Divisional Round Mock

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 12:05 AM)JoyrideJoe15 Wrote: Y r we signing guys who are back ups that may have potential to start!? Sign starters.

Those guys are starters.
The only reason it comes off as possibly not starting is based on whether team wants to still start Pratt (has his moments but disappears at times), start the rookie 1st round OT (if he's ready), and/or start one of Adeniji/Carman at RG (I'd go with Carman out of the two but he's also inconsistent).

[Interceptor]

Linderbaum is gonna be gone.
Not sure if we might be able to grab EkWonu, Green, or Kinnard and then fill in the remaining space with a veteran.

Or we can get a FB like Turley. He protects his QB really well. 
Here is his recruitment film:

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 12:02 AM)JoyrideJoe15 Wrote: The drafts ok but the FA is a hard no.  Money on Mitchell trubisky?  No sir.  Jose jewel is a pointless addition.  He is no upgrade.  This oline is the worst in the league and u wanna bring in Germaine ifedi?   I’d go on but I don’t wanna be negative.  Not for me.

It's only $3 mill, but I get it. I still think he's better than Brandon Allen.

Jewell is arguably an upgrade over Pratt. I'd prefer DeVondre Campbell, but some others have convinced me he'd cost too much and it isn't worth spending that much on a LB in the Bengals scheme.

Germain Ifedi is better than you give credit for. His value also lies in being able to play solid at both RG and RT. He's not a stud, but he's better than Adeniji/Carman at RG and would be a better RT over what the Bengals currently have. I'd prefer someone like Morgan Moses but some others on the board have convinced me that he could get re-signed by NYJ.
PFF has Ifedi as a better pass blocking RT this year than Riley Reiff, FWIW.

Are these players the studs I'd prefer? No.
But the Bengals only have so much cap and so many draft picks.
If the Bengals are going to re-sign a handful of their starters, the remaining cap is going to dwindle, so the Bengals might not upgrade the OL as much as we'd like.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 10:45 AM)Interceptor Wrote: Linderbaum is gonna be gone.
Not sure if we might be able to grab EkWonu, Green, or Kinnard and then fill in the remaining space with a veteran.

Or we can get a FB like Turley. He protects his QB really well. 
Here is his recruitment film:

Are you thinking of Kinnard as a RG or RT?
I think he's a better fit at RG.

[Interceptor]

(01-24-2022, 10:52 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Are you thinking of Kinnard as a RG or RT?
I think he's a better fit at RG.

Either way. Flexibility is good. Then we fill the remaining right side position with a veteran. I would feel much better with a veteran on the line, especially one from an older playoff team.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 10:57 AM)Interceptor Wrote: Either way. Flexibility is good. Then we fill the remaining right side position with a veteran. I would feel much better with a veteran on the line, especially one from an older playoff team.

I'd rather go after Trevor Penning or Nicholas Petit-Frere if wanting a RT in the draft.
Get a guy in FA who can play RG if looking to upgrade that spot, IMO.
Ifedi can play RG and also has RT flexibility. He started most of 2020 at RG before moving over to RT due to need.
Every year since 2017 he's had a 60+ pass blocking PFF rating.
I also really would love to add someone like James Daniels, who has been really good at both OG positions.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-21-2022, 07:45 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That wasn't talk from the team, IIRC.
That was what fans just thought when he was drafted.

https://www.bengals.com/news/find-out-what-zac-taylor-frank-pollack-and-jackson-carman-said-after-round-two


Straight from the horse's mouth.



Do you see him playing OT eventually?
"Absolutely. He's done it for a long time there at a very high level. He has great athleticism. He's shown he can do it against really good competition. You can turn on the tape and see him do it against a bunch of guys that went in the first round of the draft the last few years. He held his own, and we certainly feel like there's a lot of upside with Jackson."

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 01:08 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: https://www.bengals.com/news/find-out-what-zac-taylor-frank-pollack-and-jackson-carman-said-after-round-two


Straight from the horse's mouth.



Do you see him playing OT eventually?
"Absolutely. He's done it for a long time there at a very high level. He has great athleticism. He's shown he can do it against really good competition. You can turn on the tape and see him do it against a bunch of guys that went in the first round of the draft the last few years. He held his own, and we certainly feel like there's a lot of upside with Jackson."

Interesting. I must have missed it or forgotten it.
I don't frequent bengals.com much nowadays.

I do find it interesting if they do plan to have him shift to RT eventually though. They should have put him at RT as soon as Adeniji took over at RG then.
We'll have to see what they do with him.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-24-2022, 05:19 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Interesting. I must have missed it or forgotten it.
I don't frequent bengals.com much nowadays.

I do find it interesting if they do plan to have him shift to RT eventually though. They should have put him at RT as soon as Adeniji took over at RG then.
We'll have to see what they do with him.

I think they put him at RG because they signed Reiff and they wanted to get their best 5 on the field.  I just hope they decide where they are going to play him and stick with it.  There's nothing worse than moving a guy around and having him fail because he never really gets comfortable at one spot.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-24-2022, 06:22 PM)Hammerstripes Wrote: I think they put him at RG because they signed Reiff and they wanted to get their best 5 on the field.  I just hope they decide where they are going to play him and stick with it.  There's nothing worse than moving a guy around and having him fail because he never really gets comfortable at one spot.

Yea I know why they put him at RG originally.
They signed Reiff and wanted to still get Carman some playing time.
But as soon as Adeniji took over the RG spot, Carman should have been moved to RT full-time to focus on that.
From my understanding, he's still working at OG since being benched, not grooming at RT.

[Hammerstripes]

(01-24-2022, 06:25 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea I know why they put him at RG originally.
They signed Reiff and wanted to still get Carman some playing time.
But as soon as Adeniji took over the RG spot, Carman should have been moved to RT full-time to focus on that.
From my understanding, he's still working at OG since being benched, not grooming at RT.

That's probably because of the lack of depth at RG.  XSF was out most of the year and the only 2 options were Adenji and Carman.

[Whatever]

(01-21-2022, 12:41 PM)ochocincos Wrote: I put in two 4th round comps - one for Carl Lawson (expected) and one for John Ross (rumored to still happen even though he didn't play 25+% of Giants offensive snaps).

2022 NFL FA and Draft:
Estimated cap - $63 mill
Release Trae Waynes +$11 mill = $74 mill

Franchise Tag - Jessie Bates - $13 mill

Re-sign:
Quinton Spain - $10 mill APY - Need to keep the best OG the team has.

CJ Uzomah - $6 mill APY - Uzomah did well enough given the opportunities. He's also a leader of the team, and they will want to keep him.

BJ Hill - $8 mill APY - I expect Hill will be cheaper to retain than Ogunjobi, and Hill was actually the better run defender. Hill can be the starter next to Reader.

Eli Apple - $5 mill APY - Apple has really come along this season. Bengals should be able to cut Waynes, re-sign Apple, and still have some money left over. Apple can be the starter opposite Awuzie.

Mike Thomas - $1 mill - Taylor seems to like Thomas. He has familiarity with the playbook and plays ST, so there's value there.
--------------------------------------------
$31 mill remaining

FA:
Josey Jewell, LB DEN - 2 years, $10 mill ($5 mill APY) - Jewell is a well-rounded LB who I liked coming out of Iowa back in 2018. He's solid at about everything, but not great at any one thing. 2020 was his best year, putting up 113 tackles, 4 PDs, and 2 sacks. Jewell takes Evans' spot on the roster but is used as the 3rd LB, ahead of ADG and Bailey. Jewell takes over Pratt's starting role in 2023 if Pratt departs in FA.

Germain Ifedi, OT/OG CHI - 2 years, $12 mill ($6 mill APY) - A guy who has bounced between starting RT and RG in his 6 seasons. He's been ok as a starter. I think he could be a valuable addition as a versatile veteran who probably won't get a lot of attention in FA. I see him competing for a starting spot but a valuable veteran backup at minimum. He slots in as the new starting RT going into the draft.

Josh Reynolds, WR DET - 2 years, $4 mill ($2 mill APY) - Reynolds is a perfect WR3/4 in an offense, and he has familiarity with Taylor from their time with the Rams. Bring in Reynolds to be the new WR4 to replace Tate.

Mitchell Trubisky, QB BUF - 2 years, $6 mill ($3 mill APY) - Burrow's new backup. Upgrade over Allen, IMO.

Casey Hayward, CB LVR - 1 year, $4 mill - Depth veteran CB. Was solid for the Raiders, but he's older. Only signed with LVR for 1 year, $2.5 mill, so $4 mill should be enough to acquire him. If Hayward goes higher, get a different quality vet for this price or lower. There should be plenty of options.
------------------------------------
$11 mill remaining - Enough to cover the draft and have a bit left over.

Draft:
1) Trevor Penning, OT UNI (6'7", 321 lb) - I'm always nervous about FCS players transitioning well to the NFL, but from what I've read and seen, I think Penning can succeed. He has ideal size and length, plus he's dominated nearly everyone he's gone up against. He's freakishly strong and also athletic enough that he should be fine in the Bengals' scheme. Penning comes in to compete with Ifedi as the starting RT.

2) Phidarian Mathis, DT Alabama (6'4', 312 lb) - Versatile DL who has ideal size to play DT in the NFL. He's well-rounded, so he can not only rush the passer but also defend the run. His combination of length and strength should allow him to keep the opponent off him and drive him back into the pocket.

3) Coby Bryant, CB UC (6'2", 185 lb) - I think that the Bengals will try to retain Apple and probably sign another veteran CB after letting Waynes go. With that said, they could use a young guy to build quality depth and groom into a future starter. I like Bryant's fit in Anarumo's scheme. His skill set and size translate very well outside too.

4) Jake Ferguson, TE Wisconsin (6'5", 244 lb) - Well-rounded TE who can block but also underrated as a pass catcher. Across 4 seasons in Wisconsin's run-heavy scheme, Ferguson put up 1618 yards and 13 TDs on 145 receptions (11.2 YPR). I see him similar to someone like Dalton Schultz and an improvement in the passing game over Sample.

4comp1) Calvin Austin III, WR/PR Memphis (5'9", 162 lb) - This dude is small, but he's electric. Memphis used him all kinds of ways, and he delivered. He especially thrives with YAC. Austin is also a good PR, which the Bengals need. I see Austin as the 5th WR activated on gamedays, serving as the team's PR and coming into the offense occasionally for gadget plays and in the slot.

4comp2) Sterling Weatherford, SS Miami University (6'4", 215 lb) - Weatherford is a bigger Safety who can cover TEs due to his size and length. He could play some nickel LB if the Bengals wished to use him for that. Weatherford also could be a stud on ST, which is valuable when picking guys on Day 3.

5) Ty Chandler, RB/KR UNC (5'11", 210 lb) - Productive RB in both the SEC (Tennessee) and ACC (UNC). Played more in a RBBC with the Vols, but he got lead back duties at UNC. He had a handful of receptions each season (10-19 each season). He looks to have solid speed, which would help add some explosion to the Bengals offense. It also helps that he has plenty of KR experience - 38 KRs for 850 yards (22.4 YPR) and 1 TD.

6) Chase Lucas, CB Arizona St (6'0", 185 lb) - Lucas is a guy I liked last draft season but he decided to return to college. He still is projected to be a Rd 5-7 pick, so I'll put him where I had him last year - 6th round. I like Lucas as a depth guy initially that could eventually develop into a starter potentially.

7) Nick Ford, OL Utah (6'5", 315 lb) - Extremely versatile OL who has played every single position in college. Ford was voted All-Pac-12 twice. I've seen multiple draft sites say his best position in the NFL will probably be center. He's projected so low because he's been moved around so much in college that he hasn't had the time to develop at one position. I think he's a perfect candidate to take a gamble on late and see if he can turn into something if put at one position. Ford would make the perfect PS candidate if not making the last OL spot on the 53-person roster.

This one is pretty rough.  The Bengals FO would get murdered for that FA.  That is basically a classic Marvin Lewis-era FA.  We go into FA with the 4th most cap space in the league and overpay to keep a bunch of our own mediocre/bad starters(Bates, Spain) and quality backups(Hill) and then dumpster dive for replacement level starters(Ifedi) and other team's backups that we're going to try to sell as upgrades(Jewell).  It's very difficult for the team to sell the fanbase on going all in for a SB after making it to(at least) the AFCCG with those moves.  You only have two guys in that FA that have a chance to start, both would be in dogfights to win a starting job, and one(Ifedi) would be a downgrade from the guy he replaced (Reiff).  

The focus on this off-season needs to be getting protection for Joe Burrow and the only real chance for any kind of improvement is an FCS T comes in and can immediately adjust to the pro game and play at a high level and allow our replacement level RT to move to RG.  

You can't pay a $13 mil FT for a S who is having the worst year of his career and just hope he gets better.

If the difference between Ogunjobi and Hill is $2 mil, you keep Ogunjobi.  If you can get Hill in the $3-5 mil range, then you may consider it.

Spain has been solid, but his play has slid since the beginning of the year and he's simply not worth $10 mil/year after one good season when he was begging for a prove it this year.

Jewell has been a backup 3 out of 4 years and he's going to unseat a 3 year starter going into a contract year?  

Ifedi is a downgrade from Reiff.  We're going to go into the draft worse on paper on the OL than this year?

Reynolds fell to #6 on the Titans depth chart and got cut at his request because he was convinced he could be a starter.  He's not coming here to sit behind Chase, Tee, and Boyd.  He will go to some team with absolute garbage at WR(likely resign with the Lions) where he can play.

Heyward-Between Bates and Heyward, that's $17 mil wrapped up in DB's on one year deals.  That's over 1/4 of our available cap space tied up in DB's that will be FA's again next year.  You can get a top tier OL(Brown, Scherff, Armstead) for that kind of '22 cap hit.  

I like the draft, except for the idea that Penning can start year 1, but the FA is really tough to get around.

[CloeHokie]

(01-27-2022, 01:43 AM)Whatever Wrote: This one is pretty rough.  The Bengals FO would get murdered for that FA.  That is basically a classic Marvin Lewis-era FA.  We go into FA with the 4th most cap space in the league and overpay to keep a bunch of our own mediocre/bad starters(Bates, Spain) and quality backups(Hill) and then dumpster dive for replacement level starters(Ifedi) and other team's backups that we're going to try to sell as upgrades(Jewell).  It's very difficult for the team to sell the fanbase on going all in for a SB after making it to(at least) the AFCCG with those moves.  You only have two guys in that FA that have a chance to start, both would be in dogfights to win a starting job, and one(Ifedi) would be a downgrade from the guy he replaced (Reiff).  

The focus on this off-season needs to be getting protection for Joe Burrow and the only real chance for any kind of improvement is an FCS T comes in and can immediately adjust to the pro game and play at a high level and allow our replacement level RT to move to RG.  

You can't pay a $13 mil FT for a S who is having the worst year of his career and just hope he gets better.

If the difference between Ogunjobi and Hill is $2 mil, you keep Ogunjobi.  If you can get Hill in the $3-5 mil range, then you may consider it.

Spain has been solid, but his play has slid since the beginning of the year and he's simply not worth $10 mil/year after one good season when he was begging for a prove it this year.

Jewell has been a backup 3 out of 4 years and he's going to unseat a 3 year starter going into a contract year?  

Ifedi is a downgrade from Reiff.  We're going to go into the draft worse on paper on the OL than this year?

Reynolds fell to #6 on the Titans depth chart and got cut at his request because he was convinced he could be a starter.  He's not coming here to sit behind Chase, Tee, and Boyd.  He will go to some team with absolute garbage at WR(likely resign with the Lions) where he can play.

Heyward-Between Bates and Heyward, that's $17 mil wrapped up in DB's on one year deals.  That's over 1/4 of our available cap space tied up in DB's that will be FA's again next year.  You can get a top tier OL(Brown, Scherff, Armstead) for that kind of '22 cap hit.  

I like the draft, except for the idea that Penning can start year 1, but the FA is really tough to get around.

You lost me at Bates is a mediocre/bad player. No he isn't. He's a very good 24 year old safely. 

[JoyrideJoe15]

(01-24-2022, 10:36 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Those guys are starters.
The only reason it comes off as possibly not starting is based on whether team wants to still start Pratt (has his moments but disappears at times), start the rookie 1st round OT (if he's ready), and/or start one of Adeniji/Carman at RG (I'd go with Carman out of the two but he's also inconsistent).

Yea no. Oh and no. Pratt isn’t a starter he’s played horrible this year. Ifedi is not good but better than what we have. That’s not the right mindset bro. Jose jewel absolutely not. Mitchell trubisky money on that guy absolutely not. The mock with this FA would push us back not forward. “Please god no”-Michael Scott.

[JoyrideJoe15]

(01-27-2022, 01:43 AM)Whatever Wrote: This one is pretty rough.  The Bengals FO would get murdered for that FA.  That is basically a classic Marvin Lewis-era FA.  We go into FA with the 4th most cap space in the league and overpay to keep a bunch of our own mediocre/bad starters(Bates, Spain) and quality backups(Hill) and then dumpster dive for replacement level starters(Ifedi) and other team's backups that we're going to try to sell as upgrades(Jewell).  It's very difficult for the team to sell the fanbase on going all in for a SB after making it to(at least) the AFCCG with those moves.  You only have two guys in that FA that have a chance to start, both would be in dogfights to win a starting job, and one(Ifedi) would be a downgrade from the guy he replaced (Reiff).  

The focus on this off-season needs to be getting protection for Joe Burrow and the only real chance for any kind of improvement is an FCS T comes in and can immediately adjust to the pro game and play at a high level and allow our replacement level RT to move to RG.  

You can't pay a $13 mil FT for a S who is having the worst year of his career and just hope he gets better.

If the difference between Ogunjobi and Hill is $2 mil, you keep Ogunjobi.  If you can get Hill in the $3-5 mil range, then you may consider it.

Spain has been solid, but his play has slid since the beginning of the year and he's simply not worth $10 mil/year after one good season when he was begging for a prove it this year.

Jewell has been a backup 3 out of 4 years and he's going to unseat a 3 year starter going into a contract year?  

Ifedi is a downgrade from Reiff.  We're going to go into the draft worse on paper on the OL than this year?

Reynolds fell to #6 on the Titans depth chart and got cut at his request because he was convinced he could be a starter.  He's not coming here to sit behind Chase, Tee, and Boyd.  He will go to some team with absolute garbage at WR(likely resign with the Lions) where he can play.

Heyward-Between Bates and Heyward, that's $17 mil wrapped up in DB's on one year deals.  That's over 1/4 of our available cap space tied up in DB's that will be FA's again next year.  You can get a top tier OL(Brown, Scherff, Armstead) for that kind of '22 cap hit.  

I like the draft, except for the idea that Penning can start year 1, but the FA is really tough to get around.

A lot to like in this especially how bad the FA would be and it resembling Marvin Lewis however your evaluation of Bates and Spain being mediocre bad is well bad. Spain the 9th rated guard in the league lol and Bates had a down first half of the season but he started to come back towards the end and now in the playoffs on the biggest stage our best players are bailing out which is what u expect from big time players....like Bates. I don’t know if I wanna give him 13 a year but to say things like u hope he gets better...the guy was a pro bowl safety and rated number 1 last year by pff. The guy is good and done it for a while he just started slow this year. But regardless of all that I agree with u on this offseason approach. Not good. Very marv like which didn’t bring in wins that mattered.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-27-2022, 11:05 AM)JoyrideJoe15 Wrote: Yea no.  Oh and no.  Pratt isn’t a starter he’s played horrible this year.  Ifedi is not good but better than what we have.  That’s not the right mindset bro.  Jose jewel absolutely not.  Mitchell trubisky money on that guy absolutely not.  The mock with this FA would push us back not forward.  “Please god no”-Michael Scott.

How would this "push us back"?
It literally doesn't go backward on any position.

As you said, Ifedi is better than what they have.

If you say Pratt isn't a starter and horrible, then why would you say no to Jewell?
You think Jewell is worse than Pratt?
If so, how?
And who are you going to get that's going to be a big upgrade for $4 mill or less?

Funny also how you say no to Mitchell Trubisky. Do you think he's worse than Brandon Allen?
If so, what gives you indication that's true?
Trubisky has had WAY more success in the NFL than Allen.
He's also Josh Allen's backup.
If the Bills (who have been great the past two years) were willing to have him as Allen's backup, why isn't he good enough to back up Burrow?

[Whatever]

(01-27-2022, 09:34 AM)CloeHokie Wrote: You lost me at Bates is a mediocre/bad player. No he isn't. He's a very good 24 year old safely. 

Bates has allowed an 80% completion percentage and a 122.0 passer rating when targeted this year.  That is the 16th worst Passer Rating Allowed in the league and that's counting all positions, including LB's and CB's.  That's bad.

The $13 mil FT represents elite level APY.  Bates has been elite only one of his four years in the league.  That's basically a 25% chance at a reasonable return on investment.  

[*ochocincos*]

Some of you are overly critical of FA without considering that the Bengals don't have as much to work with as some may think.
They don't have the ability to sign studs at every weak position.
They will keep at least $10 mill in cap space going into the draft too.

There are some players in FA that I probably put too much money toward, but I tried to go with what I think they'll get offered elsewhere.
One source I used was https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-free-agent-rankings-free-agency
This has the following players and values:
Casey Hayward - $6.5 mill
Josey Jewell - $6 mill
BJ Hill - $8.5 mill per year
Germain Ifedi - $6.5 mill per year

I actually went somewhat lower on all those, but not by much because I could think some team could offer around that.

They have Bates as getting Franchise Tag, which is expected to be $13 mill for safety this coming year.

The other FAs are not on the list, so I'm going based on what they made this year and then increasing X amount based on this year's performance and circumstance.

As for someone saying they'd rather pay an extra $2 mill to keep Ogunjobi over Hill...why?
Ogunjobi had just 4 more QB hits and 1.5 more sacks than Hill, but Hill is by far the better run defender.
It's worth also noting that Ogunjobi had 493 pass rush snaps whereas Hill only had 326. That's over 50% more.
If Hill had the same as Ogunjobi had, there's a solid chance he'd have as many (or more) sacks and hits than Ogunjobi.

[*ochocincos*]

(01-27-2022, 11:40 AM)Whatever Wrote: Bates has allowed an 80% completion percentage and a 122.0 passer rating when targeted this year.  That is the 16th worst Passer Rating Allowed in the league and that's counting all positions, including LB's and CB's.  That's bad.

The $13 mil FT represents elite level APY.  Bates has been elite only one of his four years in the league.  That's basically a 25% chance at a reasonable return on investment.  

I get that, but it's the Bengals.
They were willing to tag over-the-hill AJ Green for $18.1 mill.

Personally, I'd rather use that $13 mill on a dominant OL or two B-tier guys and then just draft a new FS, but I tried to think like the Bengals might.

[Whatever]

(01-27-2022, 11:50 AM)ochocincos Wrote: I get that, but it's the Bengals.
They were willing to tag over-the-hill AJ Green for $18.1 mill.

Personally, I'd rather use that $13 mill on a dominant OL or two B-tier guys and then just draft a new FS, but I tried to think like the Bengals might.

That's fair.