Vegas AFC North Predictions

[guyofthetiger]

I find it interesting that Vegas is picking the Bengals, Ravens, and Browns with 9.5 wins and the Steelers with 7.5 wins this season. Even the experts don't know which team will potentially win the division. Of course, injuries will play a role. I think the Bengals will win at least 10 games though.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

We being underrated I thought we were criminally being underrated by Vegas last year as well. we were 150 to 1 last year. We should be odds on favorite to win the SB this year. Chiefs lost Hill. Rams lost Woods and OBJ and Von. Bills were overrated last year.

[fredtoast]

I don't blame Vegas or any national media expert for not going crazy over the Bengals. We got hot at the end of last year. We have all seen average teams get on a hot streak and beat a few good teams.

I don't think the Bengals were just a flash in the pan at the end of last year but I can certainly understand why many people want to see more proof of consistency over a full season.

[KillerGoose]

I think Bengals at 9.5 is fair. I see them as a 10 win team this year. It's just so hard to say without seeing the revamped pass protection.

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2022, 09:15 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote:  We should be odds on favorite to win the SB this year. 

As a Bengal fan I believe we have a great shot at winning the Super Bowl.  But we were really not that great of a team last year.  We lost 8 games.  Our offense was barely top 10 and our defense was in the bottom half of the league.  Two of our 3 playoff wins came on the last play of the game.  We were not dominating teams in any way.

We have improved our biggest weakness, but I can understand why other fans want to see more before the call us a favorite to win the Super Bowl. 

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(05-17-2022, 09:22 AM)fredtoast Wrote: As a Bengal fan I believe we have a great shot at winning the Super Bowl.  But we were really not that great of a team last year.  We lost 8 games.  Our offense was barely top 10 and our defense was in the bottom half of the league.  Two of our 3 playoff wins came on the last play of the game.  We were not dominating teams in any way.

We have improved our biggest weakness, but I can understand why other fans want to see more before the call us a favorite to win the Super Bowl. 

What have Bills done to deserve to be the favorites right now?

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 09:24 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: What have Bills done to deserve to be the favorites right now?

They have a better defense and equally as dangerous offense. They have a fantastic team by nearly every metric you can find. 

[Bengalfan4life27c]

(05-17-2022, 09:34 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: They have a better defense and equally as dangerous offense. They have a fantastic team by nearly every metric you can find. 

Their run offense and defense are both below average.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

Vegas doesn't really give extreme high or lows for win O/U.

The lowest is 4.5 and highest is 11.5 this coming years. 11 teams fell outside of that range in 2021. I think it's less about exactly predicting win totals and more about balancing liabilities and probabilities.

Add up all the O/Us and you get a total of 262 wins in the 2022 season, yet if you have 16 games a week for 17 weeks, that's 272 games. Their O/Us would actually have 10 wins not existing, so it's not actually "predictions" so much as the numbers that will cover their liabilities and hopefully make them a profit.

[KillerGoose]

(05-17-2022, 09:35 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Their run offense and defense are both below average.

I'm not sure why you would think this. They had the #1 defense by points allowed in 2021. They also had the #6 rushing offense by efficiency in 2021, largely due to Allen being a strong runner.

Are you sure you're thinking of the Bills? Even looking at advanced metrics, they tell the same story. Below is a chart that I created using EPA per play data during the Super Bowl week. 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(05-17-2022, 09:24 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: What have Bills done to deserve to be the favorites right now?

(05-17-2022, 09:35 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Their run offense and defense are both below average.

They had the 3rd scoring offense and 1st scoring defense in 2021.

They also had the 6th rushing offense in the NFL last year in both yards and YPC. I don't think it's sustainable because a lot of that was their QB rushing, but it's factually wrong to say they have a below average run offense. (For that matter they had the 13th overall/11th YPC rush defense, which is also not below average.)

Weird take, man.

[guyofthetiger]

I agree the team to beat this year is the Bills. They could have beaten the Chiefs last year in the playoffs but never got the ball in overtime.

[higgy100]

(05-17-2022, 09:15 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: We  being underrated  I thought we were criminally being underrated by Vegas last year as well. we were 150 to 1 last year. We should be odds on favorite to win the SB this year. Chiefs lost Hill. Rams lost Woods and OBJ and Von. Bills were overrated last year.

The schedule is ridiculously difficult. Vegas will not go crazy as they're in the business of making money only. Their job is to entice as much money to be bet on them, either way, as they can. Think about this if they set the W mark on them at 11.5 that would not generate nearly as much money bet on them as it would with a number far more reasonable (like 9.5 or 10) that would entice more bettors to bet both over/under.

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2022, 09:24 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: What have Bills done to deserve to be the favorites right now?

They had the #1 scoring offense and the #3 scoring defense. 

They played a tougher schedule than us and won more games than us.

They won a playoff game by 30 points.

[QueenCity]

Tough division and you still have fans/expert that are in love with Lamar Jackson. I personally think the Bengals exposed him and the older he gets the less effective he will be.

Browns with Watson will be tough... they sure have had our #.

[higgy100]

(05-17-2022, 09:24 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: What have Bills done to deserve to be the favorites right now?

Besides what's already been mentioned, they've gone 3 years in a row with double-digit wins which shows they're not a one year wonder.

Not saying the Bengals are but you asked the question.

They also have a top 2-3 QB in all of football and a top defense.

[Soonerpeace]

Vegas thinks the entire NFL is more balanced this year. It’s not just the AFC. It’s the bad teams as well. Definitely not a believer in Cleveland or the Steelers. Don’t think Tampa will be as good or the Rams. Not a believer in SF. Colts May surprise some.

But the Bengals at 9.5 is a fantastic bet.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-17-2022, 09:35 AM)Bengalfan4life27c Wrote: Their run offense and defense are both below average.

Offense is pretty good, but defense is a by product of their high scoring offense.

They faced Rookie QB's in Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, they also went against the mercurial Tua.
In other games:
Trevor Lawrence
Taylor Heinke
Trevor Siemian
Cam Newton
Andy Dalton
Davis Mills
Carson Wentz

None of those QB's can keep up with a high scoring offense.

That's 13 games right there.

The other 4 QB's they faced resulted in a L
Ben
Tannehill
Brady
Mahommes

[THE PISTONS]

(05-17-2022, 09:16 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I don't blame Vegas or any national media expert for not going crazy over the Bengals.  We got hot at the end of last year.  We have all seen average teams get on a hot streak and beat a few good teams.

I don't think the Bengals were just a flash in the pan at the end of last year but I can certainly understand why many people want to see more proof of consistency over a full season.

Yep. We won 10 games last year in the regular season so 9.5 seems a good spot to set it to get betting.

Burrow gets hurt...that's under. Chase gets hurt...it's going to be hard to win over.

So many variables in the NFL.

Totally healthy, we should easily go over. But, we likely will have some injuries as all teams do.

[fredtoast]

(05-17-2022, 12:46 PM)Mike M (the other one) Wrote: Offense is pretty good, but defense is a by product of their high scoring offense.

They faced Rookie QB's in Mac Jones and Zach Wilson, they also went against the mercurial Tua.
In other games:
Trevor Lawrence
Taylor Heinke
Trevor Siemian
Cam Newton
Andy Dalton
Davis Mills
Carson Wentz

None of those QB's can keep up with a high scoring offense.

That's 13 games right there.

The other 4 QB's they faced resulted in a L
Ben
Tannehill
Brady
Mahommes

You forgot Mike White.