ZT Coach of the Year Odds

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-01-2021, 04:01 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Really, is that why they were calling guys off the couch by the middle of the season? Off the top of my head and I'm sure I'm missing some....
Reader
XFS 
Waynes
Wren
Topou (opt out)
Burrow
AJ (who obviously was not 100%)
Geno
J. Williams
Mixon
Hubbard for a few games

And you aren't going to win many games with Lashaun Sims lining up as a starting DB.... injuries might not be the single reason for some of the losses, but you can't mitigate it as a causing factor. 

Now go do that for every other team, you might be surprised what you find.  If you really want to see some injuries and a team decimated by them, look at the 49'ers last year.  Makes ours look like nothing.  Yet they still won 6 games.

You might want to read though this thread.  The initial graph is useful, and you should find some other info within the other comments.

http://thebengalsboard.com/Thread-Injuries-Vs-Wins-Our-Injuries-are-Overstated

[*Nately120*]

(07-01-2021, 01:36 PM)Sled21 Wrote: Yeah yeah, because we all know a Head Coach can change things overnight. The year before last he was coaching Marvin's leftover players. Last year they were devastated with injuries. He now has HIS team with HIS Quarterback, and Lou has the defensive players brought in to fit their scheme. There are no more excuses this year.  

ZT was supposed to upgrade this team the day he showed up.  He was an offensive genius with a fresh mind and playbook who was going to get Dalton back to 2015 form and make John Ross look like the top 10 pick Marvin refused to let him be. 

There are never excuses at this level.  Plus im pretty sure we will be able to find an excuse 2021 didn't count if we look hard enough. We've already lost an o lineman. 

At least ZT has Gruden and the raiders drawing attention for franchise and coach that needs 5-20 years to finally rebuild. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-01-2021, 11:33 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I might put a hundo on it and buy myself an old car to play with if I win:)

Send me the $100 instead if you're just going to throw it away.

[*Nately120*]

Stuff like this makes me realize how interestingly fluid the nature of optimism can be.  Going into 2019 the optimistic take on 2019 was that Marvin was stale and not trying and ZT was going to hit the ground running and get us back into relevance with a fresh new style of coaching our proven players.  

Going into to 2021 the optimistic take on 2019 is that the roster was hopeless and it was completely foreseeable that we were the worst team in the league.


Maybe I forget stuff...but going into 2019 wasn't the idea that we:

1. possibly had our Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVey
2. finally had an offensive-minded HC for Dalton
3. finally had a coach who wouldn't bench John Ross because he didn't like him
4. finally had a coach who wouldn't be afraid to use Joe Mixon

What else was there?  I must have seriously missed all the "This roster is total crap, we're gonna go 2-14 no matter who our HC is."  I sure as heck didn't hear that from the optimistic folks, did I?  Again, maybe ZT is awesome this year...more likely the optimists next year are talking "Instant reboot" with our next HC.  

I'll say that I really hope the Steelers' rebuild takes as long as ours does.

[*bengalfan74*]

I'd love it if ZT was named coach of the year. I'm just not expecting ZT to be named coach of the year.

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-01-2021, 12:37 PM)Sled21 Wrote: This is his year to show us what he's got. He'll start with a healthy roster and a defense suited to play Lou's scheme. I believe they will surprise some people.

Completely agree.  I got hammered (not the good way) on here for saying that Lou had shown flashes of being a good defensive coordinator (I still stand by that) and ditto for ZT.  The way the schedule sets up, a quick start might get this young team believing and playing hard.  

It starts with beating the Vikings.  Oddly, I took Mike Zimmer in the "first coach to be fired" pool and his odds were something like 40-1.  I figured none of the brand new coaches were at risk and if Zimmer's defense comes out flat and Cousins is, well, Cousins, he could be out of a job.  I love the guy but just thinking in terms of a good longshot.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-01-2021, 04:13 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: A good head coach doesnt take a decent team and dropped it to the 1st overall pick in one season either...  He had HIS offensive line coach the last 2 years how that work out?

I believe this to be one of ZT's biggest faults.  He was overly loyal to his guys when they were clearly not cut out to be coaches.  

[TJ528]

(07-02-2021, 10:23 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I believe this to be one of ZT's biggest faults.  He was overly loyal to his guys when they were clearly not cut out to be coaches.  

I mean he hung on to Turner for 2 seasons to long.  He's kept Lou after 2 disastrous seasons of defensive play.  

One thing i'll give Marvin credit for, he knew Leslie Frazier didnt fit his defense and fired him after 2 seasons. 

Same thing should've done to Lou, but as you said he's overly loyal to his guys. 

So maybe we just nickname Zac, Mike Brown. 

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-01-2021, 07:35 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Stuff like this makes me realize how interestingly fluid the nature of optimism can be.  Going into 2019 the optimistic take on 2019 was that Marvin was stale and not trying and ZT was going to hit the ground running and get us back into relevance with a fresh new style of coaching our proven players.  

Going into to 2021 the optimistic take on 2019 is that the roster was hopeless and it was completely foreseeable that we were the worst team in the league.


Maybe I forget stuff...but going into 2019 wasn't the idea that we:

1. possibly had our Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVey
2. finally had an offensive-minded HC for Dalton
3. finally had a coach who wouldn't bench John Ross because he didn't like him
4. finally had a coach who wouldn't be afraid to use Joe Mixon

What else was there?  I must have seriously missed all the "This roster is total crap, we're gonna go 2-14 no matter who our HC is."  I sure as heck didn't hear that from the optimistic folks, did I?  Again, maybe ZT is awesome this year...more likely the optimists next year are talking "Instant reboot" with our next HC.  

I'll say that I really hope the Steelers' rebuild takes as long as ours does.

100% true, but in fairness we had the most money tied up in a handful players that were either injured (Waynes, Reader), fell off a cliff talent-wise (Dunlap, Atkins), or both (Green).  Those five guys gave absolutely nothing over the past two seasons (you could say Dunlap finished strong in 2019, but damn did he suck the first half).  That is your Pro Bowl talent on the team.  Your top pay guys.  And you got NOTHING from them.

Fast forward to 2021.  Reader and Waynes are healthy.  Green, Dunlap, Atkins are gone and replaced with younger talent.  

The offensive line was the perfect storm losing XSF in week 1 and the RG position became a revolving door of revolving doors.  Mike Jordan's play actually worsened.  Jonah got injured again.  Bobby Hart was Bobby Hart.

Fast forward to 2021 again.  Reiff replaces Hart.  Spain most likely replaces Jordan.  Carman replaces the revolving doors.  Jonah is healthy and in what is essentially a contract year.  

We can continue to piss and moan about the results of 2019 and 2020, but it led us to where we are today.  This is the no excuses season.  Either they win 10 games and perhaps squeeze in to the playoffs, or they lay yet another egg and we have a whole new coaching staff.  There won't be a middle ground.  I am betting on the former.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-02-2021, 10:27 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I mean he hung on to Turner for 2 seasons to long.  He's kept Lou after 2 disastrous seasons of defensive play.  

One thing i'll give Marvin credit for, he knew Leslie Frazier didnt fit his defense and fired him after 2 seasons. 

Same thing should've done to Lou, but as you said he's overly loyal to his guys. 

So maybe we just nickname Zac, Mike Brown. 

Excellent point.  Marv had a revolving door of defensive coordinators before and after getting Zim.  We torch ZT for his failings, and he deserves it, but Marv had his most success with a loaded coaches room.  

[TJ528]

(07-02-2021, 10:36 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Excellent point.  Marv had a revolving door of defensive coordinators before and after getting Zim.  We torch ZT for his failings, and he deserves it, but Marv had his most success with a loaded coaches room.  

Racer, its like that with any coaching staff though, whether it's NFL or college.  

Most successful teams have successful coaches, and those coaches move on when teams are successful. 

Both Gruden and Zimmer were hired after they'd been successful OC and DC for the Bengals.  

Look at his current assembled staff and tell me if there's one coach you can say "yep I could see them as head coach someday". 

It sure as hell isnt the "supposed" OC Callahan.  It's not Lou.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(07-02-2021, 10:47 AM)TJ528 Wrote: Racer, its like that with any coaching staff though, whether it's NFL or college.  

Most successful teams have successful coaches, and those coaches move on when teams are successful. 

Both Gruden and Zimmer were hired after they'd been successful OC and DC for the Bengals.  

Look at his current assembled staff and tell me if there's one coach you can say "yep I could see them as head coach someday". 

It sure as hell isnt the "supposed" OC Callahan.  It's not Lou.  

After McVay got a young team to the Super Bowl, the copy cat league starting going with young, innovative guys.  Are Callagan and Lou these guys as well?  Doesn't look like it, but this season will either show they belong or they will be shown the door.  No middle ground.  

[TJ528]

(07-02-2021, 10:56 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: After McVay got a young team to the Super Bowl, the copy cat league starting going with young, innovative guys.  Are Callagan and Lou these guys as well?  Doesn't look like it, but this season will either show they belong or they will be shown the door.  No middle ground.  

Well i mean i guess your team has to win more than 6 games in 2 seasons to start with 

However, I get what your saying.  It did help that McVay got to the Super Bowl.  

I don't see that happening in Cincinnati this year but if it did I'd forever ask for forgiveness for my looking down upon Zac and staff lol

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-02-2021, 10:27 AM)TJ528 Wrote: I mean he hung on to Turner for 2 seasons to long.  He's kept Lou after 2 disastrous seasons of defensive play.  

One thing i'll give Marvin credit for, he knew Leslie Frazier didnt fit his defense and fired him after 2 seasons. 

Same thing should've done to Lou, but as you said he's overly loyal to his guys. 

So maybe we just nickname Zac, Mike Brown. 

I still can't believe the team elected to keep Lou.

I already thought that there was a very good chance he was going to be let go before the last game.  And then the Ravens game happened, and one would think that should have made it where there was absolutely no doubt.

To give up 404 yards on the ground is unforgiveable.  It's the 4th most all time in the history of the league .  And 2 of the 3 ahead of us occured in the 1950's. (Not exactly apples to apples)

Making it even worse was the Ravens started pulling guys towards the end of 3rd quarter.  They were up 38-3 after the 3 quarters.  Even when they were playing backups, and we knew they were going to run and were going to eat time, we still couldn't stop them.

We gave 38 points in a game where the opponent only threw for 121 yards.  That's crazy.  We recorded no sacks, and no fumbles.  We allowed them over 40 minutes in time of possesion.  They averaged 7.5 yards a carry on a whopping 54 rushing attempts.  Lou had absolutely no answers. 

To see these types of stats in a professional game is almost unreal.  This is something you might see if Alabama plays Stony Brook or something.  Or a nationally ranked HS team like St. X playing a smaller school, a division or 2 lower, like New Richmond.  To see this at this level, especially in a division game, is something else entirely.

And Mike, and Katie, and Duke, and Zac thought it was a good idea to bring this turd back???  The guy who has produced two bottom of the barrel defenses in consecutive years, and had a number of players speak out about his scheme and coaching during the season?

We not only elected to bring back the head coach who would have been fired pretty much everywhere else, but  we can't even make a change at either of cooridnator spots?  Insanity.

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-01-2021, 07:35 PM)Nately120 Wrote: Stuff like this makes me realize how interestingly fluid the nature of optimism can be.  Going into 2019 the optimistic take on 2019 was that Marvin was stale and not trying and ZT was going to hit the ground running and get us back into relevance with a fresh new style of coaching our proven players.  

Going into to 2021 the optimistic take on 2019 is that the roster was hopeless and it was completely foreseeable that we were the worst team in the league.


Maybe I forget stuff...but going into 2019 wasn't the idea that we:

1. possibly had our Kyle Shanahan/Sean McVey
2. finally had an offensive-minded HC for Dalton
3. finally had a coach who wouldn't bench John Ross because he didn't like him
4. finally had a coach who wouldn't be afraid to use Joe Mixon

What else was there?  I must have seriously missed all the "This roster is total crap, we're gonna go 2-14 no matter who our HC is."  I sure as heck didn't hear that from the optimistic folks, did I?  Again, maybe ZT is awesome this year...more likely the optimists next year are talking "Instant reboot" with our next HC.  

I'll say that I really hope the Steelers' rebuild takes as long as ours does.

Fwiw, one of the people in this very thread, who said Taylor inherited "Marvin's leftovers", also predicted us to go to the AFC Championship in 2019.

So he obviously LOVED the roster then.  But in hindsight?  Taylor was given little to nothing to work with.  Funny how that works.

[TJ528]

(07-02-2021, 11:03 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: I still can't believe the team elected to keep Lou.

I already thought that there was a very good chance he was going to be let go before the last game.  And then the Ravens game happened, and one would think that should have made it where there was absolutely no doubt.

To give up 404 yards on the ground is unforgiveable.  It's the 4th most all time in the history of the league .  And 2 of the 3 ahead of us occured in the 1950's. (Not exactly apples to apples)

Making it even worse was the Ravens started pulling guys towards the end of 3rd quarter.  They were up 38-3 after the 3 quarters.  Even when they were playing backups, and we knew they were going to run and were going to eat time, we still couldn't stop them.

We gave 38 points in a game where the opponent only threw for 121 yards.  That's crazy.  We recorded no sacks, and no fumbles.  We allowed them over 40 minutes in time of possesion.  They averaged 7.5 yards a carry on a whopping 54 rushing attempts.  Lou had absolutely no answers. 

To see these types of stats in a professional game is almost unreal.  This is something you might see if Alabama plays Stony Brook or something.  Or a nationally ranked HS team like St. X playing a smaller school, a division or 2 lower, like New Richmond.  To see this at this level, especially in a division game, is something else entirely.

And Mike, and Katie, and Duke, and Zac thought it was a good idea to bring this turd back???  The guy who has produced two bottom of the barrel defenses in consecutive years, and had a number of players speak out about his scheme and coaching during the season?

We not only elected to bring back the head coach who would have been fired pretty much everywhere else, but  we can't even make a change at either of cooridnator spots?  Insanity.

My only answer to this game is that it was the last game of the year.  Players didnt care.  Coaches didnt care.

Players literally gave up when that game got out of hand.  

Yea the Ravens are a LOT better team than us, but no team should be able to run on your for over 400 yards.  

However, hey keep running.  I'd rather than run up the score, get 500-600 yards rushing than kneeling on the ball. 

Hopefully, it embarrassed the team enough to give a damn this year. 

[Wes Mantooth]

(07-02-2021, 11:08 AM)TJ528 Wrote: My only answer to this game is that it was the last game of the year.  Players didnt care.  Coaches didnt care.

Players literally gave up when that game got out of hand.  

Yea the Ravens are a LOT better team than us, but no team should be able to run on your for over 400 yards.  

However, hey keep running.  I'd rather than run up the score, get 500-600 yards rushing than kneeling on the ball. 

Hopefully, it embarrassed the team enough to give a damn this year. 

There was another game that was equally as bad from DC standpoint IMO; the 2nd Browns game was a disaster.

Baker Mayfield completed 22 passes in a row, after starting 0-5.  His only incompletion after this was on a spike to stop the clock.  This article claims the odds of this occuring is 19,062 to 1.  

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2020/10/26/breaking-down-baker-mayfield-consecutive-completion-odds-record-browns/

Pretty sure this was the game OBJ tore his ACL early in the game too.  (You would think losing your #1 receiver in the middle of a game would hurt your gameplan)

And to top it all off, as if letting Mayfield complete everything he throws isn't bad enough, was the drive to end the game.

The Browns got the ball back down 34-31 with only 1:06 left on the clock, starting on their 25, and with no timeouts.  The chances of them scoring a TD here was slim to none, although that is exactly what they did.

They later had the ball at our 25 yard line with only 15 seconds left (again no timeouts).  The only defense you should be playing is keeping guys out of the endzone, keeping the receivers in front of you, and trying to keep them in bounds.  A tackle in bounds ends the game.  A completion that stops the clock results in a FG attempt.

So what does Lou draw up?  A freaking blitz where his outside corner gets beat in man coverage for the game winning TD.  Like, what in the absolute freak are you doing?

We made Baker Mayfield look like a created character on Madden that is 99's across the board, who is throwing to 99 rated receivers, and is playing against a shit team.  To allow of this to happen, 22 straight completions, 5 passing TD's, a 75 yard drive in a minute with no timeouts, that's just terrible, terrible defense.

If anyone wants to relieve the misery, here is the final drive if you want to Lou's defense get carved up.  I still can't believe it happened.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arrn-oGv5E4

[TJHoushmandzadeh's Shiny Shoes]

66-1 is some serious value for what is a 32 horse handicap race with the handicap favoring the Bengals. The expectations on the Bengals are so low that Zac has to do a lot less to win it than basically any other Head Coach. I reckon getting the Bengals to the play-offs would be enough to put him in the running, so it is similar to a 66-1 bet to reach the play-offs.

I did have a look to see if I could get on at that price but they aren't offering odds where I am.

Last time I bet on the Bengals is when they were 50-1 in 2015. I waited until they were something like 12-1 before I laid off some of that to ensure some profit but had they gone all the way I reckoned I'd have still won enough to pay for a SuperBowl ticket. I probably wouldn't put quite so much on this time but a little bit and then look to top up if they win the first game of the season.

[TJ528]

(07-02-2021, 11:51 AM)Wes Mantooth Wrote: There was another game that was equally as bad from DC standpoint IMO; the 2nd Browns game was a disaster.

Baker Mayfield completed 22 passes in a row, after starting 0-5.  His only incompletion after this was on a spike to stop the clock.  This article claims the odds of this occuring is 19,062 to 1.  

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2020/10/26/breaking-down-baker-mayfield-consecutive-completion-odds-record-browns/

Pretty sure this was the game OBJ tore his ACL early in the game too.  (You would think losing your #1 receiver in the middle of a game would hurt your gameplan)

And to top it all off, as if letting Mayfield complete everything he throws isn't bad enough, was the drive to end the game.

The Browns got the ball back down 34-31 with only 1:06 left on the clock, starting on their 25, and with no timeouts.  The chances of them scoring a TD here was slim to none, although that is exactly what they did.

They later had the ball at our 25 yard line with only 15 seconds left (again no timeouts).  The only defense you should be playing is keeping guys out of the endzone, keeping the receivers in front of you, and trying to keep them in bounds.  A tackle in bounds ends the game.  A completion that stops the clock results in a FG attempt.

So what does Lou draw up?  A freaking blitz where his outside corner gets beat in man coverage for the game winning TD.  Like, what in the absolute freak are you doing?

We made Baker Mayfield look like a created character on Madden that is 99's across the board, who is throwing to 99 rated receivers, and is playing against a shit team.  To allow of this to happen, 22 straight completions, 5 passing TD's, a 75 yard drive in a minute with no timeouts, that's just terrible, terrible defense.

If anyone wants to relieve the misery, here is the final drive if you want to Lou's defense get carved up.  I still can't believe it happened.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arrn-oGv5E4

Oh Wes who doesn't remember that game and fondly think we have a great DC in Lou 

I mean you'll have people who'll say our whole DL was on IR, or our whole DB were on IR.  

Valid point but usually you have 2nd and 3rd stringers who can play better than that.  

Personally, I'm not a fan of Lou.  He hasn't shown me he can even coach DB's and that's his area of specialty.  

I guess we'll see what he brings to our defensive this year and whether he can assemble a lot of new pieces and make them gel quickly. 

Someone posted earlier, Clevelands defense last year was a bunch of new pieces and you dont need a lot of time for them to gel together. 

I think a lof that comes down to the quality of the coaching their receiving.  I'd take Clevelands DC Joe Woods over Lou everyday period. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-02-2021, 10:56 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: After McVay got a young team to the Super Bowl, the copy cat league starting going with young, innovative guys.  Are Callagan and Lou these guys as well?  Doesn't look like it, but this season will either show they belong or they will be shown the door.  No middle ground. 

Yes, I can't imagine ZT and Co. surviving a 4-13 season. I still get confused on the numbers for 17 game season, lol. I mean we've only been playing 16 since 1975 or something. 

Oh the excuse army will come up with something I'm sure but IMHO he's used all his excuses up and then some.

I'm not hoping he/they fail, I'm not wanting them to stink. I just have a hard time believing as bad as they've stunk they're just gonna get it all together now. Hope I'm wrong.