We’ve got 3 WRs that are probably worth 20+ million a year and we are likely losing 2

[impactplaya]

(10-01-2022, 01:22 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote:

They're not going to give Higgins 5yr/$130m and then give Chase 5yr/$175m the year after. And most certainly not when Burrow is about to get 5yr/$250m-10yr/$500m this offseason.

They're not going to keep all 3 and of the 3, Higgins is the easiest to replace. Much easier to replace too when you draft a 1st round WR with one of the picks and he will get a roughly 4yr/$15m contract.

Letting him walk is outright foolish. The trade market has shown that his value is a 1st that year and a 3rd the year after. Letting him walk and getting nothing in return is a terrible plan.

Also Boyd's value isn't really up there. Not many people trading big assets for an age 29 non-#1 WR that hasn't had a 1k season since 2019. Even if you did, you don't save anywhere near enough to keep all 3 of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins.

Why do you think Tee Higgins is so easy to replace?
The hit rate on WRs drafted  in the 1st 2 RDs 
Is less than 50% and even less when you expect 
Higgins replacement to duplicate his success.

[tms]

For me, no point thinking about next offseason. That would just drive you crazy. If it's a good team, they obviously won't be able to keep them all. Doesn't mean you shouldn't enjoy the honeymoon period.

I should hope Burrow will become an elevator by then. Like Manning, Brady, Favre, Rodgers... basically everyone before him. That's part of the job. He'll be getting $50 million for a reason. But for the time being we needn't worry about that.

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-01-2022, 07:58 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Why do you think Tee Higgins is so easy to replace?
The hit rate on WRs drafted  in the 1st 2 RDs 
Is less than 50% and even less when you expect 
Higgins replacement to duplicate his success.

Where did I say that he was so easy to replace? I said of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins that he was the easiest to replace. That's not the same as easy, but it's not as hard as a franchise QB or guy who was a 2nd Team All-Pro in his first and only season.

[Housh]

(10-02-2022, 12:26 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Where did I say that he was so easy to replace? I said of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins that he was the easiest to replace. That's not the same as easy, but it's not as hard as a franchise QB or guy who was a 2nd Team All-Pro in his first and only season.

Man idk

I don’t think we can just expect to draft another Tee even in the next 5 drafts. If THIS Tee came out in the 2023 NFL draft he’d be a top 10 player and the 1st WR off the board.


If you gave me an over under on how long it would take us to draft a guy this good I’d say around 5 drafts. No way we dip into the 2024 draft and find another Tee.





I’m also assuming we’re drafting pretty high

[*TheLeonardLeap*]

(10-02-2022, 01:21 AM)Housh Wrote: Man idk

I don’t think we can just expect to draft another Tee even in the next 5 drafts. If THIS Tee came out in the 2023 NFL draft he’d be a top 10 player and the 1st WR off the board.


If you gave me an over under on how long it would take us to draft a guy this good I’d say around 5 drafts. No way we dip into the 2024 draft and find another Tee.





I’m also assuming we’re drafting pretty high

Drake London*
Garrett Wilson*
Chris Olave*
Kyle Pitts
Ja'Marr Chase
Jalen Waddle
DeVonta Smith*
Rashod Bateman*
Amon-Ra St Brown*
CeeDee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr
Darnell Mooney
Marquise Brown
Deebo Samuel
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
Hunter Renfrow
DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Courtland Sutton
Christian Kirk*
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Mark Andrews

Guys in the last 5 drafts who have either had a 1k season or are currently on pace for 1k this season. 

There's a lot of guys who if they came out as a 3-year NFL Pro would be the top player taken at their position. Lol.. that's a weird statement. Yes, if the money was the same then everyone would take a 3-year pro over a rookie because one has already developed and the other hasn't, but the money isn't the same. One guy is going to get $25m/yr and the other is going to get $4m/yr.

Doesn't matter where the Bengals draft, matters where the person trading the picks drafts.

THIS Tee will cost $25m/yr. There's no conceivable way they can afford Burrow, Chase, and Higgins while still putting up a semi-competent roster around them.

The only team that has multiple WRs making $20m+/yr and a QB who isn't on a rookie contract are the Buccaneers. Tom Brady is doing way below market value contract shenanigans to squeeze in potential championships at the end of his career. I doubt Burrow is going to be okay making 1/2 or less of his QB market value in order to keep Higgins.

Also.. have we given up on the idea that Burrow can lift his WRs at all? Are we suddenly believing now he needs (regardless of the cost to the rest of the roster) the best WR trio in the league or he's garbage?

When you are successful and draft some good players, you're going to have to pay them, and you can't pay everyone so eventually you're going to have to lose some guys and you need to find a way to move on and keep winning. It's the way the league works. Is Burrow going to fall apart because he doesn't have the best WR trio in the league, or will he be like Mahomes, have one amazing one, and then make do with some solid other guys? If Burrow NEEDS a top paid RB, multiple top paid WRs, and a top paid OL, then is he really the guy we think he is?

[KillerGoose]

(10-02-2022, 03:09 AM)TheLeonardLeap Wrote: Drake London*
Garrett Wilson*
Chris Olave*
Kyle Pitts
Ja'Marr Chase
Jalen Waddle
DeVonta Smith*
Rashod Bateman*
Amon-Ra St Brown*
CeeDee Lamb
Justin Jefferson
Tee Higgins
Michael Pittman Jr
Darnell Mooney
Marquise Brown
Deebo Samuel
AJ Brown
DK Metcalf
Diontae Johnson
Terry McLaurin
Hunter Renfrow
DJ Moore
Calvin Ridley
Courtland Sutton
Christian Kirk*
DJ Chark
Michael Gallup
Mark Andrews

Guys in the last 5 drafts who have either had a 1k season or are currently on pace for 1k this season. 

There's a lot of guys who if they came out as a 3-year NFL Pro would be the top player taken at their position. Lol.. that's a weird statement. Yes, if the money was the same then everyone would take a 3-year pro over a rookie because one has already developed and the other hasn't, but the money isn't the same. One guy is going to get $25m/yr and the other is going to get $4m/yr.

Doesn't matter where the Bengals draft, matters where the person trading the picks drafts.

THIS Tee will cost $25m/yr. There's no conceivable way they can afford Burrow, Chase, and Higgins while still putting up a semi-competent roster around them.

The only team that has multiple WRs making $20m+/yr and a QB who isn't on a rookie contract are the Buccaneers. Tom Brady is doing way below market value contract shenanigans to squeeze in potential championships at the end of his career. I doubt Burrow is going to be okay making 1/2 or less of his QB market value in order to keep Higgins.

Also.. have we given up on the idea that Burrow can lift his WRs at all? Are we suddenly believing now he needs (regardless of the cost to the rest of the roster) the best WR trio in the league or he's garbage?

When you are successful and draft some good players, you're going to have to pay them, and you can't pay everyone so eventually you're going to have to lose some guys and you need to find a way to move on and keep winning. It's the way the league works. Is Burrow going to fall apart because he doesn't have the best WR trio in the league, or will he be like Mahomes, have one amazing one, and then make do with some solid other guys? If Burrow NEEDS a top paid RB, multiple top paid WRs, and a top paid OL, then is he really the guy we think he is?

I agree with the overall point of your post, but I have to point out that the list you provided doesn't mean much unless we have the rest of the context around it. You listed 23 wide receivers since 2017. Over that same time span, through the first four rounds, there have been 110 wide receivers drafted, or about a 23.6% success rate if we consider a 1k season the definition of success. I used the first four rounds because the latest draft round of any of the receivers was the 4th round (Amon Ra St. Brown). 

It is certainly possible to draft another Tee, but it shouldn't be the "expectation" which I think is what Housh was communicating. Tee is a potential upper echelon receiver in the NFL and replacing him successfully on the first try is unlikely. Possible, of course, but unlikely. Regardless, they will have to figure something out because I agree that they can't pay all of these guys and still field a competitive roster. Once Burrow signs his extension, they will need to start hitting on rookie contracts more often. 

[samhain]

(10-01-2022, 07:58 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Why do you think Tee Higgins is so easy to replace?
The hit rate on WRs drafted  in the 1st 2 RDs 
Is less than 50% and even less when you expect 
Higgins replacement to duplicate his success.

Think about the guys drafted in Tee's tier that year.  Reagor, Shenault, Mims.  Any of those guys even close to Tee's production in the first two years?  He's absolutely not going to be easy to replace.

[Sled21]

Not to mention most wr's coming.out of college don't really get good until year 3

[Bengalitis]

Teeggins and Chase must be kept, Boyd is aging and hasn't clicked as I hoped with Burrow as he did with Dalton. Mixon needs to be traded.

[Nicomo Cosca]

(10-02-2022, 01:58 PM)Bengalitis Wrote: Teeggins and Chase must be kept, Boyd is aging and hasn't clicked as I hoped with Burrow as he did with Dalton. Mixon needs to be traded.

No one is trading for Mixon.

[Housh]

(10-02-2022, 02:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: No one is trading for Mixon.

He’s a cut candidate so yeah i wouldn’t give any draft capital for him

[impactplaya]

Tee Higgins is a legit #1 WR masquerading as a #2
On this team. He Is a bona-fide top 15 WR in the league

[*Synric*]

Tee Higgins is going to be tough to keep but I'd like to see them try. Bengals do have a solid history of drafting WRs.

[Housh]

(10-02-2022, 02:51 PM)impactplaya Wrote: Tee Higgins is a legit #1 WR masquerading as a #2
On this team. He Is a bona-fide top 15 WR in the league

Ima just name names in no order and let’s see if we can fit Tee in the top 15. If anyone thinks he’s not top 15, name the 15 WRs better than him.

My rank in second column. Not saying this is the true skill rank but it’s who I’d take.


Davante Adams.
Deandre Hopkins.
Chris Godwin
Keenan Allen
Mike Evans
DK
Jamarr Chase
Stefan Diggs
Cooper Kupp
Justin Jefferson
Tyreke Hill
Terry McLauren
Mike Williams
Tyler Lockett
Deebo
OBJ
Ceedee Lamb
AJ Brown
Waddle
Amari Cooper
Michael Thomas
Diontae Johnson
DJ Moore
Hunter Renfrow
Boyd


Adams, Kupp, Hopkins, Tyreke, Chase, Jefferson, Diggs, Evans, Tee.

[Bengalitis]

(10-02-2022, 02:31 PM)Nicomo Cosca Wrote: No one is trading for Mixon.

Other teams have a right to make a boo boo.