Why Not?

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 03:34 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: 1. At the end of the season, starting RG and RT were injured and replaced by Adeniji and Prince.

2. Show me what percentage of pass plays were 3 step drops at the beginning and end of season. And give me a breakdown of the routes run that show no deep posts or double moves were run.


Improving the Oline is not going to change Zac Taylor's scheme or how often he utilizes 3 WRs.  You're talking about a more traditional offense and that isn't what Zac Taylor or Sean McVay run.

The Rams used 11 personnel 84% of the time.  They passed 63% from this personnel package. They ran 37%.
The Bengals used 11 personnel 77% of the time. They passed 67% from this personnel package.  They ran 33%.

Kupp 1024 snaps, 191 targets, 145 rec, 8 drops
R. Woods (7 games) 543 snaps, 69 targets, 45 rec, 3 drops
O. Beckham, Jr (9 games) 376 snaps, 48 targets, 27 rec, 2 drops
V. Jefferson 875 snaps, 89 targets, 50 rec, 6 drops (2020 2nd round pick who had 19 rec rookie year)
Offensive line ranked #7 by PFF

Chase 939 snaps, 128 targets, 81 rec, 11 drops (most in NFL)
Higgins 710 snaps, 110 targets, 74 rec, 5 drops
Boyd 804 snaps, 94 targets, 67 rec, 0 drops
Offensive line ranked #20 by PFF

Despite having a much higher ranked Oline, the Rams ran the ball only 4% more than the Bengals and utilized the WR3 about the same.  They had to sign OBJ mid-season to replace Woods who was injured because they need three legit WRs to run this style of offense. The Rams were extremely lucky because WRs of OBJ's quality usually aren't released in mid-season. Van Jefferson was a second round pick that approached Boyd's production in his second season.  Are you going to draft a WR3 in the 2nd round like the Rams? No.


Bates could get a draft pick and trading him adds an additional $12.9M to cap.  Releasing/trading Boyd adds $7.3M to cap.  Trading Bates arguably gets you a higher draft pick in a trade, but undeniable adds an extra $5.6M to the cap which goes at least half way to signing an additional veteran FA Olineman.




Then I bet you're salivating at the idea of an extra $5.6M to ensure an additional upper level blocker to improve the Oline at two positions.


Except as shown multiple times, that would require a 1st or 2nd round draft pick when you only want to spend a late round draft pick on a WR3.


Except I just showed you how the same offense with a better Oline doesn't change the scheme or usage of WR3.

I really wish you would put in a bare minimum of effort to research before you post.

You kind of made my point with the Rams:  Kupp and WR2 had the majority of the targets, over WR3.  The Rams didnt have Joe Mixon, RB by committee always has lesser stats.

I dont disagree that Bates could most likely get a higher pick and save more money. Not sure why I have to say it again because you cant comprehend it, but Bates is the riskier play due to our current roster. You never told me those other 2 safeties on the team besides Bates and Bell?

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 12:35 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You keep saying this over and over again.


I'll make you a sign bet right now that Boyd won't make more money than 4 of our starting O-lineman this year.

That wasn't even true during last season.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 02:41 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I agree with much of this. 

Im not equating Bates & Boyds production.  I agree Bates played poorly this season, but we with our current roster missing a CB and not knowing the replacement and zero depth Im much more concerned about the FS replacement than who will play the 3rd wide receiver.  If we had a replacement or plan in place this part would be negligible.

I dont want the WR3 or FS to be the highest guy on either side of the ball whatsoever.

My preference to spend high dollars on O: QB, WR1, OLINE, WR2.  On D: DE, CB, DT

Solid oline the WR's and Mixon should get the bulk of the load. I dont see Mixon here in 2024 with his cap hit. Upgrade the line again and any RB can hit an open hole, any WR3 and TE can be check downs if we still have Higgins

Defense: Stop the run, rush the passer, defend dangerous receivers.  Great CBs dont need a great FS, I would prefer this method.

NFL salaries make no secret the valued positions.

Yet, knowing all this, you still insist upon overpaying a FS for one year instead of applying that money to any of the priority position to a long term contract instead.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 02:58 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I have no issue upgrading CB over FS.  But CB is a huge cost vs a rookie replacement at WR3 and we still need a replacement at FS so you are adding 2 players. And both the CB & FS must be solid or we are screwed. WR3 is low risk.

You need to add a CB in either scenario.  The Bengals need to add a CB right now with both Boyd and Bates on the roster.

Quote:You're projecting replacing Boyd with someone else because you believe Bates is a higher priority.  Well, do a different projection because you already admitted CB is a higher priority than FS. You're completely inconsistent in your logic.

Again, I hate calling you names but it is so frustrating when you refuse to even try to comprehend the message.  CB is higher priority than FS but as I said 50 f-ing times Im going by our current roster.  We need to pay big for a CB that isnt here yet. We would need to replace Bates with a player that isnt here yet.  Both of these guys must be solid.  I can replace WR3 with a rookie at low cost and if he isnt great that isnt a huge loss if our oline is much improved.

And the Bengals need to add a CB that isn't here with Bates and Boyd on the roster, RIGHT NOW.

This offensive scheme is based upon 3 WRs which is why the Rams signed OBJ mid season.  Despite the Rams having a better Oline it didn't change the reliance on a WR3 to operate their style of offense.  Their WR3 is a 2nd round pick from 2020. The only WR from last years draft that fit your criteria that you think you can add to replace Boyd were 1st or 2nd round picks.  

Quote:These questions mean nothing - Im not getting rid of WR3 simply adding a less expensive, younger, faster player.
1. Why isn't the opposing defense in nickel vs 3 WRs?

2. Do only WR3s run hitches or slants? If that's true maybe the offense shouldn't be so predictable.







Last draft there were nine WRs that meet just your speed requirement of 4.3s.  Only one matched or exceeded Boyd's production as a WR3 

Again, for the 500th time, I dont care about Boyds production in an offense running half the playbook forced into dink and dunk situations due to a terrible oline in which the WR3 is a good option due to coverage by a LB.

Let me type this slowly, maybe it will help... IN MY OPINION with a much improved oline we become a better rushing offense which keeps LBs at home and provides more time for deeper route concepts geared for Chase & Higgins. We still have a WR3 and TE but without as much reliance.  This is an explosive and sustainable offense, again IN MY OPINION.

Again, I've showed data which applies to this style of offense with a better offensive line and what you claimed will happen didn't.  The reliance on the WR3 was unchanged.

Show me the data upon which your opinion is based.  Because I have provided the info to support mine. I have an open mind and am willing to change my opinion, but you haven't given me ANY information to reassess.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 03:54 PM)casear2727 Wrote: You kind of made my point with the Rams:  Kupp and WR2 had the majority of the targets, over WR3.  The Rams didnt have Joe Mixon, RB by committee always has lesser stats.

I dont disagree that Bates could most likely get a higher pick and save more money. Not sure why I have to say it again because you cant comprehend it, but Bates is the riskier play due to our current roster. You never told me those other 2 safeties on the team besides Bates and Bell?

No shit. That's a given unless you prove otherwise.  The point is WR3 is more important in this style of offense than you are willing to admit.  And the Rams improved offensive line didn't decrease the offense's use of the WR3. And their WR3 is  former second round pick in his second year.  You're not replacing Boyd or V. Jefferson in either system with a late round "electrifying" (was it?) WR with 4.3s speed and great hands.

And I've given you the data to support that.  If you want me to believe otherwise, do the same.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 04:05 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Yet, knowing all this, you still insist upon overpaying a FS for one year instead of applying that money to any of the priority position to a long term contract instead.

I dont insist on over paying a safety - I simply said it is a much riskier proposition with what we have today.

If we were told hey Boyd is traded for a draft pick and rookie will start at WR3, we would be ok... lets check it out.

If we were told hey Bates is traded for a draft pick and rookie will start at FS, we would be a little less confident and asking who our CB1 was?


We like the money saved and the youth at both spots, but FS requires 2, maybe 3 guys for us to be truly comfortable (New FS, CB1, and maybe a vet FS as insurance?)

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 04:39 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: No shit. That's a given unless you prove otherwise.  The point is WR3 is more important in this style of offense than you are willing to admit.  And the Rams improved offensive line didn't decrease the offense's use of the WR3. And their WR3 is  former second round pick in his second year.  You're not replacing Boyd or V. Jefferson in either system with a late round "electrifying" (was it?) WR with 4.3s speed and great hands.

And I've given you the data to support that.  If you want me to believe otherwise, do the same.

Van Jefferson makes 1M, Boyd makes 10M.  I'll take VJ at 1M all day to play WR3 in our offense and use the balance on a lineman.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 04:43 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I dont insist on over paying a safety - I simply said it is a much riskier proposition with what we have today.

If we were told hey Boyd is traded for a draft pick and rookie will start at WR3, we would be ok... lets check it out.

If we were told hey Bates is traded for a draft pick and rookie will start at FS, we would be a little less confident and asking who our CB1 was?


We like the money saved and the youth at both spots, but FS requires 2, maybe 3 guys for us to be truly comfortable (New FS, CB1, and maybe a vet FS as insurance?)

Who is the Bengals' CB1 right now? Are you comfortable with that? No, you're not.  You've already stated so.  That's why you think Bates is valuable. You know they need to upgrade CB.  You know CB is a position of priority over FS.  Yet, you're still going with the same scenario the more important position isn't addressed.

I understand the context perfectly.  I understand the logic to your argument.  It is your decision making that is inconsistent with the context and your logic.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 04:46 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Van Jefferson makes 1M, Boyd makes 10M.  I'll take VJ at 1M all day to play WR3 in our offense.

Van Jefferson is on his rookie contract, was drafted two years ago, and didn't produce his first year. Are you going to draft a WR in the 2nd round this year and wait for him to develop for next year?

[fredtoast]

(03-10-2022, 04:46 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Van Jefferson makes 1M, Boyd makes 10M.  I'll take VJ at 1M all day to play WR3 in our offense.

Unfortunately, 7 of the other 12 WRs taken in the first two rounds of the '20 draft with Van have yet to equal Boyd's numbers from last year.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Unfortunately, 7 of the other 12 WRs taken in the first two rounds of the '20 draft with Van have yet to equal Boyd's numbers from last year.

I understand but dont care about Boyds production this season with a terrible oline.  My opinion is... with a much better oline our rushing improves keeping 2nd level defenders at home while giving our QB more time for longer passing concepts to our primary receivers.  WR3 is more of a check down option.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 05:01 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Who is the Bengals' CB1 right now? Are you comfortable with that? No, you're not.  You've already stated so.  That's why you think Bates is valuable. You know they need to upgrade CB.  You know CB is a position of priority over FS.  Yet, you're still going with the same scenario the more important position isn't addressed.

I understand the context perfectly.  I understand the logic to your argument.  It is your decision making that is inconsistent with the context and your logic.

Im more comfortable with Bates as FS with not knowing our CB1 or 2 (depending on who we get)  and thats why he is more valuable today.

If that CB is Eli Apple, as has been mentioned by the staff, I am not comfortable even though he played well in stretches. If you fully understood what. I was saying you would know I am not inconsistent whatsoever on this point. Nothing has changed.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 05:47 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I understand but dont care about Boyds production this season with a terrible oline.  My opinion is... with a much better oline our rushing improves keeping 2nd level defenders at home while giving our QB more time for longer passing concepts to our primary receivers.  WR3 is more of a check down option.

V. Jefferson 16.0 yds/rec
Kupp 13.4 yds/rec
Woods 12.4 yds/rec
OBJ 11.3 yds/rec

Same offense.  Better Oline.  WR3 16.0 yds/rec.  Does that sound like a check down?

Still waiting for any information to support a single opinion to force me to reassess.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 05:03 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: Van Jefferson is on his rookie contract, was drafted two years ago, and didn't produce his first year. Are you going to draft a WR in the 2nd round this year and wait for him to develop for next year?

It doesnt matter to me.  In my opinion our offense scheme is dependent on WR1, WR2 and RB - WR3 was relied upon more this past season due to the fact we must place a short/quick pass game.  If we become a more vertical team (not just go routes) the reliance on that WR3 lessens.

In my opinion WR3, the position, is less priority with a better oline.  Bates is a luxury.  If our oline is not up to par we should have no luxuries, and for Fred I will say it again - "we should never pay WR3 more than 4 starters combined on the oline if that line is as horrid as ours was".

Now if the oline was humming I would not say anything. I think the future will prove my point true when Bates walks with zero value in return and we never, ever pay a WR3 this high % amount again.

If Bates had carried us more this postseason I would feel different. Had he run the correct route in the redzone and scored a TD to secure the game AND not dropped an 8 yard pass on 3rd down late in the 4th to keep us alive - I could see it.  But his play, when it counted most, came up short revealing a very good in-season player that did not produce enough in the playoffs to compensate for the low paid oline guys we had causing so many issues.

I simply think the best oline we can get will improve production for the top wideouts and running game that the slot isnt required to be a luxury player. We will still have one and hopefully a good one, there are so many receivers. But while we pay Mixon 11-13M we need to run the ball and extend the field with a deliberate mid range passing attacks.

All that said, I truly hope Bates has 2 kick ass seasons and wins the MVP as we get 2 rings and you can tell me you told me so, Im cool with that.

[casear2727]

(03-10-2022, 06:10 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: V. Jefferson 16.0 yds/rec
Kupp 13.4 yds/rec
Woods 12.4 yds/rec
OBJ 11.3 yds/rec

Same offense.  Better Oline.  WR3 16.0 yds/rec.  Does that sound like a check down?

Still waiting for any information to support a single opinion to force me to reassess.

Jefferson was their deep threat (minimum targets too), Chase is ours, Higgins a close 2nd.  Need to operate in the realm of reality, it's not all apples to apples as we do not run the same offense as the Rams.

You wont reassess because you refuse to attempt to see the someone else's viewpoint from their side.  It's ok, I've accepted that.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 05:57 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Im more comfortable with Bates as FS with not knowing our CB1 or 2 (depending on who we get)  and thats why he is more valuable today.

If that CB is Eli Apple, as has been mentioned by the staff, I am not comfortable even though he played well in stretches. If you fully understood what. I was saying you would know I am not inconsistent whatsoever on this point. Nothing has changed.

So you think the Bengals' CB1 will be Eli Apple? He's a depth piece.  And Apple gave up the game winning TD in the Super Bowl. You want to cut Boyd because he dropped one pass during the Super Bowl when it mattered most.  Yet, you want to bring back a CB who gave up the game winning TD during the Super Bowl and failed during the most important play all year? And you think you're being consistent?  LOL

If you don't know who the CB1 is then you don't have one. Which makes getting one still more valuable than overpaying a FS. Because if you have a good CB1 that makes an overpaying a FS moot.  Especially since you only believe Bates is more important to this defense because of the CB situation. And that's following your logic.

If your plan is to bring back Eli Apple to be one of your top 2 CBs, that makes CB even more of a need and FS less of a need.  I'd be more comfortable with any of the FS projected in the first 2 rounds of the draft if that meant the Bengals get a better CB than Eli Apple.  If my choices are Eli Apple + Jesse Bates or Top Tier CB + Round 1 FS rookie, I'll take the latter.

You don't know who the WR3 will be either, therefore Boyd is more valuable today than any unknown player based upon your logic.

Again, your arguments aren't consistent with your logic.

If you have a car and the engine doesn't run and the tire is flat, what's more important to fix?  Are you going to fix the engine (CB) and patch the tire(FS) so you can drive to work? Or are you going to buy a brand new tire because if the engine doesn't work the tire is more important so you can push your car to work?

Or if you have a horse and a cart, which one are you going to put up front?  Are you going to put the cart (FS) in front of the horse (CB)? Or are you going to put the horse in front of the cart? Because right now, your argument is putting the cart in front of the horse.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 06:14 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Jefferson was their deep threat (minimum targets too), Chase is ours, Higgins a close 2nd.  Need to operate in the realm of reality, it's not all apples to apples as we do not run the same offense as the Rams.

You wont reassess because you refuse to attempt to see the someone else's viewpoint from their side.  It's ok, I've accepted that.

So you're saying their WR3 wasn't a check down with a better Oliine?  Do you realize that contradicts your argument. Again.

Kupp had 30 rec of 20+yds (1st), 9 rec of 40+yds (1st tie)
Chase had 22 rec of 20+yds (5th), 8 rec of 40+yds (4th)
Jefferson had 12 rec of 20+ yds (33rd tie), 4 rec of 40+yds (10th tie)

I’m just wondering if Jefferson was the Rams deep threat, why did Kupp lead the NFL in deep receptions and had more deep receptions than both the Rams’ and the Bengals’ deep threats? Because you make shit up.

[oncemoreuntothejimbreech]

(03-10-2022, 06:11 PM)casear2727 Wrote: It doesnt matter to me.  In my opinion our offense scheme is dependent on WR1, WR2 and RB - WR3 was relied upon more this past season due to the fact we must place a short/quick pass game.  If we become a more vertical team (not just go routes) the reliance on that WR3 lessens.

There is no fact in that opinion.  You have failed to produce a single piece of evidence to support any of this.  While I have shown you evidence this conclusion is untrue.

Show me EVIDENCE. Or hush.

[J24]

(03-08-2022, 09:39 PM)oncemoreuntothejimbreech Wrote: The Bengals play 3 WR sets something like 77% of the time. If Boyd plays 74% of offensive snaps is he “just” a third WR? For comparison, Reader played 53% of defensive snaps and Hendrickson play 64%.

Tag and trade Bates and the Bengals save $12M.

In 2021, a top 5 S started at $14M average per year. Top 5 C $10.5M. Top 5 LG $10.8M. Top 5 RG $9M. Top 5 RT $17M.

If it is me and I can get an equivalent quality player at a position of need for less that allows me to apply the savings elsewhere.

In other words, sign a Top 5 RG for less than a Top 5 S and draft a new S for less. Use the savings elsewhere or at least roll it over.

I would  have no problem  trading  Bates for the right price but that price would be very high. 

(03-10-2022, 05:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Unfortunately, 7 of the other 12 WRs taken in the first two rounds of the '20 draft with Van have yet to equal Boyd's numbers from last year.

For the record the 5 guys that have = Tyler Boyd stats from last season(828 Yards)  were Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins*, CeCe Lamb, Tee Higgins*, Michael Pittman*, and Chase Claypool*.

Guys that just missed the cut Brandon Aiyuk(826 yards), Van Jefferson*(802 yards), and Jerry Judy (had more yards in 2020 than 828). Additionally  Laviska Shehalt* had 600 yards which is decent for a young Wr with a rookie QB.

Henry Ruggs missed majority of the season  as well as KJ Hamler*. Denzel Mims* is really the only on field bust of the group so far.

* indicates drafted  31st pick or after*

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

(03-10-2022, 02:41 PM)casear2727 Wrote: I agree with much of this. 

Im not equating Bates & Boyds production.  I agree Bates played poorly this season, but we with our current roster missing a CB and not knowing the replacement and zero depth Im much more concerned about the FS replacement than who will play the 3rd wide receiver.  If we had a replacement or plan in place this part would be negligible.

I dont want the WR3 or FS to be the highest guy on either side of the ball whatsoever.

My preference to spend high dollars on O: QB, WR1, OLINE, WR2.  On D: DE, CB, DT

Solid oline the WR's and Mixon should get the bulk of the load. I dont see Mixon here in 2024 with his cap hit. Upgrade the line again and any RB can hit an open hole, any WR3 and TE can be check downs if we still have Higgins

Defense: Stop the run, rush the passer, defend dangerous receivers.  Great CBs dont need a great FS, I would prefer this method.

NFL salaries make no secret the valued positions.

I would definitely prefer those be the main cogs on the team as well. I'm assuming they've got a plan at CB. It may even wind up where Apple is depth. Our CB room was pretty good last year though. Hilton, Awuzie, Apple, Waynes, (I know, lol) Flowers, and good ol Vern even weren't a bad crew. As you say, problem is only two are inked. A veteran crew with chips on their shoulders. It worked out better than I anticipated..... better than most pundits too.