Zac's use of shotgun.

[fredtoast]

Interesting stats on Bengals' offense from shotgun formation compared to other.  First of all, everyone understands "yards per play".

ypp shotgun... 6.8 (#1 in league)
ypp other....... 4.7 (22)
difference...... 2.1 (#1 in favor of shotgun)

FootballOutsiders DVOA formula weighs gains based on down and distance.  A 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 is much more valuable than on 2nd and 10.

DVOA shotgun... 12th
DVOA other....... 25th
Difference.........  1st

It seems pretty clear that we were a MUCH better offense out of the shotgun.  

So why we were 18th in the league in percentage of plays ran out of the shotgun formation?

[fredtoast]

We only ran 62.8% of our plays from the shotgun.  5 teams used it more than 80% of the time.  Based on the numbers above if the Bengals had used the shotgun 80% of the time their offense would have been 5th in yards instead of 13th.

In real life it would not be nearly that simple.  But when your offense has the biggest difference in the league in shotgun over other it seems like we should have been higher than 18th in percentage of shotgun plays.

[Yogo]

I don't remember the Rams with Goff and Gurley being in shotgun as much as we are. Must be a Zach thing or a protection thing.

[*SHRacerX*]

(04-14-2022, 01:51 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Interesting stats on Bengals' offense from shotgun formation compared to other.  First of all, everyone understands "yards per play".

ypp shotgun... 6.8 (#1 in league)
ypp other....... 4.7 (22)
difference...... 2.1 (#1 in favor of shotgun)

FootballOutsiders DVOA formula weighs gains based on down and distance.  A 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 is much more valuable than on 2nd and 10.

DVOA shotgun... 12th
DVOA other....... 25th
Difference.........  1st

It seems pretty clear that we were a MUCH better offense out of the shotgun.  

So why we were 18th in the league in percentage of plays ran out of the shotgun formation?

Simplest answer to me is that Burrow loves working out of the gun, and can read things very well out of the gun, but he was getting drilled every time he let go of the ball.  The non-gun snaps were trying to protect him, since the line wasn't really doing that.  

I would be interested to see how many shotgun snaps he had against the Titans and in the Super Bowl, as they were willing to let him get hit (crazy number of sacks) at that point to win the game.  

Just my two cents.  

[Gdale_Bengal]

Protection should be better this year so there’s a possibility they run shotgun even less

[fredtoast]

(04-14-2022, 08:16 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Protection should be better this year so there’s a possibility they run shotgun even less

I don't see what better protection has to do with running less shotgun.

[fredtoast]

(04-14-2022, 07:54 AM)SHRacerX Wrote: I would be interested to see how many shotgun snaps he had against the Titans and in the Super Bowl, as they were willing to let him get hit (crazy number of sacks) at that point to win the game.  

Reiff was out and Spain was injured.  There was really nothing they could do to help our line at that point.

[fredtoast]

(04-14-2022, 09:15 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: 3rd and shorts are better converted with runs coming from under center and not from trying to throw for firsts more often.

Short yardage running is more effective from the shotgun.

I was really hoping to avoid opening this can of worms again.  Maybe people will accept the facts if they are not obsessed with just one single play.

[KillerGoose]

(04-14-2022, 09:15 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Something about burrow taking a 3-5 step drop from under center and there are defenders in his face and scrambling.

3rd and shorts are better converted with runs coming from under center and not from trying to throw for firsts more often.

Fred already mentioned it, but by and large, short yardage runs are converted at a higher percentage in shotgun rather than under center. There was already a massive thread on this so I am not going to carry the conversation further than this post but shotgun runs are more effective in nearly every single scenario on the field. 

Really, shotgun is probably just the better way to run an offense right now. You have more flexibility and variety in what you can do in a modern offense. I don't see Cincinnati veering away from it. 

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-14-2022, 09:51 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Fred already mentioned it, but by and large, short yardage runs are converted at a higher percentage in shotgun rather than under center. There was already a massive thread on this so I am not going to carry the conversation further than this post but shotgun runs are more effective in nearly every single scenario on the field. 

Really, shotgun is probably just the better way to run an offense right now. You have more flexibility and variety in what you can do in a modern offense. I don't see Cincinnati veering away from it. 

I also think running it out of shotgun keeps the defense off balance. They are expecting a pass in most cases and getting a run. Some of the most effective runs are when the defense doesn't see it coming. 

It seemed like last year most of our runs came out of a heavy formation when the defense knew it was coming. I'd rather get away from that and keep the defense guessing more. With better blocking we should be able to do more play action out of heavy set though--making it a more effective formation with better blocking.

That said, I'd like to see more shotgun and hurry up with throws to the back and quick draws mixed in to keep the defense honest.

[BigPapaKain]

(04-14-2022, 09:15 AM)Gdale_Bengal Wrote: Something about burrow taking a 3-5 step drop from under center and there are defenders in his face and scrambling.

3rd and shorts are better converted with runs coming from under center and not from trying to throw for firsts more often.

(04-14-2022, 09:18 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Short yardage running is more effective from the shotgun.

I was really hoping to avoid opening this can of worms again.  Maybe people will accept the facts if they are not obsessed with just one single play.

I was waiting for this.

Now we just need one other ingredient and we'll have a full shit storm brewing. C'mon!

[Gdale_Bengal]

Jesus **** I’m not trying to open a can of worms here. I don’t have time to deal with every ***** thread. I was wrong. I won’t post on another damn toast thread again. Good god.

[KillerGoose]

(04-14-2022, 10:03 AM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: I also think running it out of shotgun keeps the defense off balance. They are expecting a pass in most cases and getting a run. Some of the most effective runs are when the defense doesn't see it coming. 

It seemed like last year most of our runs came out of a heavy formation when the defense knew it was coming. I'd rather get away from that and keep the defense guessing more. With better blocking we should be able to do more play action out of heavy set though--making it a more effective formation with better blocking.

That said, I'd like to see more shotgun and hurry up with throws to the back and quick draws mixed in to keep the defense honest.

It introduces some ambiguity, yeah. There is also the constant threat of RPO's, which really put stress on those LBers. 

More interesting stats. When Cincinnati ran a play in shotgun, they had the 4th best EPA per play in the league. When they ran a play from under center, that ranking dropped to 26th. 

[*ochocincos*]

Some other interesting tidbits from https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/offense/play-frequency/snap-rates-shotgun-under-center-2021/

Bengals run vs pass in shotgun:
Run - 16%
Pass - 84%

Run vs pass under center:
Run - 42%
Pass - 58%

So I'm assuming they didn't run shotgun more often because teams knew that they'd be much more likely to pass than run when doing that...?

[2MinutesHate]

(04-14-2022, 10:18 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Some other interesting tidbits from https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/nfl-stats/offense/play-frequency/snap-rates-shotgun-under-center-2021/

Bengals run vs pass in shotgun:
Run - 16%
Pass - 84%

Run vs pass under center:
Run - 42%
Pass - 58%

So I'm assuming they didn't run shotgun more often because teams knew that they'd be much more likely to pass than run when doing that...?

So what you're trying to say is that we need Brian and Zac to come up with more run plays for the shotgun formation?  Then maybe we can all get along....

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 11:16 AM)2MinutesHate Wrote: So what you're trying to say is that we need Brian and Zac to come up with more run plays for the shotgun formation?  Then maybe we can all get along....

Yea maybe.
I don't have the YPC from shotgun vs under center, so maybe that's why they predominantly pass from it.

[KillerGoose]

(04-14-2022, 11:20 AM)ochocincos Wrote: Yea maybe.
I don't have the YPC from shotgun vs under center, so maybe that's why they predominantly pass from it.

The Bengals averaged 4.03 YPC when running from under center and 4.08 out of shotgun. Negligible difference. 

[*ochocincos*]

(04-14-2022, 11:29 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals averaged 4.03 YPC when running from under center and 4.08 out of shotgun. Negligible difference. 

Awesome thanks.
It does make you wonder why they didn't try to run more from shotgun then and also why they just didn't do more shotgun snaps in general.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-14-2022, 11:29 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: The Bengals averaged 4.03 YPC when running from under center and 4.08 out of shotgun. Negligible difference. 

Yea not a big one there.

but i am interested to see how if the difference can widen with better blocking. That's been our issue so far.

[Tony]

You think it would be easier to run out of the shotgun, because, the defense would think Pass more than if you were under center...