value of "long tds" in the run game.

[fredtoast]

We all love to see RBs break off long td runs.  Happens all the time in college.  Not so much in the NFL.

One criticism I often hear about Mixon is that he does not have the "top gear" to break long td runs.  When I looked at the stats two things stood out.

First of all Mixon is pretty good at breaking long plays.  Mixon has missed 12 games over the last 4 years but only 6 RBs have more plays of 40+ yards than Mixon's seven.

Saquan Barkley....16
Nick Chubb..........14
Derrick Henry.......13
Aaron Jones.........10
Jonathan Taylor......9
Alvin Kamara.........8

Second, Mixon does have trouble "finishing" his long runs.  Of the 14 RBs that had at least 5 plays of 40+ yards over the last 4 years  only 2 (Mixon, Leonard Fournette) scored tds on less than half of their long plays.  Mixon only scored 3 tds on his seven plays.  Fournette only scored 2 on six plays.  On the other end some guys are going all the way when they break a long one.  Henry sored tds on 10 of 13.  Kamar scored on 7 of 8.  Dalvin Cook scored on all six of his.  Raheem Mostert scored on all 5 of his.

Overall 15 RBs scored more tds of 40+ yards than Mixon over the last 4 years, but most of them don't have as many long plays as Mixon.  So while we lament Mixon's inability to finish his long runs we should also celebrate the fact that ne breaks so many. 

And finally you have to consider that they are pretty rare.  Mixon is 7th in the league among RBs over the last 4 years and he averaged less than 2 per year (1.8).  His 7 long plays account for about two-thirds of one-percent of his 1067 touches.  It is kind of silly to judge a player on such a small percentage of plays.

[WeezyBengal]

I feel like 40 yard runs per attempt would be a better metric to look at. 7 runs of 40 yards or more does not seem like a lot, especially with the amount of volume that Mixon gets.

Hell, Barkley has missed two full seasons in those four years and he has double the amount of 40 plus runs than Mixon. Not great.

[fredtoast]

(04-29-2022, 09:33 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: I feel like 40 yard runs per attempt would be a better metric to look at. 7 runs of 40 yards or more does not seem like a lot, especially with the amount of volume that Mixon gets.

I agree 100%, but I would have to do it player by player.  No time for that right now.

(04-29-2022, 09:33 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: Hell, Barkley has missed two full seasons in those four years and he has double the amount of 40 plus runs than Mixon. Not great.

Barkley's greatness does not diminish Mixon.  Saquan is ahead of every single RB in the league.

[fredtoast]

Here is the biggest surprise I found.

Miles Sanders has only 584 touches over the last 4 years. Just a little more than half of Mixon's 1067. But Sanders has 5 plays of 40+ yards and has scored a td on every one of them.

I am ashamed to say that I can't remember ever hearing of Miles Sanders. Eagles 2nd round pick out of Penn state in 2019.

[Mer]

Mixon falls down too often trying to make a cut in open field. We see it happen at least a half a dozen times each year. If he had better balance or shoes, which ever it is, he'd have a lot more big runs.

[KillerGoose]

(04-29-2022, 09:39 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I agree 100%, but I would have to do it player by player.  No time for that right now.

I can help. I can use a programming language to grab this data quickly. I filtered for rushing data since 2017 (Mixon's rookie year) and looked for RBs with at least 100 carries over that time frame. Here is the top five "rush attempts per long run"...

1. Damien Williams (55 attempts per long run)
2. Saquon Barkley (60 attempts per long run)
3. J.K. Dobbins (67 attempts per long run)
4. Raheem Mostert (70 attempts per long run)
5. Cam Akers (75 attempts per long run)

Out of 72 qualifying players over this timespan, Mixon ranks 57th with a 40+ yard run every 276 attempts, or roughly once per season. 

[*jason*]

(04-29-2022, 11:14 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I can help. I can use a programming language to grab this data quickly. I filtered for rushing data since 2017 (Mixon's rookie year) and looked for RBs with at least 100 carries over that time frame. Here is the top five "rush attempts per long run"...

1. Damien Williams (55 attempts per long run)
2. Saquon Barkley (60 attempts per long run)
3. J.K. Dobbins (67 attempts per long run)
4. Raheem Mostert (70 attempts per long run)
5. Cam Akers (75 attempts per long run)

Out of 72 qualifying players over this timespan, Mixon ranks 57th with a 40+ yard run every 276 attempts, or roughly once per season. 

Joe M(eh)ixon... I love his attitude and heart, but Joe Mixon is totally replaceable. I know, I know... He's fid'na explode behind this new line this year.

[fredtoast]

(04-29-2022, 11:14 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Out of 72 qualifying players over this timespan, Mixon ranks 57th with a 40+ yard run every 276 attempts, or roughly once per season. 

Why do you exclude Mixon's long runs on pass plays?  Those are just as important as running plays.

I didn't include Mixon's rookie season when he was a part time player, but over the last 4 years Mixon has a play of 40+ yards every 152 touches.  I have no idea where that ranks in the league.

Can you calculate that?

[KillerGoose]

(04-30-2022, 12:06 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Why do you exclude Mixon's long runs on pass plays?  Those are just as important as running plays.

I didn't include Mixon's rookie season when he was a part time player, but over the last 4 years Mixon has a play of 40+ yards every 152 touches.  I have no idea where that ranks in the league.

Can you calculate that?

Yep. Since 2017, Mixon ranks 25th out of 81 players, combined receiving and rushing 'big plays'. Including his rookie year, he averages a play of 40+ yards every 159 touches. This puts Mixon in the 69th percentile when it comes to "big play" RBs. 

[reuben.ahmed]

I don't care about long TDs as much as a higher YPC.

[fredtoast]

(04-30-2022, 09:34 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Yep. Since 2017, Mixon ranks 25th out of 81 players, combined receiving and rushing 'big plays'. Including his rookie year, he averages a play of 40+ yards every 159 touches. This puts Mixon in the 69th percentile when it comes to "big play" RBs. 

There have been a lot more than 81 players that have played RB in the NFL since 2017.  

How did you come up with this number?

[WeezyBengal]

(04-30-2022, 09:43 AM)reuben.ahmed Wrote: I don't care about long TDs as much as a higher YPC.

I don't care if the run results in a TD or not, but long runs are a direct correlation to YPC. With that being said, then yeah...you do care about long runs. 

[KillerGoose]

(04-30-2022, 11:03 AM)fredtoast Wrote: There have been a lot more than 81 players that have played RB in the NFL since 2017.  

How did you come up with this number?

I am placing limits on the data to filter outliers. Need to have 100 rushes and 50 receptions since 2017. 

[grampahol]

Factor in the quality or lack of the offensive line play. Joe hasn't exactly been running behind a top rated O-line. There have been a ton of plays where he's hit behind the LOS and dropped through no fault of his own. Now that he has some mileage on his legs it probably won't be a fair assessment to compare with the past few years of crap O-linemen.. Still, I hope he breaks every Bengals record as a RB, not that I even remotely think he will..  I'll be happy if he's able to give a respectable showing going forward.

[KillerGoose]

(04-30-2022, 11:25 AM)grampahol Wrote: Factor in the quality or lack of the offensive line play. Joe hasn't exactly been running behind a top rated O-line. There have been a ton of plays where he's hit behind the LOS and dropped through no fault of his own. Now that he has some mileage on his legs it probably won't be a fair assessment to compare with the past few years of crap O-linemen.. Still, I hope he breaks every Bengals record as a RB, not that I even remotely think he will..  I'll be happy if he's able to give a respectable showing going forward.

Since 2017, Mixon ranks in the 82nd percentile for getting dropped behind the LOS. This isn't accounting for any times where he was behind the LOS and managed to not lose yardage. 

[grampahol]

Oh well..I still like Joe and he won't be around forever. I'd be kind of surprised if he finishes out his contract knowing the typical lifespan of RBs.. 

[*bengalfan74*]

(04-29-2022, 11:21 PM)jason Wrote: Joe M(eh)ixon... I love his attitude and heart, but Joe Mixon is totally replaceable. I know, I know... He's fid'na explode behind this new line this year.

Agree

I'm not saying Mixon is a tic above average, I believe he's a couple tics above. But I have a big question mark about if he's really a big leap above average considering his pay ?

And I'm anxious to see what he does behind what should be a much improved Oline.

[Whacked]

(04-30-2022, 12:52 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree

I'm not saying Mixon is a tic above average, I believe he's a couple tics above. But I have a big question mark about if he's really a big leap above average considering his pay ?

And I'm anxious to see what he does behind what should be a much improved Oline.

Same.

[reuben.ahmed]

I really hope we win it next year because I think it will get progressively harder quickly, and next year seems like it will be tougher than last year even just due to the strength of schedule. Browns take their own Evan McPherson in a FG shoot-out with us.

[*jason*]

(04-30-2022, 12:52 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Agree

I'm not saying Mixon is a tic above average, I believe he's a couple tics above. But I have a big question mark about if he's really a big leap above average considering his pay ?

And I'm anxious to see what he does behind what should be a much improved Oline.

I'd start to phase Evans in more and more this year to see what we've got in him.