Darren Waller

[XenoMorph]

(04-27-2022, 11:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Why wouldn't you trade 31 for him?
He put up 665 yards in just 11 games last year.
He was 10th in the league and missed 6 games.
He's a Top 5 TE when healthy.
Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews, and now probably Pitts.

If you go by the OG Jimmy Johnson trade value chart - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm
Pick 31 - 600 pts
Pick 95 - 120 pts

Trading 31+95 equates to the 25th pick - 720 pts.
You're telling me Darren Waller, a perennial 1000+ yard TE and Top 5 guy at his position, isn't worth the 25th overall pick?

Add in the fact his cap hit is low for a TE nowadays ($6.3 mill and $7 mill) and under contract for 2022 and 2023, he's a great value.

Carr Says it aint happening

[fredtoast]

(04-27-2022, 11:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: You're telling me Darren Waller, a perennial 1000+ yard TE and Top 5 guy at his position, isn't worth the 25th overall pick?

No, because he will never be anything close to a 1000 yd receiver here.  We have 3 WRs who are all better receiving talents than Waller.  If we take targets away from them for Waller then we will be making our offense worse.

He might have high value to another team, but not us.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-27-2022, 11:37 AM)fredtoast Wrote: No, because he will never be anything close to a 1000 yd receiver here.  We have 3 WRs who are all better receiving talents than Waller.  If we take targets away from them for Waller then we will be making our offense worse.

He might have high value to another team, but not us.

Maybe so, but I'd argue he's better than Boyd and would deserve more targets than Boyd.

[Au165]

(04-27-2022, 11:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Why wouldn't you trade 31 for him?
He put up 665 yards in just 11 games last year.
He was 10th in the league and missed 6 games.
He's a Top 5 TE when healthy.
Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews, and now probably Pitts.

If you go by the OG Jimmy Johnson trade value chart - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm
Pick 31 - 600 pts
Pick 95 - 120 pts

Trading 31+95 equates to the 25th pick - 720 pts.
You're telling me Darren Waller, a perennial 1000+ yard TE and Top 5 guy at his position, isn't worth the 25th overall pick?

Add in the fact his cap hit is low for a TE nowadays ($6.3 mill and $7 mill) and under contract for 2022 and 2023, he's a great value.

You guys misunderstood me, I said Waller and a 3rd or 4th for 31….so essentially a 2nd

[BenZoo2]

(04-27-2022, 11:27 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Why wouldn't you trade 31 for him?
He put up 665 yards in just 11 games last year.
He was 10th in the league and missed 6 games.
He's a Top 5 TE when healthy.
Kelce, Kittle, Waller, Andrews, and now probably Pitts.

If you go by the OG Jimmy Johnson trade value chart - https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm
Pick 31 - 600 pts
Pick 95 - 120 pts

Trading 31+95 equates to the 25th pick - 720 pts.
You're telling me Darren Waller, a perennial 1000+ yard TE and Top 5 guy at his position, isn't worth the 25th overall pick?

Add in the fact his cap hit is low for a TE nowadays ($6.3 mill and $7 mill) and under contract for 2022 and 2023, he's a great value.

Read my reply to Murdock.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[*ochocincos*]

(04-27-2022, 11:45 AM)Au165 Wrote: You guys misunderstood me, I said Waller and a 3rd or 4th for 31….so essentially a 2nd

That'd be even better for the Bengals then.
Getting a 3rd or 4th plus Waller for Pick 31? Absolutely.

[Au165]

(04-27-2022, 11:51 AM)ochocincos Wrote: That'd be even better for the Bengals then.
Getting a 3rd or 4th plus Waller for Pick 31? Absolutely.

The rumor was Packers had offered a 2nd so the thought was give similar value in a potentially more attractive package via a 1.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(04-27-2022, 11:41 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Maybe so, but I'd argue he's better than Boyd and would deserve more targets than Boyd.

Waller is definitely better than Boyd. Opposing DC’s have to game plan around the former far more than the latter.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-25-2022, 09:09 PM)ElkValleyBengal Wrote: You can never have too many good players, but you have to weigh the costs.  Waller's current contract is quite palatable, but he only has 2 years left on it.  Not sure you should trade a number one pick (even a late one) for that situation.  Not sure of his situation anyway.  Is he wanting a new contract?  If so, that would essentially make it undoable.

Not to mention, I have a feeling Hurst will open some eyes this season- provided he stays healthy.

I agree on Hurst.  Waller is a beast, but two years of contract remaining prevents me from giving that kind of draft capital.  He seems to be frequently injured as well, but I don't have the stats to back that up.  Either that or he sort of disappears at times.  

Burrow loves the TE position, and although Sample isn't an extraordinary talent as a receiver, he is reliable and a chain-mover.  Between him and Hurst, I think they will have some good opportunities  underneath with Chase and Higgins outside.  

[fredtoast]

(04-27-2022, 12:08 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Waller is definitely better than Boyd. Opposing DC’s have to game plan around the former far more than the latter.

Waller is really no better than Boyd.  He is 2 years older than Boyd and his production dropped off last year.  Waller did nothing his first three years in the league (total of 18 receptions), but if you compare his average over his last 3 seasons to Boyds last 4 seasons you will see that they are pretty close.

Boyd.....78 rec... 936 yds...12.0 avg...5.3 td...67.8 catch%...8.1 yd/target
Waller...84 rec...1002 yds...11.9 avg...4.7 td...71.0 catch%...8.5 yd/target

But there are a couple of areas where Boyd is far ahead of Waller.  Over the last 4 seasons only 3 players have more receptions than Tyler Boyd on 3rd/4th down and only 4 players have converted more first downs.  Over Waller's best three seasons he ranks 22nd in 3rd/4th down receptions and 25th in first downs.  Also Waller's drop rate is 50% higher than Boyd's (3.9% to 2.6%)

[Bengalbug]

(04-28-2022, 10:32 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Waller is really no better than Boyd.  He is 2 years older than Boyd and his production dropped off last year.  Waller did nothing his first three years in the league (total of 18 receptions), but if you compare his average over his last 3 seasons to Boyds last 4 seasons you will see that they are pretty close.

Boyd.....78 rec... 936 yds...12.0 avg...5.3 td...67.8 catch%...8.1 yd/target
Waller...84 rec...1002 yds...11.9 avg...4.7 td...71.0 catch%...8.5 yd/target

But there are a couple of areas where Boyd is far ahead of Waller.  Over the last 4 seasons only 3 players have more receptions than Tyler Boyd on 3rd/4th down and only 4 players have converted more first downs.  Over Waller's best three seasons he ranks 22nd in 3rd/4th down receptions and 25th in first downs.  Also Waller's drop rate is 50% higher than Boyd's (3.9% to 2.6%)

Comparing a TE production to a WR is silly.

23 WRs had 1,000 yards last year to just 3 tight ends.

Having an elite TE that can single hand idly take over a game is far more valuable than a 3rd WR.

[fredtoast]

(04-28-2022, 03:22 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: Having an elite TE that can single hand idly take over a game is far more valuable than a 3rd WR.

Waller can not "single handedly take over a game".  He greatest season in the NFL he averaged 74 receiving yards a game.  He has only scored 16 tds in 65 games.  

Yards, tds, and converting 3rd downs all have the same value no matter if they come from a TE or a WR.  If a WR can do more of these then he is more valuable than a TE.

[Frank Booth]

(04-28-2022, 03:52 PM)fredtoast Wrote: Waller can not "single handedly take over a game".  He greatest season in the NFL he averaged 74 receiving yards a game.  He has only scored 16 tds in 65 games.  

Yards, tds, and converting 3rd downs all have the same value no matter if they come from a TE or a WR.  If a WR can do more of these then he is more valuable than a TE.

I also agree with this. WR's have higher ceilings and can do more for the passing attack