Nothing is breaking the Bengals way this season

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(10-10-2022, 05:29 AM)Trademark Wrote: I don't know how winnable the Saints and Falcons games are, Cam Jordan is another dominant pass rusher and this team seems to struggle against those and Mariota is a mobile QB and this team seems to struggle against those too, also this team is winless against teams Dalton are on

Simply have to win those games. Neither are awful teams, but neither is primed for much this year. If we're a playoff team, we have to win both of those.

[Trademark]

(10-10-2022, 05:40 AM)TheCincinnatiKid Wrote: Simply have to win those games. Neither are awful teams, but neither is primed for much this year. If we're a playoff team, we have to win both of those.

I agree but I think they lose to the Saints sadly

[TheCincinnatiKid]

(10-10-2022, 06:58 AM)Trademark Wrote: I agree but I think they lose to the Saints sadly

Well at least if we lose next week we can just write the season off... silver clouds etc 

[Bengalbug]

(10-10-2022, 12:52 AM)Trademark Wrote: Lost two games by 3 and one by 2, this season just feels really weird, last season a lot of things went in the Bengals favor, this year it seems like the opposite is happening, next Sunday doesn't get any easier because the Saints have a nasty pass rush...

I had agreed, however….

I went back and looked at 2021.

Week 1 - win a one possession game - Vikings
Week 2 - lost a one possession game - bears (like the Steelers this year)
Week 4 - win a one possession game - jags
Week 5 - lost a one possession ot game - packers (we all remember that one)
Week 8 - lost a one possession game - Mike white, I mean Jets.
Week 14 - lost a one possession ot game- 9ers
Week 17 - win a one possession game. - chiefs

Through 5 weeks last year the bengals were 3-2
Through 5 weeks this year the bengals are 2-3

The biggest difference is not winning at least one of the one possession games.

I also looked at ppg for 2021 first five games vs 2022

2021 (first five ) OPPG - 22.6 (season 27.1)
2021 (first five) DPPG - 20 (season 22.1)

2022 OPPG - 21.6
2022 DPPG - 17.8

The offense is slightly behind 2021, but the defense is playing better.

Bengals are 2-3, but they (statistically) should be 3-2 or 4-1.

For what it’s worth, weeks 6-8 last year the bengals offense put up 34, 41 and 31 points.

Again, lots of similarities thus far, and a few 50/50 breaks has us feeling much differently.

[Bengalbug]

Unprecedented luck. I found an AP article from week 5 last year.

The Lions are the first team in NFL history to lose two games in the same season on game-winning field goals of at least 50 yards with no time left on the clock.

The bengals have lost two games in such a scenario (Steelers/cowboys), plus a close third.


I ran the odds of the three kickers in 50+, 50+ and 40+ situations and the chance of them all making it is 54.5%.


My take away is the bengals d, while it’s been great, can’t let todays NFL kickers have these opportunities. We (statistically) should have likely seen one miss so far. (I am considering 54.5 close to 50). Likely to jinx us here, but a similar situation should result in a miss.

But this is where analytics and results don’t tend to agree and we play the hindsight game.

[Bengalbug]

(10-10-2022, 12:07 PM)Bengalbug Wrote: I had agreed, however….

I went back and looked at 2021.

Week 1 - win a one possession game - Vikings
Week 2 - lost a one possession game - bears (like the Steelers this year)
Week 4 - win a one possession game - jags
Week 5 - lost a one possession ot game - packers (we all remember that one)
Week 8 - lost a one possession game - Mike white, I mean Jets.
Week 14 - lost a one possession ot game- 9ers
Week 17 - win a one possession game. - chiefs

Through 5 weeks last year the bengals were 3-2
Through 5 weeks this year the bengals are 2-3

The biggest difference is not winning at least one of the one possession games.

I also looked at ppg for 2021 first five games vs 2022

2021 (first five ) OPPG - 22.6 (season 27.1)
2021 (first five) DPPG - 20 (season 22.1)

2022 OPPG - 21.6
2022 DPPG - 17.8

The offense is slightly behind 2021, but the defense is playing better.

Bengals are 2-3, but they (statistically) should be 3-2 or 4-1.

For what it’s worth, weeks 6-8 last year the bengals offense put up 34, 41 and 31 points.

Again, lots of similarities thus far, and a few 50/50 breaks has us feeling much differently.

Just want to highlight the call out to the last two sentences. I should have bet this.

2021 week 6-8 bengals put up 34,41 and 31

Since this post, bengals have put up 30, 35 and we will see.

I guess it needs to be 41 for the same total points outcome, but I’d be happy with another 35.