Star of the 2022 season.....

[J24]

(09-03-2022, 02:10 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: Good catch. Yes, 5.5 is correct. My database was excluding records and I am not sure, but I fixed it. With penalties included, Cincinnati allowed 5.59 yards per play in the regular season. I am not sure if PFR rounds or goes to the first decimal, but I have Cincinnati's relative ranking at 22nd. Teams 19-22 all are 5.5x, so I'm assuming we have some rounding discrepancies. Regardless, 5.5 is what they allowed in the regular season.

In the post-season, they allowed 5.58. This is what I mean by they were still mediocre on a play-by-play basis. There wasn't a significant improvement here. In turnovers, however, there was. Thus, they performed slightly better in the playoffs as unit.

The reason why I harp on yards per play is because of how important it is for measuring a defenses ability to play consistently. Yards per play moves tightly with points per game. You can fairly accurately predict points allowed by simply looking at yards-per-play. Here are some examples...

Buffalo Bills - 4.62 yards per play. Insert this into our formula y = 5.62454 * 4.62 + -8.6724 and we get 17.2 points per game. They averaged 16.5 ppg in real life. 

Cincinnati Bengals - 5.59 yards per play. y = 5.62454 * 5.59 + -8.6724 and we get 22.76. Cincinnati averaged 21.05 points per game. 

Some of the PPG measures are slightly different than what you'll find on PFR because I am only using the points that the defense allowed, so not kick/punt return TDs, pick sixes, fumble return TDs etc. 

Hell, another even better method is to use Expected Points Allowed. This is more accurate, even. Doing all of the statistical dance, you can predict over half of the leagues PPG to within less than one point. If you raise that to two points, you have 24 teams. If we start the beginning of the conversation again, Cincinnati was ranked 13th in the league by EPA during the regular season. During the playoffs, they were 7th out of 14. However, their raw value did improve...due to turnovers. Not only did they get several of them, but they were incredibly TIMELY. 

All of this to say, Cincinnati on a play-by-play basis was still a mediocre defense in the playoffs. They notched up their turnovers and snagged several very important turnovers. Hell, they intercepted Carr at the goalline, Tannehill on a potential game winning drive and Mahomes in OT. Those turnovers are about as clutch as they come. The defense was clutch when they needed to be and were the driving force of a SB berth. Sometimes, it is more about making the splash plays than it is about being consistently good and that playoff run proved that out. My original post is just a quick summation of all of this; Cincinnati only improved in the turnovers department, which yes, did lower their points allowed. However, there is no evidence to suggest that Cincinnati is going to keep that improvement in turnovers going. I am optimistic with another year in the scheme that they can improve their per play metrics and be a better defense overall this season. 

The defense improved in completion %, YPPA, 3rd %, QB Rating,  Turnovers, and Points allowed during the playoffs.  It wasn't a defense based solely off turnovers. 

[KillerGoose]

(09-04-2022, 04:44 PM)J24 Wrote: The defense improved in completion %, YPPA, 3rd %, QB Rating,  Turnovers, and Points allowed during the playoffs.  It wasn't a defense based solely off turnovers. 

A few things here...

Quote:completion %

Yes, they did. However, this isn't as important. It is the weakest portion of the passer rating formula. I'll touch on this a little more towards the end of the post. 

Quote:YPPA

We are talking a marginal difference. A 3.5% boost (7.15 in the regular season, 6.90 in the postseason). If you want to hang your hat on that, man, be my guest.

Quote:3rd %

Again, a marginal difference. 41.6% in the regular season and 39.6% in the postseason. If you want to point your finger at that, go ahead. Just a heads up, that is a difference of one stop. The Bengals defense was 21-53 on third downs, or 39.6%. If the Bengals were 22-53 instead, they are now at 41.5%. 

Quote:QB Rating

Yes....due to turnovers. They had eight interceptions. Earlier I mentioned that I am not too concerned with completion percentage because it can be very misleading and doesn't tell you much. A QB can complete a bunch of passes but they may not be beneficial. They may just be short little dump-offs and not produce much. For instance, the Bengals defense allowed a passer rating of 93.1 during the regular season, good for 15th. During the postseason, they allowed a passer rating of 77.4. That is fantastic! However, the reason was due to the absurd amount of interceptions they nabbed. They more than doubled their interception percentage. So, back to that 77.4 passer rating in the postseason. The Bengals had a 2.1% interception percentage in the regular season, and a 5% interception percentage in the playoffs. What would that playoff passer rating look like if they instead played to regular season form? To be clear with the math, 157 attempts * 0.021 = 3.2, or 3 interceptions.

A 91 passer rating. If the Bengals didn't intercept eight passes, they would have registered a 91 passer rating against. So, that marginal improvement in YPA and boost in completion percentage doesn't matter much. It was the turnovers. To put it into even further context, Cincinnati's eight interceptions is tied for the 3rd best mark since 1999, trailing teams like the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Buccaneers. 

Quote:Turnovers, and Points allowed 

Yep and yep. Because of the turnovers. Listen, Cincinnati's defense was HUGE reason that they made the Super Bowl. Not only did they get turnovers like crazy, but they were so, so important. There was a critical turnover in nearly every game. It was so incredibly clutch. But on a PLAY-BY-PLAY BASIS, they were still a mediocre defense. They just completely ramped up their turnover game, and made all of them count. That's a big part of defensive play. My concern is that turnovers are volatile and that what they did in the playoffs likely isn't sustainable, which was the whole point of my original post. However, I believe with an extra season in the system, they guys can play better and become a better defense. I'm not down on them at all. 

[casear2727]

(08-30-2022, 11:15 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Not one person has responded in any way that would explain what I disagreed with the Bengals about.  Not one person understands what you mean by that comment.

This is just another case of you making stuff up.

If I am wrong please reply with a quote of the post.  Please don't play the game where you just keep claiming something happened but refuse to quote the post.

We all understood the comment.

We also all understand that you live for the attention your sh!t posts bring you.  It's almost sad to read the patheticness.

[fredtoast]

(09-05-2022, 10:25 AM)casear2727 Wrote: We all understood the comment.

Thank goodness.  Finally someone will explain it to me.

What did the Bengals disagree with me about?

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-04-2022, 04:44 PM)J24 Wrote: The defense improved in completion %, YPPA, 3rd %, QB Rating,  Turnovers, and Points allowed during the playoffs.  It wasn't a defense based solely off turnovers. 

True, plus the way we shut down King Henry for the most part was a thing of beauty. 

DJ Reader was an absolute stud in that game.

Haven't seen the numbers on the Yards Per Carry in the Playoffs but I am pretty sure it is low. This is what I like, a good run 
stopping Defense is what you can build off of. If you can't stop the run it honestly doesn't matter even in this passing league of
today. Have to be able to stop the run first and foremost.

[J24]

(09-05-2022, 01:22 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: True, plus the way we shut down King Henry for the most part was a thing of beauty. 

DJ Reader was an absolute stud in that game.

Haven't seen the numbers on the Yards Per Carry in the Playoffs but I am pretty sure it is low. This is what I like, a good run 
stopping Defense is what you can build off of. If you can't stop the run it honestly doesn't matter even in this passing league of
today. Have to be able to stop the run first and foremost.

The numbers were actually pretty high. Which shocked me.

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-05-2022, 10:31 AM)fredtoast Wrote: Thank goodness.  Finally someone will explain it to me.

What did the Bengals disagree with me about?

That in total snaps, Hill and LO put up almost identical stats.

BJ  Hill: 720 snaps, 38 pressures, 8 sacks, 54 tackles, 30 stops.
LarryO: 752 snaps, 41 pressures, 8 sacks, 45 tackles, 31 stops.  
(from PFF)

I'd say the Bengals aren't "concerned" about LO being gone, thinking that Hill can step in as the #1 and they have a couple guys behind him, to perform as he did last year. 

You could say, if they were concerned, they would have tried harder to sign him. 

[fredtoast]

(09-05-2022, 04:31 PM)rfaulk34 Wrote: That in total snaps, Hill and LO put up almost identical stats.

BJ  Hill: 720 snaps, 38 pressures, 8 sacks, 54 tackles, 30 stops.
LarryO: 752 snaps, 41 pressures, 8 sacks, 45 tackles, 31 stops.  
(from PFF)

I'd say the Bengals aren't "concerned" about LO being gone, thinking that Hill can step in as the #1 and they have a couple guys behind him, to perform as he did last year. 

You could say, if they were concerned, they would have tried harder to sign him. 

But I didn't I was concerned about Hill playing well.   I said I was concerned about the loss of Ogunjobi.  

Does anyone think Hill can equal the combined production of both himself and Larry from '21?

[*rfaulk34*]

(09-05-2022, 04:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But I didn't I was concerned about Hill playing well.   I said I was concerned about the loss of Ogunjobi.  

Does anyone think Hill can equal the combined production of both himself and Larry from '21?

No, but i believe he was saying that, unlike you, the bengals weren't really "concerned" about losing LO. Because of what i said in my previous post.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-05-2022, 04:16 PM)J24 Wrote: The numbers were actually pretty high. Which shocked me.

Wild.

(09-05-2022, 04:41 PM)fredtoast Wrote: But I didn't I was concerned about Hill playing well.   I said I was concerned about the loss of Ogunjobi.  

Does anyone think Hill can equal the combined production of both himself and Larry from '21?

Doesn't have to, he just needs to play as good as he did last year and in the Playoffs and between Carter and Cam Sample
they need to put up about what he did. 4 sacks each, 20 pressures about each, 25 to 27 tackles each and each get around 
15 or so stops. Almost find this likely and this would mean we are just as good at the 3-tech position.

[J24]

(09-04-2022, 10:22 PM)KillerGoose Wrote: A few things here...


Yes, they did. However, this isn't as important. It is the weakest portion of the passer rating formula. I'll touch on this a little more towards the end of the post. 


We are talking a marginal difference. A 3.5% boost (7.15 in the regular season, 6.90 in the postseason). If you want to hang your hat on that, man, be my guest.


Again, a marginal difference. 41.6% in the regular season and 39.6% in the postseason. If you want to point your finger at that, go ahead. Just a heads up, that is a difference of one stop. The Bengals defense was 21-53 on third downs, or 39.6%. If the Bengals were 22-53 instead, they are now at 41.5%. 


Yes....due to turnovers. They had eight interceptions. Earlier I mentioned that I am not too concerned with completion percentage because it can be very misleading and doesn't tell you much. A QB can complete a bunch of passes but they may not be beneficial. They may just be short little dump-offs and not produce much. For instance, the Bengals defense allowed a passer rating of 93.1 during the regular season, good for 15th. During the postseason, they allowed a passer rating of 77.4. That is fantastic! However, the reason was due to the absurd amount of interceptions they nabbed. They more than doubled their interception percentage. So, back to that 77.4 passer rating in the postseason. The Bengals had a 2.1% interception percentage in the regular season, and a 5% interception percentage in the playoffs. What would that playoff passer rating look like if they instead played to regular season form? To be clear with the math, 157 attempts * 0.021 = 3.2, or 3 interceptions.

A 91 passer rating. If the Bengals didn't intercept eight passes, they would have registered a 91 passer rating against. So, that marginal improvement in YPA and boost in completion percentage doesn't matter much. It was the turnovers. To put it into even further context, Cincinnati's eight interceptions is tied for the 3rd best mark since 1999, trailing teams like the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Buccaneers. 


Yep and yep. Because of the turnovers. Listen, Cincinnati's defense was HUGE reason that they made the Super Bowl. Not only did they get turnovers like crazy, but they were so, so important. There was a critical turnover in nearly every game. It was so incredibly clutch. But on a PLAY-BY-PLAY BASIS, they were still a mediocre defense. They just completely ramped up their turnover game, and made all of them count. That's a big part of defensive play. My concern is that turnovers are volatile and that what they did in the playoffs likely isn't sustainable, which was the whole point of my original post. However, I believe with an extra season in the system, they guys can play better and become a better defense. I'm not down on them at all. 

Three Things
 
The 1 extra  third down stop was against the Titans. If Sample doesn't make that stop against Ryan T then the probability of the Titans winning the game would have gone way up. That one stop was crucial to our Superbowl trip.

Secondly The Turnovers the Bengals forced were not flukey Turnovers. It wasn't like the 2005 defense when they were just getting lucky  INTs. Tight coverage  was the main reason for the turnovers in the playoffs. 

Thirdly here is what our playoff stats would have looked like if it was done in the  regular season.
% 4th
YPPA-9th
3Rd %- 15th
INT 1st
QB Rating 4th

Actual regular season stats
% 26th
YPPA- 20th
3rd %- 22nd 
INT- 15th 
QB Rating-18th

It's also important to note that The Bengals were playing three top QBs in Mahomes, Carr, and Stafford. So of  course their numbers are not going to be dominant.

[KillerGoose]

(09-05-2022, 05:27 PM)J24 Wrote: Three Things
 
The 1 extra  third down stop was against the Titans. If Sample doesn't make that stop against Ryan T then the probability of the Titans winning the game would have gone way up. That one stop was crucial to our Superbowl trip.

Secondly The Turnovers the Bengals forced were not flukey Turnovers. It wasn't like the 2005 defense when they were just getting lucky  INTs. Tight coverage  was the main reason for the turnovers in the playoffs. 

Thirdly here is what our playoff stats would have looked like if it was done in the  regular season.
% 4th
YPPA-9th
3Rd %- 15th
INT 1st
QB Rating 4th

Actual regular season stats
% 26th
YPPA- 20th
3rd %- 22nd 
INT- 15th 
QB Rating-18th

It's also important to note that The Bengals were playing three top QBs in Mahomes, Carr, and Stafford. So of  course their numbers are not going to be dominant.

You can’t just choose a random third down stop and say “yep, this is the one, and it is why we went to the Super Bowl.” It could have been any of the stopped third downs that converted. Maybe Las Vegas converts an extra third down and kicks a FG, the Bengals still win. Who knows? My point is that you’re pointing to a one stop difference and saying “yeah, they improved.” It’s a marginal, weak argument.

I never said the interceptions were flukey, so I don’t know why you’re making that point. I said they were volatile and inconsistent. They are. It’s not a trend that is likely to continue. Look, if you want to point your fingers at a handful of metrics where they marginally improved and say that they weren’t a defense that thrived off of turnovers, then be my guest. We obviously disagree. Cincinnati improved their interception ratio by 138% in the playoffs; they improved the rest of these metrics you’re pointing to by less than 4%.

Finally, your projected rankings. I am not personally concerned with completion percentage. The relative YPA ranking is a big jump, but the statistical difference is very minor. The biggest difference is the interceptions. The Bengals were 18th in the regular season in passer rating. If their playoff performance stayed the exact same but instead of the eight interceptions, they had three (the math is in my original post), they go from 18th to 15th. They thrived on turnovers. I’m not sure what else to say.

So, agree to disagree. I think we both agree that the unit could do great things this season and I’m really looking forward to this weekend.

[fredtoast]

(09-05-2022, 05:27 PM)J24 Wrote: Secondly The Turnovers the Bengals forced were not flukey Turnovers. It wasn't like the 2005 defense when they were just getting lucky  INTs. Tight coverage  was the main reason for the turnovers in the playoffs. 

So let me get this straight.

The Bengals had more interceptions than any team in the league in '05 by a very wide margin (7 more than the #2 team).  That was part of a 4 year stretch ('04-'07) where they had more interceptions than any team in the league (8 more than the Bears). But all those picks were "lucky".

Meanwhile a team that finished 15th in the league in interceptions in '21 gets 8 in a four game stretch and those are all due to "tight coverage".  Because we all know BJ Hill is famous for his tight pass coverage skills.

[J24]

(09-05-2022, 06:03 PM)fredtoast Wrote: So let me get this straight.

The Bengals had more interceptions than any team in the league in '05 by a very wide margin (7 more than the #2 team).  That was part of a 4 year stretch ('04-'07) where they had more interceptions than any team in the league (8 more than the Bears). But all those picks were "lucky".

Meanwhile a team that finished 15th in the league in interceptions in '21 gets 8 in a four game stretch and those are all due to "tight coverage".  Because we all know BJ Hill is famous for his tight pass coverage skills.

The Defense was bottom 10 in every passing stat except for passing TDs, QB Rating, and INTs

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-05-2022, 06:13 PM)J24 Wrote: The Defense was bottom 10 in every passing stat except for passing TDs, QB Rating, and INTs

Yeah, they were a bad Defense in those years. But their Secondary had decent hands lol

[fredtoast]

(09-05-2022, 06:13 PM)J24 Wrote: The Defense was bottom 10 in every passing stat except for passing TDs, QB Rating, and INTs

(09-05-2022, 06:28 PM)Nate (formerly eliminate08) Wrote: Yeah, they were a bad Defense in those years. But their Secondary had decent hands lol

You all completely missed my point.

The '05 Bengals pass defense was quite a bit better than the '21 pass defense.  It is silly to call interception from '05 "lucky" and interception in '21 "due to tight coverage".  Especially since the Bengals led the entire league in interception not only for '05 but also for a 4 year span from "04 through '07.

When something happens for just a 4 GAME span it is far more lucky than if it happens for a 4 YEAR span.

[Fan_in_Kettering]

My pick for Star of the 2022 Season is Germaine Pratt. His tackling down the stretch last season was amazing and let’s not forget his crucial interception sealed the deal against the Raiders in the playoffs.

[*Nate (formerly eliminate08)*]

(09-06-2022, 09:30 AM)fredtoast Wrote: You all completely missed my point.

The '05 Bengals pass defense was quite a bit better than the '21 pass defense.  It is silly to call interception from '05 "lucky" and interception in '21 "due to tight coverage".  Especially since the Bengals led the entire league in interception not only for '05 but also for a 4 year span from "04 through '07.

When something happens for just a 4 GAME span it is far more lucky than if it happens for a 4 YEAR span.

I guess I understand that point, I never said all those INT's were lucky in that span though either.

Neither scenario is luck IMO.

(09-06-2022, 10:09 AM)Fan_in_Kettering Wrote: My pick for Star of the 2022 Season is Germaine Pratt.  His tackling down the stretch last season was amazing and let’s not forget his crucial interception sealed the deal against the Raiders in the playoffs.

Good one. Logan is the most obvious of the Linebackers to pick as a star, but Pratt did play great down the stretch.

I just think both Logan and especially ADG have much more upside than Germaine.