Hit Rate by position

[EatonFan]

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/4/8/18300554/nfl-draft-hit-rates-by-position-and-how-they-affect-strategy

The lowest hit rate is among CBs. In order to get a quality CB in the NFL you pretty much have to take them early (1st round preferably).

Does this change a team's draft strategy knowing one position is that dependent on draft round vs another?

I know this is an older article but I doubt the percents have moved much.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(04-21-2022, 06:34 AM)EatonFan Wrote: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2019/4/8/18300554/nfl-draft-hit-rates-by-position-and-how-they-affect-strategy

The lowest hit rate is among CBs.  In order to get a quality CB in the NFL you pretty much have to take them early (1st round preferably).

Does this change a team's draft strategy knowing one position is that dependent on draft round vs another?  

I know this is an older article but I doubt the percents have moved much.

Technically, just about any position drafted in the first typically has the highest success rate of being starter/pro-bowl/all-pro player. It's just a matter of talent levels.

C/G might have higher rates in round 2, but that's just based on pure volume as many of them are 1st round talents, but the position isn't as high of a demand as others.

[CloeHokie]

Well let's look at our own blunders picking CBS as of late. People point at our bad oline draft picks. Hate to break it to you but our first round corners suck too. William Jackson maybe but we didn't keep him so no. Same with JJ. We do better taking former first round picks as free agents and getting them back on track. I don't want Dre Kirkpatrick back on the roster. And a few of these guys remind me of him

[CloeHokie]

At the end of the day though I think they are all somewhat crapshoot picks. Hard to really say one is more. I would say QB is the worst as if you are wrong it will set you back further than any other pick

[CloeHokie]

I tried looking this up a few months ago and didn't post it as this was one of the only few things I could find when I googled it. There aren't very many reliable sources that I could find and I'd say some Chiefs fans website isn't up there on that list. Lol

[hollodero]

(04-21-2022, 11:07 AM)CloeHokie Wrote: Well let's look at our own blunders picking CBS as of late. People point at our bad oline draft picks. Hate to break it to you but our first round corners suck too. William Jackson maybe but we didn't keep him so no. Same with JJ. We do better taking former first round picks as free agents and getting them back on track. I don't want Dre Kirkpatrick back on the roster. And a few of these guys remind me of him

In all fairness to Kirkpatrick and Dennard and WJIII. They probably did not live up to their draft position, but they did not suck nearly as much as Ogbuehi, Fisher or Price.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-21-2022, 11:07 AM)CloeHokie Wrote: Well let's look at our own blunders picking CBS as of late. People point at our bad oline draft picks. Hate to break it to you but our first round corners suck too. William Jackson maybe but we didn't keep him so no. Same with JJ. We do better taking former first round picks as free agents and getting them back on track. I don't want Dre Kirkpatrick back on the roster. And a few of these guys remind me of him

Bengals had a string of 1st rounders that never really panned out for them in the Lewis era.

Price never made it through his rookie contract.
John Ross moved on after his, only had one decent season. Was hurt a lot.
Eifert had a couple good seasons but was hurt a lot.
Ogbuehi bad.
Dennard never really did much.
WJ3 was solid but didn't re-sign after his rookie deal was up.
Zeitler was good but also didn't re-sign after his rookie deal was up.
Kirkpatrick was ok at times, but frustrating others. He was with the team 8 seasons though (miraculously).
Bengals haven't extended a 1st round draft pick since Kirkpatrick actually, who was drafted 10 years ago.

We'll see if Jonah Williams stays beyond his rookie contract, but I have liked the 1st rounders selected in the Taylor era so far.
Part of that though is because they were picking in the top half of the draft.
It becomes more of a gamble getting a great player the later you pick.

[Whatever]

(04-21-2022, 11:09 AM)CloeHokie Wrote: At the end of the day though I think they are all somewhat crapshoot picks. Hard to really say one is more. I would say QB is the worst as if you are wrong it will set you back further than any other pick

With the Bengals, draft trends are tough simply because the coaches are so involved in talent evaluation.  When coaches change, the new guy may be better or worse than the guy before him.  It's really only fair to account for trends involving the current coaches.

Take Pollack, for example.  He had 3 OL picks last year, plus Price and Rod Taylor from the '18 draft.  It's pretty fair to look at trends for a guy who's had a 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th round pick over 2 drafts.  Based on Pollack's draft history, the chances of us drafting even a decent rookie starter are pretty poor.

[EatonFan]

Yes. Draft position demand, the strength of players in any given draft for any given year, our scouting quality and who ultimately decides (GM, Coach, committee, owner). All of these factor in.

[EatonFan]

If it comes down to drafting a G or a CB and all else being equal I'd think CB would take priority.

[CloeHokie]

(04-21-2022, 06:04 PM)EatonFan Wrote: If it comes down to drafting a G or a CB and all else being equal I'd think CB would take priority.

Did you watch the playoffs? Burrow almost died. On several occasions. He broke several records for being bashed. 

LG is still a hole. You can hope and pray someone gets better. But I honestly can't think of anyone that has gone from trash to great. Maybe from trash to average. I don't want average protecting Burrow. Average can be the CB 4.

[Yogo]

(04-21-2022, 07:35 PM)CloeHokie Wrote: Did you watch the playoffs? Burrow almost died. On several occasions. He broke several records for being bashed. 

LG is still a hole. You can hope and pray someone gets better. But I honestly can't think of anyone that has gone from trash to great. Maybe from trash to average. I don't want average protecting Burrow. Average can be the CB 4.

True.  My stomach is in knots at every drop back, but seriously, I'd only take Tyler, Zion, or Green if they will guarantee start over Trey Hill (and shift Karras) or Carman.  Even though they are 1st round prospects is the performance THAT noticable over Carman?  How is it that our 2nd round G (not even league average) ?  So, draft a guaranteed starter or else it's a wasted pick.  Why not just get Spain back?