Do You Realize How Long It Has Been?

[Benton]

(05-05-2021, 12:17 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Sure, but the question wasn't "could he have made a significant impact if he had a better supporting cast?" it was "did he make a significant impact?".

It's not fun to admit, but objectively he didn't. It's not faulting him. I think he'll be much better in 2021.

Fully agree. Just saying I don't fault him for it.

Burrow was an above average qb with average receivers, a garbage line and something at rb. Dude wasn't lightning in a bottle, but nobody would have been behind that ol.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-05-2021, 12:31 AM)Benton Wrote: Fully agree. Just saying I don't fault him for it.

Burrow was an above average qb with average receivers, a garbage line and something at rb. Dude wasn't lightning in a bottle, but nobody would have been behind that ol.

(Okay, NOW I just moved from being serious to intentionally causing trouble. Lol)

[CoachGeorge]

(05-04-2021, 05:02 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Not sure I'd be posting a thread about first round pick injuries in a season the Bengals travel to Detroit, where the worst first round injury ever for the team happened in Ki-Jana Carter.

Actually, it all goes back to our inaugural season back in ‘69. Greg Cook tore his rotator cuff. This went undiagnosed (another curse of this snake bit franchise) for a couple of years and the shoulder deteriorated from there.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(05-04-2021, 05:02 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Not sure I'd be posting a thread about first round pick injuries in a season the Bengals travel to Detroit, where the worst first round injury ever for the team happened in Ki-Jana Carter.

Pretty sure that's also where Kenny Irons' career ended before he even managed a real carry.

[*SHRacerX*]

(05-04-2021, 12:45 PM)Fullrock Wrote: No, not since the last playoff win...we are all well aware of that.

Do you realize how long it has been since the Bengals first round draft pick has had a significant impact in their rookie season while also staying healthy?

2020 Joe Burrow: Significant impact? Yes. Stayed healthy? No
2019 Jonah Williams: Significant impact? No. Stayed Healthy? No (missed entire season)
2018 Billy Price: Significant impact? No. Stayed Healthy? No
2017 John Ross: Significant impact? No. Stayed healthy? No (played 1 game)
2016 William Jackson: Significant impact? No. Stayed healthy? No (missed entire season)
2015 Cedric Ogbuehi: Significant impact? No. Stayed healthy? No (was still recovering from torn ACL)
2014 Darqueze Dennard: Significant impact? No. Stayed healthy? Yes
2013 Tyler Eifert: Significant impact? No. Stayed healthy? Ironically yes

You have to go back to 2012 to find a first round pick who had a significant impact his rookie season while also staying healthy. That player was Kevin Zeitler who started all 16 games in 2012.

Sure would be nice to break that horrible streak this year.

On this depressing note, I have to make it even more depressing:  I don't think Dennard was healthy his rookie year, either.

This is a startling run of failures.  I have high hopes for Chase, because he wants to win and he doesn't hope it happens, but he is the kind of player that will make it happen.  He won't have the rookie fatigue, since he opted out, and he kept himself in great condition.  

The odds, it would appear, are in our favor for a massive reversal of fortune when it comes to this horrible statistical run.  

[Bengalbug]

(05-04-2021, 05:02 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: Not sure I'd be posting a thread about first round pick injuries in a season the Bengals travel to Detroit, where the worst first round injury ever for the team happened in Ki-Jana Carter.

Didn’t the same thing happen to Kenny irons? Pre season injury in Detroit?

Edit- “ During the second quarter of the Bengals first preseason game against the Detroit Lions on August 9, Irons tore his ACL on his fourth carry of the game, ending his rookie season. Irons was expected to recover fully and be ready for spring workouts.[2] After the conclusion of the 2007 regular season, Irons said he expected to be ready for training camp in July 2008.[3] However, on July 25, Irons was waived/injured by the Bengals and subsequently placed the reserve/physically-unable-to-perform list. He was waived from the PUP list on August 4.”

[CJD]

(05-04-2021, 09:19 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: It's not a condemnation of Burrow as I believe he has tons of promise and potential, and at the risk of being lynched....

Did he?

Burrow was 2-7-1 as a starter and 3% below average as a QB. If you take away the name, the draft position, the promise and potential and just look at it from a purely statistical standpoint, I don't think he did.

It depends on what you consider a significant impact.

Burrow had an objectively good stat line for a rookie with a 65.3% completion percentage and 5 300 yard games in just 9 full games.

He didn't make too many mistakes with only 5 interceptions, 1 of which wasn't a pass but rather a janky little toss in his first career game.

He didn't rack up a ton of passing TDs, but he did have plenty of game tying/winning drives late in games that the defense and/or kicker promptly ****** up (See San Diego, Philadelphia and Cleveland just off the top of my head). He also had 3 rushing TDs and, in the Indianapolis game, he got the ball down to within the 10 yard line 3 times in the first 2 quarters, only for the TDs to be scored on the ground rather than through the air (which, incidentally, is why I don't really consider number of passing TDs to be all that relevant to a QB's success. Points scored is much more relevant).

In the 9.5 games he played, we scored 22.4 points per game, and in the remaining 6.5 games he didn't play, we scored 15.1 points per game.

So if your gauge for success is wins, he was not a significant impact, but if your gauge is anything else, I think you can pretty objectively say yes he was a significant impact.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-05-2021, 12:00 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: It depends on what you consider a significant impact.

Burrow had an objectively good stat line for a rookie with a 65.3% completion percentage and 5 300 yard games in just 9 full games.

He didn't make too many mistakes with only 5 interceptions, 1 of which wasn't a pass but rather a janky little toss in his first career game.

He didn't rack up a ton of passing TDs, but he did have plenty of game tying/winning drives late in games that the defense and/or kicker promptly ****** up (See San Diego, Philadelphia and Cleveland just off the top of my head). He also had 3 rushing TDs and, in the Indianapolis game, he got the ball down to within the 10 yard line 3 times in the first 2 quarters, only for the TDs to be scored on the ground rather than through the air (which, incidentally, is why I don't really consider number of passing TDs to be all that relevant to a QB's success. Points scored is much more relevant).

In the 9.5 games he played, we scored 22.4 points per game, and in the remaining 6.5 games he didn't play, we scored 15.1 points per game.

So if your gauge for success is wins, he was not a significant impact, but if your gauge is anything else, I think you can pretty objectively say yes he was a significant impact.

See, we're already turning it from significant impact, to... for a rookie, which wasn't the criteria we were talking about. After all, Eifert was a "no" and he had a good season for a rookie TE.

Yards Per Attempt: 11% below average
Completion %: 4% above average
TD%: 14% below average
INT%: 18% above average
QB Rating: 3% below average
0 4th Quarter Comebacks
0 Game Winning Drives
25th Scoring Offense
2-7-1 Record

Overall, Burrow was a average/slightly-below-average QB. 300 yard games aren't really a measure of success. Nobody should brag about throwing 300 yards in 5 quarters while tying a terrible Philly team. Doubly so when you were leading the NFL in pass attempts.

You mentioned 22.4 points per game, it was actually 21.3 ppg in his 10 starts, and that would be good for the 25th scoring offense in the NFL in 2020 (even your 22.4ppg would only be 1 slot higher at 24th). If your gauge of significance is moving down to "does the offense get worse with his backup in?" then the answer is yes for probably about 30/32 QBs in the NFL in 2020 and there's no point in ever asking the question.

[CJD]

(05-05-2021, 01:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: See, we're already turning it from significant impact, to... for a rookie, which wasn't the criteria we were talking about. After all, Eifert was a "no" and he had a good season for a rookie TE.

Yards Per Attempt: 11% below average
Completion %: 4% above average
TD%: 14% below average
INT%: 18% above average
QB Rating: 3% below average
0 4th Quarter Comebacks
0 Game Winning Drives
25th Scoring Offense
2-7-1 Record

Overall, Burrow was a average/slightly-below-average QB. 300 yard games aren't really a measure of success. Nobody should brag about throwing 300 yards in 5 quarters while tying a terrible Philly team. Doubly so when you were leading the NFL in pass attempts.

You mentioned 22.4 points per game, it was actually 21.3 ppg in his 10 starts, and that would be good for the 25th scoring offense in the NFL in 2020 (even your 22.4ppg would only be 1 slot higher at 24th). If your gauge of significance is moving down to "does the offense get worse with his backup in?" then the answer is yes for probably about 30/32 QBs in the NFL in 2020 and there's no point in ever asking the question.

I deducted half a game because he didn't play in the second half of the Washington game, but regardless, I didn't realize we were talking about impact across the NFL. I thought we were talking about being a good rookie. And Burrow was an objectively good rookie QB.  He was on pace for breaking several rookie records before being injured.

But if the bar for a rookie is to be one of the best in the league from the day he plays, then of course no Bengals first round pick is going to exceed that bar because basically no rookie exceeds that bar. 

Because they're rookies.

[Murdock2420]

(05-05-2021, 05:05 AM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: Pretty sure that's also where Kenny Irons' career ended before he even managed a real carry.

(05-05-2021, 09:08 AM)Bengalbug Wrote: Didn’t the same thing happen to Kenny irons? Pre season injury in Detroit?

Edit- “ During the second quarter of the Bengals first preseason game against the Detroit Lions on August 9, Irons tore his ACL on his fourth carry of the game, ending his rookie season. Irons was expected to recover fully and be ready for spring workouts.[2] After the conclusion of the 2007 regular season, Irons said he expected to be ready for training camp in July 2008.[3] However, on July 25, Irons was waived/injured by the Bengals and subsequently placed the reserve/physically-unable-to-perform list. He was waived from the PUP list on August 4.”

Knew there were others. Good catch.

Detroit is just not a good place for us to play it seems.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(05-04-2021, 12:59 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: Ya, the elephant in the room during the Chase v Sewell debate is that whichever got chosen will undoubtedly be injured year 1. Knowing that, the Bengals did the wise thing and went OL in the 2nd round.

No doubt LMAO! Crazy unlucky with 1st round picks as rookies. Just insane.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-05-2021, 01:25 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I deducted half a game because he didn't play in the second half of the Washington game, but regardless, I didn't realize we were talking about impact across the NFL. I thought we were talking about being a good rookie. And Burrow was an objectively good rookie QB.  He was on pace for breaking several rookie records before being injured.

But if the bar for a rookie is to be one of the best in the league from the day he plays, then of course no Bengals first round pick is going to exceed that bar because basically no rookie exceeds that bar. 

Because they're rookies.

Can't really do deductions like that because there's other games where guys missed snaps/quarters and they didn't get deductions, it plays unequal havoc with the numbers. Either way, it's either the 24th or 25th ranked scoring offense. Neither is good.

Nah, this thread is about significant impact. Not "one of the best in the league". Nor is it "good for a rookie". Hence why the OP gave Eifert a "no" despite putting up 39/445/2, which is a quality rookie TE season. It's just not a significant impact as a whole. Meanwhile Zeitler got a yes because he was a notably well above average G from Day 1 as a rookie. AJ Green was another, who was a significant impact his rookie year.

Thus, my discussion in this thread is continuing the theme of the thread. 

(Also, on the topic of rookie records, pass attempts aren't a good thing to set records for. Of the top 10 pass attempt seasons of all time, only 3 of those teams made it to the playoffs, and none of them won a single game in the playoffs. I can't find the list of specifically rookie seasons, but I can't imagine it's any better.)