You guys are overestimating the Mixon injury

[*ochocincos*]

(10-08-2021, 05:54 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Yes I understand that and to me it still seems underwhelming.

It's an eye test thing for me.. Mixon seems to get stopped quite often for such an expensive RB... nor does he get used that much as a receiver.

Mixon is 5th on the team in receptions behind Boyd, Chase, Higgins, and Uzomah.
He's on pace for about 40 targets and 30 receptions.
He's no Kamara, McCaffrey, or even Ekeler when it comes to a receiving threat though.

Henry, Kamara, McCaffrey, and Cook get paid the big bucks because they average typically 1600-2000 total yards rushing and receiving.
Mixon's gonna be more likely to be around 1400-1600 total yards, and that's a big reason he makes less than they do.

[WestCoastBengal]

Are the Bengals able to develop Pooka Williams into a back like we had in James Brooks? Both players were/are 5' 10" tall Brooks 180lbs Williams 170lbs is Pooka up to the challenge and can Zack get some plays for him anytime soon? Might be a good time to activate him with Mixon out.

[Sled21]

This is going to be a shootout. I think Burrow and his receivers can keep up with anything GB throws at them, and I think our D has a better chance of shutting their air attack down. CBS Sports has it 36-30 Green Bay. I say 36-30 Bengals.

[Shake n Blake]

People want to see Burrow and co put up big numbers, but balance is why we're winning. Especially in this division. People bring up the Steelers last year, but they flamed out for a reason. The Steelers, Ravens and Browns have always had balance or favored the run in their best seasons.

Same with us. In 2015, we remember a great pass attack and all the weapons, buy we ranked 26th in passing attempts and 7th in rush attempts.

[Sled21]

(10-09-2021, 01:30 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: People want to see Burrow and co put up big numbers, but balance is why we're winning. Especially in this division. People bring up the Steelers last year, but they flamed out for a reason. The Steelers, Ravens and Browns have always had balance or favored the run in their best seasons.

Same with us. In 2015, we remember a great pass attack and all the weapons, buy we ranked 26th in passing attempts and 7th in rush attempts.

We can run the ball as long as it's done effectively. If they can't move the chains on a regular basis, as Burrow said they'll quickly be down 21 nothing. It's up to the defense to shut RoDgers down, otherwise this is going to be a shootout.

[fredtoast]

(10-08-2021, 06:36 PM)ochocincos Wrote: While Mixon is performing well, it's also worth mentioning that plenty of players on cheap/rookie contracts are doing nearly as well too.
Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, Darrell Henderson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, Devin Singletary, Chase Edmonds, Antonio Gibson, and Tony Pollard all have 250+ yards and are on relatively cheap contracts. Austin Ekeler also is above 250 yards and has a relatively low contract compared to other good veteran RBs.

But the theory that you can always find a good RB in later rounds or as an undrafted free agent fails when you look at the hundreds of RBs taken in the later rounds that DO NOT work out.

So basically you end up using a high draft pick on a RB every 4 years or else you take your chances with a lower level pick that will most likely fail.

[fredtoast]

(10-08-2021, 07:01 PM)WestCoastBengal Wrote: Are the Bengals able to develop Pooka Williams into a back like we had in James Brooks? Both players were/are 5' 10" tall Brooks 180lbs Williams 170lbs is Pooka up to the challenge and can Zack get some plays for him anytime soon? Might be a good time to activate him with Mixon out.

Pooka Williams was an undrafted free agent that is not even on our 53 man roster.  I don't see him being anything other than a practice squad player this season.

[*ochocincos*]

(10-09-2021, 10:44 AM)fredtoast Wrote: But the theory that you can always find a good RB in later rounds or as an undrafted free agent fails when you look at the hundreds of RBs taken in the later rounds that DO NOT work out.

So basically you end up using a high draft pick on a RB every 4 years or else you take your chances with a lower level pick that will most likely fail.

I never said you could always find someone, I just stated there are quite a lot of guys on cheap contracts that are also performing well.
Most of these guys are Rd 3-4 picks. I don't consider those "high" draft picks. They are mid-round picks to me. So if I could get a decent starter in Rd 3-4 as a rookie, I like that.

The point was that the Bengals shouldn't feel like it's Mixon or bust.

[fredtoast]

(10-09-2021, 12:52 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I never said you could always find someone, I just stated there are quite a lot of guys on cheap contracts that are also performing well.
Most of these guys are Rd 3-4 picks. I don't consider those "high" draft picks. They are mid-round picks to me. So if I could get a decent starter in Rd 3-4 as a rookie, I like that.

The point was that the Bengals shouldn't feel like it's Mixon or bust.

My point is that if you don't think it is "Mixon or bust" then you have to find a RB as good as Mixon.

In the five years from '16-'20 there were 39 RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Only ONE of those 39 has had a 1100 yard season like Mixon has (twice).  Even when you look at 2nd round picks only 3 of 13 have rushed for more yards than Mixon.

All this talk about how easy it is to find good RBs is not backed up by facts.  If you never sign a RB to a second contract then you are either burning a very high pick every 4 years or else gambling on the long odds of finding a good one after the first round.

Pointing out 6 or 7 decent RBs that were not taken in the first round is meaningless unless you look at the percentages.  Six or seven out of a hundred is not really that impressive.

[*rfaulk34*]

(10-08-2021, 05:54 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Yes I understand that and to me it still seems underwhelming.

It's an eye test thing for me.. Mixon seems to get stopped quite often for such an expensive RB... nor does he get used that much as a receiver.

No disrespect intended...but if it's an eye test for you, you might want to get your vision checked. I say that because Mixon, and i've pointed this out before, is back to using the cut back with Pollack's wide zone scheme. His vision has been very good this year and he's running hard. I can't see how anyone would be anything but pleased with how Mixon has been this year. 

[*Synric*]

(10-08-2021, 05:54 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Yes I understand that and to me it still seems underwhelming.

It's an eye test thing for me.. Mixon seems to get stopped quite often for such an expensive RB... nor does he get used that much as a receiver.

Hes also first in the nfl in broken tackles and 2nd in Yards After Contact. He just hasn't had alot of huge gains but he has been consistent when the ball is in his hands.

[Essex Johnson]

(10-08-2021, 01:13 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Is it just me, or is it not that big of a deal if he's injured this week? Perine and Evans can fill in.

More importantly, this also might be the opportunity Joe and the offense need to air it out more and finally get it clicking on all cylinders on offense.

Don't get me wrong, I'd rather Mixon be playing - but maybe it's time to lean on the passing attack regardless and open up the flood gates. Let's see what the boys got. I truly think that's this teams offensive identity.

Maybe that's just a terrible take, but I really think the pass game can pick up the slack and "break out" this week (like the second half vs the Jags)...we will find out anyway.

Burrow has been protected better and thrown better in games Mixon has been healthy 

[BengalsBong]

(10-08-2021, 02:40 PM)grampahol Wrote: A lot depends on what Perine and Evans are capable of. I'm not as down on Perine as some are and we've not seen what Evans is able to do throughout a full game against good defenders..

I want to see what both of these guys can do a real good test is what they need. We know what we got with Mixon let's find out who our second best option is.

[KillerGoose]

(10-09-2021, 01:30 AM)Shake n Blake Wrote: People want to see Burrow and co put up big numbers, but balance is why we're winning. Especially in this division. People bring up the Steelers last year, but they flamed out for a reason. The Steelers, Ravens and Browns have always had balance or favored the run in their best seasons.

Same with us. In 2015, we remember a great pass attack and all the weapons, buy we ranked 26th in passing attempts and 7th in rush attempts.

Yeah, in 2015 they had a good ratio. The sweet spot IMO is passing around 55% of the time. You can approach 60% if you add in more screens as an extension of the run game. In 2015, Cincinnati passed around 54% of the time (537 drop backs, 467 rush attempts). That’s pretty ideal. Cincinnati is right around that ratio at the moment, though they have the weapons to probably pass a little more and still be successful.

[Shake n Blake]

(10-09-2021, 09:20 AM)Sled21 Wrote: We can run the ball as long as it's done effectively. If they can't move the chains on a regular basis, as Burrow said they'll quickly be down 21 nothing. It's up to the defense to shut RoDgers down, otherwise this is going to be a shootout.

I see no lies. You're right, we have to run effectively, with effectively being the key word. Otherwise, we'll just have to see if Burrow can win a shoot out with Rodgers. Tbh, he might be capable of that.

(10-09-2021, 04:52 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yeah, in 2015 they had a good ratio. The sweet spot IMO is passing around 55% of the time. You can approach 60% if you add in more screens as an extension of the run game. In 2015, Cincinnati passed around 54% of the time (537 drop backs, 467 rush attempts). That’s pretty ideal. Cincinnati is right around that ratio at the moment, though they have the weapons to probably pass a little more and still be successful.

100% agree.

[Tiger Teeth]

(10-08-2021, 03:55 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Some may be underestimating. Dude is the heat to Joe B's cool

^This.  Joe Mixon is a large part of our current record.  He's going to be missed when he's out.  But we can still win.

[HarleyDog]

(10-08-2021, 01:50 PM)QueenCity Wrote: Not sure if I'm jaded against Mixon or the run game but I haven't been impressed.

I'd like to see us open up the passing attack as well... I want Joe flinging that sucker

This is my issue as well. He’s got some stats this year, but something’s off. Not sure what it is but something tells my gut he’s going to let us down. Think we should rotate back more often.

[QueenCity]

(10-09-2021, 07:01 PM)HarleyDog Wrote: This is my issue as well. He’s got some stats this year, but something’s off. Not sure what it is but something tells my gut he’s going to let us down. Think we should rotate back more often.

At least someone else doesn't think I'm crazy.  I'll admit it's hard to argue against the stats everyone throws out supporting Mixon.

Just a gut feeling for me.  That said I'm not rooting against the guy we all want him to succeed. 

[*ochocincos*]

(10-09-2021, 02:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: My point is that if you don't think it is "Mixon or bust" then you have to find a RB as good as Mixon.

In the five years from '16-'20 there were 39 RBs drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds.  Only ONE of those 39 has had a 1100 yard season like Mixon has (twice).  Even when you look at 2nd round picks only 3 of 13 have rushed for more yards than Mixon.

All this talk about how easy it is to find good RBs is not backed up by facts.  If you never sign a RB to a second contract then you are either burning a very high pick every 4 years or else gambling on the long odds of finding a good one after the first round.

Pointing out 6 or 7 decent RBs that were not taken in the first round is meaningless unless you look at the percentages.  Six or seven out of a hundred is not really that impressive.

You don't have to find a RB exactly as good as Mixon necessarily.

Look at it this way:
Would you rather pay $12 mill a year for a RB who gets you 1500 total yards or a RB who gets you 1000-1200 yards for half that (or less)?

Also, most of the RBs I mentioned were taken in Rds 2-4. That seems to be where the glut of the good RB talent comes from.
If I had confidence I could get a guy in Rd 3 or Rd 4 who could get 1000-1200 yards for a fraction of Mixon's cost, I'd consider it, especially if it meant getting an upgrade in FA elsewhere (like OL).