Am I crazy for wanting the 4th seed?

[BengalYankee]

(01-05-2022, 01:37 PM)Awful Llama Wrote: Too bad the Texans aren't in it.  We still owe them payback for '11 and '12 and for Watt's just being a complete dickweed.  

Too bad the Jets aren't in it.  We still owe them payback twice. {Too lazy to research the years} 
Too bad the Steelers won't make it. We still owe them payback twice. {Too lazy to research the years}
Too bad the 49ers won't reach SB.  We still owe them payback twice. {Too lazy to research the years}
Too good the Raiders will make it. We still owe them payback twice. {Too lazy to research the years} 

[CJD]

So we got the 4th seed AND avoided the Patriots in the first round.

I know that the Raiders have a scary pass rush and are coming off a hot streak to enter the playoffs, but you still gotta feel good about them in the first round over the Bills, Chargers or Patriots. If we can't beat the Raiders, we probably couldn't beat any of those teams.

Raider -> Titans -> Chiefs is the most likely path to get to the Super Bowl for us, assuming no wild card upsets (which, while likely, is probably a 51% thing, not a 60 or 70% thing). Can we do it? I am not convinced. But I think that those first two rounds are our best, realistic case.

If we had won against the Browns, we'd actually be facing the Patriots and then, if we won, the Chiefs so...that would have sucked ass haha. We really dodged a bullet by resting our starters!

[Truck_1_0_1_]

(01-10-2022, 10:19 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: So we got the 4th seed AND avoided the Patriots in the first round.

I know that the Raiders have a scary pass rush and are coming off a hot streak to enter the playoffs, but you still gotta feel good about them in the first round over the Bills, Chargers or Patriots. If we can't beat the Raiders, we probably couldn't beat any of those teams.

Raider -> Titans -> Chiefs is the most likely path to get to the Super Bowl for us, assuming no wild card upsets (which, while likely, is probably a 51% thing, not a 60 or 70% thing). Can we do it? I am not convinced. But I think that those first two rounds are our best, realistic case.

If we had won against the Browns, we'd actually be facing the Patriots and then, if we won, the Chiefs so...that would have sucked ass haha. We really dodged a bullet by resting our starters!

I will say; we played a very vanilla defense (and offense too, possibly) against the Browns, with no starters playing a single snap (Hilton was the only one close to a starter) and we still held them to 326 yards, 21 points (WITH THEIR STARTERS!) and while Keenum isn't Hayseed, he didn't have too-stellar a game.

We could've beaten them, even with Allen's struggles in the first half. That has me quite content with our D gameplan, especially with everyone rested from this week.

I won't make any predictions or anything of that nature, but with Joe leading us, you can't help but feel positive about the seeding and placement.

Bring 'em on!

[TecmoBengals]

(01-10-2022, 11:35 AM)Truck_1_0_1_ Wrote: I will say; we played a very vanilla defense (and offense too, possibly) against the Browns, with no starters playing a single snap (Hilton was the only one close to a starter) and we still held them to 326 yards, 21 points (WITH THEIR STARTERS!) and while Keenum isn't Hayseed, he didn't have too-stellar a game.

We could've beaten them, even with Allen's struggles in the first half. That has me quite content with our D gameplan, especially with everyone rested from this week.

I won't make any predictions or anything of that nature, but with Joe leading us, you can't help but feel positive about the seeding and placement.

Bring 'em on!

Solid points, the Bengals were in the game yesterday playing our second string and lower depth chart guys against the Browns who had many starters playing. I was also content with yesterday's plan and reminded myself everything was an outlier, it wasn't reflective of any previous games or the upcoming playoff game since the Bengals were playing with completely different personnel.

[BengalYankee]

For those who remember the 2005 Playoffs.

Bill and the Pats tanked their last game at home to a 6 -10 Dolphin team to avoid playing the Steelers in the wild card round and the Pats played the Jags at home in the first round.

By losing to the Dolphins the Pats slid from the 3rd seed to the 4th seed, where the Bengals ended up the 3rd seed and faced the Steelers instead.

Oh for you doubters that say Bill never tanks a game. Not only did he pull Brady, but he pulled his 2nd string QB and played Doug Flutie who was allowed to a drop kick in the game.

So yes, the 4th seed is warranted, sometimes.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=227730

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/320619-steelers-miss-playoffs-the-real-reason-bill-belichick-threw-final-game

[TheCincinnatiKid]

This is now a case of hindsight, but no OP I dont think you were mad.

Once the Chiefs won, we could only be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th seed. Of course, there's some implication between those spots as to how many home games you may play in the playoffs. Every chance the #2 seed stays at home the entire way to the SB. 4th seed very unlikely to play more than 1 home game, so a big difference.

For me, it's the position the Bengals are coming from. Longest playoff win drought in the league, so the focus (for us fans at least) has to be to get that off our back. Pittsburgh are probably a worse team than Oakland, but a team that knows us and regularly beats us (not this season of course). Oakland is a far more 'neutral' game and I think that fares a little better. I also don't think there's really a lot in the difference in quality between the Raiders and Steelers.

This is also Derek Carr's first playoff game. I'm sure he'll handle it fine, but on paper that's preferable to playing playoff veteran Roethlisberger, even in his current state. The Steelers as an organisation know the playoffs inside out as well, but the Raiders have no recent good playoff history.

If we'd have been #2 or #3, we'd have had the Steelers or Patriots. Neither is what they were 5 years ago, but both still have head coaches with big playoff experience, and are organisations who are successful in them. That does count for something. The Raiders do not have that whatsoever.

If we can win one, I'll still be disappointed if we lose in the next round. But there is a HUGE difference between Burrow breaking the curse early in his time here, and us continuing to extend our streak.

I'm not saying we definitely beat the Raiders. They'll be very glad they get us too. But it's our best shot, I'm confident in that belief.

[BengalYankee]

(01-10-2022, 02:54 PM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: This is now a case of hindsight, but no OP I dont think you were mad.

Once the Chiefs won, we could only be the 2nd, 3rd or 4th seed. Of course, there's some implication between those spots as to how many home games you may play in the playoffs. Every chance the #2 seed stays at home the entire way to the SB. 4th seed very unlikely to play more than 1 home game, so a big difference.

For me, it's the position the Bengals are coming from. Longest playoff win drought in the league, so the focus (for us fans at least) has to be to get that off our back. Pittsburgh are probably a worse team than Oakland, but a team that knows us and regularly beats us (not this season of course). Oakland is a far more 'neutral' game and I think that fares a little better. I also don't think there's really a lot in the difference in quality between the Raiders and Steelers.

This is also Derek Carr's first playoff game. I'm sure he'll handle it fine, but on paper that's preferable to playing playoff veteran Roethlisberger, even in his current state. The Steelers as an organisation know the playoffs inside out as well, but the Raiders have no recent good playoff history.

If we'd have been #2 or #3, we'd have had the Steelers or Patriots. Neither is what they were 5 years ago, but both still have head coaches with big playoff experience, and are organisations who are successful in them. That does count for something. The Raiders do not have that whatsoever.

If we can win one, I'll still be disappointed if we lose in the next round. But there is a HUGE difference between Burrow breaking the curse early in his time here, and us continuing to extend our streak.

I'm not saying we definitely beat the Raiders. They'll be very glad they get us too. But it's our best shot, I'm confident in that belief.

Nothing against you friend,

But I see many and I mean many people keep stating Oakland instead of Las Vegas.

It's ok, the Commitment to Excellence, the Just Win Baby team will always be Oakland to me, not Los Angeles, not Las Vegas.

If I weren't a Bengal fan, I'd root for the Nation.

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(01-10-2022, 04:23 PM)BengalYankee Wrote: Nothing against you friend,

But I see many and I mean many people keep stating Oakland instead of Las Vegas.

It's ok, the Commitment to Excellence, the Just Win Baby team will always be Oakland to me, not Los Angeles, not Las Vegas.

If I weren't a Bengal fan, I'd root for the Nation.

Jesus... didn't even realise that until you called me out on it haha.

I guess their Oakland-based fans might be happy with my post.

My apologies Vegas... your team these days!