Bengals Winning Formula on Offense this Year

[Essex Johnson]

We now stand 6-0 I believe when we rush over 24 or more times and pass for less than 30. we have 11 passing tds and 2 Ints in those 6 wins, when we have thrown for 30 or more attempts we have 5 losses, in those losses i believe we have 10 Tds passing and 9 ints.

Many pointed out last year we were just throwing too much and I agree.. this year a balance offense so far is the formula for success, hope ZT keeps that formula going with tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland ahead.

[Whatever]

(12-20-2021, 11:02 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: We now stand 6-0 I believe when we rush over 24 or more times and pass for less than 30.  we have  11 passing tds and 2 Ints in those 6 wins, when we have thrown for 30 or more attempts we have 5 losses, in those losses i believe we have 10 Tds passing and 9 ints.

Many pointed out last year we were just throwing too much and I agree.. this year a balance offense so far is the formula for success, hope ZT keeps that formula going with tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland ahead.

This is a bit of a chicken and egg argument.  Many of the games where we didn't throw a lot were blowouts where we took the air out of the ball with a big lead.  Conversely, most of the games where we threw a lot,we got down early and had to come back.  Every coach would like to have a balanced mix of run/pass, however that's a byproduct of how the game is progressing.  

[WeezyBengal]

(12-20-2021, 11:02 AM)Essex Johnson Wrote: We now stand 6-0 I believe when we rush over 24 or more times and pass for less than 30.  we have  11 passing tds and 2 Ints in those 6 wins, when we have thrown for 30 or more attempts we have 5 losses, in those losses i believe we have 10 Tds passing and 9 ints.

Many pointed out last year we were just throwing too much and I agree.. this year a balance offense so far is the formula for success, hope ZT keeps that formula going with tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland ahead.

I couldn't disagree with this more. 

This offense's identity needs to be an up tempo offense that pushes the ball downfield to take advantage of their dynamic QB and pass catching weapons on offense. This team is best when they are playing from behind and passing the ball and pushing the ball downfield.

I get that the offensive line limits their ability to do this, but that's why its so important to fix it this off-season. This offense gets in a lul when they get hell bent on running the ball 30 times a game. It just kills whatever they are trying to do. 

[SunsetBengal]

The single best strategy is the allowing Joe Burrow to mature and make sound decisions at QB. One thing that stuck out to me yesterday, Joe is learning to not force the ball, take the underneath yardage and play the field position game. It worked, because the Bengals won the war of exchanged punts yesterday.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Bengals are 4-0 this year when Burrow throws for <200 yards. I don't think that's a formula so much as just a result of some shit happening.

[WeezyBengal]

(12-20-2021, 11:42 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals are 4-0 this year when Burrow throws for <200 yards. I don't think that's a formula so much as just a result of some shit happening.

Would love to know how many points/turnovers our defense has given up in those games. Prob the biggest contributing factor. 

[Au165]

(12-20-2021, 11:42 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Bengals are 4-0 this year when Burrow throws for <200 yards. I don't think that's a formula so much as just a result of some shit happening.

All of these types of stats are exactly that a function of other things that people incorrectly identify as the cause. You know what you don't need to do much of when you are winning? Throw the ball. You know what you do a lot of ? Run the ball. It doesn't mean either contributed to the outcome only that they occured during it. Lapham used to love the "when Bengals run x times they win" stat but it really isn't cuasation. 

[KillerGoose]

I think the question becomes "are they winning BECAUSE they are throwing it less, or are they throwing it less BECAUSE they are winning?" I would believe it is the latter, especially in the case of yesterdays game. Looking at total offensive production, the Bengals had 249 yards and 15 points - whatever the offensive formula for that performance is shouldn't be celebrated, in my opinion. Only the Jets, Saints and Steelers produced less yards than Cincinnati this week.

For instance, 118 of Burrow's 492 dropbacks this season have come when the Bengals are ahead by greater than three points. On the flip side of that coin, Cincinnati has ran the ball 349 times this season - 120 of those rushes have come when the Bengals are ahead by 3 points. So, 23% of Burrow's dropbacks and 34% of the Bengals rush attempts have come when they have a > 3 point lead. When the Bengals are ahead by greater than 7 points, Burrow has only dropped back 49 times and the Bengals have rushed the ball 75 times. Having a positive score differential allows you to be more conservative with your playcalling, but that's a rather obvious statement. Here are the Bengals ranks when it comes to QB dropbacks with various point differentials...

> 3 lead - 16th

> 7 lead - 21st

> 10 lead - 19th

I don't think this is what you're saying, necessarily, but throwing the ball LESS and running the ball MORE shouldn't be the way to go, especially not with Burrow and the weapons this team has. Cincinnati is a bottom of the league rushing offense whereas they are a top of the league passing offense. There IS a correlation to more victories when Burrow drops back less but that is only because Cincinnati is becoming more conservative in their playcalling when they build a lead, not because the run game is carrying the team to victory or anything. Here are the Bengals dropbacks, broken down by week...

Week 1 - 31

Week 2 - 33

Week 3 - 19

Week 4 - 33

Week 5 - 43

Week 6 - 36

Week 7 - 37

Week 8 - 38

Week 9 - 45

Week 11 - 34

Week 12 - 28

Week 13 - 46

Week 14 - 40

Week 15 - 29

The 30 attempts number is just a symptom of the Bengals pass-blocking and Burrow scrambling - it obviously isn't some wall that has unlocked the secret to victory. They are calling around 34-35 pass plays per game and attempts are just varying based on that.

[Bengalholic]

A big part of the reason they are 6-0 when Burrow throws less than 30 times, is because the defense has only given up an average of 13 points in those games...which means they didn't have to throw it much.

[TecmoBengals]

(12-20-2021, 12:38 PM)Bengalholic Wrote: A big part of the reason they are 6-0 when Burrow throws less than 30 times, is because the defense only gave up an average of 13 points in those games...which means they didn't have to throw it much.

Without looking it up myself, is there any indicator the Bengals are also significantly winning the time of possession in these games?

[Bengalholic]

(12-20-2021, 12:40 PM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Without looking it up myself, is there any indicator the Bengals are also significantly winning the time of possession in these games?

They won ToP in 3 of the 6.

[sandwedge]

It would be great to smoke teams from beginning to end, but we aren't there yet. I will gladly take wins like this game. Tough, hard fought games, not sexy but shows this team can find ways to win. Personally, I think this helps the teams grow in the future.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(12-20-2021, 01:18 PM)sandwedge Wrote: It would be great to smoke teams from beginning to end, but we aren't there yet. I will gladly take wins like this game. Tough, hard fought games, not sexy but shows this team can find ways to win. Personally, I think this helps the teams grow in the future.

Same way I feel. Us winning a game like yesterdays means more to me than say us blowing a team out.

That is probably the best Defense we will face this year. The difference is honestly we have a good D ourselves and we can be 
explosive on Offense at any time as the Boyd TD shown. Take care of the ball on Offense and we can beat anybody. Hope Joe
is figuring this out, think he is. When Burrow doesn't turn the ball over we are good, real good.

[*PhilHos*]

(12-20-2021, 01:18 PM)sandwedge Wrote: It would be great to smoke teams from beginning to end, but we aren't there yet. I will gladly take wins like this game. Tough, hard fought games, not sexy but shows this team can find ways to win. Personally, I think this helps the teams grow in the future.

Yep, we went from losing most of the close games the last 2 years to finding ways to win the close games this year. Hopefully, we keep getting better even after we win the Super Bowl this year.

[Interceptor]

10 IF BTS > OTS THEN 'W'
20 ELSE 'L'
30 RESET BTS
40 RESET OTS
50 NEXT GAME GO TO 10

;BTS = Bengals Total Score
;OTS = Opponent's Total Score

Yeah, the formula is simple. Rusty but simple. Or something like that.

[KillerGoose]

(12-20-2021, 04:20 PM)Interceptor Wrote: 10 IF BTS > OTS THEN 'W'
20 ELSE 'L'
30 RESET BTS
40 RESET OTS
50 NEXT GAME GO TO 10

;BTS = Bengals Total Score
;OTS = Opponent's Total Score

Yeah, the formula is simple. Rusty but simple. Or something like that.

Oh goodness, using BASIC for this one? 

[ezekiel23]

(12-20-2021, 11:36 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I couldn't disagree with this more. 

This offense's identity needs to be an up tempo offense that pushes the ball downfield to take advantage of their dynamic QB and pass catching weapons on offense. This team is best when they are playing from behind and passing the ball and pushing the ball downfield.

I get that the offensive line limits their ability to do this, but that's why its so important to fix it this off-season. This offense gets in a lul when they get hell bent on running the ball 30 times a game. It just kills whatever they are trying to do. 

Have to agree with Weezy 100%.Joe Burrow is your best player on offense.Put the ball,(the game) in Burrow’s hands.

[Essex Johnson]

(12-20-2021, 11:26 AM)Whatever Wrote: This is a bit of a chicken and egg argument.  Many of the games where we didn't throw a lot were blowouts where we took the air out of the ball with a big lead.  Conversely, most of the games where we threw a lot,we got down early and had to come back.  Every coach would like to have a balanced mix of run/pass, however that's a byproduct of how the game is progressing.  

Still the fact we have 6 wins out of our 8 still indicates it has been effective

[Essex Johnson]

(12-20-2021, 11:36 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I couldn't disagree with this more. 

This offense's identity needs to be an up tempo offense that pushes the ball downfield to take advantage of their dynamic QB and pass catching weapons on offense. This team is best when they are playing from behind and passing the ball and pushing the ball downfield.

I get that the offensive line limits their ability to do this, but that's why its so important to fix it this off-season. This offense gets in a lul when they get hell bent on running the ball 30 times a game. It just kills whatever they are trying to do. 

Well under ZT and Burrow we have yet to win a game behind going into 4th., upcoming from behind has been a struggle,  u might dislike a balance offense but the formula is working for Burrow 11 tds to 2 ints, that is effective 

[WeezyBengal]

(12-20-2021, 06:24 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Still the fact we have 6 wins out of our 8 still indicates it has been effective

No it doesn't.

There are a million things that go on during the games that dictate the outcome. You could find a common stat between any number of wins and make the same claim you are about how the run needs to be our identity. 

I saw Lance Mcalister post that we have like 6 wins where Joe Burrow has under 200 yards passing. Like what are these correlations that people are trying to make? It doesn't make any sense.