Analysts on the 4th and inches on the goal line

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I don’t think road vs. home is relevant. I realize that’s the conventional wisdom, or at least it used to be, but it’s a dying mindset. Math is math regardless of the stadium. I believe 32 out of 32 head coaches go for it there.

[grampahol]

One of life's great mysteries like who decided fruit preserves should be renamed to fruit spread instead..

[KillerGoose]

(10-03-2021, 12:37 PM)EatonFan Wrote: Totally disagree.  You go up by three scores there.  If it's in the middle of the 1st quarter I'd agree, but not with less than a minute, on the road to go up by 17.

It's a matter of which decision gives you a better chance of victory, and is it worth it? If you kick the FG, Jax has a 74% chance of winning. If they go for it and get it, they have an 80% chance of winning. You're going to convert a 4th and 1 ROUGHLY 60% of the time. 

To be honest with you, a 21-0 deficit at halftime should be more than 80% chance of victory. That is a blowout. That game would have been done and over with. It was a good call. Didn't work out, thankfully, but a good call.

[Joelist]

(10-03-2021, 10:47 AM)PV Bengal Wrote: Did you not remember how piss-poor the Bengals had played for the previous 29+minutes? That the Bengals, at that point in time, could've found the correct locker room is questionable. To say nothing of driving 75 yards in 53 seconds for a score.

Had Jax gone up 17-0 or 21-0, the game would have been, effectively, over.

None of that mattered. The Analysts blithely assumed the Bengals had Jax taken the FG would have gotten the ball, kneeled and gone into the half. Plus they did not need 75 yards to get a FG, probably 40-45 does that. 75 is a TD which is not out of the realm of possibility either. What I was saying was the ANALYSTS take was all wrong by assuming the Bengals just kneel and go to the half. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-03-2021, 01:27 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: To be honest with you, a 21-0 deficit at halftime should be more than 80% chance of victory.

Pretty sure I remember the broadcast saying that teams that went into Halftime down by 21+ were on a 104 game losing streak.

[KillerGoose]

(10-04-2021, 01:27 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Pretty sure I remember the broadcast saying that teams that went into Halftime down by 21+ were on a 104 game losing streak.

Yeah, that doesn’t surprise me at all. That’s pretty much game over at that point.

[Luvnit2]

(10-02-2021, 07:01 PM)bfine32 Wrote: What did the Bengals do in the 1st half to make anyone think they would go down and score in about 45 seconds?

I really can't blame Jax for going for the jugular, but I doubt "Well if we kick a FG the Bengals will just score in the 45 seconds that remain"

I believe the Bengals had scored in the 3 prior games before the half may be a reason of concern for Myer. But, it was a no brainer to go for it.

Wilson just made a great pay meeting him in the hole hole and standing him up.

[XenoMorph]

(10-02-2021, 06:10 PM)Joelist Wrote: I have been listening to various sports shows and they keep assuming something - that if Jax takes the FG there it will be 17-0 at the half.

Does no one remember the time on the clock?

They kick the FG and Burrow gets the ball back with both field position AND time needed to get points - either a FG or even a TD if Chase gets behind someone. Why would you assume the Bengals will play the same way they did on their own 1 if for example they are on their own 25?

Based on the 0 points so far... I would have taken that chance to go up 3 scores.

[Murdock2420]

(10-04-2021, 01:10 PM)XenoMorph Wrote: Based on the 0 points so far... I would have taken that chance to go up 3 scores.

Agreed, their defense was doing well.

But, luckily things played out the way they did since any points on that drive would have been an issue in the end. 

[Mike M (the other one)]

(10-03-2021, 12:46 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I don’t think road vs. home is relevant. I realize that’s the conventional wisdom, or at least it used to be, but it’s a dying mindset. Math is math regardless of the stadium. I believe 32 out of 32 head coaches go for it there.

I disagree, being on the road, you should always take the points. The 12th man is not a joke. Good play here and there and the the 12th man is back in it and the players feed off of that

[HarleyDog]

(10-02-2021, 07:00 PM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: I would have gone for it, too.

Easy now. Last time someone told me to go for it, it cost me about $150,000 in child support.