Assessing the Cap

[Daddy-O]

Any of you Cap Guru's know where we currently stand with the Collins signing?

Just wondering how much flexibility we have left to try to improve further.

[CJD]

Jake Liscow has been doing his best to track the cap using estimated cap hits when he didn't have better information. This is what he came up with:

Thanks to @John__Sheeran pointing out Clay Johnston and Mitchell Wilcox haven't been announced on ERFA deals, I took them off the cap tracker.

With a -very- rough guess of $8m for Collins' year-1 hit, this is what the cap would look like after releasing Trae Waynes. pic.twitter.com/ByD3aQDX4q

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) March 20, 2022

He's assuming we roll 6 million over to next year (I wish we didn't and just go all in, but it's the Bengals way) and he assumes the rookie class will cost about 2.7 million in 2022 cap hit. I am not sure where he got that number, but I imagine it is based on historical data plus some trending.

So we basically have 3 to 5 million left in spendable money once we cut Waynes.

If we don't cut Waynes, then we're pretty much done and will need to cut someone else at some point.

[*bengalfan74*]

Why is Trae Waynes still on the roster ? They really planning on keeping him ?

[GodFather]

(03-21-2022, 09:49 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Why is Trae Waynes still on the roster ? They really planning on keeping him ?

I hope not, so he can spend another year on the beach sipping tequila and riding the waves nursing another injury?

[Au165]

(03-21-2022, 09:47 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Jake Liscow has been doing his best to track the cap using estimated cap hits when he didn't have better information. This is what he came up with:

Thanks to @John__Sheeran pointing out Clay Johnston and Mitchell Wilcox haven't been announced on ERFA deals, I took them off the cap tracker.

With a -very- rough guess of $8m for Collins' year-1 hit, this is what the cap would look like after releasing Trae Waynes. pic.twitter.com/ByD3aQDX4q

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) March 20, 2022

He's assuming we roll 6 million over to next year (I wish we didn't and just go all in, but it's the Bengals way) and he assumes the rookie class will cost about 2.7 million in 2022 cap hit. I am not sure where he got that number, but I imagine it is based on historical data plus some trending.

So we basically have 3 to 5 million left in spendable money once we cut Waynes.

If we don't cut Waynes, then we're pretty much done and will need to cut someone else at some point.

I'm pretty sure the rookie reserve should be closer to 5.4 million total. Pick 31 alone is about 2.3 million, and while a lot of the back end may not qualify as top 51 day 2 and early 3 should. 

[SunsetBengal]

(03-21-2022, 09:47 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Jake Liscow has been doing his best to track the cap using estimated cap hits when he didn't have better information. This is what he came up with:

Thanks to @John__Sheeran pointing out Clay Johnston and Mitchell Wilcox haven't been announced on ERFA deals, I took them off the cap tracker.

With a -very- rough guess of $8m for Collins' year-1 hit, this is what the cap would look like after releasing Trae Waynes. pic.twitter.com/ByD3aQDX4q

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) March 20, 2022

He's assuming we roll 6 million over to next year (I wish we didn't and just go all in, but it's the Bengals way) and he assumes the rookie class will cost about 2.7 million in 2022 cap hit. I am not sure where he got that number, but I imagine it is based on historical data plus some trending.

So we basically have 3 to 5 million left in spendable money once we cut Waynes.

If we don't cut Waynes, then we're pretty much done and will need to cut someone else at some point.

With the Collins signing, shouldn't that make Fred Johnson expendable at this point?  If so, and they release him, there is another $2.4M.

[Au165]

(03-21-2022, 10:12 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: With the Collins signing, shouldn't that make Fred Johnson expendable at this point?  If so, and they release him, there is another $2.4M.

Correct, I am guessing that will be rescinded at some point.  

[CJD]

(03-21-2022, 10:04 AM)Au165 Wrote: I'm pretty sure the rookie reserve should be closer to 5.4 million total. Pick 31 alone is about 2.3 million, and while a lot of the back end may not qualify as top 51 day 2 and early 3 should. 

I went to 2021 and looked up the year 1 cap hits for the 31st, 63rd and 95th picks and they were:
31: 2.031M
63: 1.011M
95: 874K

Our current cut off for the top 51 is 731k, so all three would current count towards the cap in the off season.

So I'm surprised he has such a low assumption. I'll look through his tweets and see if he gives a justification for it.

[CJD]

(03-21-2022, 10:04 AM)Au165 Wrote: I'm pretty sure the rookie reserve should be closer to 5.4 million total. Pick 31 alone is about 2.3 million, and while a lot of the back end may not qualify as top 51 day 2 and early 3 should. 

(03-21-2022, 10:19 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I went to 2021 and looked up the year 1 cap hits for the 31st, 63rd and 95th picks and they were:
31: 2.031M
63: 1.011M
95: 874K

Our current cut off for the top 51 is 731k, so all three would current count towards the cap in the off season.

So I'm surprised he has such a low assumption. I'll look through his tweets and see if he gives a justification for it.

He got the number from Overthecap, here:
https://overthecap.com/draft/

The rookie pool itself is 8.3M, but they estimate the cap hit at just 2.7M.

[CJD]

(03-21-2022, 10:12 AM)SunsetBengal Wrote: With the Collins signing, shouldn't that make Fred Johnson expendable at this point?  If so, and they release him, there is another $2.4M.

Yep! And they can cut him all the way up to the end of training camp and nothing will impact the cap. They may keep him around to compete with Isaiah Prince, but given that cap hit vs Prince's 965k cap hit, I'd say Johnson would have to overperform him by quite a bit to secure the roster spot.

[WeezyBengal]

(03-21-2022, 09:47 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Jake Liscow has been doing his best to track the cap using estimated cap hits when he didn't have better information. This is what he came up with:

Thanks to @John__Sheeran pointing out Clay Johnston and Mitchell Wilcox haven't been announced on ERFA deals, I took them off the cap tracker.

With a -very- rough guess of $8m for Collins' year-1 hit, this is what the cap would look like after releasing Trae Waynes. pic.twitter.com/ByD3aQDX4q

— Jake Liscow (@JakeLiscow) March 20, 2022

He's assuming we roll 6 million over to next year (I wish we didn't and just go all in, but it's the Bengals way) and he assumes the rookie class will cost about 2.7 million in 2022 cap hit. I am not sure where he got that number, but I imagine it is based on historical data plus some trending.

So we basically have 3 to 5 million left in spendable money once we cut Waynes.

If we don't cut Waynes, then we're pretty much done and will need to cut someone else at some point.

Why do they roll the cap over? Is this to "save" money for the upcoming Burrow/Higgins/Chase contracts? 

Do they roll the cap over because they don't have a ton of liquid assets? 

[Au165]

(03-21-2022, 10:24 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: He got the number from Overthecap, here:
https://overthecap.com/draft/

The rookie pool itself is 8.3M, but they estimate the cap hit at just 2.7M.

Again, that isn't correct. The total value of year 1 rookie deals against the cap will be close to 8.3 million, again pick 31 is over 2 million by themselves. Because of the 51 rule most those guys from day 3 won't count this year but it is much higher than 2.7 for rookies to plan for.

[*psychdoctor*]

(03-21-2022, 10:27 AM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Why do they roll the cap over? Is this to "save" money for the upcoming Burrow/Higgins/Chase contracts? 

Do they roll the cap over because they don't have a ton of liquid assets? 

I heard that they like to have a cushion in case there's an emergency signing during the year. I don't know if that is correct

[SunsetBengal]

(03-21-2022, 10:48 AM)psychdoctor Wrote: I heard that they like to have a cushion in case there's  an emergency signing during the year. I don't know if that is correct

That is what I understand as one of the primary reasons for the rollover, in case of injury settlements/replacement signings.

[*psychdoctor*]

The draft may indicate whether the organization is going to extend bates, he is very popular with the organization and fans. It would be a tough pill to swallow if they let him go at the end of the year. With that said, they took a big cap hit this year with the franchise tag.

[leonardfan40]

(03-21-2022, 10:19 AM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: I went to 2021 and looked up the year 1 cap hits for the 31st, 63rd and 95th picks and they were:
31: 2.031M
63: 1.011M
95: 874K

Our current cut off for the top 51 is 731k, so all three would current count towards the cap in the off season.

So I'm surprised he has such a low assumption. I'll look through his tweets and see if he gives a justification for it.

(03-21-2022, 10:28 AM)Au165 Wrote: Again, that isn't correct. The total value of year 1 rookie deals against the cap will be close to 8.3 million, again pick 31 is over 2 million by themselves. Because of the 51 rule most those guys from day 3 won't count this year but it is much higher than 2.7 for rookies to plan for.

Based on the numbers Crazyjdawg posted above only our first 3 picks are likely to count in the cap (which counts only the top 51 players salaries). Those 3 picks combine to $3.916 mil, but each of those will knock off a player from the top 51 contracts which means each one will kick around $825k out of our cap hit while adding the above cap hits at the same time.

The cap hits will likely be a little over what they were last year which is the numbers posted above but not by much. One other thing to keep in mind is the last/lowest of the top 51 contracts will decrease if we cut guys like Waynes/Johnson for cap space.

$3.916 mil - (3 players times $825k) $2.475 mil leaves us only needing about $1.441 mil in cap space to cover. Not sure where the guy in the tweet is coming up with his numbers but we shouldn’t need much cap space at all for draft picks this year.

[CJD]

(03-21-2022, 10:28 AM)Au165 Wrote: Again, that isn't correct. The total value of year 1 rookie deals against the cap will be close to 8.3 million, again pick 31 is over 2 million by themselves. Because of the 51 rule most those guys from day 3 won't count this year but it is much higher than 2.7 for rookies to plan for.

I'm just telling you where he got it. Not saying it's correct.

[Au165]

(03-21-2022, 11:02 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Based on the numbers Crazyjdawg posted above only our first 3 picks are likely to count in the cap (which counts only the top 51 players salaries). Those 3 picks combine to $3.916 mil, but each of those will knock off a player from the top 51 contracts which means each one will kick around $825k out of our cap hit while adding the above cap hits at the same time.

The cap hits will likely be a little over what they were last year which is the numbers posted above but not by much. One other thing to keep in mind is the last/lowest of the top 51 contracts will decrease if we cut guys like Waynes/Johnson for cap space.

$3.916 mil - (3 players times $825k) $2.475 mil leaves us only needing about $1.441 mil in cap space to cover. Not sure where the guy in the tweet is coming up with his numbers but we shouldn’t need much cap space at all for draft picks this year.

I had the 51 but didn’t think about the difference versus new money so that makes sense.

[*rfaulk34*]

(03-21-2022, 11:02 AM)leonardfan40 Wrote: Based on the numbers Crazyjdawg posted above only our first 3 picks are likely to count in the cap (which counts only the top 51 players salaries). Those 3 picks combine to $3.916 mil, but each of those will knock off a player from the top 51 contracts which means each one will kick around $825k out of our cap hit while adding the above cap hits at the same time.

The cap hits will likely be a little over what they were last year which is the numbers posted above but not by much. One other thing to keep in mind is the last/lowest of the top 51 contracts will decrease if we cut guys like Waynes/Johnson for cap space.

$3.916 mil - (3 players times $825k) $2.475 mil leaves us only needing about $1.441 mil in cap space to cover. Not sure where the guy in the tweet is coming up with his numbers but we shouldn’t need much cap space at all for draft picks this year.

If you or someone else could confirm...i thought the 51 rule was only good until the season started? Once the season starts, it's the entire roster.

Yes? No?

[Isaac Curtis: The Real #85]

(03-21-2022, 10:28 AM)Au165 Wrote: Again, that isn't correct. The total value of year 1 rookie deals against the cap will be close to 8.3 million, again pick 31 is over 2 million by themselves. Because of the 51 rule most those guys from day 3 won't count this year but it is much higher than 2.7 for rookies to plan for.

No, it isn't. It is a net situation, not a gross. 

The part you don't get is that the Bengals currently have around 60 guys signed. The top 51 count vs the cap. So, when a rookie is signed to the roster, you have the value of their contract (which is around $8 mil for all our picks). As you correctly say, some of our guys on day 3 will have salary so low they don't currently project as top 51 guys, so don't count vs projected cap totals. 
But you also have a guy making $700k, or $800k, or $900k (usually) coming OFF the books at the same time. For the latter picks, the guy coming off will make more than the rookie. IF all 8 guys roster, you have $8 mil of incoming salary, or more like $6.5 due to top 51. But you will also have 8 (or 6 via 51) guys outgoing. That will be around $5 mil in OUTGOING salary at the same time.

And that is just the estimates. If a rookie replaces a guy making more money that gets released (Fred Johnson, Brandon Wilson, Waynes), then the draft could net us cap space. 

Again, those rookies aren't filling empty roster spots. In everyone's cap calculations, there are already 51 guys taking up space.