy to make them successful.
Tell that to all these people pimping him as "an elite WR in a TE's body" and the like. Can't have it both ways of promoting his WR ability but not holding him to WR expectations.
Also, over the last 5 years there have been 12 WR seasons with 12+ TDs and only 1 TE season of such. So even for TDs, if you want the most, it's still WRs.
(04-28-2021, 10:48 AM)Au165 Wrote: This is miss framing things a bit. You say Jefferson "as a rookie" but fail to note that his rookie production was also a record and not just any rookie production, it was also good for 3rd highest for all receivers last year. You also fail to mention that Kelce's production was 2nd in total yards and 1st in yards per reception of any receiver with 100 catches or more, plus tied for 5th in TD's. By any metric last year, Travis Kelce was one of the best receiving options in the league.
Again, I am all about Chase but this weird attempt to discredit a TE's impact in the game right now is a weird hill to die on. Kansas City's offense is actually built around Kelce not Hill like a lot of people like to believe.
Travis Kelce is also playing with the best QB in the league with probably the 2nd best offensive mind in the league. He never reached 1,200 yards until Mahomes.
Is he a huge impact player? Sure. Would he be on the Bengals or almost any other team? SIGNIFICANTLY less so.
Also all this talk about Kelce is just comparing Pitts to THE pinnacle of hopes of what a TE has ever been. Note that nobody is comparing Chase to peak Julio Jones (1,871 yards), peak Antonio Brown (1,834 yards), or peak Calvin Johnson (1,964 yards). That's because Chase doesn't need to be the greatest of all time in order to be a consistent top-5 type receiver. Pitts does.
____________________________________________________________
Posts: 935
Threads: 13
Reputation:
4601
Joined: Sep 2018
For what it is worth, my friend is a run game coordinator at a team I won't name. He was also the raiders TE coach last year and also has been an oline coach in the past. I asked his thoughts and he said the Bengals should take Pitts and that he and burrow would wreak havoc. Just fwiw. I'm under the impression he'll be gone at 4. He is also heavily involved in the draft process. I remember asking him about sample after that draft and he had a second round grade on him as well.
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:09 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Travis Kelce is also playing with the best QB in the league with probably the 2nd best offensive mind in the league. He never reached 1,200 yards until Mahomes.
Is he a huge impact player? Sure. Would he be on the Bengals or almost any other team? SIGNIFICANTLY less so.
Also all this talk about Kelce is just comparing Pitts to THE pinnacle of hopes of what a TE has ever been. Note that nobody is comparing Chase to peak Julio Jones (1,871 yards), peak Antonio Brown (1,834 yards), or peak Calvin Johnson (1,964 yards). That's because Chase doesn't need to be the greatest of all time in order to be a consistent top-5 type receiver. Pitts does.
A little bit of a scheme change but also his targets increased, it was more of a usage thing as his yards per target had actually been higher at other points in his career. Would he be as good on another team? Maybe. If we are judging it by his yards per target rather than a volume stat of total yards I think he would be.
Most people compare him to Waller, and that is a really fair comp of a guy on maybe a limited offense producing really well. I think most people would take Darren Waller in the top 5 of a draft if you knew you could get that production (minus the personal issues).
Posts: 51
Threads: 0
Reputation:
277
Joined: Oct 2020
(04-28-2021, 09:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: If you take Pitts, you don't use him primarily as a blocking TE anyway. You use him essentially as a receiver who blocks occasionally.
Put him out wide, put him in the slot, or put him inline.
Maybe I'm crazy, but I think Pitts is a perennial 1000+ yard guy if used properly.
I think the people who don't want him see him as a 700 yard guy.
You're right. I think if its him vs chase I feel chase will be more productive.
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
This is another one of those really weird, ice cream vs ice cream debates. If we end up with either we are still walking away with an amazing talent and one that has the chance to be one of the best at their position.
Posts: 857
Threads: 23
Reputation:
3878
Joined: Aug 2019
Pitts would be the most exciting draft move by far but I think he goes 4th.
Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:34 AM)Au165 Wrote: This is another one of those really weird, ice cream vs ice cream debates. If we end up with either we are still walking away with an amazing talent and one that has the chance to be one of the best at their position.
I think we'll get a true stud, but I don't see the same upside with Chase as I do with Sewell or Pitts. But only time will tell,
Posts: 17,288
Threads: 239
Reputation:
136964
Joined: Oct 2015
(04-28-2021, 10:57 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: WR's have the shortest average career length of all positions in the NFL. RB's are next.
So it is true, Tight Ends have, on average, longer careers than WR's. Also, I wasn't just talking about career length but level of play at an advanced age. Kelce just put up career highs in every single category at the age of 31. You don't find too many WR's that can claim the same.
My point, I think still stands, if Kyle Pitts slows down a bit (from 4.44) the chances are he's still more than serviceable at his position. He's so far ahead speedwise at his position that even slowing down leaves with decent measurables in comparison. He's still 6'6. If Jamar Chase slows down he's in a sea of 6'1 receivers who run over a 4.4. I think that's a little different.
Only according to the numbers that the NFL put out a few years ago that I think you're referring to, which includes all the PS and ST chaff.
But we aren't talking about PS guys and STs, so those numbers are useless. Of course there's more rotation at the bottom of the roster for WRs than TEs, because you carry more, and you draft more (the 2020 draft had 35 WRs, 12 TEs). They also tend to be your returners and gunners on ST.
Over the last 11 drafts (since 2010) the Bengals have taken 7 WRs and 1 TE in the 6th and 7th rounds
You were talking the greats. You even made a list of some of the best TEs to play with ages. So there's no point in adding Quan Cosbys into the equation.
- - - - - -
Lets be honest, the 4.44 is total BS. There's more people running in the 4.3s this offseason than there seemingly has ever been. Pro Day 40s have always been white noise at best, and it's more so this season. Pitts is 100% a fast dude, and freakishly fast for his size, no doubt. I just have no tolerance for 40 times that aren't combine times, and even those don't really fully translate to playing speed.
Also, you are forgetting something important. Once Pitts slows down he can be covered by a LB. Once Chase slows down he still has to be covered by a CB. That completely removes the defensive personnel imbalance that a fast TE creates in the first place.
(04-28-2021, 11:17 AM)Au165 Wrote: A little bit of a scheme change but also his targets increased, it was more of a usage thing as his yards per target had actually been higher at other points in his career. Would he be as good on another team? Maybe. If we are judging it by his yards per target rather than a volume stat of total yards I think he would be.
Most people compare him to Waller, and that is a really fair comp of a guy on maybe a limited offense producing really well. I think most people would take Darren Waller in the top 5 of a draft if you knew you could get that production (minus the personal issues).
Keep in mind that it took both Waller and Kelce 4 years each to get a 1,000+ yard season. A WR having 1,000+ yards as a rookie isn't unusual at all.
____________________________________________________________
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:37 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Keep in mind that it took both Waller and Kelce 4 years each to get a 1,000+ yard season. A WR having 1,000+ yards as a rookie isn't unusual at all.
Waller was on drugs and was wasting away in Baltimore for two years before coming to Oakland and getting clean, so it's not really a fair comparison there. As for Kelce, his 2nd year 9.9 per target was the best of his entire career and again goes back to being more about opportunity rather than skill. If you take a guy like Pitts high, he is getting 100-120 targets in year 1.
Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:37 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Only according to the numbers that the NFL put out a few years ago that I think you're referring to, which includes all the PS and ST chaff.
But we aren't talking about PS guys and STs, so those numbers are useless. Of course there's more rotation at the bottom of the roster for WRs than TEs, because you carry more, and you draft more (the 2020 draft had 35 WRs, 12 TEs). They also tend to be your returners and gunners on ST.
Over the last 11 drafts (since 2010) the Bengals have taken 7 WRs and 1 TE in the 6th and 7th rounds
You were talking the greats. You even made a list of some of the best TEs to play with ages. So there's no point in adding Quan Cosbys into the equation.
- - - - - -
Lets be honest, the 4.44 is total BS. There's more people running in the 4.3s this offseason than there seemingly has ever been. Pro Day 40s have always been white noise at best, and it's more so this season. Pitts is 100% a fast dude, and freakishly fast for his size, no doubt. I just have no tolerance for 40 times that aren't combine times, and even those don't really fully translate to playing speed.
Also, you are forgetting something important. Once Pitts slows down he can be covered by a LB. Once Chase slows down he still has to be covered by a CB. That completely removes the defensive personnel imbalance that a fast TE creates in the first place.
Keep in mind that it took both Waller and Kelce 4 years each to get a 1,000+ yard season. A WR having 1,000+ yards as a rookie isn't unusual at all.
If Pitts could have the impact Eifert had as a rookie, he would be worth the pick.
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:46 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: If Pitts could have the impact Eifert had as a rookie, he would be worth the pick.
Not sure I agree exactly, but it is an interesting point if you consider Red Zone efficiency. We were 30th in the league in Red Zone efficiency and that addition definitely would improve that you'd think which could have a massive impact in the win column.
Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:49 AM)Au165 Wrote: Not sure I agree exactly, but it is an interesting point if you consider Red Zone efficiency. We were 30th in the league in Red Zone efficiency and that addition definitely would improve that you'd think which could have a massive impact in the win column.
I just look at the impact it would have on Boyd and Higgins. Defenses couldn't cheat and cover the outside WRs. We haven't had a guy like that in some time. Uzomah and Sample aren't guys that demand any extra attention from the defense.
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:51 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I just look at the impact it would have on Boyd and Higgins. Defenses couldn't cheat and cover the outside WRs. We haven't had a guy like that in some time. Uzomah and Sample aren't guys that demand any extra attention from the defense.
I often come back to, Uzomah may have become that guy last year. His target share before he got hurt was pretty insane and I wonder if Burrow would really like using a TE.
Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 11:53 AM)Au165 Wrote: I often come back to, Uzomah may have become that guy last year. His target share before he got hurt was pretty insane and I wonder if Burrow would really like using a TE.
That's my go-to response when people say that Zac doesn't use a TE. I remember Uzomah making some nice plays before going down. I think Burrow is at his best over the middle of the field. Honestly, I can't see why Pitts isn't more of a discussion for the Bengals. The whole LSU connection is way over played.
Posts: 13,608
Threads: 133
Reputation:
91140
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 10:59 AM)Hammerstripes Wrote: The tight end is more about dictating personnel than it is about just raw receiving numbers.
You put a guy like Pitts in the game, the defense HAS to change what they are doing defensively. There's no way they can cover him with a linebacker and he's an immediate mismatch for a safety or corner size wise. He's guy that will take 2 guys to cover in the middle of the field, which should open up the deep routes. If they don't cheat to cover Pitts, the middle the field will be open all day. He could do the same thing that Eifert did for this offense when he was healthy.
To me, Pitts is the best player in the draft followed by Lawrence, Sewell and Chase. I also think he has the biggest impact if he is used correctly. I also think he has the least downside as I also feel like he's the best WR in the draft. We won't take him, but he would really take this offense to another dimension.
Recently I've seen Pitts labeled as an "OW" Offensive Weapon. He can line up in every receiving position on the field and can be moved pre snap. Some people are labeling him a TE and trying to compare position stats and that is just the wrong way to look at a prospect like Kyle Pitts. You cannot google your answer.
The possibilities with a player like Pitts in your lineup are endless and will dictate how the rest of the Divison builds their Defense. This cannot be understated.
Posts: 11,627
Threads: 131
Reputation:
59367
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 12:01 PM)Synric Wrote: The possibilities with a player like Pitts in your lineup are endless and will dictate how the rest of the Divison builds their Defense. This cannot be understated.
Also a really interesting point. Outside of Bush/Fitzpatrick in Pittsburgh, no one really has the personnel to match up well with a dynamic TE currently inside the division. Some may point to Queen in BAL but he really hasn't shown great coverage ability yet and they lack the backend safety option to give them flexibility. Cleveland did just get Johnson who has the potential to at safety but lacks the LB option to run with Pitts.
Posts: 13,608
Threads: 133
Reputation:
91140
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 12:04 PM)Au165 Wrote: Also a really interesting point. Outside of Bush/Fitzpatrick in Pittsburgh, no one really has the personnel to match up well with a dynamic TE currently inside the division. Some may point to Queen in BAL but he really hasn't shown great coverage ability yet and they lack the backend safety option to give them flexibility. Cleveland did just get Johnson who has the potential to at safety but lacks the LB option to run with Pitts.
Which ever team takes Pitts I'd almost bet someone in their Divison will end up with Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Hamash Naririldeen, or Divine Deablo. Possibly making a run at guys like Kyzir White from the Chargers in 2022.
Posts: 3,665
Threads: 42
Reputation:
14949
Joined: May 2015
(04-28-2021, 12:04 PM)Au165 Wrote: Also a really interesting point. Outside of Bush/Fitzpatrick in Pittsburgh, no one really has the personnel to match up well with a dynamic TE currently inside the division. Some may point to Queen in BAL but he really hasn't shown great coverage ability yet and they lack the backend safety option to give them flexibility. Cleveland did just get Johnson who has the potential to at safety but lacks the LB option to run with Pitts.
At 5'11, Bush has zero chance of matching up with him. Minkah very well would be the best option in the division.
I just really love the idea of Pitts. And don't kid yourself, he could play outside at WR as well. None of the SEC CBs like Horn, Surtain etc. could cover him either. He runs routes like a WR>
Posts: 4,542
Threads: 204
Reputation:
43688
Joined: May 2015
Fwiw: Pitts is faster than the times posted by AJ Green, Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins at their combines/Pro Day's.
And even if you don't completely think the Pro Day time was accurate, he is ahead by a wide enough margin that even accounting for error this still holds true. (Unless you think the Pro Day time was at least .05 off.
Here's some other random receivers I just pulled up that produced slower times:
-Davante Adams
-Dez Bryant
-Kennan Allen
-Juju Smith-Schuster
-Adam Thielen
-Jarvis Landry
Comparable speed comparison to Pitts include: Amari Cooper (4.42) and Calvin Ridley (4.44), both of who are only 6'1.
|