Why am I so damn optimistic?

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-15-2021, 08:51 PM)KingOfQueens Wrote: Lol, this is the dumbest troll counter argument of all time.  They have played in one game

And do I think better pass catcher options, specifically at TE,  would help a QB?   Yes I do. 

This should be interesting.  Please list the TEs that are better pass catcher options that Chase, Higgins, and Boyd.  

Oh, and since they will be taking the place of one of those downfield threats and safeties will be closer to the LOS, please make sure they can block as well.  

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-16-2021, 08:59 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You are correct.  Gronk is the greatest receiving TE in the history of the NFL. His presence creates an outlier in the stats.

But you are not calling for a Hall of Fame TE.  You want O.J. Howard.  I don't want to takes targets away from Higgins/Boyd/Chase to give them to Howard.

Gronk of 2020 wasn't the same HOF Gronk they had in New England, but all those WRs in Tampa helped clear for him and he had a huge Super Bowl, which he continued on in week 1 of this year.  

In 2020's regular season, he had 45 receptions on 77 targets for 623 yards.  Heck, Drew Sample had 40 receptions on 53 targets (highest completion % on the team) for 349 yards in what was essentially his rookies season (I only added that last point because it makes some people crazy).  

He is a true outlier, but let's not pretend that him taking a one-year, $8 million deal to play for Tampa in 2020 (he is getting $10 million this year) is anything like the Gronk in his prime....or a Travis Kelce.  

Uzomah will get his targets and will show that he is a solid value at TE for the Bengals.  

I, for one, am also AMAZED that coming off an achilles injury that he was ready for camp and played in week 1.  Amazing for a guy his size.  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-16-2021, 09:20 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Kendricks is one of, if not the best, coverage LBs in the NFL.  Burrow will go where the matchup dictates.  

I will also say that CJ seems to be one of the most beloved Bengals in the locker room since Gio and I love the chemistry the team has with him.  I seriously doubt Tampa would give up on Howard given Gronk's age (maybe he is on the TB12 diet, though?  ) and his potential upside.  He sure hasn't shown much to me, though.  

One last point regarding game plans involving (or not involving) the TEs in the offense:  The climate here changes.  When it is freezing and windy, you might see more 12 personnel and a focus on the ground game and high % passes with Uzo and Sample.  I feel pretty good knowing that both have NFL experience and can get the job done when called upon.  

Yeah, I liked OJ Howard in college and wanted us to draft him but he has been disappointing in the NFL in my eyes. At this point
would I take a flyer on Howard? Of course, but he would have to earn his way and be a decent blocker. I think we will see more 
targets to the TE as you say when the weather changes, windy, rainy, snowy days. When the weather is good the WR's will get 
the targets and that is what you want as we saw last Sunday. That trio is no joke.

Speaking of being optimistic, I watched the game again and damn is our DT room deep. BJ Hill, Ogunjobi, Reader and Tupou all
had a great game and were just constantly eating up the middle of that Viking OL. Remember Synric predicting this before the 
game along with my prediction of Hendrickson having a great game as he did.

If Rashod Hill didn't hold or false start so much Trey could of had 4 or 5 sacks lol

[*SHRacerX*]

(09-16-2021, 01:40 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, I liked OJ Howard in college and wanted us to draft him but he has been disappointing in the NFL in my eyes. At this point
would I take a flyer on Howard? Of course, but he would have to earn his way and be a decent blocker. I think we will see more 
targets to the TE as you say when the weather changes, windy, rainy, snowy days. When the weather is good the WR's will get 
the targets and that is what you want as we saw last Sunday. That trio is no joke.

Speaking of being optimistic, I watched the game again and damn is our DT room deep. BJ Hill, Ogunjobi, Reader and Tupou all
had a great game and were just constantly eating up the middle of that Viking OL. Remember Synric predicting this before the 
game along with my prediction of Hendrickson having a great game as he did.

If Rashod Hill didn't hold or false start so much Trey could of had 4 or 5 sacks lol

The "Hear that Podcast Growling" podcast with Paul Dehner, Jr. and Jay Morrison was rolling off some AMAZING stats.  I couldn't jot them down as I was mowing on a tractor at the swim club, but there were a few that I remembered:

In 2020, the Bengals DTs had a TOTAL of 3 sacks and something like 36 pressures.

In week 1 of 2021, they had 3 sacks (and a 4th negated by penalty) and 15 pressures.  They also forced 6 holding penalties (one was declined).

That is absolutely insane.

It is both a reflection of how piss poor we were in the middle (which screws the LBs) and how much improved they are in 2021 (and we saw how the LBs similarly improved).  

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-16-2021, 05:50 PM)SHRacerX Wrote: The "Hear that Podcast Growling" podcast with Paul Dehner, Jr. and Jay Morrison was rolling off some AMAZING stats.  I couldn't jot them down as I was mowing on a tractor at the swim club, but there were a few that I remembered:

In 2020, the Bengals DTs had a TOTAL of 3 sacks and something like 36 pressures.

In week 1 of 2021, they had 3 sacks (and a 4th negated by penalty) and 15 pressures.  They also forced 6 holding penalties (one was declined).

That is absolutely insane.

It is both a reflection of how piss poor we were in the middle (which screws the LBs) and how much improved they are in 2021 (and we saw how the LBs similarly improved).  

That is insane. One game. BOOM!

BTW, I saw some of ADG in this game of what I was hoping to see, the game has slowed down for him and he has the raw 
talent to be one of the most explosive OLB's in the NFL. This guy looked way improved. Wilson had the one bad play on the 
Dalvin Cook TD where our DL and Pratt were shutting off the edge and Wilson should of realigned his gap and went inside 
and cleaned Cook up but he didn't and Cook made a great cut and got the TD on us. I bet Logan is really kicking himself 
watching that play.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-16-2021, 12:36 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: Snark really necessary?

Ceej is more-than sufficient at TE, period.

When we start losing multiple games, due to shitty TEs, then you'll have a point.

Otherwise, what we have is more-than sufficient (for the 3rd time).


Can't agree to that, Ocho; Ceej has shown he is a very good TE and he/Joe have insanely-good chemistry, not to mention that they still don't use them to their fullest.

People have been down on him just because he has a, "big contract," (which it isn't), but I'm perfectly happy with his output (when healthy lol).

Depends on your definition of "very good," I guess.
Uzomah's best season (16 games) - 43 rec, 439 yards, 3 TDs
That's not "very good" in my book. That's just decent. He was just the 17th TE in the league in yardage that year, behind Chris Herndon (WHO?!)

To me, "very good" for a TE is 600+ yards.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-16-2021, 07:13 PM)ochocincos Wrote: To me, "very good" for a TE is 600+ yards.

Well, he's on pace for 595 right now...

[fredtoast]

(09-16-2021, 07:13 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Depends on your definition of "very good," I guess.
Uzomah's best season (16 games) - 43 rec, 439 yards, 3 TDs
That's not "very good" in my book. That's just decent. He was just the 17th TE in the league in yardage that year, behind Chris Herndon (WHO?!)

To me, "very good" for a TE is 600+ yards.

I am not going to try and argue that CJ is a top TE.  But he is far from the bottom.  It is hard to judge based on just raw numbers because some teams target their TEs more than others.  And his best season that you mention was 2018 when Driskel started several games and we had less than 3300 passing yards.

If you look at the efficiency numbers Uzo has an above average catch percentage and a below average yds/target.  Again this has a lot to do with the way the Bengals use TEs mainly as checkdown receivers.  Eifert was an elite talent at TE.  He could get in and out of his cuts and run routes like a WR.  But even he only had one season with an average of over 12 yards per catch.

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(09-16-2021, 07:13 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Depends on your definition of "very good," I guess.
Uzomah's best season (16 games) - 43 rec, 439 yards, 3 TDs
That's not "very good" in my book. That's just decent. He was just the 17th TE in the league in yardage that year, behind Chris Herndon (WHO?!)

To me, "very good" for a TE is 600+ yards.

I know many aren't high on him, but I've always had a great feeling about him, ever since he was drafted. Last year was his first as a #1, he has a great start and then gets hurt.

If he stays healthy, I definitely think he'll be at 600 yards, give or take 30.

[KingOfQueens]

(09-16-2021, 09:29 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: give or take 30.

LOL.  Are you being this hilarious unintentionally?

Congrats on the 4 Paychecks through 10/31 too!  What a feather in your cap!

[fredtoast]

(09-16-2021, 09:29 PM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: If he stays healthy, I definitely think he'll be at 600 yards, give or take 30.

Depends on how many passing yards we have a a team.  I was predicting around 4500 in a 17 game season.  If we hit that then Uzo has 600.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-16-2021, 07:45 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Well, he's on pace for 595 right now...

600+ was for 16 games.
Take that up to about 650+ yards with the added game.

I also don't think Uzomah will end up with 17.5 YPR by the end of the season lol.
I can see him getting 450-550 yards this season though with around 5 TDs.
That's solid, just not "very good" in my book.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-17-2021, 02:48 PM)ochocincos Wrote: 600+ was for 16 games.
Take that up to about 650+ yards with the added game.

I also don't think Uzomah will end up with 17.5 YPR by the end of the season lol.
I can see him getting 450-550 yards this season though with around 5 TDs.
That's solid, just not "very good" in my book.

We will see, when the bad weather hits I expect him and Sample and the RB's to be targeted more.

It also seems like Uzo is different in a good way with Burrow. Burrow just throws to the open man, he doesn't target his Receivers
which is what I think can make him so great. That and how he throws into open space while not giving the Defenders a chance.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-17-2021, 06:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: We will see, when the bad weather hits I expect him and Sample and the RB's to be targeted more.

It also seems like Uzo is different in a good way with Burrow. Burrow just throws to the open man, he doesn't target his Receivers
which is what I think can make him so great. That and how he throws into open space while not giving the Defenders a chance.

Maybe I'm wrong about Uzomah. I've been wrong about players many times before.
However, it's very rare for a player to ascend into an upper-tier player in their 7th year.
Uzomah likely is who he is at this point. He'll get decent production and is a good 4th option, but he's likely not going to be amongst the top 10-12 TEs in the league when it comes to receiving production.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-17-2021, 06:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe I'm wrong about Uzomah. I've been wrong about players many times before.
However, it's very rare for a player to ascend into an upper-tier player in their 7th year.
Uzomah likely is who he is at this point. He'll get decent production and is a good 4th option, but he's likely not going to be amongst the top 10-12 TEs in the league when it comes to receiving production.

That is all understandable. I don't think Uzo is the long term answer at TE for damn sure this late in his career. 

I just think he could have his best season this year if he stays healthy.

I will be looking for a playmaking, pass catching, TD machine at TE next Draft early.

[fredtoast]

(09-17-2021, 06:26 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Uzomah likely is who he is at this point. He'll get decent production and is a good 4th option, but he's likely not going to be amongst the top 10-12 TEs in the league when it comes to receiving production.

My point is that with our top 3 WR I don't think ANY TE would be in the top 10 playing for the Bengals.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-18-2021, 12:19 PM)fredtoast Wrote: My point is that with our top 3 WR I don't think ANY TE would be in the top 10 playing for the Bengals.

I don't fully agree with that.
I think a TE in this offense can get 70+ targets. Sample+Uzomah+Carter got 71 total last year.
In TB's offense, Gronk got 77 targets and had 45 receptions for 623 yards, which was 10th in the league.

If the primary TE can stay healthy in this offense, I think he can get enough targets to warrant a Top 10-12 in the league if he is good enough to get production off ~70 targets like Gronk did.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-18-2021, 05:04 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I don't fully agree with that.
I think a TE in this offense can get 70+ targets. Sample+Uzomah+Carter got 71 total last year.
In TB's offense, Gronk got 77 targets and had 45 receptions for 623 yards, which was 10th in the league.

If the primary TE can stay healthy in this offense, I think he can get enough targets to warrant a Top 10-12 in the league if he is good enough to get production off ~70 targets like Gronk did.

70 targets, in a 16 game season would put him around 15th. If you take that spot for receptions and yards you're looking at...

70 tar, 48 rec, 558 yds, 5 tds

2018, CJ was 64/43/439/3

I think he can surpass that easily with Burrow throwing. Even with the weapons at WR.

As silly as it is to extrapolate from 2 games, projected last year he was on pace for 88/64/696/8. Those are top 5 numbers.

[*ochocincos*]

(09-18-2021, 05:53 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: 70 targets, in a 16 game season would put him around 15th. If you take that spot for receptions and yards you're looking at...

70 tar, 48 rec, 558 yds, 5 tds

2018, CJ was 64/43/439/3

I think he can surpass that easily with Burrow throwing. Even with the weapons at WR.

As silly as it is to extrapolate from 2 games, projected last year he was on pace for 88/64/696/8. Those are top 5 numbers.

If he keeps the pace he's on after Game 1, he'll be at 595 yards.
However, it's highly unlikely he has a 17.5 YPR.
His career average is 9.8 YPR.
I do think he'll average more than 2 rec per game though.
Last year he averaged 4.0, and in 2018 he averaged 2.68, so let's speculate 3 per game on average.
That'd put him about 500 yards on the season if he averaged 3 rec per game with 9.8 YPR in 17 games.
That seems realistic to me.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-18-2021, 10:39 PM)ochocincos Wrote: If he keeps the pace he's on after Game 1, he'll be at 595 yards.
However, it's highly unlikely he has a 17.5 YPR.
His career average is 9.8 YPR.
I do think he'll average more than 2 rec per game though.
Last year he averaged 4.0, and in 2018 he averaged 2.68, so let's speculate 3 per game on average.
That'd put him about 500 yards on the season if he averaged 3 rec per game with 9.8 YPR in 17 games.
That seems realistic to me.

I'd only say that i think 9.8 is a bit low with Burrow throwing. In that small sample size last year he was at 10.9. If he stays there on 3 catches a game he can get to 600 yds on the season. With what the WRs should do, that would be more than enough for the position. 

TBH, i think 10.9 might be just a little low. An "average" TE last year had a 11.2-11.4 ypc. At any rate, he shouldn't be at any kind of disadvantage with Burrow throwing and the WRs that will be out there. The potential should be there to put up some pretty good numbers. I think the "zac doesn't know how to use a TE" is a bit overblown. When the play starts, it's up to Burrow to decide who is the best option based on coverage.