Props to Zac Taylor for Play Calling

[CincinnatiKid]

(11-22-2021, 02:42 PM)GreenCornBengal Wrote: I guess I’m an idiot, how is 4.1 YPC not very good? Sticking with the run is what kept the Bengals in control and sealed the game… funny how fan perspectives differ.

I am mathematically challenged but if you get 4.1 yards a carry that is a touchdown every drive absent a turnover. Am I wrong?

[Essex Johnson]

(11-22-2021, 02:50 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: The efficiency isn’t there at 4.1 YPC. This year, if a team is averaging 4.1 YPC they are the 21st ranked rushing offense. It’s a volume thing. Yes, Mixon had 123 yards and that sounds great. However, he also had 30 carries. I would sure as hell hope he had 120+ yards, otherwise he was just running a lot and not doing much with it (the offensive line share blame here, too).

It worked yesterday, but what I’m saying is that this kind of run/pass discrepancy shouldn’t be applauded as “good, he is learning”. You don’t want to be passing 42% of the time and you don’t want to just keep running, even when it isn’t working. The Bengals ran into some bad fronts yesterday and could’ve benefitted from checking into a pass.

Burrow got praise early for audibles so guess needs criticism for lack of them now

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-22-2021, 06:12 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: They all work together during the week in the game plan but there's only one guy talking into the mic before the play is ran. Zac. 

I don't know, I have seen Callahan talking into the mic before the play.

(11-22-2021, 06:14 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: You have to keep in mind, it's your logic vs thousands of games worth of statistical data that points towards a trend. 

What you talkin' about Rfaulk?

Just saying running the ball keeps the Defense honest so they cannot just pin their ears back and just go after Burrow...

[KillerGoose]

(11-23-2021, 03:19 AM)CincinnatiKid Wrote: I am mathematically challenged but if you get 4.1 yards a carry that is a touchdown every drive absent a turnover. Am I wrong?

If you get 4.1 yards per carry every time, then yeah. A hypothetical RB who gets 4 yards per carry every single run, no more or less, would be the greatest player of all time and break the record for SB wins. It would also be the greatest offense of all time, they'd score every drive.

That isn't how it works in reality, though. In reality, 4.1 YPC can look like...

1 - Zero yards

2 - 1 yard 

3 - 3 yards

4 - 5 yards

5 - (-1) yard

6 - 16 yards

That right there is four yards per carry. What is important to note is that in this six run sequence, four of those runs put the offense in a WORSE position than they were before. A 2nd and 7 is worse than a first and 10. You only get so many drives per game, so drives and downs are a finite resource. If you're averaging 4.1 YPC, you don't want to use your limited resources on something that is objectively worse than the alternative, that will just lead to more punts and less points. Even yesterday with Burrows meh game, he averaged 5.1 yards per attempt (which sucks, by the way). That is 24% better production, per attempt and keep in mind, that was a bad game. An average of 5.1 yards per attempt would far and away be last place in the NFL.

So, especially in the case of Cincinnati where Burrow is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt and the running game is averaging 3.89 yards per carry, it doesn't make sense to be run heavy, because Cincinnati sucks at it. 

[KillerGoose]

(11-23-2021, 02:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: What you talkin' about Rfaulk?

Just saying running the ball keeps the Defense honest so they cannot just pin their ears back and just go after Burrow...

Nailed it. This is the biggest reason why you can't just pass every down. You will let defenses get into their pressure packages and come after your QB. This is why some semblance of 'balance' has to be maintained, and I say balance lightly. Almost half of the teams in the NFL are throwing the ball over 60% of the time, including some strong teams.

Every team in the NFL throws more than they run. Passing IS objectively better, but you still have to be willing to run the ball. 

[*rfaulk34*]

(11-23-2021, 02:49 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: I don't know, I have seen Callahan talking into the mic before the play.


What you talkin' about Rfaulk?

Just saying running the ball keeps the Defense honest so they cannot just pin their ears back and just go after Burrow...

Post #7.

Look at current completion percentages and interception percentages. This isn't the '80s and '90s. Teams pass more, for a higher completion% and lower interception%, using higher percentage, short passes in place of some runs. 

Simply passing more than you run isn't a bad thing. Passing twice as much as you run isn't a good thing.

Running the ball at 4 yds a clip isn't as good as it looks on paper. The "average" team runs it at 4.2 yards per clip currently. A 4 yard average means "half" of your runs are less than 4 yards. The "average" team passes it about 58% of the time. 

So the 60/40 pass/run split (that was mentioned before) is just a smidge higher than what middle of the pack teams are doing right now. 

[Luvnit2]

(11-23-2021, 04:06 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Nailed it. This is the biggest reason why you can't just pass every down. You will let defenses get into their pressure packages and come after your QB. This is why some semblance of 'balance' has to be maintained, and I say balance lightly. Almost half of the teams in the NFL are throwing the ball over 60% of the time, including some strong teams.

Every team in the NFL throws more than they run. Passing IS objectively better, but you still have to be willing to run the ball. 

Also need to be able to run the ball to close out games. How many times who bad running teams stop the clock with incompletions and lose as a result? 

[KillerGoose]

(11-23-2021, 04:14 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Also need to be able to run the ball to close out games. How many times who bad running teams stop the clock with incompletions and lose as a result? 

Yeah, at that point you don't care about efficiency as much. You're running with the purpose of bleeding clock, so that works fine as well. 

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(11-23-2021, 04:06 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Nailed it. This is the biggest reason why you can't just pass every down. You will let defenses get into their pressure packages and come after your QB. This is why some semblance of 'balance' has to be maintained, and I say balance lightly. Almost half of the teams in the NFL are throwing the ball over 60% of the time, including some strong teams.

Every team in the NFL throws more than they run. Passing IS objectively better, but you still have to be willing to run the ball. 

Awesome, well said.

(11-23-2021, 04:09 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: Post #7.

Look at current completion percentages and interception percentages. This isn't the '80s and '90s. Teams pass more, for a higher completion% and lower interception%, using higher percentage, short passes in place of some runs. 

Simply passing more than you run isn't a bad thing. Passing twice as much as you run isn't a good thing.

Running the ball at 4 yds a clip isn't as good as it looks on paper. The "average" team runs it at 4.2 yards per clip currently. A 4 yard average means "half" of your runs are less than 4 yards. The "average" team passes it about 58% of the time. 

So the 60/40 pass/run split (that was mentioned before) is just a smidge higher than what middle of the pack teams are doing right now. 

I agree brother as you know, there is a trend and I would be foolish to not know it.