Threads from the Enemy: 2022 NFL Draft in the AFC North

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I thought I'd bring back this thread series for draft week, since it's always good to keep an eye on what the opposition is thinking even during the offseason. I'll limit it just to AFC North teams, since they're the premier competition standing in the way of the Bengals' 2022 success. If there's concern about this being relevant to the Bengals' forum, I think anything in-division is relevant and many of the prospects Bengals fans are targeting might also be targeted by those that we loathe most.

Pittsburgh Steelers

http://thesteelersfans.com/forums/threads/too-many-holes-to-trade-up.28442/

http://thesteelersfans.com/forums/threads/hypothetical-draft-question-if-pickett-willis-or-ridder-is-there-20-do-the-steelers-draft-a-qb.28472/

http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/52234-The-ONE-player-you-would-trade-up-for

http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/52247-Draft-capital-and-trading-down

http://www.planetsteelers.com/forums/showthread.php/52243-Poll-Rank-MTrubisky-vs-2022-QB-Class

http://www.steelersuniverse.com/forums/showthread.php/33745-Hypothetical-draft-question-If-Pickett-Willis-or-Ridder-is-there-20-do-the-Steelers-draft-a-QB

http://www.steelersuniverse.com/forums/showthread.php/33720-Which-QB-prospect-will-have-the-most-success

http://www.steelersuniverse.com/forums/showthread.php/33567-Players-Who-Visited-with-the-Steelers

Unsurprisingly, the big focus in Steeler nation for the draft is on quarterbacks. I'm not sure they're even going to take a quarterback, but regardless when QB is on the table it is naturally going to absorb the dialogue. They have had numerous pre-draft QB visits, to be fair. I expected a decent amount of homerism over Kenny Pickett, but there isn't as much as one might think -- a lot of Steelers fans either think he'll be gone (Panthers @ 6 overall) or that he just isn't good enough for a first round selection. Instead the ones going after QB are focused on Malik Willis. I really like that 5th link up there though in which they're comparing Trubisky to this QB class and, in some cases, kind of realizing that these picks might represent lateral moves or worse.

I've seen a number of mocks projecting certain Bengals fan favorite targets to Pittsburgh, either players we literally desire (e.g., Linderbaum or Wyatt) or in later rounds Bearcats that none of us want to see in that city (e.g., Ridder or Pierce). We might want to mentally prepare ourselves for that kind of thing coming to pass, because it's quite plausible.

Cleveland Browns

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/Contents/looking-at-this-draft-class-pick-34-to-150-186333139/?page=1

https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/board/105323/Contents/the-draft-it-is-starting-to-look-interesting-down-to-9-days-185782093/?page=1

https://www.dawgtalkers.net/ubbthreads.php/topics/1936020/pre-draft-afc-contenders#Post1936020 ***

https://www.thebrownsboard.com/topic/64048-2022-draft-prospects-and-off-season-addition-breakdowns/

https://www.barkinghard.com/forums/threads/in-the-upcoming-draft-who-is-most-likely-to-be-overdrafted.490163/

https://www.barkinghard.com/forums/threads/pre-draft-visit-thread-for-2022.489697/

*** This isn't exactly a draft thread, but some of y'all might still enjoy taking a look. It's interesting to see what division rivals, outside the context of smack talk idiocy, actually believe about the state of the division/conference and their place in it. Some of them view the Bengals as a major Super Bowl threat, and others think we're due for the obligatory regression to the mean. We'll see.

Browns fans seem to be a bit all over the place on their draft prospects (probably because they gave up premium picks for Watson). The vague consensus seems to be on targeting edge rushers and wide receivers, both of which would make plenty of sense given that Clowney still isn't signed and their WR/TE group was annihilated by free agency and trades unless you believe Amari Cooper makes up the difference (I don't).

Baltimore Ravens

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?226417-Ravens-2022-Draft-Visits

https://forum.russellstreetreport.com/showthread.php?222886-Post-your-Mock-Draft

https://purpleflock.com/threads/3734/page-94

One potential nuisance of the first round of the draft may prove to be that many of the Bengals' most likely targets align with the Ravens' biggest needs. Your favorite cornerback prospect might very well end up wearing purple next season, so be wary about those hopes you may get up. Granted, they're more in the McDuffie range than the Elam/Booth range, so perhaps it won't matter. But it could. Some of their fans have also taken a liking to Linderbaum, understandably. My biggest anticipatory irritation would be if they end up with Karlaftis.

[Murdock2420]

The amount of talk and debate about Ridder with the steelers is really upsetting. I want to see Ridder do well but could in no way pull for him as a steeler..

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(04-20-2022, 03:22 PM)Murdock2420 Wrote: The amount of talk and debate about Ridder with the steelers is really upsetting. I want to see Ridder do well but could in no way pull for him as a steeler..

Agreed, and I actually think he's the second-best prospect behind only Willis. He'd probably grow into something there, so yikes.

On the other hand, if they take a QB at #20, they're leaving a defensive back or offensive lineman or edge rusher to drop closer to us. We'll be okay.

[Whacked]

Cool info JJJ
Thanks

[Speedy Thomas]

Great job JJJ. It's always entertaining to see what the cretins in the other AFC North cities are thinking. As opposed to what's on our genius minds.

Just wonderful to see Shittsburgh wallowing in QB hell. Are they really debating the merits of Mitchell Trubisky against this year's class? ROFL

[BFritz21]

Nice work.

I PRAY that the Steelers take a quarterback in the first round because, like you said, it would be, at best, a lateral move and would prevent them from improving at another position.

I think the Ravens go edge rusher or inside backer before corner or center, so we should be safe there.

Browns are a dumpster fire.

All of those fanbases have to be in panic mode.

[StrictlyBiz]

(04-27-2022, 12:58 AM)BFritz21 Wrote: Nice work.

I PRAY that the Steelers take a quarterback in the first round because, like you said, it would be, at best, a lateral move and would prevent them from improving at another position.


All of those fanbases have to be in panic mode.

Good observation. If the best this draft class can be is Trubisky-like, it doesn't make sense to take a qb. If Trubisky can mature, grow, and reach his draft position potential, then they wouldn't need anyone. That's a big 'if.'

But it appears that they did just that. The things that I will say with Pickett though, is that being the safe pick that he is, if he is = to Mitch, at least they have him for two additional years and cheaply. I doubt he will be worse than Mitch. 

Also, you have to believe that their familiarity with him makes them trust that he can be more than what everyone is projecting. Given their shared training facilities, the Panthers and Steelers interact everyday. They are pretty much one big team. He's practically been a Steeler for 5 years now. Of course that could cause them to over focus on him, but you have to trust that they can take the emotion out of it. Thats kinda a requirement of the job. 

I guess we shall see. I've got hopes that he can grow into a really good QB soon. But maybe I an idiot? Who knows?  

[BFritz21]

(04-29-2022, 08:28 AM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Good observation. If the best this draft class can be is Trubisky-like, it doesn't make sense to take a qb. If Trubisky can mature, grow, and reach his draft position potential, then they wouldn't need anyone. That's a big 'if.'

But it appears that they did just that. The things that I will say with Pickett though, is that being the safe pick that he is, if he is = to Mitch, at least they have him for two additional years and cheaply. I doubt he will be worse than Mitch. 

Also, you have to believe that their familiarity with him makes them trust that he can be more than what everyone is projecting. Given their shared training facilities, the Panthers and Steelers interact everyday. They are pretty much one big team. He's practically been a Steeler for 5 years now. Of course that could cause them to over focus on him, but you have to trust that they can take the emotion out of it. Thats kinda a requirement of the job. 

I guess we shall see. I've got hopes that he can grow into a really good QB soon. But maybe I an idiot? Who knows?  

But that doesn't seem like the typical Steelers move. Having a mediocre cheap for two extra years that's not better than what you have is better than getting a quarterback that can possibly make you competitive or even good is better than waiting to get a good quarterback in a year?

Next year's draft class is loaded at quarterback and, while it's not like Pickett is expensive, I highly doubt they cut-bait after one year, especially when Trubisky will likely be the starter this year.

It just seems like they panicked and didn't think it through too much.

Wouldn't you have rather they waited and made a pick that can help them immediately or even next year when they do draft a good quarterback?

[StrictlyBiz]

(04-29-2022, 03:08 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: But that doesn't seem like the typical Steelers move. Having a mediocre cheap for two extra years that's not better than what you have is better than getting a quarterback that can possibly make you competitive or even good is better than waiting to get a good quarterback in a year?

Next year's draft class is loaded at quarterback and, while it's not like Pickett is expensive, I highly doubt they cut-bait after one year, especially when Trubisky will likely be the starter this year.

It just seems like they panicked and didn't think it through too much.

Wouldn't you have rather they waited and made a pick that can help them immediately or even next year when they do draft a good quarterback?

This is tough for me. My kid goes to Pitt and is in the Drumline, so I've seen every game of Picketts that I could for the last 3 years. I always thought he was pretty good and had a chance to be a decent NFL QB, but never imagined he'd break out like he did this year. I really would like to see him do well in the NFL and to do it in Pittsburgh would be great. Imagine Desmond Ridder was drafted by the Bengals. 

I think it's a cool story, but strategically I'd rather see if Mitch could get his shit together over the next two years and definitively roll with him during that time. He does have the pedigree so who knows. With QBs falling like they did, they could have gotten a Ridder, Corral, or even Willis in the second or possibly trading up to the early 3rd, and used at least 1 or 2 other picks to address other areas. 

IDK, I guess I have to trust in what they're doing. They do generally make good sound moves, but then again they do draft Artie Burns and Jarvis Jones every once in a while. 

[BFritz21]

(04-29-2022, 03:50 PM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: This is tough for me. My kid goes to Pitt and is in the Drumline, so I've seen every game of Picketts that I could for the last 3 years. I always thought he was pretty good and had a chance to be a decent NFL QB, but never imagined he'd break out like he did this year. I really would like to see him do well in the NFL and to do it in Pittsburgh would be great. Imagine Desmond Ridder was drafted by the Bengals. 

I think it's a cool story, but strategically I'd rather see if Mitch could get his shit together over the next two years and definitively roll with him during that time. He does have the pedigree so who knows. With QBs falling like they did, they could have gotten a Ridder, Corral, or even Willis in the second or possibly trading up to the early 3rd, and used at least 1 or 2 other picks to address other areas. 

IDK, I guess I have to trust in what they're doing. They do generally make good sound moves, but then again they do draft Artie Burns and Jarvis Jones every once in a while. 

Do you think they drafted him just to try and attract more of the local fanbase and keep them engaged?

He just doesn't come off as a strong NFL quarterback. The Steelers will have him under center more, which could be a problem since he's used to playing from the gun and is only 6'3 (I know Burrow's only 6'4 and 6'3 is average, but I've seen people say it's a concern). 

Like you said, I think they were better off taking other positions of need, like offensive line, receiver, or defense. I don't think there was enough value in taking Pickett where they did.

[StrictlyBiz]

(04-29-2022, 04:34 PM)BFritz21 Wrote: Do you think they drafted him just to try and attract more of the local fanbase and keep them engaged?

He just doesn't come off as a strong NFL quarterback. The Steelers will have him under center more, which could be a problem since he's used to playing from the gun and is only 6'3 (I know Burrow's only 6'4 and 6'3 is average, but I've seen people say it's a concern). 

Like you said, I think they were better off taking other positions of need, like offensive line, receiver, or defense. I don't think there was enough value in taking Pickett where they did.

No. There's no need for the Steelers to do things to attract more fans. There's no need for any NFL team to do that. Winning attracts more fans. I think all GMs (should) get that. 

I think the familiarity played a huge role. They know him very well both as a player and person. I know people who know him and by all accounts, he's a really good upstanding guy. He won't be drunk in a bar bathroom in Milligeville Georgia (bad news for you guys, the rape jokes are over...but they could be replaced by bad qb jokes). 

Beyond that, his work ethic is supposed to be incredible. I think the Steelers saw that daily and know more than other teams did. Is there any other situation in the NFL like the Panthers and Steelers have? Im unaware if there is. He's essentially been a Steeler for 5 years already. I think they feel that with the structure that they have and the familiarity, and his work ethic, that they groom him to reach his max potential. I think that they're counting on a smooth transition and good surroundings paying off. I guess we'll find out how right they are.

With the other QBs dropping the way that they have, it does feel like they could've absolutely picked him up in round 2, even if they may have needed to trade up to do so....which sucks because they may have missed out the chance to have a great draft. 

In the end, I think it's a safe pick. I think that he's going to be a pretty good QB in the NFL someday. Little chance for a bust. But its unlikely he'll ever reach the level of Burrow or Watson (IMO Jackson isn't that great). While Malik Willis has way more potential upside, he's got the potential to be a bust...if a 3rd rounder can be considered a bust. I don't think they wanted a project. They tried a 3rd round project with Rudolph already. They wanted a sure thing even if that 'sure' pans out to be a mid tier qb.  

Surround a mid tier QB with really good talent and good organizational structure and you can have a really successful football team. Maybe even win a championship. There's plenty of evidence. Look no further than Baltimore who won SBs with Trent Dilfer and Joe Flucco. 

Top 10 franchise QBs are just so rare. You guys a lucky to have one. 

[StrictlyBiz]

Since you asked and I didn't answer, I thought more about it. 
Here's my post from another board regarding Trubisky being equal to Pickett
Its a literary masterpiece

Quote:Pickett was the safe pick. What does that get you?

Well, at worst he's equal to Mitch Trubisky and Mitch Trubisky is a capable middle tier QB. Surround a mid tier QB with quality parts in a sound and solid organization, and you can win. Maybe even a Super Bowl. The Ravens did it. Twice.
Worst case scenario, Trubisky leaves in two years, KP starts for the next two years while the Steelers plan their next move, wether that is signing or drafting the next QB. They've got time and less pressure.
Draft Willis instead of Pickett and now worst case scenario Willis doesn't develop and is a total bust. You've now moved the timeline up two years and increased the pressure on finding the next QB.
That's what safe gets you. That's what Pickett provides.

 

[grampahol]

See Pittsburgh? You should have sucked big time two years earlier instead of pretending Ben was going to ride off into the sunset with a gimme superbowl win.. At least Bengals fans didn't have to worry about it. We knew Andy wasn't the answer and we WERE gonna suck no questions asked. The timing couldn't have been better..  

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-29-2022, 08:28 AM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Good observation. If the best this draft class can be is Trubisky-like, it doesn't make sense to take a qb. If Trubisky can mature, grow, and reach his draft position potential, then they wouldn't need anyone. That's a big 'if.'

But it appears that they did just that. The things that I will say with Pickett though, is that being the safe pick that he is, if he is = to Mitch, at least they have him for two additional years and cheaply. I doubt he will be worse than Mitch. 

Also, you have to believe that their familiarity with him makes them trust that he can be more than what everyone is projecting. Given their shared training facilities, the Panthers and Steelers interact everyday. They are pretty much one big team. He's practically been a Steeler for 5 years now. Of course that could cause them to over focus on him, but you have to trust that they can take the emotion out of it. Thats kinda a requirement of the job. 

I guess we shall see. I've got hopes that he can grow into a really good QB soon. But maybe I an idiot? Who knows?  

Perhaps they're taking to take a step back in time to when rookie/2md/3rd year QB's held clipboards for 2 or 3 years and come in 4th qtr. in blowout games. (like when we're kicking your *** 41-6) And hoping Trubisky can get it together and if not Pickett can step in.

And if worst comes to worst be high enough in the next draft or two to get a better QB ?

[StrictlyBiz]

(04-30-2022, 01:46 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Perhaps they're taking to take a step back in time to when rookie/2md/3rd year QB's held clipboards for 2 or 3 years and come in 4th qtr. in blowout games. (like when we're kicking your *** 41-6) And hoping Trubisky can get it together and if not Pickett can step in.

And if worst comes to worst be high enough in the next draft or two to get a better QB ?

Yeah, long term I think that's kind of the deal. Not sure about KP holding the clipboard for a couple of years though. I think the competition is going to be truly wide open and they're not paying lip service to it. Neither of these guys were on the roster last year, they shouldn't have a preference for one over the other. 

But, yeah if Trubisky stinks and Pickett steps in and doesn't pan out, they'll move on in 3-4 years. But with KP, assuming that his floor is equal to whatever Mitch is, you'll alleviate a lot of pressure in finding the next one and have a few extra years for figure it out. 

See my post right above. 

[StrictlyBiz]

(04-30-2022, 01:18 PM)grampahol Wrote: See Pittsburgh? You should have sucked big time two years earlier instead of pretending Ben was going to ride off into the sunset with a gimme superbowl win.. At least Bengals fans didn't have to worry about it. We knew Andy wasn't the answer and we WERE gonna suck no questions asked. The timing couldn't have been better..  

It's a little bit more detailed than wishing that Ben was going to ride off into the sunset. 
They gave him one last big contract because they truly felt like he could still play at a very high level and lead them to a championship.
And they weren't wrong when he signed the contract. He probably could have. The year before he had statistically his best season, leading the league in passing. But immediately after he signed it is when he snapped the elbow. That was the absolute worst possible time from a cap management standpoint. 

Because of the way dead money is calculated and handled when you are trading/releasing/retiring a player, if they had done that the next season, the cap implications would have been catastrophic. They were stuck with him This is what I've been most critical of the Browns about with Watsons fully guaranteed contract. If he suffers a severe injury very early on, they're screwed. Like, they won't be able to field a team, screwed. And typically that dead money burden lessen quickly, but in Watsons case, it will significantly linger through the duration of the contract. 

Back to Ben. I think they felt like and were hoping that he could make a full recovery in 2020 after the surgery. But when it was obvious that he was shot, because of the cap implications, they really had no choice but to renegotiate and extend his contract, and bring him back in 2021. They probably didn't want to, but they were trapped. 

[JaggedJimmyJay]

I was thinking about the drafts and free agency within the division today, and it occurred to me that the AFC North is becoming a sort of war of philosophies on offense. I don't know if it's deliberate, but we seem to have two primary schools of thought emerging, each reflected by two teams:

Everything we do is about running the ball.

Both Cleveland and Baltimore have experienced almost irrefutable downgrades this offseason in terms of pass-receiving talent. The Browns replaced Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry with solely Amari Cooper, and the Ravens traded away Marquise Brown. Neither team addressed their holes at receiver meaningfully in the draft. The Ravens did add tight end depth, but that doesn't figure to move the needle much when Mark Andrews is already their biggest remaining target barring a Rashod Bateman breakout.

Moreover, both teams drafted running backs this year despite already boasting deep running back groups. The Browns added Jerome Ford (5th round) to what might have already been the deepest group in the league with Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and D'Ernest Johnson. They also obviously brought in Deshaun Watson, a quarterback that adds a strong running dimension. The Ravens added Tyler Badie (6th round) despite already having a high-ceiling duo in J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards (and Lamar Jackson can put up 1,000 yards himself).

Mobile quarterbacks, deep offensive lines, endless stables of running backs, and weak receiving groups -- Baltimore and Cleveland are both taking that approach to its limit.

We're here to throw the ball over your heads.

We already know what the Bengals are and what they can be. They're an admirably balanced outfit with Mixon, but still -- their most lethal offensive potential comes by way of Joe Burrow and one of the league's best group of starting wide receivers. I figure that "let Joe cook" philosophy will be even more pronounced in 2022 with the knee injury further in the past and an MVP-caliber season already in his resume, especially while Chase makes his case as the best receiver in the NFL. The Bengals are going to throw the ball, and they're going to expect to dominate opponents by doing so.

The Steelers look to me like they're trying to build something similar. Najee Harris may become a bigger share of their offense than Mixon is of the Bengals', but the common ground is that they're irrefutably feature backs. The Steelers drafted two receivers this year (George Pickens in the 2nd round and Calvin Austin in the 4th round), which should complement what was already at least a decent group with Dionte Johnson and Chase Claypool. Then, of course, they took Kenny Pickett in the first round -- a guy that has already said that he tries to emulate Joe Burrow as a quarterback. There's some skillset and habitual overlap between the two, primarily in that they are mobile within the pocket and throw accurate balls. Pickett's small hands even recall Joe's two years ago (albeit Pickett's are half an inch smaller). I don't think Pickett is going to be Joe Burrow or even close, but that could be described as his best-case scenario.

Cerebral quarterbacks who are mobile as passers with team-building emphasis on the outside at receiver before the inside on the line and high-emphasis feature backs -- Cincinnati and Pittsburgh both fit this description.

In this way, right now I kind of see Cleveland as a poor-man's Baltimore and Pittsburgh as a poor-man's Cincinnati.

[StrictlyBiz]

(05-04-2022, 08:48 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: In this way, right now I kind of see Cleveland as a poor-man's Baltimore and Pittsburgh as a poor-man's Cincinnati.

Well there's a real kick in the balls....  A departure from the norm. 


But good overall assessment. 
Regarding the Burrow/Pickett comparos, I was just coming to share this. Early on in the pre-draft time, KP was widely referred to as "Joe Burrow Lite." That kind of went away, and moved toward KP = Sam Darnold. I think that was mostly because of the overall narrative was that this draft class sucks and the hand size issue. But I've always stuck with the JB Lite comparison. Maybe that's just me being optimistic, but I really do think they are similar. Hopefully, KP can have similar success and be that Joe Burrow Lite. I think it would make for some great football for the next decade and a half. Even better for everyone if the Watson move doesn't explode in Cleveland's face and Jackson is the real deal (IMO he's an average QB)

This gives me hope and sums it up nicely....


https://steelersdepot.com/2022/05/film-room-do-the-burrow-pickett-comparisons-have-any-merit/?fbclid=IwAR0LmgYuZXYbIbd0AGiYMSLd9NKF5G-SqP2ri6KINUilk3s2Ypv89nvzDYg

[JaggedJimmyJay]

(05-06-2022, 09:04 AM)StrictlyBiz Wrote: Well there's a real kick in the balls....  A departure from the norm. 


But good overall assessment. 
Regarding the Burrow/Pickett comparos, I was just coming to share this. Early on in the pre-draft time, KP was widely referred to as "Joe Burrow Lite." That kind of went away, and moved toward KP = Sam Darnold. I think that was mostly because of the overall narrative was that this draft class sucks and the hand size issue. But I've always stuck with the JB Lite comparison. Maybe that's just me being optimistic, but I really do think they are similar. Hopefully, KP can have similar success and be that Joe Burrow Lite. I think it would make for some great football for the next decade and a half. Even better for everyone if the Watson move doesn't explode in Cleveland's face and Jackson is the real deal (IMO he's an average QB)

This gives me hope and sums it up nicely....


https://steelersdepot.com/2022/05/film-room-do-the-burrow-pickett-comparisons-have-any-merit/?fbclid=IwAR0LmgYuZXYbIbd0AGiYMSLd9NKF5G-SqP2ri6KINUilk3s2Ypv89nvzDYg

I certainly expect dog fights in the division.

I think Pickett's biggest hurdle to clear will be his processing speed. He was very slow to throw the ball in college, and that will have to improve if he is to survive behind Pittsburgh's current offensive line. Burrow has a little hold-on-too-long in him too, but he also has shown he can get rid of it quickly when he must. Pickett absolutely must find a way to improve in that regard, and perhaps he will (who knows), or otherwise the Steelers need to play Trubisky until they bolster pass protection.

[StrictlyBiz]

(05-06-2022, 05:13 PM)JaggedJimmyJay Wrote: I certainly expect dog fights in the division.

I think Pickett's biggest hurdle to clear will be his processing speed. He was very slow to throw the ball in college, and that will have to improve if he is to survive behind Pittsburgh's current offensive line. Burrow has a little hold-on-too-long in him too, but he also has shown he can get rid of it quickly when he must. Pickett absolutely must find a way to improve in that regard, and perhaps he will (who knows), or otherwise the Steelers need to play Trubisky until they bolster pass protection.

They got some FAs that they think will improve the line. It will definitely be better than last year, but that's not saying much. Who knows?
I've been saying that their biggest loss in the last few years is Mike Munchak leaving for Denver. O Line fell off a cliff when he left.