Would you do the deal...

[*bfine32*]

(03-10-2022, 01:05 PM)Speedy Thomas Wrote: That's the seductive beauty of hindsight.  I am giving us the benefit of perfect drafting.  The reality is that it's 50-50, even in the first round.  And I think that's why the Bengals turned down the offer.  Burrow was as close to a sure thing as you're going to find.  So they took the bird in the hand.  Absolutely the correct decision.

But....based on comments of Bengal coaches after the Senior Bowl, I'm pretty sure they would have taken Herbert over Tua at 5.  And I can recall Callahan at the Senior Bowl moaning over how good one particular receiver who had been  overshadowed on his college team looked and that now everyone knew (looking at you, Justin Jefferson). 

Even though I don't know how highly they valued Diggs, I believe we would have netted a haul similar to what I gave us.  Including the tackle that we are now dying to sign or draft.

Anyhow, it's fun to think about this.

   

Agreed, but I think it just shows how right we got it. Even with the ability of hindsight most wouldn't make the trade. 

[BobJones4980]

(03-10-2022, 08:31 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except.... 
Justin Jefferson's results are with Kirk Cousins as his QB. Are we not believing that Justin Herbert is better than Kirk Cousins?
Justin Herbert's results are with the 29th scoring defense and a HC that refuses to kick FGs due to analytics that directly lost multiple games.

Meanwhile you get to add an 11 INT All-Pro CB, AND also whomever you take in the 1st round of the 2021 draft... Sewell? Slater? Parsons? Heck, maybe even Chase or DeVonta Smith?

As for Diggs "got beat quite a bit"... does it matter? If you win more than you lose, you are a winner. He gave up 4 TDs and got 11 INTs (including 2 that were pick sixes). He allowed a 55.8 QB Rating in his coverage. 

Damien Harris was PFF's 3rd ranked RB in 2021. Derrick Henry was 17th. Are you telling me you'd want Damien Harris over Derrick Henry?

As I said, Burrow pulled ahead of Herbert in 2021, but it wasn't so far that an All-Pro CB PLUS one of Chase/Sewell/Slater/Parsons doesn't cover that gap.

I mean I'm not just looking at the grade on Diggs, just using it as a reference. They do a pretty good job explaining the grade though:

Quote:The first and most apparent reason Diggs has a lower grade than you might expect is that he gives up a lot of yardage between interceptions. How many yards? Well, he is currently on pace to surrender the most yards in coverage PFF has recorded from any cornerback over the last 16 years.


Think about that for a second. Some truly catastrophic liabilities in coverage have started full seasons over the last 16 years in the NFL, and Diggs could eclipse them all in yards allowed despite boasting the kind of interception total that would ordinarily dissuade offenses from targeting his coverage.


It’s a smaller point, but Diggs also leads the league in penalties among cornerbacks, with two more than anybody else.

My point being, are all the big plays he makes sustainable or is this season the outlier. Because if it is an outlier and the interceptions drop to a more reasonable number then he just becomes a liability. So yea I would say it does matter, quite a bit for the future of the team if lets say he ends up with 5 interceptions next year and gives up the same yardage.

Again I think Herbert and Justin Jefferson are good to great players, do I think if we replace Higgins, Chase and Burrow with Herbert, JJ, Diggs, and Slater we make the Super Bowl? I don't think we do but this is all speculation so who knows.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-10-2022, 01:34 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Even despite hindsight, you're actually looking at trading JJ for Chase AND Higgins. There's no way they would have taken 2 WRs in first two rounds, no matter the talent. Hard pass for that reason alone (JC & TH > JJ)

They did it with OT just 5 years earlier. Also Higgins didn't preclude them from taking Chase, so this is faulty thinking twice over. There's also nothing saying they couldn't still take Chase in 2021 either.

[WVUHomer]

(03-10-2022, 07:15 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: They did it with OT just 5 years earlier. Also Higgins didn't preclude them from taking Chase, so this is faulty thinking twice over. There's also nothing saying they couldn't still take Chase in 2021 either.

Let me rephrase then, with AJ Green (who the coaches clearly thought still had something in the tank) would have swayed them to go 1 WR that draft, not two. Chase was drafted after AJ left so my logic is still sound.

[J24]

I'm sticking with Burrow dudes the next Brady.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-10-2022, 07:42 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: Let me rephrase then, with AJ Green (who the coaches clearly thought still had something in the tank) would have swayed them to go 1 WR that draft, not two. Chase was drafted after AJ left so my logic is still sound.

Except the entire premise of this thread is based around having all of the hindsight. It's literally the title and the first words in the thread. We get hindsight.

[WVUHomer]

(03-10-2022, 08:03 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Except the entire premise of this thread is based around having all of the hindsight. It's literally the title and the first words in the thread. We get hindsight.

The hindsight was mentioned how the players turn out from the draft. The premise is assumed to be after FA, therefore after Green FT. If it assumes FA choices too, we wouldn't have wasted money on XF(can't remember his last initial) and had all the cheap good deals on our team.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(03-10-2022, 08:27 PM)WVUHomer Wrote: The hindsight was mentioned how the players turn out from the draft. The premise is assumed to be after FA, therefore after Green FT. If it assumes FA choices too, we wouldn't have wasted money on XF(can't remember his last initial) and had all the cheap good deals on our team.

It actually just says "knowing what you know now", but regardless even if it's just the draft you still take Higgins in the 2nd because you know he'll have 2,000 yards in his first two years.

Not taking Higgins was never part of the hypothetical. It is very clearly stated to be just a Burrow or Herbert+Jefferson+Diggs scenario.

[*Wyche'sWarrior*]

Intriguing, but no. Only because of Joe Burrow. I'm not sure Herbert could stand up to the beating JB has taken the first two years and still produce at a high level.