If Penei was drafted at 5, is this a playoff team?

[Frank Booth]

(01-06-2022, 03:38 PM)RiverRat13 Wrote: How often would he be getting sacked if he was throwing it 42 times a game instead of 32 times, even with Penei Sewell at right guard (now right tackle)?

well burrow is averaging 32 attempts per game this year, and you'd have to assume that if they went o-line, the attempts would be almost near the same, but prob a little lower. Also more quick and short passes since Higgins and Boyd arent the downfield threats that Chase is. (Higgins can go deep for a jump ball though)

so yes logically he wouldve taken less of a beating

[masonbengals fan]

Watching this team evolve/improve over the next few years is going to be so much fun.

After all these years we finally struck gold. 

[Essex Johnson]

(01-06-2022, 02:58 PM)Synric Wrote: Riley Reiff has been better in pass protection than Penei Sewell this season.

Overall Penei Sewell without Ja'Marr Chase would have been a huge downgrade in the passing offense and I don't believe Sewell's run blocking would have made up the difference in Ja'Marr Chase's explosive plays.

We don;t know where he would have played, over the past 2nd half of season, he has been one of the top tackles in the league from what i have read... plus what would we have picked a WR in 2/3 round and who knows how that would have turned out. With the talent we had already and an improved line with Sewell that would have helped both running game and pass protection and our improved defense, i believe we would be going into the final week with a chance to make the playoffs.

[QueenCity]

Don't believe so... likely 2-3 more losses.

Good news is Burrow survived the regular season and hopefully the playoffs. Now we get to go all in with lots of money this off-season on O-Line we hit the jackpot.

[Soonerpeace]

(01-06-2022, 04:04 PM)2MinutesHate Wrote: Agreed.

I think we still make the playoffs with Higgins, Boyd, CJ and Mixon.  Burrow takes less sacks and Mixon has more room to run.  Having said that, I think we made the right choice with Chase IF (and that's a big IF), the front office is able to buy the rest of the pieces in the off-season for the OL and keep Burrow alive.  I'm a little skeptical that Hopkins, Prince, Carman and Adeniji get much better next year.  Reiff is getting old as well.  I wouldn't count on him next year either.

I do think we will be able to have an advantage we haven't had in a long time when it comes to free agency.  Who wouldn't want to play with Burrow and have a shot at a ring?  So, I am hopeful in that regard as long as Burrow survives the playoffs and makes it to next season unhurt.

Jonathan Williams was PFF’s #10 LT. Reiff had been solid in his career. They said picking Chase or Sewell was a tossup. Couldn’t go wrong on either. People need to look at it that way. Picking Sewell or Chase was not much difference. But the reason why they took Chase was because he would contribute more wins early for a team needing momentum to change the losing culture. And… they needed it from the get go.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Murdock2420]

The real issue with this argument (outside of it shouldn't be happening with the team headed to the playoffs) is that there is absolutely no way to know what happens after the pick. Maybe it changes every pick, maybe just the 1st two? Who knows. Maybe they don't go for Carman since they'd have Reiff to move inside and they take Creed instead or they take a different edge or a WR or a CB or who knows.

If the Bengals take Sewell and then get St Brown in 4 then they most likely have the same win total. I'd guess they lose a game or two early while chemistry was built and then win a game or two later that the team struggled in due to Reiff's injury and the OL not getting push for Mixon. St. Brown showed you can get elite WR play outside round one, just like Creed showed you can find elite OL play outside of round one. It's over with, and we won't have a real understanding of how it looks until 3 or 4 years from now since that is about how long it takes to judge a draft class.

Also, this thread is really disrespectful to Hilton, Awuzie, Hendrickson, B.J. Hill, Eli Apple (can't believe I had to type that) and even Burrow to a degree as he is coming back and being healthy. The list of FA's they added, having a healthy Burrow and instead we have a thread that says, the team is basically in the playoffs because of one draft pick. I'd take the FA's they added and a healthy Burrow over any of the 1st rounders they could have had in terms of importance to the team this season.

[LSUfaninTN]

(01-05-2022, 10:54 PM)impactplaya Wrote: I was rewatching the Chase/Sewell Civil War on youtube today. And let me tell ya, Tony Pike gave a
Incredible breakdown on the reason to draft Chase

So I sat and thought what if Sewell goes to Cincy instead?

I dont think this team wins the North.
But I think it's right in hunt till the end, but falls
Short in its pursuit of a playoff birth.

Penei is a up and coming RT, but defenses dont gameplan
For OTs.
Chase has really made this offense dangerous and he is
Making DCs like Spagnulo look stupid

Chase has flat out won several games for the Bengals. Almost single handedly. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a WR so dominant as he’s been in the last few games. It’s truly remarkable what Burrow and Chase are capable of. 

[Whatever]

(01-07-2022, 12:33 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The real issue with this argument (outside of it shouldn't be happening with the team headed to the playoffs) is that there is absolutely no way to know what happens after the pick. Maybe it changes every pick, maybe just the 1st two? Who knows. Maybe they don't go for Carman since they'd have Reiff to move inside and they take Creed instead or they take a different edge or a WR or a CB or who knows.

If the Bengals take Sewell and then get St Brown in 4 then they most likely have the same win total. I'd guess they lose a game or two early while chemistry was built and then win a game or two later that the team struggled in due to Reiff's injury and the OL not getting push for Mixon. St. Brown showed you can get elite WR play outside round one, just like Creed showed you can find elite OL play outside of round one. It's over with, and we won't have a real understanding of how it looks until 3 or 4 years from now since that is about how long it takes to judge a draft class.

FWIW, my take was based on simply swapping Chase and Sewell with everything else playing out the same.  Otherwise, the exercise quickly turns into "If we took Sewell, plus did a complete redraft where we got the best/worst player in each subsequent round..."

I will say that I think people aren't properly valuing Amon-Ra's hypothetical impact on our win total.  When November ended, he only had 353 receiving yards and no TD's.  He went on a tear in December to put up a nice total for a rookie on the season, but his slow start likely dooms any playoff chance we have.  Higgins started slow this year and only had 560 yards and 3 TD's before December.  Chase had 906 TD's and 8TD's in that same span, which is a ton of production to have to replace.  

[*Synric*]

(01-06-2022, 07:35 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: We don;t know where he would have played, over the past 2nd half of season, he has been one of the top tackles in the league from what i have read... plus what would we have picked a WR in 2/3 round and who knows how that would have turned out.  With the talent we had already and an improved line with Sewell that would have helped both running game and pass protection and our improved defense, i believe we would be going into the final week with a chance to make the playoffs.

I argue alot with your post.

We know exactly where Penei Sewell would have played you don't draft an Offensive Tackle #5 Overall and move him to guard. We know Exactly the WRs drafted in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds. Outside of slot receiver Amon-RA St. Brown there wasn't a player close to Ja'Marr Chase and not a single boundary receiver.


Kyle Pitts and Penei Sewell would have been excellent picks for the Bengals and could have been huge down the road.... but for the 2021 season the Bengals would not have made the playoffs without the explosive play of Ja'Marr Chase. His insane production for a rookie receiver is one of the best in NFL History.

[Murdock2420]

(01-07-2022, 01:19 AM)Whatever Wrote: FWIW, my take was based on simply swapping Chase and Sewell with everything else playing out the same.  Otherwise, the exercise quickly turns into "If we took Sewell, plus did a complete redraft where we got the best/worst player in each subsequent round..."

I will say that I think people aren't properly valuing Amon-Ra's hypothetical impact on our win total.  When November ended, he only had 353 receiving yards and no TD's.  He went on a tear in December to put up a nice total for a rookie on the season, but his slow start likely dooms any playoff chance we have.  Higgins started slow this year and only had 560 yards and 3 TD's before December.  Chase had 906 TD's and 8TD's in that same span, which is a ton of production to have to replace.  

He also had Jared Goff as his QB and Jared Goff's back-up while playing for the 2nd worst team in the league with an offense that for the forst 5 or 6 weeks focused on Swift, Williams and Hockenson. Look at the first few games, that offense was like the Browns, run the ball and pass the ball to the TE and the RB. 

This isn't a situation where you can look at stats and go, player A does this same thing in this different setting. It is a totally different offense, with a huge upgrade at QB. First three games he had a total of 6 targets, that's horrible. Hockenson had 8 targets in the first game. The eye test shows the St. Brown has the skill to be an elite WR, and once given the opportunity and the targets he produced. Better QB, he gets started sooner I believe, but again there is no way to be certain. 

[NUGDUKWE]

(01-07-2022, 01:19 AM)Whatever Wrote: FWIW, my take was based on simply swapping Chase and Sewell with everything else playing out the same.  Otherwise, the exercise quickly turns into "If we took Sewell, plus did a complete redraft where we got the best/worst player in each subsequent round..."

I will say that I think people aren't properly valuing Amon-Ra's hypothetical impact on our win total.  When November ended, he only had 353 receiving yards and no TD's.  He went on a tear in December to put up a nice total for a rookie on the season, but his slow start likely dooms any playoff chance we have.  Higgins started slow this year and only had 560 yards and 3 TD's before December.  Chase had 906 TD's and 8TD's in that same span, which is a ton of production to have to replace.  

Amon-Ra did help me win my fantasy championship.

[*Synric*]

Let me put it like this... Ja'Marr Chase is the best Wide Receiver in the AFC in 2021.

[NUGDUKWE]

I don't know if we make the playoffs if we take Sewell or not. I think the Oline is still one of our glaring weaknesses that hopefully we can make some very good moves to shore up in free agency and the draft. I know this isn't a Chase vs Sewell debate but I don't think any of us truly understood the gravity of the Burrow Chase chemistry would have and that has obviously proven that Chase was the absolute perfect pick.

[Murdock2420]

(01-07-2022, 01:26 AM)Synric Wrote: I argue alot with your post.

We know exactly where Penei Sewell would have played you don't draft an Offensive Tackle #5 Overall and move him to guard. We know Exactly the WRs drafted in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds. Outside of slot receiver Amon-RA St. Brown there wasn't a player close to Ja'Marr Chase and not a single boundary receiver.


Kyle Pitts and Penei Sewell would have been excellent picks for the Bengals and could have been huge down the road.... but for the 2021 season the Bengals would not have made the playoffs without the explosive play of Ja'Marr Chase. His insane production for a rookie receiver is one of the best in NFL History.

He has played, slot and boundary for them this year. More snaps have come in the slot, but he has had plenty of success outside for them as well. Difference between here and there, they don't have a Boyd locked in as a slot guy. And, hasn't Chase been moved to the slot lately as he prefers it to allow him to get open??? Oh yeah, that did happen.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(01-07-2022, 01:19 AM)Whatever Wrote: FWIW, my take was based on simply swapping Chase and Sewell with everything else playing out the same.  Otherwise, the exercise quickly turns into "If we took Sewell, plus did a complete redraft where we got the best/worst player in each subsequent round..."

I will say that I think people aren't properly valuing Amon-Ra's hypothetical impact on our win total.  When November ended, he only had 353 receiving yards and no TD's.  He went on a tear in December to put up a nice total for a rookie on the season, but his slow start likely dooms any playoff chance we have.  Higgins started slow this year and only had 560 yards and 3 TD's before December.  Chase had 906 TD's and 8TD's in that same span, which is a ton of production to have to replace.  

It also took St. Brown 109 targets to get to that 800 yds 4 Td’s, too (which I’d hardly call “elite WR play”). And he wouldn’t have gotten that here playing with both Tee and Boyd. Chase got the targets he did because - - well - he’s Ja’Marr Chase. The Lions literally had no one else at WR. The next two guys target-wise are a TE and a RB. You add in the fact that St. Brown only averaged 9.8 Y/R and you’re talking about an absolutely massive drop off in our ability to push the ball down the field.

[*Synric*]

(01-07-2022, 01:49 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: He has played, slot and boundary for them this year. More snaps have come in the slot, but he has had plenty of success outside for them as well. Difference between here and there, they don't have a Boyd locked in as a slot guy. And, hasn't Chase been moved to the slot lately as he prefers it to allow him to get open??? Oh yeah, that did happen.

Stop.

Brown is a slot(Y) that gets a percentage of (Z) off man/zone coverage reps.

Chase is an primarily boundary X receiver.


These are 2 different wide receivers. 

[Whatever]

(01-07-2022, 01:31 AM)Murdock2420 Wrote: He also had Jared Goff as his QB and Jared Goff's back-up while playing for the 2nd worst team in the league with an offense that for the forst 5 or 6 weeks focused on Swift, Williams and Hockenson. Look at the first few games, that offense was like the Browns, run the ball and pass the ball to the TE and the RB. 

This isn't a situation where you can look at stats and go, player A does this same thing in this different setting. It is a totally different offense, with a huge upgrade at QB.  First three games he had a total of 6 targets, that's horrible. Hockenson had 8 targets in the first game. The eye test shows the St. Brown has the skill to be an elite WR, and once given the opportunity and the targets he produced. Better QB, he gets started sooner I believe, but again there is no way to be certain. 

Would he do exactly that here?  No.  But that's the data we have to try and determine what he would do.  He struggled early in the year.  Maybe he does better here, but how much better?  Maybe he does worse.  He honestly doesn't seem like a scheme fit at all.  Chase averages 13 targeted air yards, Higgins 12.1, and Boyd 8.  St. Brown is at 7.1.  That's about as dink and dunk as it gets for an offense that wants to push the ball downfield.  

[Big_Ern]

Thank God the niners traded up

[Essex Johnson]

(01-07-2022, 01:26 AM)Synric Wrote: I argue alot with your post.

We know exactly where Penei Sewell would have played you don't draft an Offensive Tackle #5 Overall and move him to guard. We know Exactly the WRs drafted in the 2nd 3rd and 4th rounds. Outside of slot receiver Amon-RA St. Brown there wasn't a player close to Ja'Marr Chase and not a single boundary receiver.


Kyle Pitts and Penei Sewell would have been excellent picks for the Bengals and could have been huge down the road.... but for the 2021 season the Bengals would not have made the playoffs without the explosive play of Ja'Marr Chase. His insane production for a rookie receiver is one of the best in NFL History.

I never said he would not play  tackle,  but maybe they kick a tackle to guard, the point is he would have helped this team also and yes we the way things turned out with te improvement of defense, burrow, mixon healthy we would be in the hunt for playoffs but not sitting starters and having the division lo locked up.

Under the logic if Chase puts us a playoff team we would ,  I guess if Chase is out next week and we had Sewell, we would have less than 50% chance of winning ..which I would disagree with.