Best individual season by a Bengals QB - Analysis

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-28-2022, 10:54 AM)KillerGoose Wrote: Out of this list, 2021 Joe Burrow ranks 11th in individual z-score. A fun way to look at this through the perspective of the NFL today is to do a little math and see how would Burrow would have to play in order to be as good as those players above him. So, I calculated out theoretical stat lines that Burrow would have to match in 2022 in order to be considered their equals.

1981 Ken Anderson - 72% completion percentage, 4469 yards, 7.98 yards per attempt,  39 TDs and 6 INTs (114 rating)

1988 Boomer Esiason - 68% completion percentage, 4569 yards, 9.2 yards per attempt, 40 TDs and 10 INTs (118 rating)

1985 Boomer Esiasion - 69% completion percentage, 4171 yards, 8.38 yards per attempt, 38 TDs, 7 INTs (113.85 rating)

1969 Greg Cook - 53% completion percentage, 3776 yards, 9.1 yards per attempt, 27 TDs, 9 INTs (97.25 rating)

The rating I provided in parentheses isn't calculated out from their z-score because I wanted to provide a full statline and the projected rating vs. the rating provided from the projected statline don't tie out, so I just used a third party calculator. If I ONLY do a calculation for the passer rating z-score, which is what is used in the graph, Burrow would have to post the following ratings to compare...

1981 Ken Anderson - 115.4

1988 Boomer Esiason - 114.42

1985 Boomer Esiasion - 111.78

1969 Greg Cook - 111.63

Make you wonder what Burrow could do with something even kinda close to those 80's Olines.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(05-28-2022, 11:22 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Make you wonder what Burrow could do with something even kinda close to those 80's Olines.

Or even Palmer’s 05 or Dalton’s 15 lines…

We might not have a Willie Anderson or a Whit at this point, but it’s still going to be a night and day difference from what Burrow had the first couple years. Goose might have to redo the chart with a new name at the top right.

[Bengalfan4life27c]

Where does 2020 Burrow Rank with 9.5 games just curious it would put this more in perspective.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-28-2022, 12:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Or even Palmer’s 05 or Dalton’s 15 lines…

We might not have a Willie Anderson or a Whit at this point, but it’s still going to be a [B]night and day difference]/B] from what Burrow had the first couple years. Goose might have to redo the chart with a new name at the top right.

I'm sure hoping so ! I can't wait to see what we can do if this Oline is even average. 

[fredtoast]

(05-28-2022, 12:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: Or even Palmer’s 05 or Dalton’s 15 lines…

Dalton had good pass protection but no run blocking.

Palmer had one of the best O-lines in team history.  Elite pass protection and good run blocking.

[Mike M (the other one)]

(05-28-2022, 11:22 AM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Make you wonder what Burrow could do with something even kinda close to those 80's Olines.

Probably mess up the chart with that one outlier.

[fredtoast]

I think it is important to add a little comment about "volume" in addition to "efficiency".

For example, in 1975 Anderson not only led the league in passer rating, but his 243.8 yards per game was the highest mark in 7 years and tenth highest in NFL history.

A lot of fans believe that the passing game has just been growing consistently over the years, but passing numbers in the 60's were much better than in the early 70's when Anderson entered the league. The low point was probably around 1971 when NFL teams averaged only 155.7 passing yards per game, with a 62.2 rating and 15 tds for the season. But 10 years earlier in 1962 NFL teams averaged 193.8 passing yards per game with a 72.6 rating and 21 tds.

Anderson's stats are hurt by playing in this "dead ball" era of passing in the NFL.

From 1960 through 1969 there were nineteen 3000 passing seasons by NFL QBs and 14 more in the AFL. Joe Namath threw for 4007 yards in 1969 and there were 11 other QBs with over 3300 yards in a season over that era.

But from 1970 through 1977 there were only four 3000 yard passing seasons and none over 3300. Anderson's 243.8 yards per game in '75 was the highest for that era by almost 15 yards.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-29-2022, 12:21 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I think it is important to add a little comment about "volume" in addition to "efficiency".

For example, in 1975 Anderson not only led the league in passer rating, but his 243.8 yards per game was the highest mark in 7 years and tenth highest in NFL history.

A lot of fans believe that the passing game has just been growing consistently over the years, but passing numbers in the 60's were much better than in the early 70's when Anderson entered the league.  The low point was probably around 1971 when NFL teams averaged only 155.7 passing yards per game, with a 62.2 rating and 15 tds for the season.  But 10 years earlier in 1962 NFL teams averaged 193.8 passing yards per game with a 72.6 rating and 21 tds.

Anderson's stats are hurt by playing in this "dead ball" era of passing in the NFL.

From 1960 through 1969 there were nineteen 3000 passing seasons by NFL QBs and 14 more in the AFL. Joe Namath threw for 4007 yards in 1969 and there were 11 other QBs with over 3300 yards in a season over that era.

But from 1970 through 1977 there were only four 3000 yard passing seasons and none over 3300.  Anderson's 243.8 yards per game in '75 was the highest for that era by almost 15 yards.

The 70's and early 80's were the era of the RB. I wonder how much that played into the drop in passing numbers ? I bet you in this era the average NFL fan could name more RB's than QB's.

[Forever Spinning Vinyl]

Bengal QBs may have had better seasons than Joe Burrow, but he's the best QB the Bengals have ever had. Outside of Klingler's 70 yard arm, he has every previous Bengal QBs strengths and NONE of their weaknesses.

And, sorry, but I've never been a fan, Boomer is a fraud. He only has three winning seasons in his career and in those three seasons, the Bengals were #1 in rushing, #2 in rushing and #3 in rushing. If his team wasn't running you over, he was exposed as a slightly below average QB.

[fredtoast]

(05-30-2022, 01:15 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: Bengal QBs may have had better seasons than Joe Burrow, but he's the best QB the Bengals have ever had. Outside of Klingler's 70 yard arm, he has every previous Bengal QBs strengths and NONE of their weaknesses.

I'm sorry, but Anderson is better and it isn't really close.  When Kenny retired he was the only QB in history to lead the league in passing 4 times.  Today Steve Young is the only QB to do it more times (5).  Burrow has never even done it once.

In 1982 Anderson set an NFL record with a 70.6% completion percentage that would stand for TWENTY-SEVEN YEARS.  In '82 when Anderson set the record the league completion percentage was only 56.4  When Brees broke that record in 2009 the league completion percentage was 60.9.  In 2021 when the entire league completed almost 65% of their passes Burrow could still not match Anderson's 70.6%.  A QB today would have to complete over 81 percent of his passes to match what Anderson did in 1982 compared to league average.  And Kenny was not just dinking and dunking in '82.  His 11.4 yards per completion was higher than the league average in 2021 (11.0). 

Ken Anderson was also a much better runner.  When Ken retired in '86 the only other QB with 30K passing yards and 2K rushing yard was Fran Tarkenton.  Among all players in NFL history with at least 300 rushes Anderson is #13 in yards per carry (5.6).  He had 4 seasons where he averaged over 7.0 yards per carry including 2 with over 300 yards.

Burrow is a damn good QB and easily among the best playing today.  But Ken Anderson set multiple NFL passing records with some of them standing for decades, and he was a much better runner than Burrow.  Burrow just is not in his class yet.

[jorev5]

(05-27-2022, 01:20 PM)Stewy Wrote: This is fantastic.

I have been a fairly heavy Dalton supporter (not defender), but this really says he was MOSTLY holding the team back.  Sad.

If you have the gumption, it would be interesting to see this same metric for like the Browns.  I predict that even though we'll still say Dalton held the team back, I think it would also make us feel pretty damn lucky to have had what we had over the decades.

Also it might be interesting to plot this with a 3rd metric - league wide OLINE rating.  Per haps make is a bubble, with size being rating.  If OLine rating go back that far.  i say this because in 81, 88 and 2005 I know we had one of the Top OLines in the league and Dalton benefited from a quality OLine until Zeitler and Whit left in the same year, and Dalton wasn't the same after that.  With that said, Burrow ended up where he did on the chart with one of the worst OLines in the league, so I think it would be interesting to add that in.  Or 3 different colors for OLine rank.  Upper 3rd, middle 3rd, lower 3rd, etc.  Just throwing something out there.  I know it's more work, and i don't know if OLINE were ranked as far back as 1969.

Anyway.  Cool stuff.

A 3 dimensional graph with Z axis would be super cool!

[fredtoast]

(05-30-2022, 01:15 AM)Forever Spinning Vinyl Wrote: And, sorry, but I've never been a fan, Boomer is a fraud. He only has three winning seasons in his career and in those three seasons, the Bengals were #1 in rushing, #2 in rushing and #3 in rushing.

The QBs for the top 5 rushing teams in the league in '21 finished 18th, 14th, 27th, 26th, and 17th in passer rating.  A good running game does not make a QB good.  

[KillerGoose]

(05-30-2022, 10:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: In 1982 Anderson set an NFL record with a 70.6% completion percentage that would stand for TWENTY-SEVEN YEARS.  In '82 when Anderson set the record the league completion percentage was only 56.4  When Brees broke that record in 2009 the league completion percentage was 60.9.  In 2021 when the entire league completed almost 65% of their passes Burrow could still not match Anderson's 70.6%.  A QB today would have to complete over 81 percent of his passes to match what Anderson did in 1982 compared to league average.  

I agree with all of your post, but the completion percentage wouldn't have to be quite that high in order to match what Anderson did. The reason is because the standard deviation has tightened in today's NFL compared to 1982. Here is what a theoretical Burrow statline would look like if he matched what Anderson did in his 9 games during 1982. I am going to use Burrow's attempts from 2021 just to simulate the a modern statline, but the ratios are all correct.

73.8% completion percentage, 4,184 yards, 22 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 105.48 passer rating

Burrow would have to be on par with 2018 and 2019 Drew Brees, essentially. 

[John Stofa]

(05-27-2022, 08:54 PM)Essex Johnson Wrote: Anderson dominated, easy best QB ever in our franchise how is this Man not in HOF

I’ve been making this argument for decades. Kenny not being in the HOF, is ridiculous. He led the NFL in passing four times. He was the best QB in our division. Yes, he was better than Bradshaw and we all know it. Kenny just didn’t have the luxury of being surrounded by HOF teammates, as Bradshaw was.

Sorry for the rant, but this is one of my big Bengal pet peeves. Kenny Anderson should absolutely be in the HOF. And while on the subject, Ken Riley and Lemarr Parrish should be in the HOF too.


/rant

[Ctfan73]

(05-30-2022, 10:00 AM)fredtoast Wrote: I'm sorry, but Anderson is better and it isn't really close.  When Kenny retired he was the only QB in history to lead the league in passing 4 times.  Today Steve Young is the only QB to do it more times (5).  Burrow has never even done it once.

In 1982 Anderson set an NFL record with a 70.6% completion percentage that would stand for TWENTY-SEVEN YEARS.  In '82 when Anderson set the record the league completion percentage was only 56.4  When Brees broke that record in 2009 the league completion percentage was 60.9.  In 2021 when the entire league completed almost 65% of their passes Burrow could still not match Anderson's 70.6%.  A QB today would have to complete over 81 percent of his passes to match what Anderson did in 1982 compared to league average.  And Kenny was not just dinking and dunking in '82.  His 11.4 yards per completion was higher than the league average in 2021 (11.0). 

Ken Anderson was also a much better runner.  When Ken retired in '86 the only other QB with 30K passing yards and 2K rushing yard was Fran Tarkenton.  Among all players in NFL history with at least 300 rushes Anderson is #13 in yards per carry (5.6).  He had 4 seasons where he averaged over 7.0 yards per carry including 2 with over 300 yards.

Burrow is a damn good QB and easily among the best playing today.  But Ken Anderson set multiple NFL passing records with some of them standing for decades, and he was a much better runner than Burrow.  Burrow just is not in his class yet.

I’m a huge Anderson fan. His ‘75 and ‘81 seasons were incredible. I agree with most of the points above, his mobility, accuracy and arm strength were outstanding.

The ‘82 completion % is diminished by the fact that it was a nine game strike shortened season. The Bengals had games vs. Washington, Dallas and Miami cancelled. Three of the best teams in the league.

Would we compare a baseball player hitting .400 in mid July to Ted Williams?

[fredtoast]

(05-30-2022, 11:33 AM)Ctfan73 Wrote: The ‘82 completion % is diminished by the fact that it was a nine game strike shortened season. The Bengals had games vs. Washington, Dallas and Miami cancelled. Three of the best teams in the league.

Anderson still played against the regular lineups (not replacements) of the #4 defense (Pitt) and #5 defense (Sea) in the league and completed over 73% of his passes against them (49-67)

(05-30-2022, 11:33 AM)Ctfan73 Wrote: Would we compare a baseball player hitting .400 in mid July to Ted Williams?

Yes, any player hitting over .400 after playing 90 games would be compared to Williams.  Especially since the league batting average is about 20 points lower now than in the '40's when Williams played.  That is pretty sad considering that now we have the designated hitter in both leagues.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-30-2022, 11:54 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Anderson still played against the regular lineups (not replacements) of the #4 defense (Pitt) and #5 defense (Sea) in the league and completed over 73% of his passes against them (49-67)




Yes, any player hitting over .400 after playing 90 games would be compared to Williams.  Especially since the league batting average is about 20 points lower now than in the '40's when Williams played.  That is pretty sad considering that now we have the designated hitter in both leagues.

Funny how Joe Burrow has to get in a few more seasons and doesn't get the same latitude huh ?

[fredtoast]

(05-30-2022, 12:05 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Funny how Joe Burrow has to get in a few more seasons and doesn't get the same latitude huh ?

I have no idea what you are talking about.

If Burrow was on pace to break a major passing record through 9 games I am sure everyone would be giving him tons of credit.

[*bengalfan74*]

(05-30-2022, 01:29 PM)fredtoast Wrote: I have no idea what you are talking about.

If Burrow was on pace to break a major passing record through 9 games I am sure everyone would be giving him tons of credit.

Uh huh 

[fredtoast]

(05-30-2022, 06:08 PM)bengalfan74 Wrote: Uh huh 

Seriously, I have no clue what Burrow having to get in a few more seasons has to do with someone hitting .400 halfway through a baseball season.

If you have a point why not just explain it instead of posting the deeply profound "Uh Huh".