Joe Goodberry's thoughts on PFF grades

[*ochocincos*]

This morning, Joe Goodberry was responding to Jake Liscow's thoughts about PFF grades being used to determine a good or bad player.
He did mention that the grades that PFF gives don't always align with what he sees when he watches tape.
With that said, here's what he ultimately feels for whether PFF grades are worthwhile or not...

And I did two years of grading Bengals players on every snap and the difference between what I saw and what PFF saw was ultimately negligible and I stopped doing it myself.

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) March 12, 2022

So basically, Joe felt that while PFF wasn't perfect, it was extremely close to what he saw when he was analyzing players on snaps so much so that he stopped putting all the effort in to watch all that tape.

He's watched far more tape than I ever have or would care to, so if he says the difference between PFF's grades and what he sees when he watches is negligible, I'm going to trust that PFF really isn't that far off their assessments of players without knowing the play calls.

[casear2727]

(03-12-2022, 02:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This morning, Joe Goodberry was responding to Jake Liscow's thoughts about PFF grades being used to determine a good or bad player.
He did mention that the grades that PFF gives don't always align with what he sees when he watches tape.
With that said, here's what he ultimately feels for whether PFF grades are worthwhile or not...

And I did two years of grading Bengals players on every snap and the difference between what I saw and what PFF saw was ultimately negligible and I stopped doing it myself.

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) March 12, 2022

So basically, Joe felt that while PFF wasn't perfect, it was extremely close to what he saw when he was analyzing players on snaps so much so that he stopped putting all the effort in to watch all that tape.

He's watched far more tape than I ever have or would care to, so if he says the difference between PFF's grades and what he sees when he watches is negligible, I'm going to trust that PFF really isn't that far off their assessments of players.

Good catch.  I think the one position that may be the most difficult to grade is free safety.  There are so many schemes with receiver hand offs or deep responsibilities vs short, half vs thirds, then you throw in covering for CBs or SSs getting beat. Just seems it would be so hard to grade.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-12-2022, 02:55 PM)casear2727 Wrote: Good catch.  I think the one position that may be the most difficult to grade is free safety.  There are so many schemes with receiver hand offs or deep responsibilities vs short, half vs thirds, then you throw in covering for CBs or SSs getting beat. Just seems it would be so hard to grade.

You can grade tackling with FS's but yeah, the different schemes make grading the FS probably the most difficult of any position.

[*bengalfan74*]

I don't pretend to be any expert football analyzer. But I tend to agree with the PFF results, for the most part. Have there been individual games where I've disagreed ? sure. But their season numbers seem to be pretty close to me.

I've always said though that it's just a tool to use. Not the be all and end all.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-12-2022, 04:50 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I don't pretend to be any expert football analyzer. But I tend to agree with the PFF results, for the most part. Have there been individual games where I've disagreed ? sure. But their season numbers seem to be pretty close to me.

I've always said though that it's just a tool to use. Not the be all and end all.

This. There are many times I disagree completely with their grades but they watch the film much more than I do so they 
have an advantage. I might put more stock in splash plays than they do which is natural being a fan of football in general.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-12-2022, 04:50 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: I don't pretend to be any expert football analyzer. But I tend to agree with the PFF results, for the most part. Have there been individual games where I've disagreed ? sure. But their season numbers seem to be pretty close to me.

I've always said though that it's just a tool to use. Not the be all and end all.

That's kind of how I've always treated them.
I'll give credit to someone who is willing to put all that time into analysis because I'm sure as hell not, at least not for free lol.
However, as people point out plenty, you don't always know what someone's assignment is, so they might have done what was asked but it just didn't look like they did well to someone from the outside.

[*bengalfan74*]

(03-12-2022, 04:54 PM)ochocincos Wrote: That's kind of how I've always treated them.
I'll give credit to someone who is willing to put all that time into analysis because I'm sure as hell not, at least not for free lol.
However, as people point out plenty, you don't always know what someone's assignment is, so they might have done what was asked but it just didn't look like they did well to someone from the outside.

Right

Perhaps the LG's job on a given play was to pull to the right and take out the DE ? But the DE stunted inside or dropped in coverage or whatever and there's no one home for him to block ? It looks like the LG is lost for a second. There's dozens of examples.

Without having total access to the playbook there's just no way to know ? But I think they do a decent job of guessing.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(03-12-2022, 05:03 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Right

Perhaps the LG's job on a given play was to pull to the right and take out the DE ? But the DE stunted inside or dropped in coverage or whatever and there's no one home for him to block ? It looks like the LG is lost for a second. There's dozens of examples.

Without having total access to the playbook there's just no way to know ? But I think they do a decent job of guessing.

That reminds me of our last play in the Superbowl!

[Au165]

(03-12-2022, 02:49 PM)ochocincos Wrote: This morning, Joe Goodberry was responding to Jake Liscow's thoughts about PFF grades being used to determine a good or bad player.
He did mention that the grades that PFF gives don't always align with what he sees when he watches tape.
With that said, here's what he ultimately feels for whether PFF grades are worthwhile or not...

And I did two years of grading Bengals players on every snap and the difference between what I saw and what PFF saw was ultimately negligible and I stopped doing it myself.

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) March 12, 2022

So basically, Joe felt that while PFF wasn't perfect, it was extremely close to what he saw when he was analyzing players on snaps so much so that he stopped putting all the effort in to watch all that tape.

He's watched far more tape than I ever have or would care to, so if he says the difference between PFF's grades and what he sees when he watches is negligible, I'm going to trust that PFF really isn't that far off their assessments of players.

It is far off, been told it by multiple people tied to the NFL. One said agents are learning they will get laughed out of the room if the role in and quote PFF numbers when negotiating deals. Their advanced stats are very good, their grading does not align well at all with how teams tend to view a players performance often times. Some positions are better than others though, so it’s kind of just a matter of context.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-12-2022, 06:03 PM)Au165 Wrote: It is far off, been told it by multiple people tied to the NFL. One said agents are learning they will get laughed out of the room if the role in and quote PFF numbers when negotiating deals. Their advanced stats are very good, their grading does not align well at all with how teams tend to view a players performance often times. Some positions are better than others though, so it’s kind of just a matter of context.

But as a fan, it's probably better than anything else to go off of, no?
If you have something else better, please share (and don't say go watch tape, because that takes way too long and I'm not an expert)

As a fan, you get told you can't just go off stats, and in the case of OL there really aren't any stats. So unless you're some very strong expert that knows exactly what to look for on tape and has the time/interest to go watch all the players on 1000+ snaps a season, there's not much else to go off of. How else are fans supposed to help determine whether a player is good or not? Just trust the coaches? If that's the case, no reason to really debate anything.

[Au165]

(03-12-2022, 06:10 PM)ochocincos Wrote: But as a fan, it's probably better than anything else to go off of, no?
If you have something else better, please share (and don't say go watch tape, because that takes way too long and I'm not an expert)

I mean better in what way? If your viewing it as just some random peoples take on performance versus being “right” or fact then sure it’s better than nothing. The issue is a lot of people will use it as some sort of irrefutable fact on the performance or skill of a player, which it isn’t, and so that is where a lot of the disdain inside the league comes from. Literally a coach can grade a play as a + for a guy and PFF will rip them.

The best way to look at it is, guys more knowledgeable than most fans think “this” about a play but that may only be accurate 70% of the time. Coverage is where it gets really bad for them with pass blocking being kind of close behind.

[*Synric*]

Let's do it like this... A roster is made up of 53 players but let's give an estimate of saying 30 players play offense and defense on sundays. That's what 960 players for 32 teams?

There are roughly 65 to 80 snaps per offense and defense in a game we will do a quick estimating and split it at 73 so that's roughly 70,000 plays PFF has to review and they do it in around a 24 hour period.

[Au165]

(03-12-2022, 06:21 PM)Synric Wrote: Let's do it like this... A roster is made up of 53 players but let's give an estimate of saying 30 players play offense and defense on sundays. That's what 960 players for 32 teams?

There are roughly 65 to 80 snaps per offense and defense in a game we will do a quick estimating and split it at 73 so that's roughly 70,000 plays PFF has to review and they do it in around a 24 hour period.

I don't buy it.

They cut some corners for non targeted coverage scores but they’ve gotten better at actually doing it as they’ve grown.

The biggest issue is checks in coverage really really make it difficult who is responsible. Like I once saw Bill Belichick say even he struggles to know exactly who blows a coverage when they watch tape…even of his own guys! The reason being is guys make checks and so even the called play can have variations based on what the players checked to, so coaches have to ask the players in film what the check was and then get each players perspective to actually know what the issue is. You can usually blame one of two guys but that’s about where it ends for an outsider.

Offensively this isnt as bad so I don’t mind seeing skill player grades or even some run defense grades but it starts getting complicated beyond that.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

(03-12-2022, 06:03 PM)Au165 Wrote: It is far off, been told it by multiple people tied to the NFL. One said agents are learning they will get laughed out of the room if the role in and quote PFF numbers when negotiating deals. Their advanced stats are very good, their grading does not align well at all with how teams tend to view a players performance often times. Some positions are better than others though, so it’s kind of just a matter of context.

When PFF gets taken seriously in negotiations, players will be flooding social media with their PFF grades, especially in contract years. I usually only see it added at the bottom of a list of achievements. Rarely do I see players boast their numbers by themselves, outside of Spain.

[*ochocincos*]

(03-12-2022, 06:17 PM)Au165 Wrote: I mean better in what way? If your viewing it as just some random peoples take on performance versus being “right” or fact  then sure it’s better than nothing. The issue is a lot of people will use it as some sort of irrefutable fact on the performance or skill of a player, which it isn’t, and so  that is where a lot of the disdain inside the league comes from. Literally a coach can grade a play as a + for a guy and PFF will rip them.

The best way to look at it is, guys more knowledgeable than most fans think “this” about a play but that may only be accurate 70% of the time. Coverage is where it gets really bad for them with pass blocking being kind of close behind.

Better from a fan being able to try to determine good or bad.
No fan is ever going to be 100% right without knowing exactly what the play call was, which no one ever will.
PFF is literally the equivalent of a fan trying to determine tape, but they're given a set of guidelines/training of what to look for.

Since I am not a part of the team, I need something to help me determine if a player is potentially doing good or bad.

Alternatively, I could just not bother trying to determine that and just go with the flow since I'm not on the team and a coach, but if I did that, I probably wouldn't waste my time with a message board. I'd just be DennyG2 with the blind optimism/homerism 

[Au165]

(03-12-2022, 10:30 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Better from a fan being able to try to determine good or bad.
No fan is ever going to be 100% right without knowing exactly what the play call was, which no one ever will.
PFF is literally the equivalent of a fan trying to determine tape, but they're given a set of guidelines/training of what to look for.

Since I am not a part of the team, I need something to help me determine if a player is potentially doing good or bad.

Alternatively, I could just not bother trying to determine that and just go with the flow since I'm not on the team and a coach, but if I did that, I probably wouldn't waste my time with a message board. I'd just be DennyG2 with the blind optimism/homerism 

But see, that’s kind of the problem. People believe it does in fact represent if someone is good or bad, so much so they question coaches, GMs, teams based on these ratings that we have both accepted aren’t actually accurate, simply more accurate than average fans deciding. I guess a fair way to view it would be when debating with other people I guess go for it, when trying to second guess people in the NFL it’s worthless.

When people say things like, xyz sucks see his PFF grade why is coach playing him? He must be an idiot. That false empowerment of fans is literally why NFL people tend to hate PFF because it falsely makes fans think they have an idea of who is good or bad.

I mean this doesn’t even get into the bias that exists, which does in most things, when dealing with name players. Since it is humans doing the scoring, even with guidance, you have bias towards people based on preconceived notions. Good players get more benefit of doubt and bad players get far less which ends up just furthering confirmation bias.

[Essex Johnson]

It is a good metric but in the end nothing is the bible...

[*ochocincos*]

(03-12-2022, 11:13 PM)Au165 Wrote: But see, that’s kind of the problem. People believe it does in fact represent if someone is good or bad, so much so they question coaches, GMs, teams based on these ratings that we have both accepted aren’t actually accurate, simply more accurate than average fans deciding. I guess a fair way to view it would be when debating with other people I guess go for it, when trying to second guess people in the NFL it’s worthless.

When people say things like, xyz sucks see his PFF grade why is coach playing him? He must be an idiot. That false empowerment of fans is literally why NFL people tend to hate PFF because it falsely makes fans think they have an idea of who is good or bad.

I mean this doesn’t even get into the bias that exists, which does in most things, when dealing with name players. Since it is humans doing the scoring, even with guidance, you have bias towards people based on preconceived notions. Good players get more benefit of doubt and bad players get far less which ends up just furthering confirmation bias.

Yes, that all makes sense, but the way you say it makes it come off like, "Just trust the coaches."
But in reality, nothing we ultimately say on a message board is going to influence whether a team keeps, adds, or releases a player anyway.

[fredtoast]

Obviously PFF, like anyone else, comes up with some idea of who the best players are. But to get an idea of how their value aligns with NFL teams I looked at their top 15 ranked free agents last year and what they were projected to receive.


Safety Anthony Harris, their #3 rated free agent, was predicted to get a 4 year $56 million contract. Instead he got 1 yr $4 million.

Will Fuller was predicted to get 5 yr $88 million. Instead he got 1 yr at $10.6.

Richard Sherman was predicted to get 2 yr $28 million. Instead he got 1 yr $1.4 million.

Ju Ju Smith Schuster was predicted to get 4 yr $68 million. Instead he got 1 yr $8 million.

And that is just looking at their top 15 prospects. I am sure there are dozens of more examples of how different PFF grades players compared to NFL teams.

[THE PISTONS]

PFF watches every play. I see a player make a splash play...like Carman will pancake a guy and fans are like...wow he had a great game! Then he gets a low pff grade and they bash it.

Well, it's because that's 1 play. Win some plays...lose some plays.