Unleashing Joe Burrow

[Fan_in_Kettering]

The Bengals moved on from Andy Dalton and drafted Joe Burrow #1OA in the 2020 NFL Draft. This was a logical move to make considering Dalton wasn’t the best deep ball thrower out there and the Bengals needed someone who could accurately throw over the top of a defense — and Joe Burrow was a perfect fit. Andy Dalton was much better suited to throwing quick slants and throws to the sidelines.

Now the Bengals are in year 2 AD — After Dalton — and things aren’t going so well on offense. It’s obvious Joe Burrow has talent but is it being used correctly? So far I say no. Why would Cincinnati draft Joe, only slightly improve the offensive line, and expect miracles to magically appear?

The offense is trapped in a vicious cycle. Joe Burrow was drafted to throw deep but Zac Taylor has him throwing on short routes to protect him from further injury but he’s still getting hit and sacked at an alarming rate. If the offensive line keeps Joe clean but everyone is covered downfield he takes a sack anyway; the line can’t keep the pocket intact forever. Now Joe has to either take a sack, run with the ball which is not recommended because he is less mobile than before his surgery, or throw the ball away.

The Zac Taylor/Brian Callahan “solution” seems to be getting Joe to get rid of the ball faster, throw shorter passes, and check down a lot. If that’s their plan then why draft Joe Burrow? If the Bengals wanted a mobile quarterback who can throw accurate short passes and throw the ball away then they should have kept Andy Dalton.

My advice, for what it’s worth, is to have Joe Burrow be Joe Burrow. Throw deep often even if balls fall incomplete or get picked off. Why is Zac Taylor so focused on turning Greg Cook into Virgil Carter? If Joe takes a sack, so be it. If he gets picked off on occasion, that’s okay. If he finally learns to throw the ball away that’s progress too.

You don’t buy a Ferrari and only drive it in third gear.

[*PhilHos*]

Quick question for you FiK, but you weren't one of the ones complaining about the number of times Joe Burrow attempted passes last year, were you? Because there were a LOT who were and now many of those same people who were complaining want the Bengals to go back to slinging the ball.

For what it's worth, I would love to go back to slinging the ball all over the field.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(09-24-2021, 09:55 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Quick question for you FiK, but you weren't one of the ones complaining about the number of times Joe Burrow attempted passes last year, were you? Because there were a LOT who were and now many of those same people who were complaining want the Bengals to go back to slinging the ball.

For what it's worth, I would love to go back to slinging the ball all over the field.

Yes I was! I’m not saying pass on every play; far from it.

I’m saying when Joe Burrow DOES drop back to throw he looks deep first. As for the pass vs. run debate I still like to see more runs than passes. Attempting 40+ passes is not advisable unless a team is WAY behind.

“Slinging the ball all over the field” only works when the opposing defense respects the run. If a defense has no idea what’s coming they’ll have to hedge their bets and protect against both pass and run. Against the Bears it was hard to throw because they knew a pass was coming and this brings me to another point: The empty backfield. I don’t think that’s a good fit in Cincinnati at this point.

[TJ528]

(09-24-2021, 09:55 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Quick question for you FiK, but you weren't one of the ones complaining about the number of times Joe Burrow attempted passes last year, were you? Because there were a LOT who were and now many of those same people who were complaining want the Bengals to go back to slinging the ball.

For what it's worth, I would love to go back to slinging the ball all over the field.

Me personally I'd love to run the rock 30-35 times a game, and pass the ball 25-30 times a game.  

Less opportunity for Burrow to get injured and when your paying a RB $12M a year get some use out of that work horse for the funds your paying him.   I do agree with some that Mixon isn't a work horse.  You can't run him 25-30 times a game for 17 games.  I'm not a fan of Perine.  Maybe Evan's could be a good complimentary piece. 

However, if you expect Burrow to sit back there and attempt to throw the ball 40-45 times a game, you're going to get something on him hurt again.  I'm not sure what but the dudes like a statue in the pocket right now.  He has 0 mobility.  He has a sus OL.  So why even put him in that situation. 

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(09-24-2021, 10:09 AM)TJ528 Wrote: Me personally I'd love to run the rock 30-35 times a game, and pass the ball 25-30 times a game.  

Amen. That’s approximately the same formula Ed Orgeron and Joe Brady used at LSU. Yes, Joe Burrow had an amazing final season at LSU but Clyde Edwards-Helaire was always a looming threat to run. That’s why the Tigers were virtually unstoppable.

[t3r3e3]

Gotta have better pass blocking to consistently attempt deeper passes. The Bengals addressed the line in the off-season, albeit in lukewarm fashion. The deep passing game won’t improve significantly until the front office makes a legitimate, significant effort at upgrading the o-line, particularly the interior o-line. The Chiefs and Chargers did just that this past offseason.

[fredtoast]

(09-24-2021, 09:49 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: You don’t buy a Ferrari and only drive it in third gear.

And if you drive your Ferrari as fast as possible even when the brakes are not working properly you end up dead.

[TJ528]

(09-24-2021, 10:39 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And if you drive your Ferrari as fast as possible even when the brakes are not working properly you end up dead.

agree with this Fred.  You can tell Burrows not 100% healthy, mentally or physically.  

So you can't let the dude kill himself by letting him do everything he did pre-knee injury. 

You won't see Burrow run this year nor will you see designed runs like last year. 

Hell for that matter, you barely see Burrow try even to avoid the rush by getting out of the pocket.  

So again, Burrows in 2nd or 3rd gear right now.  He probably won't hit 4th or overdrive until the last half of this season or potentially 2022. 

[fredtoast]

(09-24-2021, 10:18 AM)t3r3e3 Wrote:   The Chiefs and Chargers did just that this past offseason.

Justin Herbert is playing worse than last year while Burrow is playing better.

How is that possible when the ONLY thing that effects a team is the three interior linemen?

[Fan_in_Kettering]

(09-24-2021, 10:39 AM)fredtoast Wrote: And if you drive your Ferrari as fast as possible even when the brakes are not working properly you end up dead.

I see you’ve had experience driving in Italy!

[Whatever]

(09-24-2021, 10:18 AM)t3r3e3 Wrote: Gotta have better pass blocking to consistently attempt deeper passes.  The Bengals addressed the line in the off-season, albeit in lukewarm fashion.  The deep passing game won’t improve significantly until the front office makes a legitimate, significant effort at upgrading the o-line, particularly the interior o-line.  The Chiefs and Chargers did just that this past offseason.

Burrow is completing 33% of his passes over 20 yards this year.  Last year, he was only completing 18%.

[KillerGoose]

(09-24-2021, 10:03 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: Yes I was! I’m not saying pass on every play; far from it.

I’m saying when Joe Burrow DOES drop back to throw he looks deep first. As for the pass vs. run debate I still like to see more runs than passes. Attempting 40+ passes is not advisable unless a team is WAY behind.

“Slinging the ball all over the field” only works when the opposing defense respects the run. If a defense has no idea what’s coming they’ll have to hedge their bets and protect against both pass and run. Against the Bears it was hard to throw because they knew a pass was coming and this brings me to another point: The empty backfield. I don’t think that’s a good fit in Cincinnati at this point.

Attempting more runs than passes is not an ideal way to run the offense. There’s no question that a strong passing offense is more dangerous than a strong running game and this team has (most) of the tools to be a dangerous passing team. For instance, if a team were to average one more NET yard per passing attempt, the expectation would be that this would increase their point differential by 70 points. If a team were to increase their YPC by one yard, you would only see a 52 point increase. These are just high level numbers, but the advantage is clearly in favor of a strong passing offense. The question then becomes if passing is so much better, then why doesn’t everyone just pass all of the time? You don’t want to become one dimensional is the key. You do have to keep defenses guessing and not let them get into their blitz packages because blitzes are HIGHLY correlated to pressure rates and pressure rates are moderately predictive of defensive success.

In today’s NFL, an offense that is passing roughly 55% of the time is probably the strongest bet. I haven’t found numbers on the ideal ration but it will certainly be favorable to passing.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(09-24-2021, 11:40 AM)Whatever Wrote: Burrow is completing 33% of his passes over 20 yards this year.  Last year, he was only completing 18%.

I wonder what changed…

[bengalguy71]

(09-24-2021, 10:50 AM)TJ528 Wrote: agree with this Fred.  You can tell Burrows not 100% healthy, mentally or physically.  

So you can't let the dude kill himself by letting him do everything he did pre-knee injury. 

You won't see Burrow run this year nor will you see designed runs like last year. 

Hell for that matter, you barely see Burrow try even to avoid the rush by getting out of the pocket.  

So again, Burrows in 2nd or 3rd gear right now.  He probably won't hit 4th or overdrive until the last half of this season or potentially 2022. 

Law of averages say, eventually, sacks will get the knee ESPECIALLY if they average 4.5 a game.

Believe this, the thugs this weekend are coming after him tooth and nail!

[Big_Ern]

(09-24-2021, 10:56 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Justin Herbert is playing worse than last year while Burrow is playing better.

How is that possible when the ONLY thing that effects a team is the three interior linemen?

New coaches in SD. Heard they aren't going deep on first or second down much this year while doing it a lot last year. 

[TJ528]

(09-24-2021, 12:55 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: New coaches in SD. Heard they aren't going deep on first or second down much this year while doing it a lot last year. 

Also, the new HC for the LAC is a former DC.  So I'm sure he has a different method of winning games than a coach that's been an OC. 

I can see them being more conservative with Herbert compared to before for this reason. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(09-24-2021, 12:55 PM)Big_Ern Wrote: New coaches in SD. Heard they aren't going deep on first or second down much this year while doing it a lot last year. 

Made a mistake getting rid of Lynn.

[Shake n Blake]

Burrow is a peacock, man. You gotta let him fly.

[NUGDUKWE]

(09-24-2021, 01:10 PM)TJ528 Wrote: Also, the new HC for the LAC is a former DC.  So I'm sure he has a different method of winning games than a coach that's been an OC. 

I can see them being more conservative with Herbert compared to before for this reason. 

Plus Herbert had two if not three touchdowns taken off the board due to penalties against the Cowboys.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-24-2021, 11:40 AM)Whatever Wrote: Burrow is completing 33% of his passes over 20 yards this year.  Last year, he was only completing 18%.

Currently tied for 10th in deep passing quarterback rating, 121.5, and tied for 3rd in deep TDs.