(Hypothetical) Who Would You Take at 31 in This Scenario?

[*ochocincos*]

If all of the following 30 players were off the board when the Bengals select at 31, who would you select from players still available and why?
NOTE - No trading the pick for this

8 DL off the board:
Hutchinson
Thibodeaux
Karlaftis
Johnson II
Walker
Davis
Leal
Wyatt

7 OL off the board:
Neal
Ekwonu
Cross
Penning
Green
Johnson
Linderbaum

7 DBs off the board:
Stingley
Gardner
Hamilton
Hill
Elam
McDuffie
Booth

4 WRs off the board:
Williams
Olave
Wilson
London

2 LBs off the board:
Lloyd
Dean

2 QBs off the board:
Willis
Pickett

[*bfine32*]

Kyler Gordon

[*Synric*]

Hard decision Kyler Gordon and Perrion Winfrey would be the top two guys on the board but you have a slider in Treylon Burks....


Since Bfine went Gordon ill go with Perrion Winfrey lol.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-09-2022, 01:19 PM)Synric Wrote: Hard decision Kyler Gordon and Perrion Winfrey would be the top two guys on the board but you have a slider in Treylon Burks....


Since Bfine went Gordon ill go with Perrion Winfrey lol.

I originally had both Burks and Winfrey in my list and realized I had 32 listed lol.
Thought about keeping them in with just one QB and LB listed, but I figured probably two of each position would go Top 30.

[*bfine32*]

(04-09-2022, 01:19 PM)Synric Wrote: Hard decision Kyler Gordon and Perrion Winfrey would be the top two guys on the board but you have a slider in Treylon Burks....


Since Bfine went Gordon ill go with Perrion Winfrey lol.

So that means Burks is the best choice. 

[*Synric*]

(04-09-2022, 01:24 PM)bfine32 Wrote: So that means Burks is the best choice. 

Treylon Burks is fun to watch. He didn't have a good 40 but he is football fast. He ran by just about every defense he was up against. Big long great hands... I have him rated a little higher than Gordon and Winfrey but all 3 are very very close. I wouldn't complain about any of them even the receiver lol.

[kevin]

I like the work you put in. It's hard to get my mind around. Mostly because all these players are NOT going to be off the board. There will probably be more than 2 quarterbacks taken, maybe as many as 4.

We can add The Steelers with Big Ben retiring and now the tragic car crash death of that Ohio State QB Haskins that Washington drafted very early in round 1. Washington is a team that we now know has been all messed up, and they never knew how to use RG3 or Haskins. My word, they had RG3 running the Wishbone, and you can't run the Wishbone in the NFL. As Dick Butkis, the great Bears linebacker said, if they ever tried to run the Wishbone on us, by the 3rd play I would put their quarterback in the hospital. That is what happened to RG3 as one of his first games was against Bengals, and Washington even had RG3 running The Statue Of Liberty Play, and Bengals and Defenses could just clobber him. Washington didn't use Ohio State Haskins right either. Haskins is NOT a running quarterback. WHY do people think every black quarterback is a running quarterback. Haskins was a big, strong armed, passing quarterback like a Big Ben. Both are hard to tackle, but that does not make them running quarterbacks. Same with Boomer Esiason.

My point on Haskins is that Washington used him wrong. He is not a Cam Newton, Haskins was more like Big Ben. Haskins could have been the guy to replace Big Ben. Sadly, Haskins was just killed in a car crash. I think The Steelers are going to have to go Quarterback in Round One. If you are in dire need of a starting Quarterback, then THAT is what you MUST draft.

So my point is more than 2 quarterbacks will go before Pick 31, Maybe 3 or 4 quarterbacks per ESPN and CBS Mock Drafts.

So I respect your hard work on this list, but I feel there are many names on it who WILL be there at Pick 31.

Here is something I can get my mind around. Bengals after Free Agent O Line and Tight Ends are talking DEFENSE on Bengals.com So I'm thinking D Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back. The Best Defensive Player that drops into The Bengals lap at Pick 31, will be The Pick. It all depends how the Draft plays out, and who The Bengals have on Their Boards. Myself, I like Wyatt at D Line, and teams taking Quarterbacks could just drop Wyatt down to us. I like Wyatt because he is Big and Fast enough to play DE and DT, and Bengals could use a Dan Big Daddy Wilkinson who can play all across the D Line, IF HE FALLS to Pick 31

I will bet the farm that it will NOT be an O Lineman or a Tight End. Bengals have hit that hard in Free Agency. IT WILL BE DEFENSE at Pick 31, and THAT you can bet on. A good D Lineman, or Linebacker, or Cornerback, or Safety, but IT WILL BE DEFENSE at Pick 31. We can take that Center off the board, Bengals filled that in Free Agency.

ADD ON : Here are teams ESPN and CBS have taking a QB before Pick 31. ....Steelers, Seahawks, Panthers, Packers....and IF that happens, somebody DEFENSE is going to DROP to Bengals at Pick 31.

[WVUHomer]

Winfrey in 1st then hope one of the next tier of DBs is around in 2

[*ochocincos*]

(04-09-2022, 01:43 PM)kevin Wrote: I like the work you put in.  It's hard to get my mind around.  Mostly because all these players are NOT going to be off the board.  There will probably be more than 2 quarterbacks taken, maybe as many as 4.  

We can add The Steelers with Big Ben retiring and now the tragic car crash death of that Ohio State QB Haskins that Washington drafted very early in round 1.  Washington is a team that we now know has been all messed up, and they never knew how to use RG3 or Haskins.  My word, they had RG3 running the Wishbone, and you can't run the Wishbone in the NFL.  As Dick Butkis, the great Bears linebacker said, if they ever tried to run the Wishbone on us, by the 3rd play I would put their quarterback in the hospital.  That is what happened to RG3 as one of his first games was against Bengals, and Washington even had RG3 running The Statue Of Liberty Play, and Bengals and Defenses could just clobber him.  Washington didn't use Ohio State Haskins right either. Haskins is NOT a running quarterback. WHY do people think every black quarterback is a running quarterback.  Haskins was a big, strong armed, passing quarterback like a Big Ben. Both are hard to tackle, but that does not make them running quarterbacks. Same with Boomer Esiason.  

My point on Haskins is that Washington used him wrong. He is not a Cam Newton, Haskins was more like Big Ben. Haskins could have been the guy to replace Big Ben. Sadly, Haskins was just killed in a car crash.  I think The Steelers are going to have to go Quarterback in Round One.  If you are in dire need of a starting Quarterback, then THAT is what you MUST draft.

So my point is more than 2 quarterbacks will go before Pick 31,  Maybe 3 or 4 quarterbacks per ESPN and CBS Mock Drafts.

So I respect your hard work on this list, but I feel there are many names on it who WILL be there at Pick 31.

Here is something I can get my mind around. Bengals after Free Agent O Line and Tight Ends are talking DEFENSE on Bengals.com  So I'm thinking D Line, Linebacker, Defensive Back.  The Best Defensive Player that drops into The Bengals lap at Pick 31, will be The Pick.  It all depends how the Draft plays out, and who The Bengals have on Their Boards.  Myself, I like Wyatt at D Line, and teams taking Quarterbacks could just drop Wyatt down to us.  I like Wyatt because he is Big and Fast enough to play DE and DT, and Bengals could use a Dan Big Daddy Wilkinson who can play all across the D Line, IF HE FALLS to Pick 31

I will bet the farm that it will NOT be an O Lineman or a Tight End.  Bengals have hit that hard in Free Agency. IT WILL BE DEFENSE at Pick 31, and THAT you can bet on. A good D Lineman, or Linebacker, or Cornerback, or Safety, but IT WILL BE DEFENSE at Pick 31.  We can take that Center off the board, Bengals filled that in Free Agency.

The intent of this hypothetical scenario is meant to be almost a worst-case situation.
Most of the guys we and many experts have predicted for the Bengals are gone in this scenario.
You're right, there may end up being another QB or two taken. There might be some other players taken, but that's not the point.

You didn't really answer the question of the OP though, which is who would you take if those 30 aren't available.

[CJD]

The first thing I'd do is try to trade down.

If I couldn't then my list would be:
1. Arnold Ebiketie
2. Kyler Gordon
3. David Ojabo
4. Lewis Cine
5. Logan Hall

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Arnold E. He is a little small at 6'2" 250 lb, but he has long arms (34 1/8"), great speed (4.66 40 yard dash) and elite athleticism.

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21077

He had 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2021.

31 may be a tad too high for him considering his size, but I think he would add significant juice to our pass rush and, along with Joseph Ossai, should make our defense even more dangerous.

Gordon would be my second choice, although his 40 time (4.52) does scare me. What also scares me is he sat on that 40 time at his pro day, meaning he didn't think he'd be able to beat it. So is he actually even slower than that?

Historically, the Bengals have not shied away from 4.5 CBs, as Dennard and Kirkpatrick both ran a 4.51. Leon Hall ran a 4.42, but most people were surprised by that because they expected him to run in the 4.5s as well.

The good news with Gordon is he has elite athleticism in pretty much every other category. He has an RAS of 9.69, with an elite vertical jump, broad jump, bench press, shuttle and 3 cone drill. His speed splits are merely "good" though.

I think we could probably get either of these players with a trade down, but if we do trade down and both of them are picked up early in the 2nd, I also like Ojabo, Cine and Hall. The lowest I'd be willing to trade down to is about 40 though. Net us an early 3rd round pick and still get a quality player. Trading below 40 risks us having to dig even deeper into our draft chart and I don't want to do that. I still want a day 1 starter with our first pick and past 40, CB contributions go way down, https://theathletic.com/3237194/2022/04/08/bengals-nfl-draft-cornerback/

Quote:But what are the odds a player picked in each of those first three slots for the Bengals could play at a level equal to or better than Apple did last year?

We use a minimum of 500 outside corner snaps to determine the qualifiers over the last three draft classes. Here are the results:

---

PLAYER                TEAM YEAR DRAFTED PFF GRADE

Cameron Dantzler Vikings 2020 89               70.9

Greg Newsome II Browns 2021 26               68.1
Patrick Surtain II Broncos 2021 9                 66.1
Eric Stokes Packers 2021 29                        65.5
Rock Ya-Sin Colts 2019 34                           65.3
Tyson Campbell Jaguars 2021 33                 62.7
Trevon Diggs Cowboys 2020 51                   62.7
Trayvon Mullen Raiders 2019 40                  62.5
A.J. Terrell Falcons 2020 16                        60.8
Paulson Adebo Saints 2021 76                    60.3
Nik Needham Dolphins 2019 UFA                59.9
Asante Samuel Jr. Chargers 2021 47           56.4
Jaylon Johnson Bears 2020 50                   54.9
Greedy Williams Browns 2019 46               54.6
Michael Ojemudia Broncos 2020 77            48.7
Marco Wilson Cardinals 2021 136               48.6
DeAndre Baker Giants 2019 30                  48.4
Byron Murphy Cardinals 2019 33               48.3
Brandin Echols Jets 2021 201                   45



The cut-off shows up at the 40th pick. Of those picked in the top 40, only two of the nine qualifiers played well below average. Six of the 10 qualifiers picked after that were well below average. Only Cameron Dantzler and Trevon Diggs enjoyed successful rookie seasons.

For those curious, Lewis Cine has a nearly perfect RAS (9.92):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21650
David Ojabo (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21419
Logan Hall (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21074

Athletic scores aren't everything, but when they're paired with great or elite production, as is the case with Arnold E, Ojabo, Gordon and Cine, you have a really good prospect profile.

Hall is a bit of a wild card, as he requires a lot more projection, but you don't often see defensive tackles move that well, even if he is undersized (283 lbs). I think he's just a little overshadowed because Both Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis happened to be even more elite athletic profiles at DT in the same draft class haha.

[puddycat]

Top on my Board:
Raimann OT- I'm not sold on Smith, Prince, or no injuries. Hopefully stuck on depth chart for a couple of years.
McCreary CB - Criminally underrated - especially after improving his 40 at his pro day. Cause he's got short arms. - likely to see field
Burks WR- Great potential #4 some questions at slot. - likely to see field
Gordon -CB More position versatility than McCreary, but less scheme versatility. Needs to improve tackling. - has bust potential IMO

[NUGDUKWE]

That's a tough one. I immediately thought Receiver because I know there will be more than 4 off the board by the time we draft. But I would probably say Winfrey as he fits more of a need. Honestly if the board went like this I'd be hoping we trade back and pick up an extra pick.

[pulses]

(04-09-2022, 02:18 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: The first thing I'd do is try to trade down.

If I couldn't then my list would be:
1. Arnold Ebiketie
2. Kyler Gordon
3. David Ojabo
4. Lewis Cine
5. Logan Hall

I think a lot of people are sleeping on Arnold E. He is a little small at 6'2" 250 lb, but he has long arms (34 1/8"), great speed (4.66 40 yard dash) and elite athleticism.

https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21077

He had 18 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 2021.

31 may be a tad too high for him considering his size, but I think he would add significant juice to our pass rush and, along with Joseph Ossai, should make our defense even more dangerous.

Gordon would be my second choice, although his 40 time (4.52) does scare me. What also scares me is he sat on that 40 time at his pro day, meaning he didn't think he'd be able to beat it. So is he actually even slower than that?

Historically, the Bengals have not shied away from 4.5 CBs, as Dennard and Kirkpatrick both ran a 4.51. Leon Hall ran a 4.42, but most people were surprised by that because they expected him to run in the 4.5s as well.

The good news with Gordon is he has elite athleticism in pretty much every other category. He has an RAS of 9.69, with an elite vertical jump, broad jump, bench press, shuttle and 3 cone drill. His speed splits are merely "good" though.

I think we could probably get either of these players with a trade down, but if we do trade down and both of them are picked up early in the 2nd, I also like Ojabo, Cine and Hall. The lowest I'd be willing to trade down to is about 40 though. Net us an early 3rd round pick and still get a quality player. Trading below 40 risks us having to dig even deeper into our draft chart and I don't want to do that. I still want a day 1 starter with our first pick and past 40, CB contributions go way down, https://theathletic.com/3237194/2022/04/08/bengals-nfl-draft-cornerback/


For those curious, Lewis Cine has a nearly perfect RAS (9.92):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21650
David Ojabo (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21419
Logan Hall (9.39):
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=21074

Athletic scores aren't everything, but when they're paired with great or elite production, as is the case with Arnold E, Ojabo, Gordon and Cine, you have a really good prospect profile.

Hall is a bit of a wild card, as he requires a lot more projection, but you don't often see defensive tackles move that well, even if he is undersized (283 lbs). I think he's just a little overshadowed because Both Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis happened to be even more elite athletic profiles at DT in the same draft class haha.

Why not just take CB Zyon McCollum then his  RAS was a perfect 10.

[CJD]

(04-09-2022, 03:41 PM)pulses Wrote: Why not just take CB Zyon McCollum then his  RAS was a perfect 10.

Athletic scores aren't everything, but when they're paired with great or elite production, as is the case with Arnold E, Ojabo, Gordon and Cine, you have a really good prospect profile.

As I already said.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[phil413]

(04-09-2022, 03:21 PM)puddycat Wrote: Top on my Board:
Raimann OT- I'm not sold on Smith, Prince, or no injuries.  Hopefully stuck on depth chart for a couple of years.
McCreary CB - Criminally underrated - especially after improving his 40 at his pro day. Cause he's got short arms. - likely to see field
Burks WR- Great potential #4 some questions at slot. - likely to see field
Gordon -CB  More position versatility than McCreary, but less scheme versatility. Needs to improve tackling. - has bust potential IMO

Good topic, solid posts, agree with crazy that Ebiketie has solid value and the reservations for Gordon.  

For me: 

1. A trade as mentioned, someone WILL want this pick.  If Seattle or Atlanta aren't the teams that took a QB, either may pony up for Corral, especially with Atlanta giving pick #82 if they want him bad enough.  I can't justify any of taking any of these guys vs picks 43 and 82.  If they really do love McBride he could make sense here (though I'd rather wait with this TE class depth) or get the corner need out of the way with the safe pick McCreary.  I think he could still be here and there are bigger risk corners (nickle types, man only, inconsistent, ect...), but if you lose out on both you still get a really good player at 43 and 82.  Something like:

43: CB Roger McCreary
63: DT DeMarvin Leal
82: TE Greg Dulcich
95: G   Darian Kinnard 


2. I'm with puddycat that Raimann is BPA and the big question would be can he play LG?  From a sheer value standpoint a starter level tackle is valuable, if he can play both you really need to consider him.  Let's not forget that Jonah isn't signed long term and Cincy doesn't have the luxury to pay "whatever it takes" at multiple positions if a huge chunk long term is going to Burrow and Chase. 

3. Tough call.  I'd want a good handle on what Lou plans to do on defense.  Ebiketie has good upside a situational rusher as a rookie, but would we be looking to rotate him and Ossai in there heavily with Henrickson or Hubbard rotating inside on some looks, or playing more 3 man fronts at times?  If you can justify a plan for a BPA DE/RUSH then great, but if not the safe pick would be getting the biggest need....CB out of the way.  Gordon has better upside than McCreary here, but depends on their plans.  

  

[Whatever]

(04-09-2022, 01:30 PM)Synric Wrote: Treylon Burks is fun to watch. He didn't have a good 40 but he is football fast. He ran by just about every defense he was up against. Big long great hands... I have him rated a little higher than Gordon and Winfrey but all 3 are very very close. I wouldn't complain about any of them even the receiver lol.

Burks is one of those picks where you are basically just flipping the bird to the entire room.  I would probably still go Gordon, though.

[*bengalfan74*]

It would be hard to pass on Burks there.

[OSUfan]

In no particular order:

Kyler Gordon - CB - Washington

Logan Hall - DL - Houston

Jaquan Brisker - S - Penn State

[pulses]

(04-09-2022, 04:07 PM)Crazyjdawg Wrote: Athletic scores aren't everything, but when they're paired with great or elite production, as is the case with Arnold E, Ojabo, Gordon and Cine, you have a really good prospect profile.

As I already said.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

Of all the other CB's who scored as close to his score in the history of keeping track since 1987 4 of the 5 are HOF'ers so you might wanna look again....

[CJD]

(04-09-2022, 07:55 PM)pulses Wrote: Of all the other CB's who scored as close to his score in the history of keeping track since 1987 4 of the 5 are HOF'ers so you might wanna look again....

That Franchise Guy (Marcus Whitman) thinks the Texans are going to take McCollum at the top of the second round and references his athleticism (and his connection to the Houston area) as a reason why. It's a little rich for my blood because we're ultimately looking for someone who can contribute from day 1 and I don't think McCollum is that. However, his athleticism is tantalizing and if we took him at 31, I wouldn't be devastated. I think it's just a half round too early for him.

The tone of your post impllied that you were saying, sarcastically, "If you only care about RAS, here's a guy with a 10."

I think RAS is a really good way of comparing players who have similar production or similar projection to the NFL, but it's far from my end all, be all.

I know Jelani Woods, the TE out of Virginia also scored a 10 and has been linked to the Bengals in the 2nd round a lot since his pro day, but his tape is ROUGH. I don't want the Bengals to take him until the 3rd or 4th round at the earliest.