Threads from the Enemy week 4: Jaguars

[JaggedJimmyJay]

https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.php?tid=35102

It's a short week, so we have to check in early on our foes this time. Note that there's only one thread here, and that's not because the Jaguars boards aren't talking about the game.

It's because there aren't Jaguars boards.

There is Jaguars board. One. At least, there's one with people making posts with any regularity. There's a reason this franchise is a London mainstay, though perhaps the Trevor Lawrence effect will change that. So rely on the above forum to get an idea of where Jags fans are at. Understandably some of them are expecting to get creamed on Thursday night, but there is a somewhat surprising air of confidence and/or optimism. I think they are expecting the offense to start clicking soon, and that Lawrence is due a breakout performance. That might be true to some extent. I am sure, however, that they're also falling into the same trap various other fanbases have already fallen into and will throughout this season: assuming Cincinnati week is winnable because the Bengals are the Bengals.

[JaggedJimmyJay]

Jacksonville is bad, but they've been doing some things well:

6th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry rushing at 3.4 (Bengals 5th at 3.3). They've also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns though (5). Get Mixon into goal-to-go situations.

5th in the NFL in yards per carry offensively at 5.1 (Bengals 21st at 3.9). James Robinson is very capable, and Urban Meyer seems to be carrying his collegiate ground philosophy forward decently well so far. Both of these rankings come with large sample sizes too by the standards of three games. The Jaguars are capable of making this game a close one if they are allowed to sustain long drives with tight ball control on the ground.

Is the passing game on both sides where they've been horrible:

30th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt allowed at 9.3 (Bengals 4th at 6.0) with only one takeaway (1 INT, 0 FR). They're 28th in passer rating allowed at 111.6 (Bengals 6th at 84.7) and 30th in completion percentage allowed at 74.3% (Bengals 19th at 68.2%).

30th in the NFL in yards per pass attempt at 5.7 (Bengals 9th at 8.5) and Lawrence leads the NFL in interceptions thrown with 7 (tied with Zach Wilson). They're 31st in passer rating at 60.3 (Bengals 9th at 105.4) and 32nd in completion percentage at 54.2% (Bengals 7th at 70.7%).

Trevor Lawrence has talent oozing from his pores and shouldn't be taken lightly, but his first few games have definitely been worse than Burrow's first few last year. He has struggled mightily.

[*SHRacerX*]

With the unveiling of the ROH and the sure-to-be-crazy home primetime crowd, I think this could be a nice three TD win.

[XenoMorph]

shouldnt over look this one... teams with no wins get more dangerous each week... Its a perfect trap game

That said we should be able to finally win 2 in a row this week

[wcu]

Jacksonville hung with Arizona (one of the darlings of this young season) for three full quarters before the wheels fell off. If we're without Awuzie and Waynes, this could be the perfect "get right" game for Lawrence. Jax's defense isn't as bad as their record indicates.

If we play like we've shown we're capable of playing, I have no doubt we'll win.

[KillerGoose]

No way around it, Jacksonville has been bad through the first three weeks. They’ve been playing like a four win team, roughly. Cincinnati is playing like an 11 win team by my model. Jax has been particularly bad on offense. You can’t overlook any team, but I think Cincinnati takes this one home and comes out 3-1.

[*michaelsean*]

Based on three games Cincy should win at home on a Thursday. That’s as far as I’m willing to go.

[bengalguy71]

Looking past Jags to the Pack? ?

[*jason*]

(09-27-2021, 09:39 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: With the unveiling of the ROH and the sure-to-be-crazy home primetime crowd, I think this could be a nice three TD win.

I think we win, but Thursday night games tend to be sluggish if not sloppy. I think we'd be doin' good to score 3 TDs period.

[*Awful Llama*]

(09-27-2021, 06:33 PM)jason Wrote: I think we win, but Thursday night games tend to be sluggish if not sloppy. I think we'd be doin' good to score 3 TDs period.

Yep, a low-scoring game all around.  13-9 or something to that effect.

[RunKijanaRun]

I live 45 mins from Jax and I consider the Jags to be my #2 team. My fandom will never leave Cincy but I absolutely care about the Jags when it doesn’t directly affect the Bengals.

There are Jags sites out there. Quite a few.

Jax played well Sunday. They’re not deep and they’re not overly talented but they have some good players. Not too dissimilar from the 2020 Bengals, replete with fans dying to replace the HC (Jags fans soured on Urban Frank quickly).

Lawrence shows signs of brilliance but makes a lot of big mistakes. We’ll need to keep a spy on him because he’s not afraid to run and he’s mildly dangerous when he does.

Skill position guys are good. James Robinson is tough. Carlos Hyde can still gash you a little. Chark, Bengals Emeritus Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault are a pretty average group. They’re going to keep looking for ways to get Shenault more involved.

O-Line is below average and they probably won’t have Cam Robinson.

Defensively, they’re a pretty vulnerable group. We should score plenty.

Finally, Josh Lambo, one of the best kickers in football the past few years, has developed a serious case of the yips. Missed 3 of his last 4 XPS and every FG attempt he’s had this year. With a short week, they may not have time to replace him, but if they do it’ll be Aldrick Rojas.

Bengals should win by 10-14. 31-17 is my guess.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Watch out for Laviska man. That dude is a talent.

Not on Chase's level but we cannot overlook the Jags, they are young and have good talented players.

Think we should beat them by a good margin if we just focus on them but this is kind of a trap game scenario.

[RunKijanaRun]

Sorry, totally forgot this important detail.

Jags traded last year’s #10 overall pick, DB CJ Henderson and a 5th round pick to Carolina for Dan Thomas and a 3rd.

Not only was this an awful deal for JAX, but they alienated well over half of the fan base with it because CJ Hendo went to Florida, and as you might imagine, in this area there’s plenty of overlap in those fanbases. Bringing Tebow in to audition at TE then cutting him without a fair chance to succeed left a bad taste in the fans’ mouths already. (And no, I do not think Tebow should have made the team, but as much of a longshot as it was and considering how revered he is in this area, it was just a really dumb idea).

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-27-2021, 09:15 PM)RunKijanaRun Wrote: Sorry, totally forgot this important detail.

Jags traded last year’s #10 overall pick, DB CJ Henderson and a 5th round pick to Carolina for Dan Thomas and a 3rd.

Not only was this an awful deal for JAX, but they alienated well over half of the fan base with it because CJ Hendo went to Florida, and as you might imagine, in this area there’s plenty of overlap in those fanbases. Bringing Tebow in to audition at TE then cutting him without a fair chance to succeed left a bad taste in the fans’ mouths already. (And no, I do not think Tebow should have made the team, but as much of a longshot as it was and considering how revered he is in this area, it was just a really dumb idea).

We better beat their asses, this is revolution talk.

[Murdock2420]

I'm going to predict a Bengals win 27 to 17.

It'll be a struggle early, short week, guys out of their routine and coming off a win so I'm guessing a slow start for the Bengals. Later in the game, the Bengals defense takes advantage of Lawernce being a rookie and his turnovers and sets the Bengals up with a short field or two that gives them the edge.

[Bengal Dude]

We know the Jags are going to be desperate to right the ship. We are coming off of a very emotional game. Zac and Co just need to make sure the team is focused on Jacksonville and not looking past them.

[Whacked]

If we somehow lose this game - that we should very much win - this board is gonna implode - and rightfully so.

We need to take care of business.

[*PhilHos*]

(09-27-2021, 06:33 PM)jason Wrote: I think we win, but Thursday night games tend to be sluggish if not sloppy. I think we'd be doin' good to score 3 TDs period.

Doesn't the home team usually win the Thursday night games with the exceptions generally being when the away team is like a super bowl contender and the home team is like a crappy team?

[*jason*]

(09-29-2021, 11:52 AM)PhilHos Wrote: Doesn't the home team usually win the Thursday night games with the exceptions generally being when the away team is like a super bowl contender and the home team is like a crappy team?

Apparently you weren't at the Cleveland/ Cincinnati (Devon Still's daughter night) Thursday night game in 2014... They beat the brakes off us. It was probably Andy Dalton's worst game in the NFL. The Bengals went on a pretty impressive winning streak after that though.

[Dr.Z]

(09-27-2021, 08:06 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Watch out for Laviska man. That dude is a talent.

Not on Chase's level but we cannot overlook the Jags, they are young and have good talented players.

Think we should beat them by a good margin if we just focus on them but this is kind of a trap game scenario.

He had one of his best games last year against us.   I think around 80-something yards.  Our coverage at LB is better, so hopefully we matchup better with him.   He catches a lot of the TE-type stuff.