What's Tee Higgins value

[J24]

How much do you think the Bengals are willing to pay him next off season? His contract is due after 2023!

[fredtoast]

For a little perspective here are the number of WRs in each range for 2022 (based on average yearly salary)

25-30 million..... 5
20-25 million..... 6
15-20 million.....11
10-15 million.....11
  5-10 million.....12


So the top 45 WRs make $5 million a year.  That seems kind of low considering just the top 2 for 32 teams makes 64.  The #64 paid WR makes just $3.1 million.

[KillerGoose]

I ran a really quick experiment on this earlier in the off-season. In 2021, there were six receivers ahead of Higgins in yards per game. These receivers were Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuels, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and Chase. I used Spotrac's Market Value tab to come up with a theoretical figure. Here is what I found...

Cooper Kupp - $26.7MM (recent extension)
Davante Adams - $28MM (recent new contract)
Deebo Samuels - $24.5MM (market value estimate)
Chris Godwin - $20.7MM (market value estimate)
Justin Jefferson/Chase - No market value estimate available

I then just averaged those up to get a Higgins number. It comes out to $24.97MM per year. If Higgins stays healthy and continues his line of production, I think he will command between $20MM and $25MM.

[WeezyBengal]

(06-15-2022, 04:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I ran a really quick experiment on this earlier in the off-season. In 2021, there were six receivers ahead of Higgins in yards per game. These receivers were Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuels, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and Chase. I used Spotrac's Market Value tab to come up with a theoretical figure. Here is what I found...

Cooper Kupp - $26.7MM (recent extension)
Davante Adams - $28MM (recent new contract)
Deebo Samuels - $24.5MM (market value estimate)
Chris Godwin - $20.7MM (market value estimate)
Justin Jefferson/Chase - No market value estimate available

I then just averaged those up to get a Higgins number. It comes out to $24.97MM per year. If Higgins stays healthy and continues his line of production, I think he will command between $20MM and $25MM.

This is what I was thinking 20-25. It's all fluid, though. It depends on the market, the cap increase, his production this year, etc. 

[Luvnit2]

(06-15-2022, 03:57 PM)J24 Wrote: How much  do you think the Bengals are willing to pay him next off season? His contract is due after 2023!

Can the Bengals tag him also?

[J24]

(06-15-2022, 04:56 PM)Luvnit2 Wrote: Can the Bengals tag him also?

It depends if they sign Wilson to a longterm deal by that time.

[Au165]

(06-15-2022, 04:24 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: I ran a really quick experiment on this earlier in the off-season. In 2021, there were six receivers ahead of Higgins in yards per game. These receivers were Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Deebo Samuels, Justin Jefferson, Chris Godwin, and Chase. I used Spotrac's Market Value tab to come up with a theoretical figure. Here is what I found...

Cooper Kupp - $26.7MM (recent extension)
Davante Adams - $28MM (recent new contract)
Deebo Samuels - $24.5MM (market value estimate)
Chris Godwin - $20.7MM (market value estimate)
Justin Jefferson/Chase - No market value estimate available

I then just averaged those up to get a Higgins number. It comes out to $24.97MM per year. If Higgins stays healthy and continues his line of production, I think he will command between $20MM and $25MM.

Ideally I'd love to use a Mike Williams deal something in the shorter length more guarantee but maybe slightly below market value.

[KillerGoose]

(06-15-2022, 04:53 PM)WeezyBengal Wrote: This is what I was thinking 20-25. It's all fluid, though. It depends on the market, the cap increase, his production this year, etc. 

Yep, definitely other factors influencing it. Putting it all together, though, tells a story that many of us have already been warning folks about. 

Joe Burrow - $40.5MM (market value estimate)
Higgins - $24.97MM
Chase  - $26.4MM (estimated value using the same method I did with Higgins). 

A total of $91.87MM tied up in three guys, if they try to go that route. Honestly, $40.5MM could be on the lower side for Burrow, depending on how well he plays this year. If Burrow lights it up again and the Bengals have more playoff success, I wouldn't be shocked to see Burrow closer to the range of $50MM, but it is hard to say. $40MM is a safe bet. 

Either way, this team has some big personnel choices to make very soon.

[KillerGoose]

(06-15-2022, 04:59 PM)Au165 Wrote: Ideally I'd love to use a Mike Williams deal something in the shorter length more guarantee but maybe slightly below market value.

Have the Bengals shown much of a tendency to take advantage of void years? I honestly don't know. 

[Au165]

(06-15-2022, 05:02 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Have the Bengals shown much of a tendency to take advantage of void years? I honestly don't know. 

They have started the last two seasons. 

[treee]

I don't think he is a guarantee to set the market but I think he'll for sure be top 5 or 10 at the time that the deal is inked. Hoping the team really invests in him and signs him to 4 or 5 year contract.

[*ochocincos*]

(06-15-2022, 03:57 PM)J24 Wrote: How much  do you think the Bengals are willing to pay him next off season? His contract is due after 2023!

Tee Higgins had the 17th most receiving yards last year.
Take out the TEs and he's 15th.
So I'd say right now he deserves to be paid as the 10th-20th WR in the league. That would put him firmly in the $15-20 mill APY range.

[THE PISTONS]

(06-15-2022, 04:14 PM)fredtoast Wrote: For a little perspective here are the number of WRs in each range for 2022 (based on average yearly salary)

25-30 million..... 5
20-25 million..... 6
15-20 million.....11
10-15 million.....11
  5-10 million.....12


So the top 45 WRs make $5 million a year.  That seems kind of low considering just the top 2 for 32 teams makes 64.  The #64 paid WR makes just $3.1 million.

The low are likely rookie guys. It would be interesting to see a list of 2nd contract WR.

You see the Titans trades AJ Brown rather than pay him.

[*pally*]

Higgins will expect to be paid like a WR1 because that will be his free-agent market. Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb will set the market for 2024 WR free agents whether they sign with their current teams or hit the market. Tee will earn less than that unless another team acts like the Jaguars did with Christian Kirk and way overpays...and frankly that may happen with Higgins. He WILL be sought after in free agency. And we should keep in mind that Tee's agent is David Mulugheta who also happens to represent Jessie Bates and is known as one of the toughest agents in sports.

We need to anticipate that Chase will expect to be the highest-paid WR in the NFL when his contract is extended as long as he continues on his current career arc.

[*Synric*]

(06-15-2022, 07:23 PM)pally Wrote: Higgins will expect to be paid like a WR1 because that will be his free-agent market.  Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb will set the market for 2024 WR free agents whether they sign with their current teams or hit the market.  Tee will earn less than that unless another team acts like the Jaguars did with Christian Kirk and way overpays...and frankly that may happen with Higgins. He WILL be sought after in free agency.  And we should keep in mind that Tee's agent is David Mulugheta who also happens to represent Jessie Bates and is known as one of the toughest agents in sports.

We need to anticipate that Chase will expect to be the highest-paid WR in the NFL when his contract is extended as long as he continues on his current career arc.

This.

I expect Tee to play out his rookie contract in Cincinnati and move on to another team for a large contract. Tee is a high quality tag and trade candidate if they draft a big bodied possession receiver in 2023. 

[SunsetBengal]

(06-15-2022, 07:23 PM)pally Wrote: Higgins will expect to be paid like a WR1 because that will be his free-agent market.  Justin Jefferson and CeeDee Lamb will set the market for 2024 WR free agents whether they sign with their current teams or hit the market.  Tee will earn less than that unless another team acts like the Jaguars did with Christian Kirk and way overpays...and frankly that may happen with Higgins. He WILL be sought after in free agency.  And we should keep in mind that Tee's agent is David Mulugheta who also happens to represent Jessie Bates and is known as one of the toughest agents in sports.

We need to anticipate that Chase will expect to be the highest-paid WR in the NFL when his contract is extended as long as he continues on his current career arc.

I've brought that up in other conversations, and it is a topic worth talking about.  There is just no way that the team will be able to keep Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd together once this round of contracts expire.

The truth is that the team NEEDS to keep a competent OL in front of Joe.  As we've seen with other franchise QBs, he will have to learn to develop his receiving targets in order to keep the cap under control.  Some of those voids won't have to always be filled with developing talent, as some aging veterans might like the opportunity to come and play with Joe Burrow for one last shot at a ring, under a cap friendly contract.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

Still think Tee has tons of upside, as others noted. Tee can easily be a top 10 WR so I think his value is around 20-25 mpy.

Would be all for paying it too as long as we can still afford Burrow and Chase. Always thought we would have to let Boyd go
somewhere else. Too bad, great man and player and one of the top Slot WR's in the game. Hope we win a SB before he goes.

[*Go Cards*]

Big fan of Higgins, but he will cost more than the Bengals will be able to afford to pay.

They can tag him but I'm not a fan of doing that. Imo if the player earns his money and you're not willing to pay that amount, then let him go get it elsewhere.

Careers are short in the NFL and you have to get yours while you can and Tee deserves his payday.

For what its worth I believe he will get around $18-20 million a year. As Pistons pointed out the list shown includes rookie contracts that make it appear lower somewhat.

[*pally*]

(06-15-2022, 08:24 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Still think Tee has tons of upside, as others noted. Tee can easily be a top 10 WR so I think his value is around 20-25 mpy.

Would be all for paying it too as long as we can still afford Burrow and Chase. Always thought we would have to let Boyd go
somewhere else. Too bad, great man and player and one of the top Slot WR's in the game. Hope we win a SB before he goes.

It may not all come to money for Tee.  A receiver of his talents wants to be THE GUY which he will never be in Cincinnati as long as Chase is around.  Unlike TJ who was a prototypical slot guy and was overreaching to think he could be #1WR, Tee does have the skills and talents to be the WR1 on most teams. He was drafted here to replace AJ Green.  The team never expected to be in the position to get a player like Chase the next year.  I do not expect Tee to be a Bengal after his rookie contract.  If he is, I'll be shocked and thrilled.  He will go on to another team and finally get the recognition he deserves

[Whatever]

(06-15-2022, 08:20 PM)SunsetBengal Wrote: I've brought that up in other conversations, and it is a topic worth talking about.  There is just no way that the team will be able to keep Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd together once this round of contracts expire.

The truth is that the team NEEDS to keep a competent OL in front of Joe.  As we've seen with other franchise QBs, he will have to learn to develop his receiving targets in order to keep the cap under control.  Some of those voids won't have to always be filled with developing talent, as some aging veterans might like the opportunity to come and play with Joe Burrow for one last shot at a ring, under a cap friendly contract.

You're right in that it's not realistic to keep those guys together. They won't let Burrow go.  They also aren't likely going to let Chase go.  I put Boyd at 50/50.  He might stay on a relatively team friendly deal.  Higgins best case scenario is they keep him on the FT for a 5th season before he hits FA.

Higgins is very difficult to put a fair dollar figure on at this point.  Folks will point to the fact that he has one year of mid tier WR1 production, but the other side of that coin is that he did primarily facing CB2's and was not the DC's primary focus.  To me, it's very difficult to pay a guy $25+ mil APY like a WR1 when I haven't seen him defended like a WR1 for an appreciable sample size and watched him still produce at that level.  If you took money out of the equation, would you trade Higgins right now for Cooper Kupp?  Davonte Adams?  Stefon Diggs?  Justin Jefferson?  Tyreek Hill?  Mike Evans?  Deebo Samuel?  Terry McLaurin?  

The FA dollars need to go into the OL instead of Higgins as a WR2 for the simple fact that this team has not had success drafting OL for going on a decade.  John Ross aside, the Bengals' track record with Day 1 and 2 picks at WR has been pretty stellar.  I feel a lot more confident in the Bengals drafting a replacement for Higgins than Jonah Williams.