Bengals over/under odds

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-03-2021, 11:41 AM)Dogget Wrote: I'm with you, Truck.

I'll wear any of those loving terms of endearment, 'hawk.  If you can't see the difference between typical silly season bluster, with a side of hope-springs-eternal, and 1.) what the Bengal players are DOING and SAYING, then you're looking at the wrong group.  2.) The players are juiced beyond anything we've ever seen here.  And the team is currently made up of pretty much ZERO Bengals of old.  3.) So, go ahead and bring that tired, lazy, trite "it's-the-Bengals" pessimism if you want, but keep your baking pan clean because a Humble Pie with Crow is in your future.  Just be man enough to admit it when you see it.  (As will I should I be "mistaken.") 

My only caveat is catastrophic injuries.  Another round of those and it's another train wreck.   But no one can foresee that and it wouldn't be an "I told you so" opportunity.

1.) What is it exactly they are DOING and SAYING?  (I honestly don't know if you've seen something I haven't.) 

I'm under the impression they're working out and going through the typical schedule that you see in the offseason.  Are there activities and drills occuring that are different than in years past?

As far as what they're saying, everything I've heard sounds not much different than any other offseason.  It's mixture of fluff and typical playerspeak.  Fwiw, I don't find this to be good or bad; it's neutral.  You see and hear optimism in every camp, and in every year.

2.) The players are juiced beyond anything we've ever seen here?  What does this even mean?

No offense, but some of these comments are starting to give me troll vibes.  How are the players more juiced than we've ever seen?  Do you mean more excited?  More confident?  Stronger?  Are they more juiced than every one of Marvin's teams?  How are they more juiced than last year or in 2019?  I need details.

3.) Can you lay it on a little thicker? Geez. lol

Is it that odd to find pessimism surrounding a team that has gone 6-25-1 these last two years, has finished below .500 in 5 consecutive years, and hasn't won a playoff game in 3 decades?  Like, the person you're replying to there is the one who is being unfair or irrational?  Isn't this perfectly understandable and to be expected?

You know what's tired?  This franchise under Mike Brown.  You know what's tired? Keeping a Head Coach and BOTH coordinators after winning only 6 games in two years.  You know what's tired?  Making no changes to the front office, and being the only team in the NFL without a practice facility.  What's not at all lazy, or tired, or trite is temper your expectations and hope for the best. 

But go ahead, keep shifting the blame from where it actualy belongs to rational fans if it makes you feel better.  Just don't be surprised if a lot of people rolls their eyes at posts like these.  The reality for most is that the most reasonable thing to be with this team is either pessimistic or cautiously optimistic.  Having blind faith, to the point of calling out others for being skeptical, doesn't seem like the best way approach conversations surrounding the Bengals.

PS I'm pretty sure I just took the bait, but let's see where this goes.  Let's get wild in here. lol

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-03-2021, 11:14 AM)Dogget Wrote: I think 6.5 is ridiculous!  (Except for the fact that Vegas seems to be remarkably accurate most of the time.)  I'm gonna grab all of that I can and take the OVER.  The Bengals will win 10-11 games this season.  This team will be greater than the sum of its parts.  Every new free agent is ga ga over Joe Burrow.  Every player is working his tail off to not let Burrow down and to keep up with his relentless work ethic.  The motivation is palpable.  The number of new players is truly rare.  And when you add the FAs and good players (Mixon, Reader, Waynes, Jonah Williams, etc.) who missed much or all of last year to the very good crop from THIS off season, we will field a team that no one has ever seen and that has never lost a game!

The Bengals are dead.  Long live the BENGALS.  

No more "Bungles" mentality.  No more finding a way to lose.

All Hail The Bengals.  All disposable income on the OVER!!!  :-)

Ok, yeah, I definitely took the bait.  God dammit.

Oh well, I just hope you end up being as cool as that guy who made the video of him wrestling Denny, or as intersting/weird as the guy claimed to be writing a book on this forum.  

[Dogget]

(07-03-2021, 12:23 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Ok, yeah, I definitely took the bait.  God dammit.

Oh well, I just hope you end up being as cool as that guy who made the video of him wrestling Denny, or as intersting/weird as the guy claimed to be writing a book on this forum.  

[Dogget]

Wes, I'll do my best to respond to your points (off the top of my head so that it won't take a week to reply). "Doing or saying": In the "Welcome to Cincinnati" press conferences for most/all of this year's free agents, they mention Joe Burrow as a key reason they chose Cincinnati. (As opposed to previous years' reluctance to do so by quality players.) Even if they framed their response more generally, "I like what they're building, here" it ends up with Joe Burrow. (Mike Hilton, Riley Reiff, Trey Hendrickson, etc.) As to the (voluntary) OTAs, where most teams had limited participation for a limited period, then went home, this year's Bengals has 100% attendance for 3 full weeks. That is, both, different from the rest of the league and different from previous Bengals teams.

The off-season work by some players also was noteworthy. Tee Higgins got stronger and faster, as mentioned by many players and commentators, including Burrow and Higgins himself. Burrow made some significant adjustments to his technique WHILE rehabbing his knee. So, as appears typical with him, he did more than most would have, by not simply recovering from a big injury, but accomplishing other things during that period. Higgins, Uzomah, Boyd, and the coaches ALL commented on how much faster his ball speed is.

"I'm under the impression they're working out and going through the typical schedule that you see in the offseason. Are there activities and drills occuring that are different than in years past?

As far as what they're saying, everything I've heard sounds not much different than any other offseason." I think what I have listed is clearly not "typical." These are not your grandfather's Bengals, as they say. Mike Brown AT LAST got up off a buck and brought in real pros. Hilton, Hendrickson, Reiff, Ogunjobi, even "Chido," I hope (yep! There's some use of the word hope) as well, are quality players who are NOT infected with "Bunglitis." And if, you look at those initial press conferences that I mentioned, you will SEE how they "light up" when they mention Burrow. All in all, that represents a commitment and enthusiasm beyond the other years you mentioned, where the same team comes back (with a couple of hopeful draft picks) and waxes hopeful. (Something of which I was guilty.) And Mike Brown won't take a single snap or throw a single pass. So, his past misfeasance has no weigh anymore.

"Do you mean more excited? More confident? Stronger?" YES. And, I think, justifiably so.

So, yes I'm beyond optimistic to exuberant. And I've been in Cincy since 1979. So, I know rote optimism and canned comments. But I genuinely believe this year is markedly different. No trolling, here. But neither will I countenance, without comment, traditional skepticism in the face of what I have tried to express and a REAL change that I believe I SEE in a bunch of quality NFL players with a couple of stars and superstars sprinkled in.

I hope I was responsive.

[Cicero]

(06-30-2021, 09:29 AM)EatonFan Wrote: I think the main factor in this is Joe Burrow's development.  A QB can make or break you in many close games.  If you ask any football fan, who is the most important position player on the field for any given team?  The answer has to be:  QB

Agreed. Burrow is a short term question mark. It might take some time to get mentally back into things. 

By the way I married a girl from your town. I met her when she was a Miami chick down in Oxford.  

[MTBengalsFan]

(07-04-2021, 05:59 PM)Cicero Wrote: Agreed. Burrow is a short term question mark. It might take some time to get mentally back into things. 

By the way I married a girl from your town. I met her when she was a Miami chick down in Oxford.  

As a longtime fan (since the beginning), I ought to know better, but I'd take the over. Gotta be optimistic at this time of year.

I was raised in Oxford, met a Miami gal when I went back for grad school, married her, and moved back to Montana in '93. It'll be 30 years in October. All that despite proposing 4 days after our first date.

[Cicero]

(07-04-2021, 06:18 PM)MTBengalsFan Wrote: As a longtime fan (since the beginning), I ought to know better, but I'd take the over. Gotta be optimistic at this time of year.

I was raised in Oxford, met a Miami gal when I went back for grad school, married her, and moved back to Montana in '93. It'll be 30 years in October. All that despite proposing 4 days after our first date.

I tend to think optimistically as well. I would do the over if I were a betting man.

Oxford is a cool town. We spent a lot of time at Hueston Woods and running from swans at the pond over at the pond near Kumler Chapel and Peabody Hall. 

I've actually been to Montana several times. I grew up in El Paso and we vacationed up around the Tetons and Yellowstone every year. I can see why you made your way back out there.  

[*rfaulk34*]

(07-04-2021, 06:31 PM)Cicero Wrote: I tend to think optimistically as well. I would do the over if I were a betting man.

Oxford is a cool town. We spent a lot of time at Hueston Woods and running from swans at the pond over at the pond near Kumler Chapel and Peabody Hall. 

I've actually been to Montana several times. I grew up in El Paso and we vacationed up around the Tetons and Yellowstone every year. I can see why you made your way back out there.  

Dammit. Every time i see your name, the only thing i can think is Slippin' Jimmy. 

[Tony]

What is wrong with some of you guys? You can't be actual Bengal fans.. I see 9-10 wins...

[Tony]

(06-30-2021, 04:04 PM)J24 Wrote: 1.) Who cares about OTAs? Their Literally playing against air.

2.) The play calling might be overblown but he isn't the second coming of Bill Walsh either. 

3.) Nose Tackle isn't an important position in today's NFL.So saying Reader will have an huge impact is very misleading. Its like being excited over having a great Full Back it's good but it matters very little. Hendrickson 1.) Has only had one top notch season and 2.) Benefited from playing across Cam Jordan and next too David Onyemeta.  He doesn't have the same supporting cast that he had their.

Stop telling people how to feel this communist Bengal Land.

While I think this team has potential (especially offensively) I think it will take time for them to gel and improve. At the End of the season we will be a tough team to play but it will take some time.

Funny , the #1 player in the NFL is a DT... Guess someone values it...  

[Cicero]

(07-04-2021, 08:55 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Dammit. Every time i see your name, the only thing i can think is Slippin' Jimmy. 

It's all good man! 

My username is actually way more nerdy. I am a just a philosophy geek. 

[KillerGoose]

(07-05-2021, 01:29 AM)Tony Wrote: Funny , the #1 player in the NFL is a DT... Guess someone values it...  

Aaron Donald isn’t a nose tackle, which is what he was referring to specifically.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(07-05-2021, 11:08 AM)Cicero Wrote: It's all good man! 

My username is actually way more nerdy. I am a just a philosophy geek. 

That ain't nerdy; that's mature, cool and intellectual

[*Go Cards*]

Maybe too optimistic but I see 7 - 9 wins if Burrow can stays healthy and would ride the over.

Maybe more if everything falls into place, yet that's a lot to ask this year and doubt it.

Don't think 7-10 or 9-8 is that crazy of prediction with what has been added to team and QB gaining experience not being a rookie any longer.

Could they suck again, absolutely and would not be shocked at all.

But told you guys I am shouldering the blame for Bengals ineptness the last 29 years.

They quit winning playoff games the year I became a season ticket holder in 91 but have since given them up to break the curse and its all good from this point forward.. Will take over if betting but I won't bet anything too big.

[*psychdoctor*]

I see Bengals going 10-7 this year. over for sure.

[Wes Mantooth]

Fwiw, here are our win total predictions (over/under betting lines) for each year over the last decade.  I'll list the win total line set, our actual win total, and whether or not we went over or under.

2020 - Odds = 6.5, Actual Win Total = 4.  Under.

2019 - Odds = 6, Actual Win Total = 2.  Under.

2018 - Odds = 7, Actual Win Total = 6.  Under.

2017 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 7.  Under.

2016 - Odds = 9.5, Actual Win Total = 6.  Under.

2015 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toall = 12.  Over.

2014 - Odds = 9, Actual Win Total = 10.  Over.

2013 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 11.  Over.

2012 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total = 10.  Over.

2011 - Odds = 5.5, Actual Win Total = 9.  Over.

2010 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total - 4.  Under.

I'm posting this for a couple different reasons.  

1.) It shows just what a crapshoot it is betting season long over/unders.  

2.) It shows you, that for the most part, these lines set are more accurate than you might initially believe.  While they're never going to be exact (that's not what they're intended for, they're intended to encourage betting), they do do a pretty a good job of ballparking how good a team is.  Of course there are exceptions to this but rarely are they completely off the map.

To each their own, but I'd wary of placing any season long bet that isn't strictly for fun, regardless of whether it's over or under.  I'd also caution against thinking this is a 2 win team or an 11 win team.  If history tells us anything it's that this club will most likely fall into somewhere in the 4 (lower) to 9 (higher) range.  Extremes would be 3 or less, or 11 or more.  For this team to hit 11 wins it would need to outproduce the line by 5.5.  That  type of difference hasn't been seen in these examples.

I have no idea if anyone will find this info useful but I'd thought I'd share it anyways.

[*Go Cards*]

(07-06-2021, 03:05 PM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: Fwiw, here are our win total predictions (over/under betting lines) for each year over the last decade.  I'll list the win total line set, our actual win total, and whether or not we went over or under.

2020 - Odds = 6.5, Actual Win Total = 4.  Under.

2019 - Odds = 6, Actual Win Total = 2.  Under.

2018 - Odds = 7, Actual Win Total = 6.  Under.

2017 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 7.  Under.

2016 - Odds = 9.5, Actual Win Total = 6.  Under.

2015 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toall = 12.  Over.

2014 - Odds = 9, Actual Win Total = 10.  Over.

2013 - Odds = 8.5, Actual Win Toal = 11.  Over.

2012 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total = 10.  Over.

2011 - Odds = 5.5, Actual Win Total = 9.  Over.

2010 - Odds = 7.5, Actual Win Total - 4.  Under.

I'm posting this for a couple different reasons.  

1.) It shows just what a crapshoot it is betting season long over/unders.  

2.) It shows you, that for the most part, these lines set are more accurate than you might initially believe.  While they're never going to be exact (that's not what they're intended for, they're intended to encourage betting), they do do a pretty a good job of ballparking how good a team is.  Of course there are exceptions to this but rarely are they completely off the map.

To each their own, but I'd wary of placing any season long bet that isn't strictly for fun, regardless of whether it's over or under.  I'd also caution against thinking this is a 2 win team or an 11 win team.  If history tells us anything it's that this club will most likely fall into somewhere in the 4 (lower) to 9 (higher) range.  Extremes would be 3 or less, or 11 or more.  For this team to hit 11 wins it would need to outproduce the line by 5.5.  That  type of difference hasn't been seen in these examples.

I have no idea if anyone will find this info useful but I'd thought I'd share it anyways.

Cool and thanks for sharing and of course you're absolutely correct with your statement. 

But let's look through a different eyes and look for patterns to emerge lol.   

According to chart in the years that end with the number "1" , 100% of the time the Bengals start a 5 year streak of going over in a row.

In years that end with "6"  they begin a 5 year streak of going under win total line.

And always go under in years ending with #0. 

Backing up that they should go over in 2021 and the following 4 years as well. 

Plus it shows that the Bengals are definitely overdue to go over as well having gone under 5 years straight.  

There also is an extra game this season that should help some.
Got too search hard for the optimism sometimes. 

[BengalChris]

(06-29-2021, 11:29 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: We won 4 games (and tied 1) last year with:

- a worse oline
- worse weapons
- worse defense
- Burrow out for 6.5 games
- Worse (on paper) coaching

Nobody is saying that we're winning 13 and going for the SB, but to say we're not going to improve 2 games with the improvements/draft that we made/had?

You guys are nuts and beyond-negative (natch). I would say moronic and/or idiotic, but that's rude and I won't go that far.

Yeah, but something always seems to happen that throws a monkey wrench into the works. We are counting on a LT who's missed 22 or 32 games since he arrived, a NT who missed 11 games last season, a CB who missed all of last year, a rookie OG who played LT in college, a Center who's coming off surgery and a head coach who has the worst record in team history.

Last season the team drafted Burrow 1st overall, took a good WR in the 2nd round, signed Reader to shore up the middle of the DL, Waynes to pair with Willie Jackson, Alexander to hold down the slot, and we got AJ back from a bad ankle injury. And we had a last place weak ass schedule. Surely we were going to have more than 5 wins. Yet we didn't and got our asses spanked by the worst division in the NFL.

If Pollack is going to turn around the offense and the team from his oline coaching job, then frankly, he should be the head coach and not that nimrod the team kept.

 

[Sanforbd]

25 wins in the last 5 years. Woof

[NATI BENGALS]

We were in every game but the Steelers and Ravens when Burrow was healthy last year. Pretty good for a rookie QB with an extremely abnormal off-season and a shit show of an OL, a D that fell apart, and a stud RB who missed most of the year.

I’m not sure why the cry babies even root for the team. The ones who claim to be fans but are shitting on “their” team in the summer before a game is even played after the second very eventful offseason in a row (which is absolutely abnormal around here). When the ball is hiked Mike Brown isn’t the one down there playing football. Rinse the sand out of your chaffed asses and have some optimism.