Interesting QB stat this postseason

[Bengalholic]

In head to head matchups this postseason, the QBs who had the higher yards per attempt during the regular season are 9-1. The only loss was by a rookie QB.

Burrow 8.9 d Carr 7.7
Mahomes 7.4 d Roethlisberger 6.2
Allen 6.8 d Jones 7.3
Stafford 8.1 d Murray 7.9 
Garoppolo 8.6 d Prescott 7.5
Brady 7.4 d Hurts 7.3

Burrow 8.9 d Tannehill 7.0
Mahomes 7.4 d Allen 6.8
Stafford 8.1 d Brady 7.4
Garoppolo 8.6 d Rodgers 7.7

You don't find the same percentage of outcomes using other stats like comp %, TD passes or even QB rating...where 3 of the top 5 rated going into the playoffs lost. Just thought it was interesting.

[TecmoBengals]

Bengalholic with another boss thread for examining stats. I appreciate these tidbits.

[Interceptor]

(01-25-2022, 10:59 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: In head to head matchups this postseason, the QBs who had the higher yards per attempt during the regular season are 9-1. The only loss was by a rookie QB.

Burrow 8.9 d Carr 7.7
Mahomes 7.4 d Roethlisberger 6.2
Allen 6.8 d Jones 7.3
Stafford 8.1 d Murray 7.9 
Garoppolo 8.6 d Prescott 7.5
Brady 7.4 d Hurts 7.3

Burrow 8.9 d Tannehill 7.0
Mahomes 7.4 d Allen 6.8
Stafford 8.1 d Brady 7.4
Garoppolo 8.6 d Rodgers 7.7

You don't find the same percentage of outcomes using other stats like comp %, TD passes or even QB rating...where 3 of the top 5 rated going into the playoffs lost. Just thought it was interesting.

You are not helping with my gambling problem.

[Bengalholic]

(01-25-2022, 11:04 AM)TecmoBengals Wrote: Bengalholic with another boss thread for examining stats. I appreciate these tidbits.

If it continues to play out that way, it would mean Bengals-49ers, Part 3. 

[TecmoBengals]

(01-25-2022, 11:37 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: If it continues to play out that way, it would mean Bengals-49ers, Part 3. 

I embrace this, bring it 49'ers. Our defense will take advantage of those few plays a game where Jimmy G blows it. Plus, we have Joe Cool this time. I know many posters go on about how the Steelers are their most hated team and some mix in the Browns or Ravens, but deep down inside my scarred NFL-heart loathes the 49'ers more than any other franchise. I want Burrow to crush them 48-7 or some other similar, ridiculous blowout score. 

[Nicomo Cosca]

Very interesting indeed. I’m kinda surprised Allen’s is so low.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

If we wind up playing 49ers we could be -3 by kickoff depending on conference championship results line currently sits at 49ers -1.5

[leonardfan40]

(01-25-2022, 11:37 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: If it continues to play out that way, it would mean Bengals-49ers, Part 3. 

But the Bengals win this time sounds perfect to me!

[*Synric*]

(01-25-2022, 11:42 AM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Very interesting indeed. I’m kinda surprised Allen’s is so low.

Bills offense is littered with quick throws to WR Screens and RB Swing passes near the line of scrimmage. 

[Clark W Griswold]

(01-25-2022, 11:06 AM)Interceptor Wrote: You are not helping with my gambling problem.

But he is trying to help you because it’s only a problem when you lose!

[leonardfan40]

(01-25-2022, 01:08 PM)Synric Wrote: Bills offense is littered with quick throws to WR Screens and RB Swing passes near the line of scrimmage. 

This^^^

I know everyone was super impressed as he played great last weekend but it’s mostly QB runs and short passes like that. He’ll hit the occasional deep ball when the defense overcommits or gets worn down, but he’s no Burrow as a passer.

[basballguy]

How the f did you even find this stat?

[Bengalholic]

(01-25-2022, 03:09 PM)basballguy Wrote: How the f did you even find this stat?

Just looking for any statistical trends among the playoff QB's. 

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Before the online gambling explosion, I mostly lurked but occasionally posted on a very active local based Steelers board. There was a guy on there that was one of those slimy late night TV infomercial guys "Call me and for $4.99, I will give you 6 picks including my Lock Of The Week". Greased back hair, strong New York accent, fill the air with cliche' after cliche', talking about everything while saying absolutely nothing . . . but he killed it in betting football. He shared many picks with his fellow Steelers fans.

One night, during some drunk posting, he let out some secrets and his biggest determining factor in pulling the trigger on his Lock Of The Week was that week's largest gap in dueling QB's Yards Per Attempt. After he revealed that to the board, that guy was King of the board for about a year because he made a ton of money for those people. It was fun to follow until the idiots couldn't control themselves and got their board shut down because it was connected to a local TV station. Some Yinzer insulted and then threatened a poster that happened to be the 14 year old daughter of a major local sponsor of the station . . . message board gone. That was about 20 years ago and I'm not sure how accurate that YPA stat still is in today's NFL outside of Bengalholic's list, but that is no surprise to me.

Learning from a Steelers fan reminds me of those old seat belt Public Service Announcements "You can learn a lot from a dummy".

[*SHRacerX*]

(01-25-2022, 10:59 AM)Bengalholic Wrote: In head to head matchups this postseason, the QBs who had the higher yards per attempt during the regular season are 9-1. The only loss was by a rookie QB.

Burrow 8.9 d Carr 7.7
Mahomes 7.4 d Roethlisberger 6.2
Allen 6.8 d Jones 7.3
Stafford 8.1 d Murray 7.9 
Garoppolo 8.6 d Prescott 7.5
Brady 7.4 d Hurts 7.3

Burrow 8.9 d Tannehill 7.0
Mahomes 7.4 d Allen 6.8
Stafford 8.1 d Brady 7.4
Garoppolo 8.6 d Rodgers 7.7

You don't find the same percentage of outcomes using other stats like comp %, TD passes or even QB rating...where 3 of the top 5 rated going into the playoffs lost. Just thought it was interesting.

Good stuff, as always, Holic.

I don't get in to the DVOA stuff too much, but the podcasts I listen to break it down every now and again.  I remember them saying how that favored the Bengals over the Titans more than it even did against the Raiders.

My impression going in to this game is as follows:

Where are the Bengals weak?   Offensive line?  Didn't see to have a huge problem against the Chiefs last time, when Burrow went off for 440 yards and 4 TDs.  It was the Titans biggest strength vs. the Bengals biggest weakness.  The interior pass rush of the Chiefs has one really good player.  

I see the Bengals as strong in the secondary.  Very strong when Chido is at his best.  Bates and Bell are playing at an elite level at just the right time.

The LBs?  Wilson graded a fricking 90 against the Titans.  Pratt and Bailey also had huge plays.  

The front four?  Hendrickson is still Hendrickson and will be held every single fricking play.  He will wear them down, though.  Reader is an unmovable force and Hill can generate some pressure from inside.  


How about on offense?  Seriously?  The QB is top flight.  The WRs are as well.  Mixon is making  the most of when he gets opportunities.  The TEs are solid, and reliable.  The line?  They will learn from last week and be better this week.

Special teams?  Pretty damn good, if Money Mac has anything to say about it.

I just look at the team as a whole and think that if one group is off a bit, or the other team schemes to take something away, the Bengals can beat you another way.

Do I think they throttle the Chiefs 45-0?  No.  Do I think they are capable of winning?  Absolutely.  

[Interceptor]

(01-26-2022, 11:04 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: Good stuff, as always, Holic.

I don't get in to the DVOA stuff too much, but the podcasts I listen to break it down every now and again.  I remember them saying how that favored the Bengals over the Titans more than it even did against the Raiders.

My impression going in to this game is as follows:

Where are the Bengals weak?   Offensive line?  Didn't see to have a huge problem against the Chiefs last time, when Burrow went off for 440 yards and 4 TDs.  It was the Titans biggest strength vs. the Bengals biggest weakness.  The interior pass rush of the Chiefs has one really good player.  

I see the Bengals as strong in the secondary.  Very strong when Chido is at his best.  Bates and Bell are playing at an elite level at just the right time.

The LBs?  Wilson graded a fricking 90 against the Titans.  Pratt and Bailey also had huge plays.  

The front four?  Hendrickson is still Hendrickson and will be held every single fricking play.  He will wear them down, though.  Reader is an unmovable force and Hill can generate some pressure from inside.  


How about on offense?  Seriously?  The QB is top flight.  The WRs are as well.  Mixon is making  the most of when he gets opportunities.  The TEs are solid, and reliable.  The line?  They will learn from last week and be better this week.

Special teams?  Pretty damn good, if Money Mac has anything to say about it.

I just look at the team as a whole and think that if one group is off a bit, or the other team schemes to take something away, the Bengals can beat you another way.

Do I think they throttle the Chiefs 45-0?  No.  Do I think they are capable of winning?  Absolutely.  

No matter how you slice and dice it, pretty or ugly, and like you said - one facet could be "off",  they still find a way to get that W.