Confession of a Dalton Defender

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 12:43 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Is completion percentage a "made up stat" or is there a calculation required like in passer rating?

Do yourself a favor and live to fight another day.

lol really? completion percentage is the % passes that are completed. It deals with the same variables, and it's all from a common stat. Passer rating gives values on stats that have all different variables, and adds them all together. Passer rating just tries to add things together that can't be added together. It's like trying to add 3 apples, 7 oranges, and 3 chicken breasts.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 11:35 AM)Brownshoe Wrote: Thanks for agreeing with me that WCO is effected negatively with passer rating. Unless you think a lot of short to intermediate throws will lead to big YPA. In 2013 there were only 3 QBs that had more attempts than Dalton and still had a higher rating, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Matt Ryan (who only had .8 passer rating higher than him). That year he averaged ~37 attempts per game, and other QBs like Newton (29), Kaepernick (26), and Wilson (25).

I'd never disagree that YPA is a big factor in a single game. Over a season it's not. Go back and check the seasonal examples i gave in an earlier post and you will see how close they are.

Standard QB rating does not favor one QB over another after a reasonable amount of data is accumulated.

EDIT: I'll just copy/paste it here.

It doesn't hurt anyone any more or less since averages are used. The yards / attempts have a multiplier of 1/4 of one percent (EDIT: incorrect. It's 1/4 of 1-- X .25). Examples: Rodgers- 4,381/520(8.43ypa) x .25= 2.11 , Rivers- 4,286/570(7.52) x .25= 1.88 , Wilson- 3,475/452(7.69) x .25= 1.92 , G.Smith- 2,525/367(6.88) x .25= 1.72 , Dalton- 3,398/481(7.06) x .25= 1.77 , Locker- 993/146(6.80) x .25= 1.70

Rodgers-- 2.11 -- att. 520 -- yds. 4,381
Rivers ---- 1.88 -- att. 570 -- yds. 4,286
Wilson --- 1.92 -- att. 452 -- yds. 3,475
G.Smith---1.72 -- att. 367 -- yds. 2,525
Dalton --- 1.77 -- att. 481 -- yds. 3,398
Locker --- 1.70 -- att. 146 -- yds. 993

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 12:04 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Even if you add 1 INT to both of them you get QB1 = 91.3, and QB2 100.4

YPA is too heavily favored in passer rating. People who are in a WCO who have a lot more attempts, and short to intermediate throws get penalized because of that. QB1 should have a higher passer rating than QB2, but he doesn't.

What QB would you want to start for you? That was the whole point. I know how passer rating is calculated.

YPA is a heavy factor in a small sample size. The larger the sample size, the smaller the factor.

The QB i want starting for me is one that doesn't look completely different in the post season than he does in the regular season. The one who improves as he gains more experience and doesn't make the same mistakes.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 12:18 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Passer rating is still a made up stat. I put it in the same group as QBR, so my bad for mixing up the names. I wasn't even talking about ESPNs QBR anyways. Everything I said about it is true, so what's your point?

What do you mean by "made up stat"?

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 12:23 PM)PhilHos Wrote: Passer rating is nowhere NEAR QBR. Passer rating is a calculation, but it is solely based on quantifiable stats. TDs, INTs, completions %, etc. These are all measurable. There's no opinion whatsoever. 

QBR adds subjective data which is why it should never be used by anyone wishing their analysis to be taken seriously.

Correct. And the only thing i would add is that it is a rating that was designed to show how a QB personally performs against his peers, throwing the ball, only.

[*rfaulk34*]

(05-28-2015, 12:28 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: No TDs not a made up stat. I can show you film where someone throws a TD, but you can't show film that someone throws passer rating.

But you can be shown the exact calculation that is used to come up with the number. The calculation is based on averages and not raw stats so that one QB isn't helped/hurt more than another.

[*bfine32*]

(05-28-2015, 12:59 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: lol really? completion percentage is the % passes that are completed. It deals with the same variables, and it's all from a common stat. Passer rating gives values on stats that have all different variables, and adds them all together. Passer rating just tries to add things together that can't be added together. It's like trying to add 3 apples, 7 oranges, and 3 chicken breasts.

Can you show me film of a completion percentage?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 01:49 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: YPA is a heavy factor in a small sample size. The larger the sample size, the smaller the factor.

The QB i want starting for me is one that doesn't look completely different in the post season than he does in the regular season. The one who improves as he gains more experience and doesn't make the same mistakes.

Same deal as last time

QB1 =270/430 (62.7%) 3300 yards 22 TDs 11 INTs
QB2 = 380/590 (64.4%) 4200 yards 30 TDs 14 INTs


If you said QB2 you would be wrong. QB1 has 92.7, and QB2 has 91.7. Even though QB2 has 900 more yards 8 more TDs and only 3 more INTs he is rated lower than QB1. I would pick QB2 over QB1 any day of the week.

Oh and you still didn't answer my question about what QB you would pick. I'm not talking about anything other than stats.

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 02:02 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Can you show me film of a completion percentage?

You still miss my point. completion percentage is apples to apples, and passer rating is not.

[*bfine32*]

(05-28-2015, 02:08 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: You still miss my point. completion percentage is apples to apples, and passer rating is not.

Seems like everybody is missing your point. Even the Andy homers.

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 02:09 PM)bfine32 Wrote: Seems like everybody is missing your point. Even the Andy homers.

Sorry you can't understand that passer rating doesn't mean as much as you want it too. It's a flawed stat that doesn't take in cosideration what kind of offense you run.

[djs7685]

(05-28-2015, 02:15 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Sorry you can't understand that passer rating doesn't mean as much as you want it too. It's a flawed stat that doesn't take in cosideration what kind of offense you run.

Do you think some QBs throw more TDs than others or have a higher completion percentage based on the type of offense they run?

I bet those things aren't affected at all by scheme. Only YPA is, which is a small portion of the entire equation of passer rating. All of these "made up" stats are so silly, amirite?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 02:26 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Do you think some QBs throw more TDs than others or have a higher completion percentage based on the type of offense they run?

I bet those things aren't affected at all by scheme. Only YPA is, which is a small portion of the entire equation of passer rating. All of these "made up" stats are so silly, amirite?

Thanks for agreeing with me. I know some people just don't get that different offenses values different stats.

[djs7685]

(05-28-2015, 02:37 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Thanks for agreeing with me. I know some people just don't get that different offenses values different stats.

Okay. So stop bringing up passing TDs as something good for Andy. That made up stat doesn't matter since some teams scheme to score points in other manners.

You really can't have this both ways no matter how much you want to.

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 02:42 PM)djs7685 Wrote: Okay. So stop bringing up passing TDs as something good for Andy. That made up stat doesn't matter since some teams scheme to score points in other manners.

You really can't have this both ways no matter how much you want to.

Actually TDs aren't a made up stat. I think I went over this before. TDs are valued very high in the type of scheme we run (or any scheme for that matter). What does it matter if you get 20 YPA if you don't score.

[djs7685]

(05-28-2015, 02:52 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: Actually TDs aren't a made up stat. I think I went over this before. TDs are valued very high in the type of scheme we run (or any scheme for that matter). What does it matter if you get 20 YPA if you don't score.

The same people that "made up" TDs also "made up" passer rating. They also "made up" what happens when one guy throws a ball to another guy standing at one end of the field. Isn't that crazy?

Passer rating is valued very high in any type of scheme you run to everybody in the world except for Clownshoes.

What does it matter if you get 20 TDs if you don't win?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 03:02 PM)djs7685 Wrote: The same people that "made up" TDs also "made up" passer rating. They also "made up" what happens when one guy throws a ball to another guy standing at one end of the field. Isn't that crazy?

Passer rating is valued very high in any type of scheme you run to everybody in the world except for Clownshoes.

What does it matter if you get 20 TDs if you don't win?

lol passer rating is a made up stat like I said. TDs you can see, and passer rating you can't. You can see completions you cant see passer rating. passer rating wasn't even around for a very long time in the NFL, so are you sure the people who invented the game came up with passer rating too? I don't think they did.

Passer rating takes real stats like completions, TDs, INTs, and attempts and places values on them. Then they add up all the values together, and that's how you get passer rating. Some offenses values some stats more than others, but passer rating doesn't have that taken into consideration.

Can you understand it now, or do I need to explain it again?

well if you score 20 TDs in a game and you don't win that's not on the QB that's on the defense.... because you know winning is a team stat :)

[djs7685]

(05-28-2015, 03:09 PM)Brownshoe Wrote: lol passer rating is a made up stat like I said. TDs you can see, and passer rating you can't. You can see completions you cant see passer rating. passer rating wasn't even around for a very long time in the NFL, so are you sure the people who invented the game came up with passer rating too? I don't think they did.

Passer rating takes real stats like completions, TDs, INTs, and attempts and places values on them. Then they add up all the values together, and that's how you get passer rating. Some offenses values some stats more than others, but passer rating doesn't have that taken into consideration.

Can you understand it now, or do I need to explain it again?

I understand that you're making THE most insane argument that I've ever heard someone attempt to make in the history of Jungle Noise.

Does anybody else think passer rating is a silly, "made up" statistic that doesn't really matter? Anybody? Anybody at all?

[Brownshoe]

(05-28-2015, 03:12 PM)djs7685 Wrote: I understand that you're making THE most insane argument that I've ever heard someone attempt to make in the history of Jungle Noise.

Does anybody else think passer rating is a silly, "made up" statistic that doesn't really matter? Anybody? Anybody at all?

It's such an insane argument that you can't make any valid points against it.

[Shake n Blake]

(05-28-2015, 10:24 AM)djs7685 Wrote: Don't forget about the infamous Bobby Hoyer!

Ugh. Wasn't that the guy who started for the Eagles in the late 90's and started a season with 9 straight INT's without a TD?

I can't believe he's still playing. 

(05-28-2015, 01:42 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: I'd never disagree that YPA is a big factor in a single game. Over a season it's not. Go back and check the seasonal examples i gave in an earlier post and you will see how close they are.

Standard QB rating does not favor one QB over another after a reasonable amount of data is accumulated.

EDIT: I'll just copy/paste it here.

It doesn't hurt anyone any more or less since averages are used. The yards / attempts have a multiplier of 1/4 of one percent (EDIT: incorrect. It's 1/4 of 1-- X .25). Examples: Rodgers- 4,381/520(8.43ypa) x .25= 2.11 , Rivers- 4,286/570(7.52) x .25= 1.88 , Wilson- 3,475/452(7.69) x .25= 1.92 , G.Smith- 2,525/367(6.88) x .25= 1.72 , Dalton- 3,398/481(7.06) x .25= 1.77 , Locker- 993/146(6.80) x .25= 1.70

Rodgers-- 2.11 -- att. 520 -- yds. 4,381
Rivers ---- 1.88 -- att. 570 -- yds. 4,286
Wilson --- 1.92 -- att. 452 -- yds. 3,475
G.Smith---1.72 -- att. 367 -- yds. 2,525
Dalton --- 1.77 -- att. 481 -- yds. 3,398
Locker --- 1.70 -- att. 146 -- yds. 993

When you list numbers like 2.11, 1.88 and 1.77, it makes it seem like there's not a big difference, but you're leaving out the fact that all the numbers are small until they're added together, divided by 6, then multiplied by 100. Here's the entire formula:

(completion % minus 30) x 0.05
(yards per attempt minus 3) x 0.25 --- You were forgetting to subract 3 in your formula
Touchdown % x 0.2
2.375 minus (INT% x 0.25)

Here's the points Dalton was credited for the following stats, with actual passer rating points in parenthesis:

Completion %: 1.71 (28.5)
YPA: 1.02 (17.0)
TD%: 0.79 (13.2)
INT%: 1.49 (24.8)

Here's Aaron Rodgers' for comparison:

Completion %: 1.78 (29.7)
YPA: 1.36 (22.7)
TD%: 1.46 (24.3)
INT%: 2.13 (35.5)

So for Rodgers averaging 1.36 YPA more than Dalton on the season, he was awarded 5.7 more points to his passer rating. Pretty solid bump really.

I do have a lot of problems with the overall formula though. QB's should not be awarded points no matter how lousy their INT% is. Dalton had a bad INT% last year, yet he received his 2nd highest amount of points for that category. Also, rewarding points for both completion % and YPA is kind of redundant, as completion % plays so much into YPA. Instead, they should use yards per completion. I really can't believe that no one has improved on this formula through the years.