Joe Goodberry - PFF trends of rookie Guards through Year 3

[*ochocincos*]

(04-24-2022, 12:48 AM)tms Wrote: I think there are other issues with Carman that go beyond his PFF scores. I mean, they don't even feel comfortable anointing him the starting LG, despite the fact that there's a gaping hole on the line, free agency is over, and they're not looking to use any picks on a lineman. That strikes me as a bit bizarre. It's either a sign that they think he needs motivation, or that they're not sure he's the right guy themselves. Neither one is particularly promising.

I don't know what their plans are for him. Hell, I don't even know what their plans are for Spain, given that he's been working out with a few of the guys (including Burrow) and he hasn't even nibbled at free agency. But the numbers around PFF grades and trends do not apply to Carman right now. Just feels like there's other stuff going on. If he's out there between Jonah and Karras to start the year I'll be surprised.

Can't confirm that until the draft actually happens.
Teams don't like to show their hands, especially when picking so late in the draft.
Don't want another incident where the guy they really want is taken right before them and they're stuck scrambling (Ragnow-Price 2018).

[pulses]

(04-24-2022, 01:08 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Can't confirm that until the draft actually happens.
Teams don't like to show their hands, especially when picking so late in the draft.
Don't want another incident where the guy they really want is taken right before them and they're stuck scrambling (Ragnow-Price 2018).

Yeah and it doesn't help when Lapham gets on social media and tells everybody who they're gonna take the day before the draft either.

[jabor]

(04-23-2022, 07:24 PM)ochocincos Wrote: As usual, Joe Goodberry did some heavy lifting of PFF grades to see if there were any worthwhile trends.

Back in March, he looked to see what the average PFF grade was for rookie Guards with 500+ snaps since 2015 (47 players).
Then he tracked 2nd year, and then 3rd year.
He also added the difference between years 1-2, 2-3, and 1-3.

Kudos to Ochocinos for the OP info!

As he implies by his "caveats" later in his post, you have to put statistics into context for them to tell a story accurately.

I'm naturally skeptical of stats that just consider the most popular form of Avg (the "mean"), so I was curious what the "median" PFF change was. I've attached a table I threw together for you to look at.

I was surprised that only 58% showed cumulative improvement from years 1 to 3. IOW, 42% of draftees got worse!!

I would be interested to numbers for years past year 3. Anecdotally, it seems to me that linemen continue to improve with experience and that experience, not physical gifts, leads to a lot of growth.

Caveats:
- I don't account for round drafted. You may think that's an important factor affecting whether a lineman can improve.
- I'm uncertain whether numbers reflect a specific position or is averaged over multiple positions.
- The (potential) effect of a position change is not accounted for.
- Injury-related factors that could have affected a player's performance are not accounted for.
- No consideration is given to run-vs-pass-vs-combined PFF values. I think most of us would give emphasis on pass values because of our concern for Burrow's health.
- I only included players who have played for 3 years.

_______________________________________________
Quick Stats Comments (just because I think it's very possible many of us forgot this from school)
-- The AVG typically used in conversation is the "mean," which is adding all values together and dividing that total by the number of variables.
-- Alternative Avg to consider... the "median," which is the middle value of all the numbers you are looking at.
-- Quick example. Take 3 numbers: 1,5,30. The Mean (what we normally use) is 12; the Median is 5. Big difference.
-- The danger of a mean is that large numbers can skew it. The median is not adversely affected by values far outside distribution, and which may be outliers.

[Bengalstripes9]

What I gather from this discussion is that we shouldn’t bank on Carmen improving all that much. I’m not saying he won’t improve—I’m just saying we should plan for the worst case scenario. If we wait on him like we did so many other lineman, we could be in a tough spot. I say if the value is at guard or center in the 1st you pick that best player available as we need depth and competition all across the roster. LG is our weak link right now, so it makes sense to pick a LG or center if they are the BPA. We can’t plan on Carmen becoming an all pro until he shows it first. We made some big mistakes in the past banking on young players becoming all pros and they never got close. I say it’s about time we Learn from our mistakes.

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2022, 03:18 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: What I gather from this discussion is that we shouldn’t bank on Carmen improving all that much. I’m not saying he won’t improve—I’m just saying we should plan for the worst case scenario. If we wait on him like we did so many other lineman, we could be in a tough spot. I say if the value is at guard or center in the 1st you pick that best player available as we need depth and competition all across the roster. LG is our weak link right now, so it makes sense to pick a LG or center if they are the BPA. We can’t plan on Carmen becoming an all pro until he shows it first. We made some big mistakes in the past banking on young players becoming all pros and they never got close. I say it’s about time we Learn from our mistakes.

If you look around the NFL you will see that most teams do not draft over a player they took in the second round the year before.  That is because most NFL players improve from their rookie season.  I could provide a list of dozens of very good NFL players who were not good as rookies.  If you keep drafting over second round picks the next year then you are going to be wasting a lot of picks replacing guys that actually develop into solid starters.


The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a 10+ sack season, but zero did it as a rookie.  

31 second round picks had a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 did it as a rookie.  

21 second round picks had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 did it as a rookie.  

496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but far less than half of them (200) did it as a rookie.

You just don't draft over a second round pick the next season unless he has some physical/injury problem.

[fredtoast]

(04-24-2022, 03:08 PM)jabor Wrote: I was surprised that only 58% showed cumulative improvement from years 1 to 3. IOW, 42% of draftees got worse!!

You all know I have a problem with PFF.  I did not really want to get into that in this thread, but in what world do half of NFL players get worse after their rookie season instead of better?

[Mike M (the other one)]

fredtoa Wrote:You all know I have a problem with PFF.  I did not really want to get into that in this thread, but in what world do half of NFL players get worse after their rookie season instead of better?

On avg, the 1st and 2nd rounds have the fewest OL drafted.
7th round typically has the highest avg no of OL drafted.
The order of highest to lowest is, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 2.
Sooo do you really expect those drafted in rounds 3+ to have the same level of improvement as those taken in 1/2 (where these guys have a much higher talent level to start with)?

It's volume based.

If we want to guesstimate about Carman, we should only pay attention to those drafted in round 2 (guys that have a similar level of talent).

[jabor]

(04-24-2022, 03:08 PM)jabor Wrote: I was surprised that only 58% showed cumulative improvement from years 1 to 3. IOW, 42% of draftees got worse!!

(04-24-2022, 04:45 PM)fredtoast Wrote: You all know I have a problem with PFF.  I did not really want to get into that in this thread, but in what world do half of NFL players get worse after their rookie season instead of better?

YUP. It defies common sense. And yet... morons LIKE ME always seem to look at it whenever a new player is discussed here . It's just so easy to find, and, sadly, lots of sports media pundits refer to it and treat it as useful.

I would love a metric that reflects the qualities fellow players (current & retired) and successful line coaches use to assess linemen.

[*ochocincos*]

(04-24-2022, 03:18 PM)Bengalstripes9 Wrote: What I gather from this discussion is that we shouldn’t bank on Carmen improving all that much. I’m not saying he won’t improve—I’m just saying we should plan for the worst case scenario. If we wait on him like we did so many other lineman, we could be in a tough spot. I say if the value is at guard or center in the 1st you pick that best player available as we need depth and competition all across the roster. LG is our weak link right now, so it makes sense to pick a LG or center if they are the BPA. We can’t plan on Carmen becoming an all pro until he shows it first. We made some big mistakes in the past banking on young players becoming all pros and they never got close. I say it’s about time we Learn from our mistakes.

Only two OGs in all of the NFL every year are selected All-Pro.
Just because a player is not an All-Pro doesn't need they need replaced.
Heck, even if someone isn't even a Pro Bowler doesn't mean they need replaced.
A player is "above average" with a grade of 70+, by PFF standards.
A player is "average" with a grade of 60+, by PFF standards.

Quote:The ratings correlate this way: 90.0 and higher, elite; 80.0-89.9, high quality; 70.0-79.9, above average; 60.0-69.9, average; 50.0-59.9, below average; 49.9 and below, poor.

https://www.si.com/nfl/cardinals/news/pff-player-grades-deserve-scrutiny

The reason I started this thread is I've seen a lot of doom and gloom about Carman, especially since the Bengals didn't add a veteran LG.
I wanted to convey someone's research that they took the time to collect to give optimism that Carman might still end up turning into a solid player.
Given Carman's rating was 56.3 as a rookie (even higher at LG vs RG), I think it's reasonable that he could end up with a 60+ rating either this year or next year.

[Bengalstripes9]

(04-24-2022, 04:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: If you look around the NFL you will see that most teams do not draft over a player they took in the second round the year before.  That is because most NFL players improve from their rookie season.  I could provide a list of dozens of very good NFL players who were not good as rookies.  If you keep drafting over second round picks the next year then you are going to be wasting a lot of picks replacing guys that actually develop into solid starters.


The last twenty drafts have produced 17 second round picks that registered a 10+ sack season, but zero did it as a rookie.  

-31 second round picks had a 1000 receiving yard season, but only 3 did it as a rookie.  

-21 second round picks had a 1000 yard rushing season but only 6 did it as a rookie.  

-496 second round picks have had a season where they started at least 9 games, but far less than half of them (200) did it as a rookie.

You just don't draft over a second round pick the next season unless he has some physical/injury problem.

Carmen does have injury concerns though, doesn't he?

I understand that players get better. I do. But a lot of the time you can tell if a player will be above average in the league based purely on what he did as a rookie. 

Carmen certainly could get better. He could become a starting caliber player in this league. But based on what he's shown so far, what would your honest assessment be? Is he a starter in this league based on what we've seen so far? If not, why should we pencil him in at this point. It's a bit pre-mature. 

All I'm saying is that we should be done with penciling in rookies. They've got to earn a spot. Better competition can only improve our line/depth. May the best man win. 

Having more than 5 starting caliber players on our line would be a blessing. It would give us options in the future (potential for trades, etc.). If the best player at 31 is a lineman, I say pull the trigger.

(04-24-2022, 08:22 PM)ochocincos Wrote: Only two OGs in all of the NFL every year are selected All-Pro.
Just because a player is not an All-Pro doesn't need they need replaced.
Heck, even if someone isn't even a Pro Bowler doesn't mean they need replaced.
A player is "above average" with a grade of 70+, by PFF standards.
A player is "average" with a grade of 60+, by PFF standards.
https://www.si.com/nfl/cardinals/news/pff-player-grades-deserve-scrutiny

The reason I started this thread is I've seen a lot of doom and gloom about Carman, especially since the Bengals didn't add a veteran LG.
I wanted to convey someone's research that they took the time to collect to give optimism that Carman might still end up turning into a solid player.
Given Carman's rating was 56.3 as a rookie (even higher at LG vs RG), I think it's reasonable that he could end up with a 60+ rating either this year or next year.

All I'm saying is he's been garbage so far. A few good blocks here and there but mostly he's been run around or through. Why should we expect him to get better? Did he get better as the year went on this past year or stay the same?

I'm not saying he won't get better. What I'm saying is that we shouldn't expect it. If it happens, that's a bonus. But don't plan on it happening when there's no evidence to back it. He's got to prove himself before you can pencil him in as a starting caliber player. There's a high probability that Carmen won't be an all pro. But let's be serious here, he hasn't even proven that he's an NFL starting caliber lineman. 

We hung on to hopes of Ogbuehi getting better for 3 years and even let Whit go with the expectation that ogbuehi would replace him. Didn't work out. Same deal for a lot of recent olineman draft picks. We can't keep making the same mistakes.

The bottom line is we need depth at oline and a starter at LG--if the bpa is a G/C, you have to make the pick. If the bpa is corner we need depth there too, so make the pick. We should be picking bpa in this draft, whether it be oline, dline, corner, safety, linebacker, tight end. A wr or qb in round 1 would be a bit much, but otherwise everything should be on the table.

[Whatever]

(04-23-2022, 10:24 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I need some context.  What percentage of all guards grade over 75?

Conner Williams went from a 59 to a 71, but I don't know where either of those grades rank among all OGs.

All I know is that I have seen a lot of young offensive linemen improve a lot from their rookie season.  Whitworth and Clint Boling both struggled as rookies.  Rich Braham was cut by the Cardinals before we signed him.  And those examples are just from one team.  I bet there are dozens of other examples across the league.

According to PFF's final OL ratings for the '21 season, 11 of 64 starting G's graded 75 or higher.