Did We get Lucky?

[J24]

With Burrow tearing his ACL his rookie season?

I was watching the herd and they were talking about Andrew Lucks career and how it ended. The very first couple of seasons he lead a team that had no business being in the playoffs to conference championship. As a result the Colts wouldd never be able to draft that top star to go along with Luck until his last season in the NFL.

That got me thinking if Burrow doesn't get hurt we probably win more games to end the Season and it gets us out of the Chase sweepstakes. If we do not have Chase do we make the playoffs or Superbowl? Probably. not right? Also does our future look as bright without Chase?

[WeezyBengal]

I mean I guess that's one way to look at it.

It's not like the Colts didn't have other draft picks they could have used to enhance the team. We got Tee in the second round, Boyd in the second, Mixon in the second, etc. I think you could argue the Colts did a bad job drafting overall when they had Luck.

Also, you don't need to solely rely on the draft in order to supplement your team, though. You can go out and get productive FAs who can make your team better. The Colts never really seemed to do that from my recollection when they had Luck.

[*bengalfan74*]

It's good that things worked out the way they did, I guess.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

No. Burrow getting his knee destroyed is never going to be "lucky". Having a long healthy career for Burrow where he never has any major surgeries would be lucky.

The Bengals were also 2-7-1 with Burrow as the starter, and 2-6 without him. So the idea that they would have won more games and not had a chance to take Chase is hardly any kind of guarantee or even a strong likelihood.

[J24]

(07-11-2022, 04:20 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: No. Burrow getting his knee destroyed is never going to be "lucky". Having a long healthy career for Burrow where he never has any major surgeries would be lucky.

The Bengals were also 2-7-1 with Burrow as the starter, and 2-6 without him. So the idea that they would have won more games and not had a chance to take Chase is hardly any kind of guarantee or even a strong likelihood.

Outside of the Steelers and Ravens games all of the games we lost were 1 score games witb Burrow in tbe lineup. To say we wouldn't  have beaten the Giants, Dolphins,  and Cowboys is a bit of an odd statement. Considering that the offense was much better with Burrow at the helm.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-11-2022, 04:40 PM)J24 Wrote: Outside of the Steelers and Ravens games all of the games we lost were 1 score games witb Burrow in tbe lineup. To say we wouldn't  have beaten the Giants, Dolphins,  and Cowboys is a bit of an odd statement. Considering that the offense was much better with Burrow at the helm.

Just seems awfully strange to assume victories on a 2-7-1 team. One of the two wins came from the 1-15 Jags and the tie came against the equally 4-11-1 Eagles. Most games in the NFL are 1 score games. That's the NFL. I did a whole thing a couple years back that if all 1 score losses were instead turned to wins for every single team, the NFL would have had only 2 teams with losing records at 7-9. That's the NFL. 

Also, the Dolphins were 10-6, had the 15th scoring offense and 6th scoring defense in 2020. Why is that an odd statement? As for the Cowboys, Dalton absolutely lit up the Bengals 30-7, Burrow wasn't going to do shit about that in 2020. For whatever reason Dalton absolutely has the Bengals number since leaving them, 2-0 and a 122.3 QB Rating despite both games coming on pretty bad teams.

[ATOTR]

Maybe a little.

Sort of like when David Robison missed 90% of the Spurs 1996 season, and they drafted 1 in 1007 and took Tim Duncan.

Cheers to 5 titles in the next 10 years, just like the Spurs did. Ha

[ATOTR]

(07-11-2022, 05:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Also, the Dolphins were 10-6, had the 15th scoring offense and 6th scoring defense in 2020. Why is that an odd statement? As for the Cowboys, Dalton absolutely lit up the Bengals 30-7, Burrow wasn't going to do shit about that in 2020. For whatever reason Dalton absolutely has the Bengals number since leaving them, 2-0 and a 122.3 QB Rating despite both games coming on pretty bad teams.

That is odd - kinda like bakers anomalous numbers/ownership of us. 

Dalton has been one of the worst QBs in the football over the last 3 years, he would be even worse without those 2  bengals abberations 

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-11-2022, 05:25 PM)ATOTR Wrote: That is odd - kinda like bakers anomalous numbers/ownership of us. 

Dalton has been one of the worst QBs in the football over the last 3 years, he would be even worse without those 2  bengals abberations 

He's been bad, but he's also been on bad teams (which is I guess why they signed a guy who is now a borderline starter/backup player). His numbers against the Bengals are certainly strange though. As you said, kind of Bakerish in weird domination.

Interestingly he's gone 7-8 the last 2 years as a starter, on teams that went 5-13 when he wasn't starting for him those two years.

Will be interesting to see what happens in New Orleans this year if Winston gets hurt again. Bengals play the Saints Week 6.

[QueenCity]

There isn't another WR that we could of realistically got that would of made the impact Chase did for Burrow this past season.

What would of our record been early this season if not for all those bombs to Chase that kept us in games? Not good I'd bet.

Sure lucky... but I'm not wishing that kind of luck on our starting QB. I do think without that injury we win that Washington game and perhaps 1-2 more. Which knocks us out of the Chase sweepstakes.

[J24]

(07-11-2022, 05:10 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Just seems awfully strange to assume victories on a 2-7-1 team. One of the two wins came from the 1-15 Jags and the tie came against the equally 4-11-1 Eagles. Most games in the NFL are 1 score games. That's the NFL. I did a whole thing a couple years back that if all 1 score losses were instead turned to wins for every single team, the NFL would have had only 2 teams with losing records at 7-9. That's the NFL. 

Also, the Dolphins were 10-6, had the 15th scoring offense and 6th scoring defense in 2020. Why is that an odd statement? As for the Cowboys, Dalton absolutely lit up the Bengals 30-7, Burrow wasn't going to do shit about that in 2020. For whatever reason Dalton absolutely has the Bengals number since leaving them, 2-0 and a 122.3 QB Rating despite both games coming on pretty bad teams.

It's an odd statement because you are ignoring the impact of what a franchise QB has on a team. Do I really have to explain  the difference between Joe Burrow  vs Brandon Allen at QB?

Also ignoring  the fact that they lost 3 1 score games against Cleveland and the Colts(2 on the final drives). They also beat a playoff team in the Titans. Joe was starting to find is groove if he was able to stay healthy then yes the team would have won more games in all likelihood.

[J24]

(07-11-2022, 05:23 PM)ATOTR Wrote: Maybe a little.

Sort of like when David Robison missed 90% of the Spurs 1996 season, and they drafted 1 in 1007 and took Tim Duncan.

Cheers to 5 titles in the next 10 years, just like the Spurs did.  Ha

Exactly!

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(07-11-2022, 06:27 PM)J24 Wrote: It's an odd statement because you are ignoring the impact of what a franchise QB has on a team. Do I really have to explain  the difference between Joe Burrow  vs Brandon Allen at QB?

Also ignoring  the fact that they lost 3 1 score games against Cleveland and the Colts(2 on the final drives). They also beat a playoff team in the Titans. Joe was starting to find is groove if he was able to stay healthy then yes the team would have won more games in all likelihood.

The same impact that went 2-7-1. It clearly wasn't enough impact in 2020 to win more games in the first 10 tries, why would the final 6 be magically different?

I didn't ignore one score games, I specifically addressed that. A ton of games in the NFL are one score games. Saying you lost a bunch of 1 score games just means you lost a lot of games, making you a bad team.

The 2020 1-15 Jaguars also beat a playoff team in the Colts. Then they lost 15 straight, including 7 1-score losses.
The 2020 2-14 Jets also beat TWO playoff teams in the Rams and Browns. They still lost 13 straight.
The 2020 4-12 Falcons had 8 1-score losses.
The 2020 4-12 Texans had 8 1-score losses.

In his final 2 games Burrow had 58.1% completion, 416 yards (5.6 YPA), 82.9 QB Rating, and scored just 19 points in over 6 quarters of football. That's a groove? 

[*jason*]

(07-11-2022, 07:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The same impact that went 2-7-1. It clearly wasn't enough impact in 2020 to win more games in the first 10 tries, why would the final 6 be magically different?

I didn't ignore one score games, I specifically addressed that. A ton of games in the NFL are one score games. Saying you lost a bunch of 1 score games just means you lost a lot of games, making you a bad team.

The 2020 1-15 Jaguars also beat a playoff team in the Colts. Then they lost 15 straight, including 7 1-score losses.
The 2020 2-14 Jets also beat TWO playoff teams in the Rams and Browns. They still lost 13 straight.
The 2020 4-12 Falcons had 8 1-score losses.
The 2020 4-12 Texans had 8 1-score losses.

In his final 2 games Burrow had 58.1% completion, 416 yards (5.6 YPA), 82.9 QB Rating, and scored just 19 points in over 6 quarters of football. That's a groove? 

The 0-16 Browns had 7 one score losses that season. I hated it when we were hanging out hat on that.

[*bengalfan74*]

(07-11-2022, 07:36 PM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: The same impact that went 2-7-1. It clearly wasn't enough impact in 2020 to win more games in the first 10 tries, why would the final 6 be magically different?

I didn't ignore one score games, I specifically addressed that. A ton of games in the NFL are one score games. Saying you lost a bunch of 1 score games just means you lost a lot of games, making you a bad team.

The 2020 1-15 Jaguars also beat a playoff team in the Colts. Then they lost 15 straight, including 7 1-score losses.
The 2020 2-14 Jets also beat TWO playoff teams in the Rams and Browns. They still lost 13 straight.
The 2020 4-12 Falcons had 8 1-score losses.
The 2020 4-12 Texans had 8 1-score losses.

In his final 2 games Burrow had 58.1% completion, 416 yards (5.6 YPA), 82.9 QB Rating, and scored just 19 points in over 6 quarters of football. That's a groove? 

Exactly, I hate it when fans, people, coaches, announcers, talking heads and so on try and spin the 1 score crud out there. Like you say every NFL team good/bad/medium loses 1 score games nearly every season.

It's a poor excuse.

[*bfine32*]

No. Burrow is the Sun, the rest of the players revolve around him. Getting his ACL torn was not lucky.

[Whatever]

(07-11-2022, 05:42 PM)QueenCity Wrote: There isn't another WR that we could of realistically got that would of made the impact Chase did for Burrow this past season.

What would of our record been early this season if not for all those bombs to Chase that kept us in games?  Not good I'd bet.

Sure lucky... but I'm not wishing that kind of luck on our starting QB.  I do think without that injury we win that Washington game and perhaps 1-2 more. Which knocks us out of the Chase sweepstakes.

Honestly, that draft had some insane talent at the top.  Sewell and Chase were hotly debated, but guys like Pitts(2nd rookie TE in history to have a 1000 yard season), Waddle(Set the rookie record for receptions), Parsons, and Slater were also monsters their rookie years.  

Ultimately, the Bengals got the right guy for them.  That's extremely lucky.  It they were even one pick down the order, they likely wouldn't have.  They still would have gotten a great player in all likelihood, but they probably don't even make the playoffs, let alone have the playoff run they did.

[puddycat]

We had a better record after Joe was injured, so what's our record with him in there? He was on pace to set a record for attempts as a rookie, so what were the chances that the coaches would continue to throw him to the wolves behind that OL until he got hurt this year? Would Tee have done even better in his rookie season, pushing down the need for a WR in the coaches' minds? If we don't draft Chase, do we draft Sewell or Slater? I so, do we draft Carman in round 2 or stay put and take Barmore? And then we don't sign BJ Hill.
It's great that we have Chase, nuff said.

[Au165]

It's weird how TY Hilton has been disregarded by some (Not directed at OP) in the narrative to paint Luck as having no help.

[*ochocincos*]

(07-11-2022, 03:49 PM)J24 Wrote: With  Burrow tearing his ACL his rookie season?

I was watching the herd and they were talking about Andrew Lucks career and how it ended.  The very first  couple of seasons he lead a team that had  no business being in the playoffs to conference championship. As a result the Colts wouldd never be able to draft that top star to go along with Luck until  his last season in the NFL.

That got me thinking if Burrow  doesn't  get hurt we probably win more games to end the Season and it gets us out of the   Chase sweepstakes. If we do not have  Chase do we make the playoffs or Superbowl? Probably. not right? Also does our future look as bright without Chase?

Hypothetically, let's assume that with a healthy Burrow in 2020 the Bengals would have picked in the 15-20 range of the draft.
If the Bengals would have taken a WR, it likely would have been either Bateman or Toney.
OL could have also been in play, with either Leatherwood or Darrisaw being the pick.
DL or DB could have also been in play.

There were definitely some games that Chase was a big reason they won in 2021. I don't think Bateman, Toney, or a defensive player would have necessarily contributed as much in 2021 as Chase did.
About the only thing I think may have come close is having one of the OL. One could have slotted in at RG.
And if an OL would have been taken in Rd 1, we probably wouldn't have seen Carman selected.
Instead, maybe it would have been Terrace Marshall. He didn't do much with CAR last year, but they had Darnold at QB (downgrade from Burrow) and he was behind Moore, Anderson, and McCaffrey in targets. He may have put up somewhere in the 500-800 range if he were a Bengal.